Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday March, 14

DUNKEL INDEX

South Florida vs. California
The Bears look to take advantage of a South Florida team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. California is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: California (-2 1/2)

Game 593-594: Manhattan at Albany (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 54.025; Albany 50.831
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 3; 141
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 1 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-1 1/2); Under

Game 595-596: Yale at Fairfield (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 53.553; Fairfield 59.989
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 6 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 8 1/2; 124
Dunkel Pick Yale (+8 1/2); Over

Game 597-598: Bowling Green at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 54.651; Oakland 55.902
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Oakland by 4; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+4); Under

Game 625-626: Vermont vs. Lamar (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 54.911; Lamar 59.384
Dunkel Line: Lamar by 4 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Lamar by 3; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Lamar (-3); Over

Game 627-628: South Florida vs. California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 63.961; California 68.180
Dunkel Line: California by 4; 116
Vegas Line: California by 2 1/2; 115
Dunkel Pick California (-2 1/2); Over

Game 629-630: Minnesota at LaSalle (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 64.407; LaSalle 66.228
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 2; 132
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 3; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick Minnesota (+3); Under

Game 631-632: Central Florida at Drexel (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 59.320; Drexel 63.719
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 4 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Drexel by 7 1/2; 124
Dunkel Pick Central Florida (+7 1/2); Over

Game 633-634: Northern Iowa at St. Joseph's (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 56.134; St. Joseph's 67.904
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 12; 128
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 6 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick St. Joseph's (-6 1/2); Under

Game 635-636: Valparaiso at Miami (FL) (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.806; Miami (FL) 65.470
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 7 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 10 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick Valparaiso (+10 1/2); Under

Game 637-638: Bucknell at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 57.376; Arizona 68.122
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick Arizona (-8 1/2); Over

Game 639-640: Nevada at Oral Roberts (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 57.414; Oral Roberts 65.102
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 7 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 5 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick Oral Roberts (-5 1/2); Over

Game 641-642: Illinois State at Mississippi (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 61.114; Mississippi 65.393
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 4 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 6 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick Illinois State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 649-650: Wofford at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 50.192; Pittsburgh 61.261
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11; 125
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 13 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick Wofford (+13 1/2); Under

Game 651-652: Quinnipiac at Pennsylvania (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 53.546; Pennsylvania 61.379
Dunkel Line: Pennsylvania by 8; 136
Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 4; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick Pennsylvania (-4); Over

Game 653-654: Delaware at Butler (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 52.607; Butler 63.693
Dunkel Line: Butler by 11; 128
Vegas Line: Butler by 9; 132
Dunkel Pick Butler (-9); Under

Game 655-656: North Dakota State at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 51.883; Wyoming 60.155
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 8 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 10; 123
Dunkel Pick North Dakota State (+10); Over

Game 657-658: Western Illinois at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 55.132; Oregon State 61.131
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 6; 133
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 11 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick Western Illinois (+11 1/2); Over

Game 661-662: Buffalo at American (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 58.293; American 52.968
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick Buffalo (-2 1/2); Under

Game 663-664: North Dakota at Drake (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 47.752; Drake 58.422
Dunkel Line: Drake by 10 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Drake by 13 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick North Dakota (+13 1/2); Under

Game 665-666: Rice at UL-Lafayette (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 57.151; UL-Lafayette 51.573
Dunkel Line: Rice by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Rice by 1; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick Rice (-1); Over

Game 667-668: UC-Santa Barbara at Idaho (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 60.561; Idaho 57.452
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 3; 133
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 1; 136
Dunkel Pick UC-Santa Barbara (-1); Under

Game 669-670: CS-Bakersfield at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Bakersfield 48.230; Utah State 56.569
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 8 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Utah State by 11; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick CS-Bakersfield (+11); Over

Game 671-672: CS-Fullerton at Loyola Marymount (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 54.496; Loyola Marymount 58.033
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 4; 152
Vegas Line: Loyola Marymount by 7; 147
Dunkel Pick CS-Fullerton (+7); Over

