JACK JONES
Boston Celtics -3
The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as only 3-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons tonight. This is a Boston team that is one of the most improved in the NBA this season, and one that has gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games coming in.
Conversely, the Detroit Pistons have been struggling here of late. They have gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. They should not be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers as only 3-point underdogs with the way they are playing right now.
Detroit is 11-26 ATS in road games with a total between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons. The Pistons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games overall. The Celtics are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games following a win.
RICKY TRAN
Pistons vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -3½
The Celtics have won 5 of their last 7 and they're coming off a 103-94 at Brooklyn Monday as they got revenge for a loss to the Nets two days earlier. They're 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The Pistons are off a 115-89 win against Orlando home in Detroit, but they're just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games and 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings with Boston. The Celtics have lost each of their last two games home at TD Garden, to the lowly Lakers and Nets, and they should be motivated to put up a show for the home crowd tonight.
BRANDON LEE
Grizzlies vs. Thunder
Play: Under 198½
Memphis has found their form defensively of late, as they have held each of their last 3 opponents to 92 points or less. With Kevin Durant not expected to play, I look for that strong defense to continue on the road tonight. I also look for Oklahoma City to bring the defensive intensity, as this is a prime time game on ESPN, which also likely has the total inflated for a little extra value. UNDER is 12-2 in Memphis' last 14 road games after 5 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or worse and 11-1 in the Thunder's last 12 after scoring 100+ points in 3 straight games.
WORLD WIDE SPORTS
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi St
Play: Texas A&M -7
The Aggies are allowing only 64.6 points per game on the season, which is tied for 44th in the nation. Texas A&M forces 15.5 turnovers and records 7.9 steals per game. Texas A&M 3-0-1 ATS in their last four overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road vs. teams with winning home record.
The Bulldogs are currently tied for 215th in the nation in scoring defense as they have given up 72.9 points per game this season. Opposing teams are hitting 44.6 percent from the field against Mississippi State. Mississippi State is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Toronto
The Raptors are coming off an embarrassing 122-100 loss in Cleveland. As hard as it may be to believe, they actually shot the ball remarkably well in the first half, only to succumb to a great performance by the Cavs' Kyrie Irving. Their own defense has faltered the L2 games, but fortunately Brooklyn is not a worthy adversary.
Toronto had been one of the better defensive teams in the league prior to losing the last two games. Part of the problem is that DeMarre Carroll did not play against Cleveland. Now words comes down that he is about to undergo surgery. This is not good for the Raptors' long-term fortunes, but again, tonight they should be just fine. Brooklyn averages just 97.1 PPG and has been one of the worst teams in the league all season (I have them 28th in my latest power rankings).
The Raptors still have DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 25.8 PPG his L10, and Kyle Lowry (three straight double doubles). Brooklyn not only is dealing with the loss of PG Jarrett Jack (ACL) for the seasn, but has also dropped seven in a row at home following Monday's 103-94 setback against Boston. Toronto is 0-2 vs. the Nets this year, so I expect them to take this game very seriously.
SPS Investors
Texas Tech vs. Iowa St.
Pick: Iowa State
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have certainly made a name for themselves this season opening up the year to an impressive11-1 overall record, however that record will surely be tested in this contest as this will be by far the most difficult matchup the Red Raiders have had this season.
The Iowa State Cyclones are 10th in the nation in scoring, averaging 85.8 points per game this season. They are also an incredibly efficient team shooting the ball as they hit nearly 51 percent from the floor, which is tied for 6th best in the nation. The Cyclones have also been dangerous from beyond the arc, hitting an average of 8.3 threes per game on the year while they shoot 35.9 percent from three point range.
Iowa State has gone against a slightly more difficult schedule than Texas Tech so far this season and is coming off a hard fought loss against the Oklahoma Sooners in their last contest. Now back home in Ames, a place where they enjoy an extremely big home court advantage, we believe the Cyclones will be looking to get back on the winning track while taking out their frustrations on a somewhat over-rated Texas Tech team. Iowa State has shown the ability to blowout quality teams at home fairly consistently in recent years and the fact that the odds makers had opened this number as high as they did against a team that only has 1 loss on the year clearly shows how they believe this game will turn out. The sharp money is on the home team in this one.
Other notable facts to consider:
Texas Tech is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road.
Iowa State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six against the Big 12.
Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last five after a straight up loss.
Harry Bondi
GEORGE WASHINGTON (-9.5) over St Louis
St. Louis has really struggled this year and the oddsmaker has not caught up to just how bad the Billikins are. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games and have been non-competitive going 1-8 ATS. They started A-10 conference play January 2nd by getting demolished by URI and we look for GW to do the same tonight. When playing teams ranked in Harry Bondi's Top 65 this year they have lost by an average of 22.75 points. They are not a talented team and don't have the roster depth to keep it close with a good George Washington squad. St. Louis ranks last in the A10 in offensive rebounds and turnovers and shots it at a horrid 30% clip. Colonials roll at St Louis tonight.
