Jack Jones
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Brooklyn Nets +6½
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The Golden State Warriors are the hottest team in the league right now. They have won 10 straight games heading into tonight's showdown with the Brooklyn Nets. As a result, they are way overvalued, and now is the time to fade them.
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The Warriors are in the toughest spot an NBA team can be in tonight. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, all of which have come on the road. This is a tired team right now, and one that will not have the legs under them to cover this 6.5-point spread.
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Quietly, Brooklyn has turned things around over the past week. It started with Joe Johnson's game-winner at Oklahoma City in a 95-93 win as a 12-point underdog. The Nets returned home and have won two straight over Cleveland (89-82) and Atlanta (91-86) to put together a nice three-game streak. They come in on a day of rest and will be the more energized team tonight.
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Plays on home underdog (Brooklyn) off a home win in January games are 49-20 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day of rest. Brooklyn is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 vs. Pacific Division foes. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Toledo at Western MichiganFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ToledoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tod Kowalczyk has turned things around at Toledo in a very short time. He took over a team which had won four games and could do no better than match that win total in his first season. However, after winning 19 and 15 games the last two seaons, the Rockets opened this season 12-0, before losing a well-played game in Lawrence to Kansas 93-83, on Dec 30 (Jayhawks shot 56.2%).
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This marks Toledo's first time back on the court since the loss to Kansas and it also marks Toledo's MAC opener. Western Michigan is 7-5, including 5-1 at home, where the Broncos have averaged 84.2 PPG. However, this is BY FAR WMU's biggest test and after beating a 15-win Toledo team twice last season, the Broncos figure to be in big trouble, here. Brown (18.9) is a quality guard, joined by Richie (7.8) and Klein (6.1) in the backcourt. The 6-11 Whittington (15.1-8.9) is a solid player and the 6-5 Tava (11.9-5.4) a good small forward.
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While WMU may yet battle Toledo for "Best in the West" in the MAC, I don't think so. Toledo has an excellent starting-five with 6-4 gaurd Pearson (16.1-4.8) leading the way, joined on the perimeter by swingman Drummond (14.6-4.5) and PG Brown (12.9-6.9 APG). Up front, it's the 6-6 Weatherspoon (11.1-5.7) and the 6-9 Boothe (10.8-4.8). Reserves are guards Williams (7.9) and Lauf (4.1-4.5) plus forward Smith (5.7).
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Toledo averages 86.0 PPG on 49.5% shooting and after losing twice to WMU last year, "gets it right" in this one.
Tony KarpinskiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State Warriors vs. Brooklyn NetsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Brooklyn Nets +6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden St is the hottest team in the NBA and played last night. They are looking to get a 7 game sweep on their road trip for the 1st time ever! Fatigue-laden Golden State concludes its road swing with its seventh away contest in 11 days. Brooklyn is tough at home and the Nets have allowed 87.0 points per game and a 41.5 field-goal percentage during their unbeaten start to 2014, far lower than their season marks of 101.1 and 45.5. Look for a tight defensive game here and take the Nets +6.5 here tonight.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington +122 over NEW ORLEANSFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Difficult spot for the Pelicans in that they return home from a four-game trip in which they closed the trip with games in Indiana and Miami. New Orleans lost by 17 and 19 points respectively. Psychologically, those two blowout losses can’t feel too good in terms of measuring how they stack up against the elite teams in the East. Additionally, the schedule and including that aforementioned trip has been brutal for the Pelicans. New Orleans has played 12 games since December 17 and over that span they have not played consecutive home games. The sequence was as follows: five games on the road, one at home, one on the road, one at home, four on the road. This now becomes the 13th straight game in which the Pelicans have had to travel to play their next game. Eric Gordon has scored 20 points or more in only six of his 29 games, a pretty rough number for a max-contract shooting guard and he’s getting to the line about as half as often as he did when he was a Clipper. Throw in the fact that Ryan Anderson is out and that the team has to be exhausted and this host has little appeal as a the favorite here.