Marc Lawrence

Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

The Warriors host the Celtics in a non-conference clash Wednesday night with Boston fresh off its upset win over the Clippers Monday night while Golden State returns home off last night's visit to Sacramento. That sets the tome for tonight's contest with Boston in letdown mode against non-rested foes this season (2-7 ATS) while the Warriors check in with a sterling 15-3 ATS mark as a dog in this series, including 6-1 ATS at home. With the Celtics just 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS away fro Beantown this campaign, we'll bark with the prosperous home dog here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Jim Feist

Delaware vs. Butler
Play: Under 132

It's tourney time, which means more defense than offense in a lot of game. Delaware is not a great shooting team, just .425% as a team, while the defense is third in the Colonial allowing just 39% shooting. The under is 5-0 in the Blue Hens last 5 non-conference games. They take on a Butler squad that always plays great defense, off two straight trips to the NCAA title game. This season Butler is second in the Horizon League in points allowed (60.8 ppg) and FG shooting defense (41%). Play Delaware/Butler under the total.

Rob Vinciletti

Central Florida vs. Drexel
Play: Drexel -7

Drexel may want to send a message after getting left out of the NCAAB Tournament. They have the numbers to do it as they are 13-0 at home this season including a perfect 6-0 ats from -3.5 to -6. They do well to get on the giving end of hump day as they are 7-1 straight up and ats on Wednesday and have covered the last 7 times vs winning teams. In games after allowing 60 or less they have a solid 16-5 spread mark. Tonight they take on a Central Florida team that has lost 7 of 10 vs winning teams and looks to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for Drexel to get the win and cover.

Dave Cokin

Central Florida vs Drexel
Pick: Drexel

Drexel was disappointed Sunday when they felt as though they might have been snubbed by the NCAA selection committee. Now they're downright insulted by their seeding in the NIT. Dragons with the proverbial chip on the shoulder are worth a play at home tonight against a middling Central Florida entry.

Free NBA Release for 3/14: Miami Heat/Chicago Bulls UNDER 192. The under is showing excellent value when these two heavyweights step on to the hardwood tonight. Our analysis has this total worth 186.5 points, that's an overlay of approximately 6 points (or underlay, depending how you look at it). Miami will be playing on no rest, and after playing some overtime in Orlando last night. Miami games are already averaging only 183.6 total points/game over their last five (before last nights ot game). They've tightened up their defense of late, allowing foes to just 89.4 points/game during that stretch. The Bulls home games have averaged a grand total of 183.8 points/game all year, where they're allowing opponents to less than 87 points/game. The under is 4-1-1 in the Heats last six games overall, and a solid 5-1 in the Bulls last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The under is also 13-6 in the last 19 meetings between these two, including 8-2 the last 10 times they've met in Chicago. We're suspecting a slower pace, and a solid defensive performance by both teams tonight. We'll take the UNDER 192 points. *Our free plays are 178-96-1 all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to get all of our free releases via email. Thanks, and best of luck tonight.

MATT RIVERS

NBA free play winner tonight is Philadelphia to get the "W" on the road against Indiana.

The Pacers snapped a four-game losing streak with a big blowout win over Portland last night at home, but Indiana has struggled when playing with no rest as evidenced by their 5-8 spread mark this season.

Philadelphia has picked up traction once again, winning and covering their last three contests. The 76ers have also held the upper hand in this rivalry of late, winning and covering the last pair of meetings, and three of the last four overall.

Indiana has failed nine of their last twelve at the Bankers Life Field House and I don't see last night's win over a poor-traveling Portland team as curing their recent woes.

Take the Sixers.

4♦ PHILADELPHIA

Lets get to a free play for Wednesday night, and I am interested in grabbing the points with the Redbirds of Illinois State as they play in Oxford against the Rebels of Ole Miss.

Both teams closed with some momentum before getting bounced in their conference tournaments, as Illinois State charged all the way to the MVC final before bowing in overtime to Creighton, while Ole Miss was on a five game winning streak before losing in the semis against eventual tournament champion Vanderbilt.

I expect a close one tonight, as the Redbirds do own three straight covers when getting points, and now know they can play with the best of them after what they showed in their conference tournament.

Ole Miss has failed six of their last nine tries when installed as the favorite, and they are just 7-5-1 against the spread this season in their lined home games. Granted, the Rebels do own some bigger bodies, but I will side with the streaking underdog to make a game of it tonight.

