Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 13

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Oregon State vs. Colorado
The Beavers look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games against teams with a losing SU record. Oregon State is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Buffaloes favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+4 1/2)

Game 623-624: Cincinnati vs. Providence (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 64.189; Providence 63.404
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 126
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+3 1/2); Over

Game 625-626: Seton Hall vs. Syracuse (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 57.393; Syracuse 69.745
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 627-628: St. John's vs. Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 60.156; Villanova 67.906
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 7 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Villanova by 4 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-4 1/2); Under

Game 629-630: Rutgers vs. Notre Dame (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 58.587; Notre Dame 69.623
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 11; 134
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 631-632: Stanford vs. Arizona State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 62.899; Arizona State 61.278
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Stanford by 4; 134
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+4); Over

Game 633-634: Colorado vs. Oregon State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 62.924; Oregon State 59.697
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 3; 130
Vegas Line: Colorado by 4 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 635-636: USC vs. Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 58.363; Utah 59.161
Dunkel Line: Utah by 1; 128
Vegas Line: USC by 2; 124
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2); Over

Game 637-638: Washington vs. Washington State (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 63.084; Washington State 56.752
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 127
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Under

Game 639-640: Air Force vs. UNLV (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 60.602; UNLV 63.927
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 3 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: UNLV by 10; 135
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+10); Over

Game 641-642: Fresno State vs. Colorado State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 55.091; Colorado State 66.465
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 11 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 9 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 643-644: Wyoming vs. New Mexico (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 55.338; New Mexico 67.072
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 645-646: Boise State vs. San Diego State (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 62.913; San Diego State 68.053
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 5; 129
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4; 132
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-4); Under

Game 647-648: SMU vs. UAB (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 55.963; UAB 56.290
Dunkel Line: Even; 136
Vegas Line: UAB by 2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+2); Over

Game 649-650: Rice vs. Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 45.325; Houston 54.685
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Houston by 11; 144
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+11); Under

Game 651-652: Marshall vs. Tulane (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 52.859; Tulane 55.167
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 2 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: Tulane by 3 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+3 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: Buffalo vs. Ball State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 56.547; Ball State 52.153
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Under

Game 655-656: Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 47.705; Miami (OH) 51.563
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 4; 116
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 2 1/2; 113
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-2 1/2); Over

Game 657-658: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 49.858; West Virginia 59.803
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 10; 127
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 8; 131
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-8); Under

Game 659-660: TCU vs. Texas (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 52.697; Texas 61.433
Dunkel Line: Texas by 8 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Texas by 11; 115
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+11); Over

Game 661-662: South Carolina vs. Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 53.633; Mississippi State 47.161
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 6 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-5 1/2); Under

Game 663-664: Texas A&M vs. Auburn (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 60.022; Auburn 52.345
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-5 1/2)

Game 671-672: McNeese State vs. Nicholls State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 46.807Nicholls State 44.737
Dunkel Line: McNeese State by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: McNeese State

Game 673-674: Central Arkansas vs. Sam Houston State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Arkansas 39.975; Sam Houston State 46.224
Dunkel Line: Sam Houston State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Sam Houston State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sam Houston State (-4 1/2)

Game 675-676: Bethune-Cookman vs. Norfolk State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 44.714; Norfolk State 51.654
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 677-678: North Carolina A&T vs. North Carolina Central (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 47.036; North Carolina Central 51.127
Dunkel Line: North Carolina Central by 4
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 679-680: Lafayette at Bucknell (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lafayette 52.337; Bucknell 64.473
Dunkel Line: Bucknell by 12
Vegas Line: Bucknell by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (-10 1/2)

Game 681-682: Grambling vs. Alabama A&M (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Grambling 21.381; Alabama A&M 37.612
Dunkel Line: Alabama A&M by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama A&M by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Grambling (+17 1/2)

