Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday June, 6

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres

When Padres send Clayton Richard to the mound against the Giants in Game Two of this three game N. L. Western division matchup Wednesday San Diego will do so knowing Richard has cashed in six of his nine career team starts against San Francisco, including 2-1 with a 1.39 ERA at home. That falls right in line with RIchard's 3-2 home team start mark with a 2.12 ERA this season as opposed to his 0-6 road log with a 6.57 ERA. Back the home loving home dog here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Sean Murphy

Mets @ Nationals
PICK: Under 8

We saw a relatively high-scoring game in the opener of this series last night, as the Nationals prevailed 7-6 in 12 innings, twice rallying from deficits in extras.

Of course, that final score is slightly misleading, as the two teams were tied at four runs apiece heading to extra frames. In 12 innings, they combined for only 23 hits so it's not as if it was an offensive onslaught.

The Mets have been one of the best 'over' bets in baseball this season, posting a 34-20-2 o/u mark, but it's worth noting that only one of their last five games has played over eight runs, excluding extra innings. The 'under' went 2-1 in a three-game series between these two teams back in early April, and has cashed at a 5-3 clip in the last eight meetings.

Last night's 'over' result saw the Nats' 3-0-1 'under' streak come to an end. Despite last night's seven-run outburst, Washington is still averaging just under 2.9 runs per nine innings over its last five contests.

Jeremy Hefner gets the nod for the Mets on Wednesday. His overall numbers are fairly weak, as he's posted a 5.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work this season. However, I liked what I saw from him in his most recent start, as he allowed only three earned runs over six innings in a 6-3 win over the Phillies. Note that Hefner has made two starts this season, posting a spotless 7:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 9 2/3 innings pitched. This is a matchup he can handle given the Nats' inconsistency at the plate.

Edwin Jackson will counter for Washington. He's had no luck at all lately, coming up empty in five consecutive starts. It hasn't been for lack of effort, as he's allowed three earned runs or less in all five of those outings, working into at least the seventh inning in four of them. Note that Jackson faced the Mets earlier this season, giving up only four hits, but three earned runs over five innings in a 4-3 loss. The 'under' is 6-4 in Jackson's 10 starts this season, including a perfect 3-0 over his last three.

Both bullpens got roughed up last night. The two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard, as the Nats' rank ninth in the majors' in bullpen ERA, while the Mets check in dead last.

I'm confident that Jeremy Hefner can step up and give the Mets a solid outing tonight, helping to keep that struggling 'pen out of the spotlight. Meanwhile, Jackson has proven to be a quality starter for the Nats' all season, and should do his part to keep this one 'under' the number.

Chris Elliott

Cubs @ Brewers
PICK: Over 7.5

The Cubs will send Paul Maholm to the mound in this one to face off against the Brewers. Maholm is 4-4 on the season with a 4.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He is 3-9 against the Brewers in his career with a 4.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

The Brewers will counter with ace Zack Greinke who has a 6-2 record with a 3.46 ERA and 1.32 WHIP on the season. Greinke has been roughed up against the Cubs in the past as he is 2-2 in his career with a 5.78 ERA and WHIP of 1.37.

6 of the 7 games this season between these two have gone "over" the total. The Brewers, without Prince Fielder, surprisingly are an "Over" hitting machine going "Over" 32-20 overall, 17-9 at home, 20-12 at night and 17-7 against their division.

In game one of the series on Tuesday evening, the Cubs made the Brewers look bad, winning 10-0 in Milwaukee. Alfonso Soriano continued his red hot tear hitting his 9th home run of the season and 5th in his last 10 games.

Look for the Brewers to come back strong after getting embarassed and pound Paul Maholm on Wednesday. I expect Greinke to pitch solid but with a line of 7.5, look for the Brewers and the Cubs to do enough to get "Over" the total.

Jesse Schule

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are playing some fantastic baseball lately, prior to Tuesday, winners of four of six, having scored a whopping 55 runs during that run. They will face an Angels pitcher that is coming off back to back solid outings, including a win against Seattle back on May 26. The 30 year old Jerome Williams has good numbers, going 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA so far this year.

Seattle will like their chances to get to Williams in this one, after all, coming into Tuesday's game against the Angels, they had been averaging over 10 hits per game, and they boast several players who are swinging the bat well in recent games.

The Mariners will hand the ball to 25 year old hurler Hector Noesi, who will replace the injured Felix Hernandez. Noesi doesn't have great numbers, going just 2-6 with a 5.51 ERA. He has been better than those numbers indicate however, lasting eight innings in two of his last three starts.

Despite the fact that the Mariners are playing great, they are still an underdog here today, and I like their chances.

Matt Fargo

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals

The Royals won last night behind a great performance from Bruce Chen and they look to get a similar effort tonight. Kansas City is playing a lot better following a horrendous start to the season as it is 21-16 over its last 37 games and it is now just 6.5 games out of first place in the American League Central. It may seem far fetched, but the Royals are far from out of it. Felipe Paulino looks to duplicate Chen's effort from last night and he has been pitching good enough to do so. He has allowed more than three runs only once this season and in six starts, he has given up no runs four times. This includes all three starts at home where he has a 1.00 WHIP to go along with that 0.00 ERA. His ERA drops to 1.15 in five nighttime starts.

