Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota TimberwolvesSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Phoenix Suns +7FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Timberwolves qualify in a very simple but powerful system that tells us to play against them here. The system says to Play AGAINST an NBA home team after a game on the road in which they were called for fewer than fifteen personal fouls. These home teams have a record of 5-23 ATS since March 2013 including 0-5 ATS the last five qualifying contests. Play the Suns
Rickie Robbins
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Washington Wizards vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: Washington Wizards +130
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The New Orleans Pelicans return home to face John Wall and the Washington Wizards from the Big Easy.
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Head to head, the Wizards are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Orleans and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings while the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Wizards on the other hand are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 0 days rest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, but just 13-28 ATS in their last 41 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
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Neither the New Orleans Pelicans or Washington Wizards have been in sparkling form in the New Year as the both teams have dropped three of their four matches. The Pelicans have been on the road since New Year's day and their only victory came in Boston as they held on for a 95-92 victory. The Wizards, who won five of six to close 2013, dropped their first three games of the New Year, which were all at home by the way. They are however, coming off a 97-83 win in Charlotte last night, running away with things in the second half.
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Now things aren't all that bad for these two teams as New Orleans has won and covered in four straight at home against the likes of Portland, Denver and Memphis. On the other hand, the Wizards have won and covered in five of their last six on the road and they are 11-5 against the spread away from home on the season.
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I don't want to sit on the fence, but this game could go either way. The one thing that stands out at me is that the Pelicans are coming off a four-game road trip and not only that, 10 of their last 12 games have been on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if New Orleans shows a bit of fatigue tonight, which is the main reason I'm taking the Wizards and the points in this one. The Wizards did play last night as well, but they are playing much better on the road than at home anyway.
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St Peters vs. FairfieldFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Fairfield -4FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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On Wednesday, Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like St. Peter's, a below average offensive team, scoring 63-67 points a game, against a horrible offensive team like Fairfield (63 or less PPG), after a loss by six points or less. The college basketball free play has been money in this exact situation with a 28-6 ATS record the past five years!
Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah at WashingtonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Huskies (9-6) split their opening conference week on the road by beating Arizona State before losing to the number one ranked team in the nation Arizona by a 71-62 score. But now Washington returns home where they are 7-2 -- and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
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Utah (12-2) will be playing just their second game away from their home court this season which makes them vulnerable in this spot. Furthermore, while the Utes have covered the point spread in seven of their eight boarded games this season, this actually places them into an empirical "play-against" angle that has been 64% effective over the last five seasons. Teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range who have covered the point spread in six of seven of their last eight games -- now facing a team with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range -- have then failed to cover the point spread in 121 of the last 186 situations where these conditions applied. Take Washington minus the points in this one.
Will RogersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Montreal vs. PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MontrealFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Flyers managed to eke out another victory on the road in a close game in New Jersey last night, but you have to wonder when their luck is going to run out.
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They are back home tonight, playing their first game back from a very successful road trip, hosting the Habs, who are just three points back of division leaders Boston in the Atlantic.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Situational/Motivational - The Flyers won five of six games on their recent road trip, three of those in post-regulation play. They are long overdue for a let down, and we could see complacency set in tonight. The Habs come in looking to close the gap with Boston, and should be plenty motivated to steal these points.
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2: Fatigue - Playing on back-to-back nights is tough at the best of times, but even more so when coming off a stretch playing six games in 10 days, all on the road. The Habs meanwhile should be fresh, coming off a win at home over Florida on Monday.
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3: X-Factor - Max Pacioretty leads the Habs in scoring, and he's been hot recently, with seven points in last four games. He's also scored six point in his last four meetings with Philadelphia.
Nick ParsonsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgetown vs. ProvidenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: GeorgetownFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This isn't a classic Georgetown team but one that is good enough to handle this not very deep Providence outfit on the road. The Hoyas have won eight straight in the series including the last three here, all by 9+ points. The Friar reserves are 351st (second to last) in minutes played. Look for the tough physical guests to wear down the home team and win going away.
Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raptors are off a very low-scoring game last night. That was at Indiana, against the stingy Pacers though.
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Tonight, they’ll be facing a Detroit team which allows 102.1 points per game and which allows opposing teams to 46.7% of their shots. (That number climbs above 48% in the Pistons’ last five games.)
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As for the Raptors, they allow more than 99 points per game at home, allowing opposing teams to hit 47% from the field here.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
After having trouble doing so, the Raptors should be determined to score here. Note that the “over” is 3-1 the last four times that they scored 85 or less in their previous game.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Meanwhile, the Pistons have seen the “over” go 7-2 the last nine times that they played the second of back-to-back games, 5-1 since the start of December. Take a look at the Over.
Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. Oklahoma St.FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We’ve seen Texas hang tough away from home, gutting out tough road wins at Temple and North Carolina; blowing out DePaul and hanging tough with BYU for the full 40 minutes at the Sprint Center in KC.
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Texas is not a team to lay points with, as we saw in their home loss to Oklahoma on Saturday– they seem to play up or down to their level of competition. But they covered wire-2-wire in both previous tries as an underdog away from home; a track record that comes into play again tonight.
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Texas has extraordinary talent even though they’re young, with five guys averaging in double figures. They’ve got a defensive mindset, holding foes to 39% shooting for the season. And the Longhorns are massive in the low post with Cameron Ridley, Jonathan Holmes, Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert all taking up space; ranked among the Top 5 teams in the country in rebounding margin.