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Texas Tech vs. West VirginiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Texas TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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These teams played twice during the regular season. WVU won 77-61 at Texas Tech on February 2nd, and 66-64 at home on February 16th.
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Texas Tech is coming off a tough 71-69 OT loss to Texas on March 9th. Jaye Crockett led the way with 15 points and eight boards.
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West Virginia is coming off an 83-74 loss to Iowa State on March 9th. Jabarie Hinds had 19 points.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Texas Tech is 5-4 ATS this year in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. And interestingly, the Red Raiders are 8-7 during weekday games, compared to just 2-12 in games played on the weekend.
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Note that West Virginia is just 5-8 ATS as a favorite this year, and just 2-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.
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Pick Analysis
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This was the first year that WVU finished the regular season with a losing record since 2002. Simply put, these are a couple of bad teams. The Red Raiders though were on the cusp of beating the Mountaineers last time out, and I believe have a legitimate shot at getting the better of WVU outright this time around in the opening round of the Big 12 Championship; that said, I'll recommend grabbing the points.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami (OH)FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the RedHawks meet the Eagles at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland in the second-round of the MAC tourney the first reaction is what has #11 seed Miami done to deserve carrying the weight of a favorite against #7 seed Eastern Michigan in this game tonight. After all, they dropped 13 of their last 15 games, including a 65-58 decision in Ypsilanti back on January 19. That loss, however, snapped a 16-game series win streak by Miami. With EMU riding a 0-7 ATS losing skein in this tourney, and the RedHawks 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in this event versus sub .560 opposition, we now understand why Miami is favored in this battle of the birds. And we concur. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ottawa vs. MontrealFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Sens are coming off a 3-2 OT loss to Boston on Monday (Ottawa has seen the total go under the number in 9 of 12 road games so far this year). The Habs have won three straight, including a 5-2 victory at Florida on Sunday (Montreal though has seen the total go under the number in seven of 13 home games). These teams have played three times this season, and the total has gone under in two of three, including the last two straight. I'm expecting another full on defensive battle, where players go to inhuman lengths to block shots and passes (note that Montreal's Carey Price has a tiny 1.36 GAA in winning four of his last five vs. the Sens at home). There's no love loss between these two Northeast combatants whenever they get together, and it now appears we're headed towards another all out war. Consider a play on the under.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona State +3½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona State is a good team and they have a very respectable 20 wins on the season. They are coming off a poor performance against in-state rival Arizona and they should be able to have a strong rebound game against Stanford today. You should always play on an underdog coming off a road loss by 10 points or more like Arizona State when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent. This system is 369-266 (58.1%) over the last five seasons.
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When these teams played back on February 9th Stanford squeaked off a three point victory with a 59-62 final score. Arizona State has a little more to play for now and that should help the better team prevail. You should also play on a team revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points and they are coming off an embarrassing road loss also scoring less than 60 points. This system is 77-41 (65.3%) and proves that the majority of the time teams rebound from a poor performance. Arizona State is no ordinary team either; they are a quality team with a lot of talent which makes it even more likely for them to bounce back with a strong performance today.

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The PAC 12 tournament should be interesting because so many teams are desperate for wins. The Washington Huskies are definitely among that group, squandering upper echelon talent once again. They get a favorable first round draw of Washington State, the worst team in the league and a team they have beaten twice already this season. Those wins were by 4 and 5 points which is the only reason this spread is so small. The Huskies have won 5 straight against their in-state rivals and I don’t see the streak ending anytime soon. Take the small favorite in this one and look for signs this team might be breaking out. Their talent level is just too high.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philly is rested and the defending champs come to town, so the home fans will be into this one. Miami had to play last night at home against Indiana, so this will be third 3rd game in 4 nights and the second of a back to back spot. The Heat is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record. This is the second straight home game for the 76ers and they come off a nice effort, a 106-97 win over Brooklyn as a +6 home dog. Look for a big effort by the home team and a less than stellar effort from tired Miami. Play the 76ers.

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati -3.5 over ProvidenceFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati was a team that I spoke highly of and even liked them at 100/1 to win the NCAA Title. Since then this team has played horrible. There is so much talent on this team. They have a great backcourt and can rebound the ball well. Everyone on this team has a role yet they have not put it together in the BIG East this year. Today starts a new season. This team is geared up to make a run. Lets see if they have the heart. Take the Bearcats.
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TCU/Texas Over 114FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This TCU team really has nothing to lose in this tournament and I think might be able to give Texas a run for their money today. The Longhorns are soft underneath the basket which should allow TCU to get easy points. Texas should win this game because they are a better team, but one they come up against a real true big man under the net they are done. Both defenses are horrible. Take the Over
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Miami OH/Eastern Michigan Over 113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Michigan shot the ball well and still almost lost to NIU the other night because the Huskies simply shot so many 3 pointers. NIU shot the ball as bad as you can and still almost won that game. The linemakers made a tricky line today. I think this game is going to turn into a shootout because the Miami OH defense is brutal. Take the Over.

