Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +1.5
The Raptors have struggled on the road all season, winning just 10 of 30 games, and I expect those struggles to continue tonight. It will be extremely difficult for Toronto to get up for this one after getting its heart ripped out by Kobe Bryant and the Lakers last night. When the Raptors have been tired, they have been pure fade material. In fact, Toronto is 3-11 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 100.4 to 109.6. Toronto is also just 4-14 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 104.3 to 110.9. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Kings enter having covered the spread in 6 of their last 7. We'll side with Sacramento.
Derek Mancini
Denver at MINNESOTA (+7')
The last two times these teams have faced each other, Minnesota has walked away with the cash, and for the same reason. Timberolves frontline (Love may start depending on Hollins' suspension), matches up well with Denver upfront. Its an even better match up for Jefferson this time around, because he doesn't have to face the Nuggets best post defender in Kenyon Martin. Jefferson is coming off a 36-point, 13 rebound performance, and should go off once again tonight.
Of course, the Denver guards get the edge, but Johnny Flynn is a tough cover for the bigger Billups. Flynn got totally outplayed the last time he faced Billups, and I project a much better effort from the former Syracuse star tonight. The lanky/rangy Brewer should contain Afflalo as well, making the match up closer than gamblers are expecting.
It easy to look at the Nuggets 3-game win streak, and assume their rolling. But take a look back at their recent road play, and there's little to get excited about. They're under .500 on the road this season (14-16 SU, 12-15-3 ATS), and have lost 3 of their L4 road games, including at Washington as a 6-point road chalk! Denver is overrated on the road, and based on their recent meetings with Minnesota, this game will be closer than expected. Minnesota plus the points is the play.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Air Force (+1) vs Wyoming at Las Vegas, NV
When you first look at this number, laying less than a basket to side with a Cowboys team that's covered 3 straight, its very easy to side with Wyoming. Problem is, its almost too easy. Based on the nuetral court, and Wyoming's recent play, something is amiss with this line.
Taking it a step further, the line has dropped a point since it opened, despite the public action tilting heavily towards Wyoming...Good example of reverse line movement. Sharps are seeing something the everyday gambler is not (as is usually the case) and I'm all over it. It doesn't hurt the dog is 10-4 ATS in their L14 meetings!
These two schools split their regular season meetings (1-1 SUATS), and it all came down to the pace of play. If Air Force can slow the game down, have fewer but more efficient possesions, then they can absolutely win this game. Wyoming's offense is anything but consistent, and is prone to long droughts - a mixture which plays right into the Falcons style of play.
Grab the points with Air Force, as they seek revenge today at the Thomas & Mack Center. Wyoming won their last meeting because Air Force got away from their usual type of game... That will not happen today. Falcons' neutral court efforts vs Washington State and Niagara both cashed (shot 50% in those games), and they're money again Wednesday.
3♦ AIR FORCE
Nelly
New Jersey + over Dallas
Dallas is on an incredible roll with twelve consecutive wins but that has not made the Mavericks a profitable lot. Incredibly Dallas is 3-22-1 ATS in the last 26 home games as this is a team that is continually overvalued and often labors through flat performances as a veteran team. Injuries are mounting for the Mavericks and needless to say appropriate rest will be granted in a match-up with the worst team in the league as Brendan Haywood, Erick Dampier, and Jose Barea could all sit while Jason Terry is still also out with injury. That puts a big load onto Jason Kidd at the point guard position and Kidd rested in a game last week due to growing fatigue. The Nets have just seven wins on the season but New Jersey is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight road games. Two New Jersey outright wins came in the last six games including a win at Boston and this will be a big game for the best player on the Nets, Devin Harris who first joined the league with the Mavericks. New Jersey is 12-7-1 ATS overall in the last 20 games and this has become a much more competitive team even if the overall numbers are still dreadful. This is also a team that plays better on the road with a crowd atmosphere versus the depressing echoes of their empty home stadium. Dallas is 7-23-1 ATS on the season at home and the Mavericks are in a tough spot returning home from a couple of road wins and facing the pressure of a long winning streak without several contributing players. Take the points and expect the Nets to hold close tonight.
