SPORTS WAGERS
FORDHAM -10½ over La Salle
The first inclination here would be to grab the points because the Rams of Fordham probably haven’t been a double-digit favorite in conference play in 15 years. In fact, Fordham has usually been a double-digit pooch in conference play for years so when the oddsmakers make this Rams’ team such a big favorite, it caught our attention immediately. We’ll get back to the Rams in a second after we discuss the Explorers.
La Salle is 4-7 overall and 0-1 in conference play. They have played two tough opponents thus far, Villanova and Miami and lost them both by 29 and 46 points respectively. A 46-point loss is disturbing enough but the 29-point loss to ‘Nova might be even more disturbing. Although the Wildcats are highly ranked, they are ranked 276th-in defensive rebounding so losing by almost 30 points to them is a serious sign of trouble ahead. There are just two seniors on the Explorers and neither is impacting. La Salle’s four wins this season have come against Towson, Rider, Lafayette and Rowan. Among their defeats are a 13-point loss to Drexel, a 16-point loss to the Penn Quakers and a nine-point loss to Florida Gulf Coast. There are some weak teams in the A-10 that include George Mason and Saint Louis but the Explorers have the least talent and will likely finish in dead last.
Losing and Fordham is synonymous. The Rams have been an Atlantic-10 bottom feeder for years but the culture of that program is heading in the right direction for the first time in a very long while. There’s a new man in charge of the men’s basketball program at Fordham and his name is Jeff Neubauer, the former Eastern Kentucky coach for the past decade. We loved what coach Neubauer did at Eastern Kentucky, where the Colonels pressed relentlessly, contested every pass, forced gobs of turnovers, passed constantly and shot bushels of 3’s. And in bringing that hyper-aggressive style to the Bronx, Neubauer and his staff have supercharged Mandell Thomas, a standout point guard who endured 66 losses in his first three seasons with the Rams. With Thomas harassing the perimeter and grabbing steals on 4½ percent of possessions, Fordham ranks fourth in the NCAA in limiting opponents’ long-range shooting (26.1 percent shooting percentage on 3-point attempts) and sixth in forcing turnovers (25.5 percent of opponent possessions), both of which are huge turnarounds from 2014-15. The Rams’ out of conference schedule was exceptionally weak but that only adds to their value here because nobody is giving them any credit. The Rams are 0-1 in conference play but that loss occurred by just six points at George Washington and now this team is ready to grab an early conference win against the most beatable team in the conference. Fordham has always been an easy out but don’t sleep on this team this season, as they could be an Atlantic-10 spoiler and figure to put away weaker teams like the one they’ll face here.
MATT FARGO
Loyola Chicago vs. Illinois State
Play: Loyola Chicago +6
Illinois St. has opened the MVC season a perfect 2-0 with victories over Missouri St. and Drake, both of which have been picked to finish in the bottom half of the conference. The Redbirds now take on their first opponent that is a projected top half finisher even though Loyola-Chicago has dropped its first two conference games. Overall, the Redbirds have won and covered three straight games while conversely, the Ramblers have dropped three straight against the number and are 3-10 ATS on the season which is playing into this number. Loyola is in need of a victory to not fall too far back this early in the season and no one will be giving it a chance here with its 0-3 road record but this game will be closer than what this line may be saying. The points are definitely a premium here as we have two pretty bad offenses that are both ranked in the 300's in points scored. That also puts the Ramblers into a great situation as we play against favorites in a game involving two teams averaging between 63 and 67 ppg, after a win by six points or less. This situation is 84-45 ATS (65.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Despite the poor ATS numbers, the Ramblers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Nelly
Georgia - over Missouri
Georgia lost its SEC opener which ended a four-game win streak that included wins over solid ACC teams Georgia Tech and Clemson. Losing at Florida isn't a huge blow to the resume and the four losses on the season have all come in relatively close games vs. quality teams. Georgia has lost at home twice but they have also won the past four home games by double-digits. Missouri opens SEC play after back-to-back blowout wins over two of the worst teams in the nation but against the best six teams the Tigers have faced this season they are 0-6 with losses by 12, 24, 5, 36, 14, and 5. Missouri has not won a game away from home this season and last season eh Tigers lost by 25 in Athens. Georgia has posted outstanding defensive numbers this season as few teams have shot well against the Bulldogs and this is an incredibly young Missouri team with three freshman playing significant minutes who will make their SEC debut tonight. Georgia also appears to have a big size edge to create some matchup problems for the visitors and the deliberate pace for the Bulldogs should force some turnovers and bad shots from Missouri. This is a big number for Georgia but avoiding a 0-2 SEC start is critical for the team and Missouri has shown little sign that it can compete on the road vs. a quality team with a great defense.