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The Longhorns bounced back nicely from their pre-Christmas home loss to Michigan State, annihilating Rice in their next game. And frankly, neither the betting markets nor the statistical metrics have been overly impressed with Rick Barnes squad this year, leaving the Longhorns as a real potential ‘value’ team moving forward even after that loss to the Sooners.
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Oklahoma State has been blowing out teams in Stillwater from Day 1 this year. That leaves Travis Ford’s squad laying too big of a price as the competition stiffens considerably.
Jimmy Boyd
Air Force +6½
These two teams are headed in opposite directions right now. Air Force has won five of their last six games, and they are 4-1 ATS during that span. They face a Fresno State team that has lost five of their last six games. The Bulldogs have been a great team to fade recently. They have posted a 2-6 ATS record in their last seven games. The biggest problem for the Bulldogs this season has been inconsistency. I expect Fresno State to struggle against the Falcons who average 73.7 points per game this year. Fresno State has been soft defensively allowing 72.7 points per game, and that puts a lot of value on Air Force as such a large underdog.
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Mountain West opponents. Fresno State comes into this matchup with a 37-61 ATS record at home when facing a good shooting team that is making over 45 percent of their attempts from the field. They are 17-36 ATS at home when their opponent makes over 37 percent of their three-point attempts. Air Force is averaging 48.6 percent from the field when playing on the road, and they are making an impressive 41 percent of their three point attempts in those games. I think their is potential for the Falcons to win this game outright, and they should easily keep this matchup within the six points we are being spotted.
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Pistons vs. RaptorsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 197FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Strong release on the under in this spot between the Pistons and Raptors as both are coming off of games last night and had to travel thru customs in Canada which makes for a long night so I look for 2 tired teams entering tonight's game which will make for shots coming up short in this scenario Plus the money movement for this game also indicates a play on the under as the public is on the over with 67% of all bets placed - yet the odds makers have already started to lower this total meaning some sharp money has come in on the under. Under this posted total the play here.
River City SharpsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's get on this one quickly. If you haven't had the chance to see Texas A&M yet this season...you're not missing much! They are not very good, don't let the record fool you! Arkansas comes into this game at 11-2 on the year while the Aggies are 9-4, with no good wins on the season. Arkansas has wins over a good Minnesota team and Clemson. Arkansas uses Mike Anderson's pressure defense and we expect them to really create problems with the A&M guards. The Razorbacks are averaging 87.2 ppg while Texas A&M is averaging 69.6 ppg. Arkansas will also have the advantage from the free throw line and the glass. While we understand that Arkansas has traditionally been a poor road favorite, we think Anderson has a different team this year than can get this done. We like the Razorbacks to take care of business in their SEC opener.
EZWINNERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Harvard +4.5 & +170FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams are going in opposite directions. Uconn is 11-3 on the season and won nine straight games to start the season but since then they have lost three out of five games overall and back to back losses at Houston and SMU. During this rut the Huskies offensive production had declined and they have not been as strong on the glass. Senior gaurd Shabazz Napier's production has been inconsistant and other players have not been stepping up. Harvard enters this game red hot at 13-1 riding a nine game winning streak. The Crimson's only loss this season was by eight points at #15 ranked Colorado. Harvard is getting big time play out of guard Wesley Saunders who was named Ivy League co-player of the week on Monday for the third time this season. These two teams have one common opponent this year as they both played Boston College. Harvard beat the Eagles 73-58 while the Huskies escaped with a 72-70 win. I like the Crimson to win this game straight up.
Bryan Power
Phoenix vs. Minnesota
Pick: Phoenix
I just played the T'wolves and won easily on Monday as they blew out the Sixers 126-95 on the road. In my analysis for that game, I (again) made the case the Minnesota is far better than their SU record (currently .500) as they have a point differential of +4.8 per game, which is indicative of a team that should have a record that's closer to 10 games above the proverbial "Mendoza Line."
That being said, this seems like an overlay against a Phoenix Suns team that has cleaned up as underdogs this season, no? One of the biggest surprises in all of basketball, Phoenix is 15-4 ATS taking points this season, including 11-3 ATS on the road. They did lose as favorites in Chicago last night, but were clearly overvalued. Strengthening my case here is the fact Phoenix hasn't dropped back to back games since early December. While the Suns won't win tonight, I believe they will stay within the number. They are 9-3 ATS off a SU loss and 7-1 ATS off a game where they failed to cover this year.
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Phoenix Suns at Minnesota TimberwolvesSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Phoenix SunsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Too many points to be laying tonight, and we'll grab the points with the visiting Suns who have played quite well of late. Suns have been under the radar but have reeled off 11 wins in their last 15 games, including five outright wins as underdogs. Minnesota is a .500 team and not worthy of being listed as this high of a favorite right now, and while they may win this game outright we don't look for this game to end in a blowout. Suns are 11-3 as a road underdog and while they are averaging 103 ppg, they certainly won't be fazed by Minnesota's preferred up-tempo style. Take the points.
John RyanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics at Los Angeles ClippersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Los Angeles ClippersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the Clippers will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a series of projections that have fared very favorably for the Clippers and has worked against the Celtics. SIM projects that Clips will have at least 4 more free throw attempts; Celts will have between 10 and 15 offensive boards; Clips will make 39 to 42% of their three-point shot attempts; will allow Boston to score 87 to 92 points; will force Boston into 13 to 17 turnovers. In past games, 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when they attempt 4 to 9 less free throws than opponents in a game this season; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 42% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Take the Los Angeles Clippers.