Matt Fargo
Nicholls State vs. Sam Houston
Play: Sam Houston -11
Playing these small conference games can give us a lot of value as the linesmakers are simply making their best guesses for these numbers. We are going with Sam Houston St. tonight in the first round of the Southland Conference Tournament. This line may seem big but it is big for a reason as the top seed in this tournament pretty much cruised through the conference slate with a 14-2 record and both of those losses came in overtime in true road games. The last loss happened to come in the final game of the season but don’t read too much into that as a momentum killer as the Bearkats had nothing on the line as the number one seed in the tournament was already locked up. This team is solid on both ends of the floor as offensively, Sam Houston St. finished the season with the highest scoring offense in the Southland, averaging 81.8 ppg and it betted that with a 99 ppg average over its last three games. The Bearkats led the country in assists and its assist/turnover ratio is an incredible 1.56, fourth in the nation. Defensively, this is where they have shown steady improvement after some rough non-conference games. Guard play is extremely important this time of year and the Bearkats backcourt is a strength as proven by those assist numbers and ratios. The Bearcats are ranked 16th in the latest mid-major top 25 poll. They take on Nicholls St. who snuck into the tournament thanks to winning its final two games of the regular season and grabbing the final spot. The Colonels finished 7-9 in the conference but four of those wins came against teams that did not qualify for the postseason and the three that did were all by close margins. This team struggles on defense and that is a problem in this matchup. The Colonels defense allowed a league-worst 52.6 percent shooting from league opponents. Even though they went 4-1 down the stretch and improved that porous defense, the shooting percentage allowed was still 47.2 percent over those final five games and I consider that pretty weak still. The first meeting was a close one as Sam Houston St. snuck out with a six-point victory but that game was as in Thibodaux and was a complete aberration for the Bearkats. They committed an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers and that led to 11 more shot attempts for the Colonels. Despite this, Sam Houston outshot Nicholls St. 59.5 percent to 43.8 percent and if not for the miscues that led to a 17-4 Colonels run, it would have been a blowout. Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS in its two lined games this season, winning and covering against Oral Roberts and Rider. Nicholls St. meanwhile went 1-4 ATS with some ugly blowouts. 3* Sam Houston St. Bearkats
John Ryan
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Charlotte Bobcats -1
3* graded play on Philadelphia as they host Charlotte set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Charlotte will win this game by a minimum of 3 points. 76ers are averagig 14.5 turnovers per game and the model projection is calling for them to have 13 to 17 in this game. 76ers are just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Charlotte has posted 6 straight UNDERS and they are 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. 76ers HC Jordan is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 73-17 for 81.1% on the money line since 2004. Play against dogs versus the money line off an upset loss as a road favorite and playing on back-to-back days. Take Charlotte.
Dennis Macklin
Take Oklahoma City -7 over New Orleans
The OKC Thunder look to pretty much have a death grip on the six hole in the ultra-competitive NBA West but as we all know, nothing is for certain. That said, the Thunder have a seven game lead on the Hornets and can go along way in administering the dagger with a win here. They get it! New Orleans starting to feel the effects of life without Chris Paul, 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS L5 and falling fast. Hornets not much on the road and 8-19 ATS as a RD at this level. The Thunder are 5-1 SU and ATS in L6 and have the added benfit of added rest, a spot where they are 8-2 ATS with more than two days of rest. The Thunder have an amazing young nucleus of players with Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook. The Thunder are going to be a surprising tough out in their first ever playoffs and fully expect them to take care of business against New Orleans. OKC 106-92.
Jack Jones
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Boston Celtics
Pick: Boston Celtics -5
This is a very generous line Wednesday as the Celtics host the Memphis Grizzlies. Boston has won 6 straight over Memphis, with five of those wins coming by 5 points or more. A big reason why this is such a small line tonight is because the Celtics have failed to cover 12 in a row against Memphis at home. But they'll end that streak tonight. Memphis has struggled stringing wins together of late, and they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. The Celtics have won 4 of their last 5 games overall before a 2-point loss to the Bucks last night. Boston has played well on little rest though, as the Celtics are 29-13 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. They return home hungry and motivated for a win Wednesday. Take advantage of this generous line and back the Celtics.
Black Widow
1* on Louisville -6
Louisville's press will be the difference in this game. They will force Cincinnati to eat up the shot clock on almost every possession they decide to press, and considering the Bearcats aren't a very good shooting team, they won't have enough time to run their offense and find good shots after breaking the press. Cincinnati is scoring just 62.5 points/game and shooting 39.8% from the field in road games this year. They are a completely different team away from home. Louisville still scores 72.0 points/game on the road on 44.2% shooting this season. The Bearcats struggled to beat Rutgers last night, one of the worst teams in the Big East, 69-68. Cincinnati is now 2-5 S.U. & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They are not playing well down the stretch, while the Cardinals are playing excellent by winning 5 of their last 7, including two wins over Syracuse. Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons. Louisville won the first meeting 68-60 at home over Cincinnati. The Bearcats are only 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season. Take Louisville and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Nuggets/T-Wolves UNDER 216
This number has been inflated because the T-Wolves have played to the Over in 4 straight and the Nuggets have played to the Over in 3 straight. We have seen these two teams combine for just 199 and 206 total points in the last 2 meetings so I'd say the Under is showing some value. Denver is the team you really have to worry about dictating the pace and running up the score, but Denver hasn't been that explosive on the road. In fact, Denver is just 17-7 UNDER in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season, and we are only seeing 204.2 points scored in these contests. Bet the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets +7.5
The Thunder are having a terrific season, but we can't overlook the fact that they are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Hornets are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I think OKC is getting a little bit too much respect here. We'll take the points.