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The Wizards stock is way down after a just completed 0-3 home stand. They lost to Dallas despite holding Dirk Nowitzki to nine points on 3-of-14 shooting. They fell to Toronto after being outscored 36-16 in the third quarter. And they were blown out by the Warriors even though Stephen Curry managed just 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting. They also lost by an average of 13 points but that’s because they were so cold from the field. The defense did its job by containing two big-name players. Washington subsequently went into Charlotte last night and whacked the Bobcats by 14 and they have a great chance to do the same thing to a Pelicans team that figures to be running on fumes.
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WICHITA STATE -17 over Illinois StateSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We usually don’t get involved in these types of games but this one should be a complete blowout of 25 points or more. Illinois State is coming off a season in which it led the Missouri Valley in points per game and finished third in both points per possession and effective field goal percentage. That was then, this is now. Mr. Everything, forward Jackie Carmichael (17.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game) graduated. So did guard Tyler Brown (a team-leading 18.1 points a contest) and big man John Wilkins. Zeke Upshaw, Johnny Hill and Jon Ekey transferred, and Bryant Allen was kicked off the team. To fill these voids, Illinois State added nine -- yes you read that correctly -- new players. Simply put, head coach Dan Muller is starting completely fresh this season. The Redbirds leading scorer is averaging 14 points per game. Nine of their 12 players are averaging fewer than eight points per game and that’s after their 125th ranked strength of schedule. On the road, Illinois State has a 38-point loss to VCU and a 14-point loss against the San Francisco Dons and this might be their toughest test yet.
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Wichita State shocked the college basketball community a season ago with the improbable march to the Final Four, and now Wichita State is 15-0. Sure, the Shockers haven’t beaten anyone in the Top 25, but still … 15 straight remains 15 straight. This year’s squad might actually be better team than last season's squad that boasted Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead. Cleanthony Early and Ron Baker are both terrific players and Fred VanVleet has stepped in and made people in Wichita forget about Armstead. These guys could roll through the Valley and enter the NCAA tournament with a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Last season at home, the Shockers defeated the Redbirds by 15 points and this year’s Redbirds possess a fraction of the talent of last year’s team. The Shockers and HC Gregg Marshall do not take teams lightly and that plays a big part when laying this type of lumber.
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PROVIDENCE +116 over GeorgetownFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hoyas come in with a 10-3 record but more importantly they are 2-0 in the Big East after wins against St. John’s and DePaul. Combined, that pair is 17-13 overall but they’re 0-5 in the conference. The Hoyas have played just one true road game this season and they were clobbered in Kansas by 22 points. They also lost to Northeastern and Oregon on a neutral court. Georgetown is an overvalued outfit. Its best win this season was by four points over VCU. Its other wins came against extremely weak competition that includes High Point, Florida International, Lipscomb, Elon, Colgate and Wright State. Despite that, the Hoyas rank 198th in rebounds and 107th in points scored. Even those numbers are skewed.
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The Friars have not been impressive this year. After starting the year 6-0 against a bunch of weaklings, Providence has gone 4-5 since. They are also 0-2 in the conference with losses to UMass and Villanova, the latter by 30 points. However, both conference games were on the road. At UMass, the Friars lost by a bucket in OT and three days later they lost in OT again to Seton Hall. The Villanova loss came after two extremely intense OT losses. Providence is 7-1 at home. They have four guys averaging double figures and none of them have gotten hot so far. PC has a potentially potent pack of scorers, including reigning Big East scoring champ Bryce Cotton, who is averaging 20.2 points per game this year. The Friars understand the magnitude of this game. To start the conference slate 0-3 would be difficult to overcome. They now get a beatable Hoyas team that they always seem to play their best against. The home side is 8-1 ATS the spread in this series and Georgetown has not looked sharp when they’re not at home. The small number (Georgetown -2) says the oddsmakers love the Friars chances and that’s how we’ll play it.