Minnesota got off to an even worse start and it has had a tougher time trying to recover. The Twins have been playing better of late as they are 6-2 over their last eight games as the offense has caught some fire but they are still hitting only .246 and the pitching has done nothing to help make up for it. The team ERA is 5.08 which is tied for the worst in baseball and the issue is from the starters which have a combined ERA of 6.10. Nick Blackburn is partly to blame as he comes back from a stint on the disabled list trying to forget about his 8.37 ERA to start the season. He has allowed five runs or more in five of seven starts and he gave up four runs over six inning in two rehab starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona was a nice late phone winner for us last night. Tonight they fit a tight system that has won 16 of 21 times and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs as a favorite of -140 or higher and scored 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs, while scoring 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits, with both teams going error less in the game. Arizona has taken 15 of the last 20 here at home vs Colorado. The Rockies are 11-27 in road games when the total is 9 to 9.5, including 0-4 this season. Colorado has J. Outman making the start tonight and he has an elevated 5.63 era in limited work this season. He will oppose Miley who has been superb this season with a 2.65 era with Arizona winning 6 of his 8 starts. Look for Arizona to take another from Colorado.

Freddy Wills

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Chris Capuano has been consistently good all year long and posts a 2.95 ERA over his last three starts combined and he'll face the Phillies whose hitters he has regularly dominated. The Phillies hitters have a combined 122 AB with a .238 average and a .652 OPS. While with the Mets last year Capuano pitched 6 innings gave up just 4 hits and 1 ER. He'll try to duplicate that against a Phillies team that's been able to score some runs against south paws of late but overall at home they are scoring just 3.38 runs per 9 and are 14th in OPS vs. LHP with a .712 mark and are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. LH starter.

The Dodgers on the other hand have dominated RH starters going 40-18 in their last 58 and they'll face Kyle Kendrick who posts a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts comibned, but Kendrick has never been good pitching at home. He has a 4.79 ERA this year and over the last three years combined he posts a 4.47 ERA. He's not the type of pitcher that can run off too many quality starts in a row and the Dodgers hitters have his number. To be more specific Andre Ethier, Adam Kennedy, and James Loney are a combined .462 with 4 HR in 39 AB. To me that's enough for a few runs or for Kendrick to at least pitch around these two dangerous hitters.

Notable Hot Starters:
Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.06 WHIP, 2.91 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (0-3, 1.06 WHIP, 2.08 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 1.17 WHIP, 1.69 ERA)
Josh Beckett (2-1, 1.11 WHIP, 2.91 ERA)
Felipe Paulino (3-0, 1.31 WHIP, 1.47 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Wednesday's cold pitcher with the best chance to win in my opinion is going to be Nick Blackburn who will face the above hot starter Felipe Paulino. Any time you have a 1.31 WHIP and an ERA that almost matches you know that pitcher is pitching well above his capabilities or luck. Blackburn is not one of my favorite pitchers to back, but he's owned the Royals hitters. Royals have 114 AB with a .246 average and a .580 OPS against Blackburn.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jeremy Hefner (1-1, 1.55 WHIP, 8.38 ERA)
Randall Delgado (1-2, 1.84 WHIP, 6.75 ERA)
Wei-Yen Chen (0-3, 1.69 WHIP, 7.31 ERA)
Bud Norris (1-2, 2.25 WHIP, 8.10 ERA)

JR O'Donnell

Spurs / Thunder Over 202

The Oster notes that the Okie Thunder have a chance to put the Spurs away and get to the first title game in their history tonight With still such a young squad, nobody expected this so soon in Okie land, but more importantly they are winning by turning up the intensity and volume on the BOTH ENDS! They are making coach Scotty Brooks look like a wizard and you will see a sea of OKIE BLUE in the stands come tonight. We just love the total here, and the Spurs are due to have a big "O" game, and the Thunder can just score in bunches on anyone. Too much "O from both squads" on the hardwood tonight for .... 6 for 6 on the AFR show......... #7 here on the OVER TAKE OVER THE TOTAL OF 202

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Although his most recent away start was a total disaster, Brandon Morrow is generally rock solid on the road. I like Morrow and the Blue Jays to get the measure of Jose Quintana and the White Sox tonight.