Wunderdog
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois
Pick: Tennessee State -1
It wasn't all that long ago that the Tennessee State program was in shambles. They have never put out a great team, but have had their moments, and it looks like they have assembled as much talent and experience as they have since their 20 win season back in 2011. The Tigers are off to a robust 10-4 start on the season, and their most recent loss was just a five-point setback at Tennessee. Eastern Illinois has struggled all season long at a woeful 4-10. This is a team shooting just 42.7% on the season, and they have lost a lot of points at the not so charity stripe, connecting on just 62.5% of their free throws, and have been pounded on the glass to a -7 rebound margin per contest. Tennessee State has been vested on the defensive end, limiting their 14 opponents to under 40% shooting on the season. Make the play on Tennessee State.
Larry Ness
Stanford at Oregon St.
Pick: Oregon St.
Johnny Dawkins came to Stanford back in 2008-09 but he’s led the Cardinal to just one NCAA appearance in that span (2012-13), when the team reached the Sweet 16. However, last year's NIT championship was his SECOND during his tenure (also won in 2012). That said, Dawkins is WELL aware his wasn't hired at Stanford to win NIT titles. Realistically speaking, an NIT bid here in 2015-16 is about all the Stanford faithful can hope for. Guard Randle (19.6-3.3-3.0), swingman Brown (14.8-6.9-2.5) and center Nastic (13.4-6.5) have all moved on from last year's team.
Stanford comes into this game a modest 8-5, including 1-1 in the Pac-12 after an OT win against Utah and a one-point loss to Colorado last weekend at Maples Pavilion. 6-9 senior forward Rosco Allen (13.6-5.7) has been the team’s best player but the loss of the 6-8 Reid (12.9-7.1) who is out indefinitely with a leg injury is a HUGE blow, considering all the key losses from last year’s team. Stanford has played just ONE true road game this year, a 78-61 loss at St Mary’s, a game played nearly SIX weeks ago (Nov 22).
The Cardinal will face a 10-2 (1-0 in Pac 12 play) Oregon State team that is coming off its most complete performance of the season in a 70-57 victory against Oregon, a victory that followed a 13-day break since its last game. The Beavers feature one of the most exciting players in the nation in PG Gary Payton II, who comes in averaging 16.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Payton is just 12-for-28 from the floor in the last two games but is still shooting 53 percent on the season. Two freshman are coming off the bench and making big contributions, the 6-8 Tinkle (12.2-5.2), the coach’s son who had 19 vs Oregon and guard Thompson (9.5).
More than anything, this year’s Oregon St team is NOT the plodding team under former head coach Craig Robinson nor even the team Wayne Tinkle had at OSU in his first season last year (17-14). Last year’s Beavers averaged just 60.9 PPG (T-317th) on 42.2% shooting (32.3% on threes) but this year’s team is up to 74.5 PPG on 45.4% shooting, including 37.3% on threes.
Oregon St comes in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run and an Oregon St team not nearly as good last year beat a much better Stanford team here in Corvallis 81-72. the margin will be bigger, tonight.
Andrew Lange
Seton Hall at Villanova
Play: Over 66 1st Half
Villanova's offense looked like a well oiled machine in Big East wins over Xavier and Creighton. The Wildcats hit a combined 51-of-64 from two and 19-of-43 from three. They can score from all over the court and have an endless array of offensive weapons. Seton Hall has been serviceable on the offensive end with 83 and 78 point efforts in wins over Marquette and DePaul. Both games also featured a fair amount of pace with 80 and 72 possessions respectively. What I don't buy is any of Seton Hall's defensive numbers as multiple metrics indicate the schedule has been extremely favorable in terms of its opponent's offensive potency. In fact, six of their foes are currently averaging less than a point per possession. The Pirates allowed 1.09 ppp in Big East play last season which means we can put little stock into their current output of 0.94 (32nd nationally). Tonight serves as a massive step up in class considering Villanova ranks sixth in offensive efficiency despite struggling from beyond the arc to start the season. You do have to be concerned about Villanova's ability on the defensive end which can be elite. But with the first half total sitting at 66, if the Pirates can find a way to score close to 30, we have a good chance at cashing a ticket.
Kevin Rogers
Pacers at Magic
Pick: Mgic
The Pacers have lost seven of their last eight games on the road, as Indiana travels to Orlando tonight. The Magic return home from a horrible three game road trip, losing each game by double-digits at Washington, Cleveland, and Detroit. Orlando has been a solid home team this season, owning a 12-6 record at Amway Arena. Indiana has covered only twice in its last eight road contests, while scoring less than 100 points in regulation in five of their past six away games. I'll back Orlando to beat Indiana.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, plus the points against the Maryland Terrapins in Big Ten play.
True, there hasn't been much to cheer about when it comes to Rutgers basketball, which is staring a 10th consecutive losing season in the face.
But even as bad as things are, the Maryland Terrapins are not looking to expend that much energy against a team they can beat by 20 and be just as happy.
See, the Terps, who have just one loss on the season, travel to Wisconsin on Saturday, then go to Michigan next Tuesday. So once they get up big, the starters are resting and they'll have the reserves put this one to sleep.
Play Rutgers plus the points, as they get knocked around, but cover.
1* RUTGERS
Scott Delaney
The Cal Golden Bears are a much better team and play much more cohesive than the Oregon Ducks. It's really that simple. I've seen both play, in Las Vegas, and I like the makeup of this Cal team.