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Pass NHLFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tom BartonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Mexico vs WyomingFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New Mexico -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lobos are 10-3 on the year with a few impressive wins on their schedule so far but the question is can they win in a true road game. The Lobos have played just one true road game so far this season, against rival New Mexico State, and now even with their great start peopel are doubting them. This will be a quality road win to end the doubts. New Mexico has won 6 straight against Wyoming so this isn't unfamiliar territory and even won in each of the 3 meetings head to head last season. The Lobos are as good as that squad this year averaging almost 78 per game and pulling in over 40 boards. Their size is just too much for this Wyoming team. The Cowboys are putting in just 68 per game but the big stat difference is they are getting just 31 boards per game. That is a huge difference on the stat sheet that qill turn out to be the difference in the game here. This team has lost 3 of it's last 5 overall and I don't see them breaking through against a superior Lobos team.
NHL PredictionsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rangers / Blackhawks Over 5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New York is coming off a home shootout loss vs Columbus with a 4-3 final score. The Rangers have been playing some high scoring games lately with totals of 7, 3, 7, 8 and 7 over their lsat 5 games. They've gotten 35+ shots on goal in 6 of their last 8 games overall as well. Chicago leads the league in goals per game with 3.62 per game, while giving up 2.62 against. Over their last 7 games they've had 4 games with 7+ goals scored total, and of the other 3 games two had totals of 5. Henrik Lundqvist will start for New York tonight and he is battling the puck lately. He has lost 4 of his last 6 starts and he has given up 3 or more goals against in 9 of his last 10 starts. In two starts since returning from injury Blackhawks starter Corey Crawford has allowed 3 goals against in each. Note that the OVER is 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 overall, 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs Western Conference opponents, and 3-0-2 in their lsat 5 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or higher. The OVER is 7-1 in the Blackhawks last 8 vs Eastern Conference opponents. With two teams who are getting a lot of scoring opportunities lately I like the value on the OVER here tonight.
Winderdog
Akron at Ball State
Pick: Akron -5.5
The Akron Zips were a strong team a year ago that won the MAC and played in the NCAA Tournament. They finished 26-7 on the season, but lost some key components to that team. They were able to develop enough depth to carry a pretty good team into this season. They come into this contest at 8-5, and own a win against the PAC-12's Oregon State on a neutral floor. Ball State has had some shinning moments in the MAC, but unfortunately none have come recently. The Cardinals are just 3-8 on the season with two of their three wins coming vs. non-Div-1 opponents. Ball State is just 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 at home against a team with a losing road record. Akron just has more talent, and more options here. Play on the Zips.
Joe Gavazzi
Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -5½
Pure momentum play on the basis of current form. True that the Raptors enter off consecutive losses, but those were both covers against Indiana (a 7 point loss) and Miami (a 5 point loss). Despite that pair of competitive defeats, coinciding with the Rudy Gay trade, the Raptors are 9-4 SU, 11-2 ATS. Credit a defense that has allowed 93/43. Detroit is at the other end of the spectrum at 1-7, 0-5 SU ATS following last night’s 4 point loss at the Knicks. Fair price with the super- surging Raptors.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves -8
With a chance to move above .500, Minnesota will be all business when it takes the floor against a Phoenix squad it has owned of late. The Timberwolves have won the last two meetings by an average of 21.5 points, and another rout is likely considering how well the offense has been performing. Minnesota ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring with 107.4 points per game. It is averaging 108.7 ppg at home. Phoenix has had a fantastic season to this point, but I'm not sold. The Suns are on a 17-31 ATS slide versus teams like Minnesota that have outscored the opposition by an average of 3.0 points per game or more. Lay the points.
Greg Shaker
Harvard / UConn Under 136
The Line: Opening number here of 136.5 and a quick move down to the current level prior to be WA. I would expect this number to remain stable throughout the betting period, maybe drift up a bit, and spike one way or the other late if the number gets out of line.
Why We Bet It: It's all about Defense here on UConn's home court and you can best bet that even though this is not a conference game, these guys are not taking Harvard lightly and will make a strong effort to limit quality outside looks. They have certainly been able to do that this year with other teams coming here, limiting all comers to 36.5% shooting and 28.7% from outside of the arc. We have seen a reasonably low pace from Harvard this year and most recently much less tempo over their last 4 and 5 of 6 played. UConn has a perfect 5-0 UNDER this year at this venue and they are also 7-1 UNDER their last non-conference game. UNDER has also been the Rule when Harvard plays quality squads over the last few years, especially when they have been the Dog. Most Trends don't mean Squat, these do. We have 131.1 for a Fair Number here
Biggest Concerns: As always when playing Unders there is the chance that we could see a 3 possession point differential toward the end of the contest. That most always means fouls and both of these teams do hit those at a high rate. Other than that there are no major concerns here..
