Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Since sweeping the Tigers at Progressive Field on May 22-24, the Indians have won just three times total in the last 10 games to fall out of first place in the AL Central, 1.5 games behind the White Sox. Still floundering are the third place Tigers at 25-30 following back to back losses, one coming to the Indians again last night in the series opener. Detroit is just 2-6 its last eight games overall, but we see them getting back on track here behind Max Scherzer who has won each of his last three starts thanks to an outstanding 30-3 KW ratio. Last night's win was just Cleveland's third in its last 19 trips to Comerica Park, so look for things to return to "normal" this evening. Cleveland's Jeanmar Gomez has dropped back to back starts, allowing 11 runs and 16 hits in less than 11 innings of work.
Bryan Power
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
After cashing the Angels last night, I am gonna recommend a small wager again on them tonight. Note that I also won yesterday's complimentary selection with Over Giants/Padres as the two teams nearly DOUBLED UP the oddsmakers number.
After surprisingly losing the series opener to the Mariners, Los Angeles came back with a 6-1 win last night to improve to 32-12 vs. Seattle in head to head play, including 17-5 here at home. They should be in good hands for Wednesday's series finale behind starter Jerome Williams, who is unbeaten in three career starts vs. the Mariners + is a perfect 5-0 in five home starts this season. Williams has already beaten Seattle on the road once this year. He's been even sharper at home (2.17 ERA), including a win over Texas here in his last start.
Seattle does not have a reliable arm at its disposal this evening, going with Hector Noesi, who is 0-3 in six road starts thanks to a 7.47 ERA. After losing back to back home starts, he was bailed out by the offense last time out after giving up six runs in the team's 10-8 win over the White Sox Saturday. Do not expect a similar result here.
Teddy Covers
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
It’s not hard to make a strong case for betting against Jeanmar Gomez these days. The Indians fifth starter has pitched like a fifth starter, lit up for 16 hits and 11 earned runs over 10.2 innings of work on his last two trips to the hill. His track record against the Tigers lineup is nothing short of awful. He faced them last September: 4.2 innings, ten hits and eight earned runs allowed. He faced them last April, again giving up ten hits (only three runs) in a short 5.2 inning outing. In his previous start against the Tigers in 2010, it was more of the same: eight runs and ten hits allowed in just three innings of work. With a 15.26 ERA, a 3.26 WHIP and a .465 batting average against in his career at Comerica Park, this is not a hurler primed for a strong effort tonight.
While Gomez is a dead nuts ‘bet against’ hurler tonight, Detroit’s Max Scherzer is in great current form, and he beat the Indians three times last year. Scherzer went 4-0 in May, striking out 51 batters while walking only eight in 35.2 innings of work. The Indians are just 1-7 in their last eight meetings against Detroit at Comerica Park, but the Tigers have been slumping off late, falling six games behind Chicago in the AL Central standings following last night’s loss. That ups the intensity for the home team in tonight’s game.
Tigers manager Jim Leyland held a closed door clubhouse meeting following last night’s loss. These post-meeting quotes tell the story of a team primed to bring their ‘A’ game against a vulnerable foe tonight: “This is a critical time for us. We can go in a corner, or we can come out swinging. If we come out swinging, well, we've got a chance. If not, we're going to be more vulnerable. You've got to make up your mind if you're going to come out swinging or take a beating. Our knees are a little wobbly right now. We're in a corner. You can feel sorry for yourself or you can come out swinging. We'll find out. I don't want any excuses.” Take Detroit.
Wunderdog Sports
St. Louis at Houston
Pick: Houston +125
Despite the fact that we are now into June, the oddsmakers continue to under-value this Houston team that lost 106 games a year ago. Put them against the World Champion Cardinals, minus Albert Pujols and a pedestrian .500 team and the gap between is huge, as what the Cardinals are putting on the field favors Houston. The Astros are not just an improved team they are a very good team at home where they have a winning percentage of .600. The Cardinals are playing badly at 3-9 in their last dozen games. The last time through the rotation the staff allowed 32 runs and 10 more in the game prior to that, depleting an over-worked pen. Houston is now 11-4 in Norris' last 15 starts as a home dog, and they have won six straight at home vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on Houston.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Angels -155
These two teams have split the first two meetings of this series, with the Angels winning 6-1 last night and the Mariners taking the first game 8-6. Los Angeles has now gone 5-1 against Seattle on the season, as they swept the Mariners in Seattle in May. The Angels have won 11 of their last 14 games and now sit 2nd in the AL West with a 29-28 record (16-3 at home). The Mariners are 25-33 good for 3rd in the West (16-20 on the road). Hector Noesi will take the mound for Seattle and is 2-6 with a 5.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .229 opponents batting average. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs against in 4 of his last 5 starts, with his latest start only lasting 4.1 innings after allowing 6 earned runs. He will be pitching on 3 days rest tonight. Jerome Williams will go for Los Angeles and he is 6-2 on the season with a 3.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. He has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs against in 6 of his last 8 starts. He has been much better at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .248 opponents batting average. Each pitcher has faced the other team once this season and both allowed 3 earned runs against in mediocre starts. Take note that the Mariners are 21-47 in their last 68 games as a road underdog, and 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs a team with a winning home record dating back to last season. The Mariners are also just 1-4 in Noesi's last 5 starts overall, and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. The Angels are 11-3 in their last 14 overall, 12-2 in their last 14 vs a right handed starter, 9-2 in their last 11 vs divisional opponents, and 8-2 in their last 10 following a win. The Angels are also a perfect 8-0 in Williams' last 8 home starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall. Los Angeles is 37-14 in these two teams last 51 meetings and 40-14 in their last 54 meetings in Los Angeles. Tonight we are going to lay some chalk on a home team that is playing up to their potential right now and will be behind one of their surprising best starters so far this year. Take the Angels to win.