JEFF BENTON

Wednesday's freebie is Tulane over Marshall.

This one is not so much a play ON the Green Wave, as it is a play AGAINST the Thundering Herd.

Marshall is just 6-21-1 versus the number their last 28 games, and that includes a 91-75 loss to Tulane the last time these teams played back in February. True, the Thundering Herd did actually split the season series with the Green Wave this year, but with a 2-6 overall spread mark in this series, and a 2-13 overall spread mark away from home this season, hard for me to get pumped about taking the Herd in this tournament opener.

Tulane comes in with losses in their last 4, but at 18-13 for the season, the Green Wave are eyeing playing in one of the many postseason tournaments upcoming. A win in tonight's opening round will solidify their cause.

Go against Marshall in this one.

2* TULANE

Chris Jordan

I've got two free college basketball winners for tonight, as I like what I'm seeing i Conference USA action and Mid-American Conference play. My first one is out of the C-USA, as I'm laying the points with the Houston Cougars over the Rice Owls, in and H-town rivalry.

This is the third time these crosstown rivals will meet this season, after both teams split the season series by winning one a piece at each team's respective home court. But let's be real gents, while Houston finished 18-11 overall this season - with a 7-9 mark in C-USA play - Rice finished up a dismal 5-25 this season and was an abysmal 1-15 in Conference USA action.

And get this, Rice's lone conference win this season was against these Cougars back on Jan. 30th, when the Owls got it done by 10 points with a 79-69 victory. Of course, the Cougars already got revenge, with an 84-62 victory on March 6. But this is the tournament, and you best believe Houston has its sights set on challenging everyone in its path in this event.

You may think I'm nuts, but the Cougars are dangerous on the offensive end of the court, ranked 7th nationally with an average of 78.6 points per game. They also rank 29th in the country with 38.4 rebounds per game and 35th in the nation with 15.1 assists per game.

Conversely speaking, Rice ranks 346th nationally with just 25.5 rebounds per game and 282nd in assists with 11.3 per game. The Owls are also near the bottom of all Division I schools, sitting at 316th in the country in field goal percentage (39.8 percent), out of 345 teams in the nation.

That's a whole lot of stats I'm throwing at you, but in this case, in this game between city rivals, it's the main reason I like the Cougars tonight. Look for Houston to be on top of things with its sharp shooting ways, and to win this one going away by a final of something similar to 80-63.

2* HOUSTON

My second free play for tonight is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles, catching points from Miami, Ohio. The Green Birds are in after narrowly defeating Northern Illinois on Monday, 45-44, but it's because of that close game I think EMU will be able to light things up tonight.

A wake-up call like that will refocus the Eagles and have them even more ready for this game, as they make a 170-mile jaunt from Ypsilanti to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland for this second-round showdown.

Eastern Michigan leads the conference in scoring defense (59.2) and 3-point defense (29.9 percent), so you can fully expect the Eagles to step things up on defense and limit the Redhawks' production. EMU has limited opponents to 50 points or less 11 times this season, and tonight it catches the same Miami team that had won 16 straight meetings before dropping a 65-58 decision back in January.

The Eagles are in on ATS win streaks of 13-4 after an ATS setback, 11-5 in conference play and 8-2 against losing teams. On the flipside, Miami-O has lost 6 of 8 at the window, when playing on neutral courts.

Take the pup here.

1* EASTERN MICHIGAN

BRETT ATKINS

My free winner for Wednesday is going to be a matinee game out of the Conference USA, as I head to the Bok Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma and play Southern Methodist catching points from Alabama-Birmingham.

