Craig Davis
Today's free play of the day is on the Boise State Broncos plus the number against San Diego State.
While I think San Diego St. is clearly the better team and should be able to cover this number at home, Vegas is thinking the same way I'm thinking... and I believe they are trying to get some serious SDSU money.
You see, a lot of us don't know much about Boise State other than the fact their football team plays on a blue field and they put the school on the sports map when they beat Oklahoma a few years ago in the Fiesta Bowl.
Not so much with the basketball team as they have no significant wins or championships under their belt. However, this is one of their better teams and that will make two years in a row they will have a good enough team to challenge for a trip to the Big Dance.
But what I really like about this team is simply the fact they catch San Diego State in a horrible spot... coming back home after a big win AT Kansas. You see, non-conference teams simply don't come into Allen Fieldhouse and win... it just doesn't happen.
But it did --- Saturday!!
How can the Aztecs not come back home with a little arrogance about them? I'm not saying they're going to completely overlook the Broncos... but you know exactly what I mean. SDSU will tell you they are taking this game seriously and their coach will tell us they won't have an emotional hangover from that big win.
Please!! We know better.
The Aztecs win but the Broncos cover as your free play of the day.
2♦ BOISE STATE
Brad Wilton
Have to take the points they are giving with the Phoenix Suns this Wednesday night in Minnesota, as Phoenix sports a mighty profitable 12-4 spread mark on the road this season, and an overall spread mark of 23-9-1 for the year!
Minnesota enters this game off a drubbing of Philadelphia, but the Timberwolves have gone a middling 3-4 against the spread the last 7 times they have been installed as a home favorite this year.
Minnesota is also just 2-6 against the spread the last 8 times they have hosted Phoenix.
Based on the trends listed above, seems like the smart play to grab the points with the visiting dog here, and that is exactly what I am going to do.
Take Phoenix to stay inside of this roomy impost.
1♦ PHOENIX
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Texas A&M/ Arkansas Under 139: A good barometer for this game is the game that Texas A&M played vs Oklahoma recently. The Sooners play a fast paced uptempo game, just like Arkansas does and that game put up 116 points. Texas A&M's games have averaged just 130.2 ppg on the year including just 116.3 ppg in their last 6 games. this is a team that loves to slow the pace and they should get what they want on their home floor, where their games have averaged just 118.2 ppg. Arkansas does love the uptempo game, and they score 87.2 ppg on the year, but that will be very hard to come by in this one vs an A&M team that has allowed more than 67 points just once all year, while allowing just 60.6 ppg overall and 59.6 ppg at home. Like the Aggies, the Razorbacks have been playing some solid defense, especially of late as they have allowed just 55.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams are playing tough defense these days and I just don't expect the Razorbacks to make this into a running game, which will limit possessions and thus scoring. This one may very well be played in the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAY
Kansas/ Oklahoma Under 159: The Jayhawks have played some high scoring games this year, but that is not their norm at all. The game vs San Digeo State, in which 118 points were scored, is more their style of play. They do not like to run and i don't see them getting into a running game with the Sooners. The Kansas defense has been suspect a few times this year, but Bill Self really emphasizes strong defensive play and they have allowed 67 or less in 9 of their 13 games this year. The Sooner offense is ranked 5th in the nation in scoring at 87.3 ppg, but its hard to imagine this tear putting up 80+ points on this Kansas defense in this one. In fact I don't see either team hitting the 80 point mark in this one. 6 of the last 8 have gone over the total in this series, but just 1 of those 8 games saw more than 152 points scored. This one will again be played in the low 150's at best.
Harry Bondi
GEORGETOWN (-1) over Providence
This was supposed to be the year that Providence once again became a factor in the Big East but the Friars have suffered key injuries and suspensions and have failed to jell on the court and live up to its preseason hype. The team lacks a true leader and mental and physical toughness and that combination will spell trouble with Georgetown coming to town tonight. Providence is coming off it's worst performance of the season, a 30 point loss to Villanova on Sunday, and don't think Friars have what it takes to bounce back against a Hoya team that has defeated them 8 straight times!
Andre Gomes
Pacers / Hawks Under 188.5
IND is coming from a really tough game against the Raptors in which they had to work hard for the full 48-min. For some reason, IND is having some problems this season in b2b games, they are 1-6 ATS L7 b2b games and while their defense is almost always awesome, their offense is prone to struggle if they can’t generate good inside looks.
IND is now 26-96 3pts L5 games for a subpar 27% mark so I expect the Hawks to pack the paint against them and “force” the Pacers to beat them from the outside.
On the other end, the Hawks offense is having a “natural” regression now that Al Horford is gone for the season. Jeff Teague who is shooting less than 40 percent in his last four games and is 1-13 from three-point range in that span and even Kyle Korver is 6-21 from the field in the last three games. They are basically a jump shooting team and unfortunately for them, they will face the #1 ranked 3pts defensive team in the league as IND is allowing only 32.1% 3pts to their opponents.
I expect an usual grind-out game from the Pacers as they will try to win the game via their stellar defense while the Hawks will take advantage of the Pacers bad physical spot.