The Bears aren't as young as people think, they just run their offense through two freshmen. No biggie, though, because Ivan Rabb is a monster, who can shoot from the perimeter, or slash to the hoop with a very quick first step. The 6-foot-11 forward combines nicely with Jaylen Brown to form a strong 1-2 punch.
The Ducks have talent, too, but they don't play as organized, and that's frustrating for coach Dana Altman. This matchup is bad for the Ducks, as the Bears will take advantage on the perimeter and in the paint.
1* CALIFORNIA
Gabriel DuPont
Tonight's free play: Cleveland (-7) at WASHINGTON
The STORYLINE in this game today - Cleveland and LeBron hit the road for a tough game versus Washington and John Wall. And as much as I'd like to lend respect to the Wizards, I don't think they hang tonight. My free play is on the Cavaliers, as I have them winning this game by 11.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this game is the statement factor. This is the first game of a six-game junket for the defending Eastern Conference champions, and there's nothing better than starting an extended road trip off with a huge win.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Cavaliers will take advantage of slumping Washington, which has dropped three of its last four. The Wizards are dealing with numerous injuries, too, including Bradley Beal (leg), Nene Hilario (calf), Drew Gooden (calf), DeJuan Blair (knee) and Gary Neal (quad) - all of whom are out.
5* CAVALIERS
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. At the time of this writing, the Pelicans are actually laying 4 1/2 to 5 points in Vegas and offshore... and understandably so.
Dallas just went through a double OT battle with Sacramento last night and will have a lot of exhausted veterans tonight against a much younger, fresher team.
Plus, New Orleans has beaten Dallas twice in a row including their last win in Dallas a few nights ago.
Dallas used every last bit of energy it had in last night's double OT win and I can't imagine them extending Dirk or Chandler Parsons just for the sake of getting one regular season win.
It's not that Dallas doesn't have the talent to win this one SU, but considering they already have a tough enough time beating them at full strength, what's to give me any hope they can win when they're tired?
Take the Pelicans minus the points as your free play of the day.
3* NEW ORLEANS
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Hornets on the road over the Suns.
These teams are playing their second and final meeting this season, with Phoenix posting the win and cover in Charlotte back on December 14th.
Since that time, things have started to set on the Suns, as internal strife is the order of the day with this Phoenix team.
The results have not been pretty for Phoenix lately, as the Suns enter tonight riding a 9-game losing streak! With the points, things aren't much better, as the Suns are just 2-7 against the spread during their current slide.
Charlotte is on a 4 game slide of their own, with the last loss coming in Oakland against the mighty Warriors. The sledding tonight gets far easier for the Hornets who now stand at 17-17 on the season.
No dip below the .500 mark tonight for the visitors, Hornets to handle their business in the Valley of the Sun.
5* CHARLOTTE
Brad Wilton
Wednesday's comp play release is the Under in the Grizzlies-Thunder contest.
Both prior meetings between these West Conference rivals have played Over the total, but the fact remains the Under when these teams square off still stands at 4-2 the last 6 go-rounds.
Over the Grizzlies last 10 games played, the Under is 7-2-1, so one would think that tonight's meeting will see the scoring pace between the teams slowed just a little.
OKC is on a 4-1 Over run, but the Under still stands at 5-4 the last 9 Thunder games played.
KD is expect to miss another game with his broken toe, so let's look for this third series meeting between the teams to hold Low tonight in Oklahoma City.
3* MEMPHIS-OKLAHOMA CITY UNDER
DAVE PRICE
Portland Trail Blazers +4
The Portland Trail Blazers come into this game healthy and playing well. They have gone 4-2 in their last 6 games overall, which includes a 105-76 home win over Cleveland. Star PG Damian Lillard just returned to the lineup and will only help this team going forward. I think the Clippers are overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak coming in. But those six wins have come against the Lakers, Jazz, Wizards, Bobcats, Pelicans and 76ers, so it's not like they've done anything special. The home team has won each of the first 2 meetings between these teams this season, including a 102-91 win by the Blazers as identical 4-point dogs. Portland is 90-59 ATS in its last 149 games as a home dog of 6 points or less. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The Blazers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Utah @ San Antonio
Play: Utah +14½
The Spurs certainly have been red hot but this spread is a little out of hand. This is especially true when you consider that guard Tony Parker is expected to miss tonight's game. The Spurs veteran had a huge game (including 7 of 9 shooting) when these teams met last month in Utah. That was an embarrassing 118 to 81 home loss for the Jazz so, as you can imagine, revenge is on the minds of the Utah players heading into this one. Also, I certainly so no impetus for the Spurs wanting to run up the score in this one so the value is there for the Jazz plus the big points. Utah is an incredible 10-2-2 ATS this season when playing revenge. The Spurs have covered their first two games of the new year but they only went 11-15 ATS in January the prior two seasons and if they get the big lead here I see them slowing things down as they look ahead to another home game coming up on Friday.