Seeded 10th, SMU (15-16, 5-11 C-USA) isn't necessarily that far off from the seventh-seeded Blazers (15-16, 7-9 C-USA), and will actually be out for revenge today. The Mustangs lost 74-69 at UAB on March 2 after Cannen Cunningham's game-tying 3-point attempt with 12 seconds left clanked off target. UAB's Rod Rucker went on to ice the game with a pair of free throws.

Now it's time for payback.

And on this neutral court in Tulsa, look for the 'Stangs' stingy defense to be the difference today. SMU leads the league in field goal percentage defense (.397) and free throw percentage (.745), while it also ranks third in the league in scoring defense (63.0).

Trust me, this is not a bad basketball team, and I honestly wouldn't be surprsied to see it make a run after winning this game. On deck for the winner of this game is second-seeded Southern Miss, which the Mustangs gave fits to back on Jan. 16 in the teams' only meeting this season, losing just 74-70.

And allow me to shed a little light, the Mustangs opened the campaign winning eight of their first nine games, including wins over TCU of the Big 12 and Utah of the Pac 12.

As for its losses, SMU's last 12 have come by a rather respectable margin of 6.75 points per setback.

And while the Blazers are mired in ATS losing streaks of 2-6 after an ATS loss, 3-7 after a straight-up setback and 5-17 on neutral courts, SMU has covered four of five against losing teams.

Take the underdog in this one.

2* SOUTHERN METHODIST

SCOTT DELANEY

On to my complimentary winner for tonight, as I keep it rolling after last night's winner on North Carolina A&T improved my free-pick run to 93-72-5. I've actually won with my freebie the past three nights, and will keep it right here in Las Vegas for Free Pick Winner #4 in a Row, and roll with a Pac 12 winner on the Utah Utes plus the points against the Southern Cal Trojans at the MGM Grand Garden.

The winner of this game gets top-seeded UCLA, and as much as most people would like to see L.A.-based rivals USC and UCLA get it on tomorrow, I'm here to tell you the Utes have other plans.

This has been nothing more than another forgettable basketball season for the Trojans, and even though they're seeded higher than Utah, I like the scrappiness the Utes exude when they step on the floor.

Their record may not indicate it what they actually do on the hardwood, and there's no doubt we've seen them play terribly in all facets of the game, but I also saw them close out the season by knocking off both Oregon schools. So forget about that 76-59 ass whooping the Trojans out on Utah back on Jan. 12, it's all about the teams that are bringing momentum into the postseason.

And knowing Utah finished the season strong by winning four of five games, including that double-digit win over No. 19 Oregon last weekend, it's clear which one of these teams has the momentum flow.

Utah moved into this conference last season and dropped its first-round contest to Colorado. This year it is fully capable of scoring its first tournament win in this conference, especially with one of the top offenses in the league, particularly from beyond the arc.

Southern Cal has lost 5 of 6 at the window against Pac 12 foes, while Utah is on ATS win streaks of 4-1 after an ATS cover and 6-2 in conference play.

Take the underdog here boys.

1* UTAH

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Texas A&M at AuburnFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M (17-14) has lost four of their last 5 games after their 73-62 loss at Arkansas last Saturday -- and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Aggies have also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. That game finished Over the 131 Total which means Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 8 Southeastern Conference games Over the Total. Auburn (9-22) limps into this tournament after their 74-71 overtime loss at Mississippi State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday -- and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Tigers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Total was set at 132 for that contest which means Auburn has now played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the SEC. Look for these trends to continue on a neutral court where both team personalities will likely generate a game that sees more scoring than point spread expectations. Take the Over in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Oregon State vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado

The Buffaloes come into this one with a solid 36 RPI Ranking and have won 11 of 13 vs teams ranked higher than 100 in the RPI Scale, so I have no problem laying a few points here as Colorado checks in at a cool 10-0 with 9 spread wins in games after scoring 60 or less and 20-2 vs losing teams. They are 6-2 ats when the total is 130 to 140 and are 6-1 with 5 spread wins in Conference tournament play of late, They have home home loss revenge here against an Oregon St team that has lost 14 of 16 vs winning teams and is 1-4 ats after allowing 60 or less points. When playing off a conference win the Beaver are 0-3 straight up and ats and 0-4 with just 1 spread win when the total is 130 to 135. Look for Colorado to get the win and cover here today.