Added Notes: You can play this one down to 133.5 based on my number..
AC Dinero
Wisc Milwaukee vs. Oakland
Play: Wisc Milwaukee +7
Big number for a team that doesn't play defense like Oakland, who gives up 48% from the floor. They have been hot shooting the ball over the past 5 games. Look for that to revert back to the mean. Wisconsin Milwaukee has been a little cold from the floor over the past 5 games. Look for that to improve. Oakland has a few injuries, so their bench is a little depleted for this game.
Nelly
Toledo - over Western Michigan
Toledo's undefeated season came to an end last week but it was hardly a poor performance, losing by 10 in a competitive game at Kansas. Kansas shot over 56 percent in that game with a huge edge on the boards but the Rockets forced 18 turnovers and kept the game close. That should build confidence heading into the MAC season. Western Michigan has historically been a tough host but the Broncos may be overvalued coming off back-to-back blowout wins, beating the Prairie View A&M and Siena Heights by a combined margin of 75 points. Western Michigan does have wins over Oakland and New Mexico State this season but they have also lost to several marginal teams this season, often by substantial margins. Western Michigan is the better defensive team in this matchup but Toledo has an amazing offense that just put up 83 points against Kansas and has a top five national efficiency rating. The Rockets also have six wins away from home this season going 5-1 ATS in those contests as well while Western Michigan has only played three lined home games as the schedule has been incredibly weak, ranking 275th in the nation. Western Michigan won both meetings last season in this series making for a great motivational opportunity for the Rockets in the MAC opener and by season's end this spread will look out of place.
Red Dog Sports
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Play: Arkansas -2.5
Texas A&M will be at home but they lost a recent home game by 20 points to North Texas. They lost a semi-home (neutral floor but played in Houston) game to Oklahoma by 12 points. Arkansas is 11-2 and one loss was against Gonzaga by 10 points. They did beat Clemson and Minnesota. The Razorbacks are well coached by Mike Anderson and led by:
Qualls 13.7
Portis 12.8
Harris 10.5
Madden 10
All 5 starters shoot 50% or better. It does concern me that the Razorbacks are playing their first true road game but they have the better shooters. Hopefully, the road team can jump ahead and make some 3's.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is going to be the Western Michigan Broncos, plus the points, against the Toledo Rockets.
To be catching points at home with this team is a gift. While I know the Rockets are 12-1 thus far this season, Western Michigan has won four of its last four meetings with Toledo and is 42-25 against the Rockets in games played in Kalamazoo, where the Broncos have scored 90+ points in two games this season.
This is a very dangerous team on its own court, and a team that runs very deep with a scrappy and talented bench. Western Michigan's reserves have combined to score 91 points in the team's last two games, while the Broncos have seen four different players reach double figures in scoring.
The Broncos are 114-30 (.793) at home under head coach Steve Hawkins, and are 68-18 (.791) against conference opponents at home during that span. They rank 29th in the country in 3-point field goal defense, as opponents are shooting a mere 28.9 percent from long range.
Toledo is playing good, but it's hard to beat the Broncos on their own court. Take the home underdog.
4♦ WESTERN MICHIGAN
Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Orlando Magic plus the double-digits at Portland.
As handicappers have slumps (don't I know it), so do NBA teams, and right now the Blazers are in one of those slumps, as Portland enters play this Wednesday night having lost outright in 4 of their last 5 games. Against the spread the numbers look worse, as the Blazers are on a 2-9 spread dive their last 11 games played!
True, Orlando has dropped 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 both straight up and against the spread, but they have split the last 10 series meetings straight up with the Trailblazers, and they have been able to cover the past 3 and 6 of those 10 meetings against the spread.
Portland is too good to lose outright to Orlando, but with the imposts proving a little too tall of late, let's look for Portland's spread mark to take another hit.
Take Orlando plus the points.
3♦ ORLANDO