Jim Feist

Orioles / Red Sox
Pick: Over

Fenway Park is a great hitter's park and two good offenses meet in this one. Josh Beckett of the Red Sox has a 4.25 ERA against Baltimore and his velocity is down this season. The over is 20-8-1 in the Red Sox's last 29 during game 2 of a series and 12-4-1 over the total in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore starter Wei-Yin Chen has a 5.40 ERA against Boston and the over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings between these AL East rivals. Play the Orioles/Red Sox over the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +144 over WASHINGTON

Prior to scoring seven times last night, the Nationals scored three runs or less in their previous five games. They’ve lost four of six and they’re just too big a risk laying significant juice because of that lack of offense. Edwin Jackson will face a Mets’ line-up with the best road BA in the NL this season. Jackson has been solid this season and his 3.17 ERA comes with full skills support. However, he’s had six quality starts in a row and that’s a rare feat for Jackson. His stock is at its highest point right now and that’s commonly when we become sellers. In two starts, Jeremy Hefner has logged one disaster and one gem. His 5.60 ERA in 18 IP hides his 12 K’s and 1 walk over that span. His 3.52 xERA shows what could have been, if not for a 55% strand rate. Outstanding control has been a part of his skill set in the minors and he's been successful in bringing that to the majors. He's worth keeping on your radar, as his solid skills should bring some excellent results and it could begin here. Play: N.Y. Mets +144 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +106 over PHILADELPHIA

The Dodgers go for the sweep here and there’s no reason they can’t get it against Kyle Kendrick. Some recent success, combined with Roy Halladay's injury, has Kendrick moving up the radar board but his 4.35 xERA shows that little has changed. His low strikeout total won't continue to work with a sub-50% groundball rate. His ERA is likely to remain above 4.00 and once the Phillies are healthy, he will head back to the bullpen because that’s who he is. The Phillies continue to struggle at the plate and they’ve won just three of nine games at home against southpaws. They’ll face another one here in Chris Capuano. Capuano has 61 K’s in 68 frames. Prior to giving up seven runs (four earned) in his last start at Coors Field, Capuano had gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. In eight of those nine starts he allowed two runs or less. We get a tag against a laboring Phillies team with an inferior pitcher on the mound and that sets this one up to step in. Play: Los Angeles +106 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +128 over ARIZONA

Wade Miley has raced out to a 6-2 start and 2.72 ERA. The lefty has quickly emerged as a replacement for ineffective Josh Collmenter and now looks to be a permanent fixture in the Diamondbacks rotation. Miley's surface stats say he's a different pitcher this year but his skills say otherwise. He has an average strikeout rate of 36 batters in 60 innings. His 78% strand rate is suppressing his ERA. His balls in play are being hit at people but will eventually find some holes. Miley has been lucky to strand so many runners on base and avoid home runs. Eventually, Miley's pedestrian skills will shine through and the good fortune will run out. If you’ve made a profit on Miley so far, it’s time to cash out. The Rockies had to be encouraged by what they saw from Josh Outman’s 3.1 innings on Friday as they replacement for Jamie Moyer. He allowed two hits, walked none and struck out five. Outman looked like the promising lefthander whose TJ surgery interrupted a fine 2009. After missing all of 2010 and logging only 58 innings last year, the Rockies plan to extend his pitch count a little more here. In his 8 innings to date, Outman has punched out 14, which definitely puts him on our radar but this one is more about fading Miley. Play: Colorado +128 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NBA/NHL

EZWINNERS

Miami Marlins -159

The Braves starting pitcher Randall Delgado has not pitched well recently. Delgado has allowed eleven runs on sixteen hits and eleven walks in his last three starts for Atlanta. The Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson is going in the other direction as four of his last five starts have been quality starts. The velocity on Johnson's fastball is also up to 96 mph and is a very good sign that the ace of the Florida staff is getting back into his groove. The Fish 25-9 in Johnson's last thirty four starts as a home favorite. Play on Florida.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -160

Losers of two straight and six of their last eight, the Detroit Tigers are certainly motivated for a victory here tonight. I fully expect them to bounce back due to their big edge on the mound with Max Scherzer over Jeanmar Gomez of the Cleveland Indians.

Scherzer has pitched very well of late, going 3-0 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out a whopping 30 batters in 18 1/3 innings. Gomez has struggled recently, going 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners over 10 2/3 innings.

Scherzer is 3-0 with a 3.44 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland, which all came at home. Gomez clearly doesn't like facing the Tigers. He is 1-2 with a 7.96 ERA and 2.065 WHIP in four career starts against them. Gomez has allowed 15 earned runs and 26 base runners over 7 2/3 innings in his two career starts at Detroit.

The Tigers are 30-11 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Detroit is 52-25 in their last 77 games following a loss. The Tigers are 5-0 in Scherzer's last 5 starts overall, and 10-1 in his last 11 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Bet Detroit Wednesday.

Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants -125

The San Francisco Giants have the edge here as they put the better southpaw on the hill, and they have had more success than San Diego against lefty starters this season.

San Fran's Bumgarner is 6-4 (7-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.04 on the season. The Giants are 13-5 in his last 18 starts overall. San Diego's Richard, meanwhile, is 2-6 (3-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.44. The Padres are just 8-20 in his last 28 starts.

The Giants are 12-5 against left-handed starters this season, hitting them at a .244 clip. The Padres are 4-16 against southpaw starters this season, hitting just .209 off of them.

The Giants have won 8 of their last 11 versus San Diego, and they are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts in the series. Take the Giants.