Dave Essler
Evansville +10
I know, I know - the Shockers just don't lose at home and normally win by A LOT. The last team to beat them here - Evansville. I have no idea what the line will do. I'll take double digits now. This is the best team the Purple Aces have fielded in over a decade, maybe ever - and these two teams should battle it out for the MVS regular season title, so this is an very important early game. Of course the Shockers know that too, but this is perhaps the most vulnerable they've been since Gregg Marshall took over. They played a little tougher non-conference schedule than they typically do - but a Witchita State team with five losses to this point is just rare. They lost to every good team they played (I don't count UNLV at home, a six point win) in there, except for Utah, which was a revenge game from an overtime loss at Utah last season. The point is that before we get to stats, E'ville has to be coming in here with confidence. The Shockers still have holdovers Van Fleet and Baker - but they have far less scoring options than in the past - the caveat here is that Freshman Markis McDuffie stays in check - he CAN be a difference maker. E'ville the one of the most experienced teams in the NCAA (8th) and does do most of their scoring inside as well as get to the line a ton, and shooting almost 72% from the stripe. The key for them is Mockevicious staying out of foul trouble - because he can and will cause problems for whoever Marshall decides to use on him. I like E'ville's grit - they don't quit - they came back from way down at HT to push Arkansas, they beat a decent Fresno team on the road, and came back from a HT deficit to bear Murray State on the road. The Shockers will play slower and do what they do - shoot three pointers - but defending the perimeter is a strength of E'ville's defense. The Shockers have had more shots blocked this year than usual (a lot) and E'ville has been good at blocking them - so, I am not saying Evansville is the better team, but they CAN win this game if the Shockers are not on it, and SHOULD stay within ten points.
Other Games
I know the bettors seem to like Missouri and I get that with UGA coming off the Florida loss - but Missouri is too young to start taking on the road yet. Under, if you have to bet the early game.
Some $ coming back in on G-Tech, but honestly those are two teams I rarely get right. If anything I lean over simply because both teams have experience and don't turn it over - that's a good start.
I am seriously considering Wake Forest. That arena is tough for ANYONE to play in and of course Duke brings out the best in everyone.
If Devin Robinson is playing for the Gators I might consider them - but it DOES go against something I don't do, which is take sh*tty FT shooting teams (UF) on the road to cover short numbers. I just hate the fact that UT isn't likely to get many second chance with their length disadvantage.
Eastern Michigan seems to be the "sharp" side and it's because they've played a GREAT non-conference schedule. I cannot disagree here.
George Mason at home getting points is always worth a look. Honestly, Dave Mason - their new HC from Bucknell - WILL have them playing well and they're already playing better defense so I do like the under here a fair bit.
Drew Martin
Air Force at Wyoming
Play: Air Force +5.5
Air Force heads to Wyoming to take on the Cowboys in a Mountain West matchup pinning two very different approaches. Wyoming has fallen on tough times of late dropping their last four games as it sports the forth youngest roster in the nation. They are welcoming in a 10-4 Air Force team who has not lost in Laramie since the 1998 season. Air Force has transitioned its offense a bit of late in response to the almost strictly zone defense it has seen. Since the switch forward Hayden Graham has been flashing to the free throw line and the Falcons have been running their offense through him. Graham has excelled in his increase role averaging 15.4 ppg and 7.8 rpg. Wyoming defensively ranks amongst the bottom nationally in steal percentage; they just cannot turn anyone over and there’s no reason to think that would change tonight against a Falcons squad that typically values possessions. This is Wyoming first home game in nearly a month but even accounting for the uptick in play, there simply isn’t much of any difference between these two squads. Better times are on the horizon for Larry Shyatt’s squad but they shouldn’t be laying this type of price at this point in the season. Take the points with the road underdog.
Bruce Marshall
Stanford +6
Coming up empty at Maples Pavilion last weekend vs. Utah and Colorado is an ominous sign for Johnny Dawkins' Stanford, which now has an uphill climb to get back into the Big Dance at-large discussion. The recent absence of injured F Reid Travis (13 ppg) has been a minus for Dawkins. But the Tree still has four other DD scorers, and emerging 6-9 soph Michael Humphrey (11 ppg TY; but 15.3 ppg past four) has been picking up some of the slack in Travis' absence. The Cardinal have mostly owned OSU in recent years, and they might be catching the Beavers at the right time, as Wayne Tinkle's crew celebrates a rousing weekend win over Oregon.
GoodFella
Cavs / Wizards Over 103 1st Half
I would play this up to 104 fwiw. Both teams prefer to play uptempo and Kyrie has now has his minutes increased a bit and I like that too for this Cavs offense. I have this 1st half hitting in the 106-108 range and have fired on the OVER 1st half here. Best of luck if you choose to play along with us here.