The Rebels advance, but the Redbirds take it at the ticket window.

1♦ ILLINOIS STATE

JEFF BENTON

Wednesday's freebie is La Salle at home over Minnesota in NIT play.

Very rare that the Explorers are playing host to a power-conference school, and that fact will not be lost on the La Salle cheering section, as tonight is a rare night on ESPN2 for the team from North Philadelphia.

What the Explorers lack in size, they make up for in quickness as Dr. John Gianinni's team has four guards that regularly score in double-figures.

La Salle's went 14-2 straight up at home this season, and their sparkling 12-3-1 spread mark on their home floor shows they can get the job done when laying points at the Tom Gola Arena.

Minnesota has covered their last four in the underdog role, but they only sport a pair of straight up wins their last nine times on the floor. Granted the Golden Gophers own a size advantage over the Explorers, but I have to question the motivation of Minny in this game? Do the Gophers really want to be playing in Philadelphia on a Wednesday night? I don't think they do. I think the motivation rests with La Salle, a team that is making their first postseason appearance since the 1990's.

Go with the Explorers as the small favorite to prevail on their tough home court.

3♦ LA SALLE

Matt Fargo

Delaware @ Butler
PICK: Delaware +9

After two straight appearances in the NCAA Championship, Butler finds itself on the outside of the NCAA Tournament altogether this year. As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs were not even offered a spot in the NIT so they have been relegated to the CBI. For most teams, playing in any postseason tournament is positive as it means something good came out of the season. For Butler, even though it knew it would be a rebuilding year, this is a major letdown after the last couple seasons.

Delaware came into the season not expecting much either as it looked to be another down year after going 14-17 last season. The Blue Hens started 7-10 and then things turned around in a hurry. They won 10 of their final 12 regular season games including eight straight to end the season. They opened the CAA Tournament with a win over Towson before losing to Old Dominion but their 18-13 record was good enough for an invite into the CBI and unlike Butler, Delaware is thrilled.

The Blue Hens are led by guard Devon Saddler, who averages a team-high 19.1 ppg and forward Jamelle Hagins, who is the career leader in blocked shots, is third in the nation with 11.3 rpg while averaging in 12.6 ppg. The offense has scored 70 or more points in eight of its last nine games and while the Butler defense gets the praise, the Blue Hens are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2 percent from the floor which is good for 17th in the nation. A potential low scoring game favors the big underdog.

This is the first winning season in eight years for the Blue Hens so this is an experience they have not been a part of in quite some time. Motivation is far from an issue as these players are looking to become the first team in the history of the program to win a postseason game as Delaware is 0-5 in the NCAA tournament and NIT. Delaware is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following consecutive ATS losses.

Tom Grassi

Western Illinois at Oregon St.
Play: Oregon St.

Western was knocked out of their conference championship by South Dakota State in a tough two point loss. They now have to go out west to take on an Oregon State team who was taken out of the PAC 12 tourney by Arizona 72-61. The 61 points Oregon State scored was one of their lowest outputs of the season. However, that was at a neutral site and this game is at home where they put up 83 points per contest. W. Illinois isn’t a bad defensive team, but they’re not good enough to hold this Oregon State team down, and their offensive isn’t explosive enough to score with the Beavers.

Alatex

Minnesota at La Salle
Play: Over 137.5

A common thought process with these non-NCAA postseason tournaments is to lean OVER the total, and that is certainly what I see here. When you only have a day or two to prepare for your opponent and have limited tapes of their games, there is just no way that you are going to be ready for what they run on offense. That is a stark contrast to league games, where the coaches run the same stuff year after year and by the end of the season when a point guard calls a play, the defense knows what’s coming. Throw in the fact that it is hard for teams to play with the same intensity on the defensive end against an unknown opponent and it is easy to see why these games are usually higher scoring. In this matchup we have a team, La Salle, that tries to run all the time against a team that has shown they are willing to run against faster opponents, Minnesota. I definitely think that both teams will be able to score here, and they are certainly capable of easily going over this total.

Craig Trapp

Loyola Maryland vs. Ohio State
Play: Loyala Maryland +17.5

We have been cashing big playing against OSU the last month of the season and tonight we keep it going. Bucks don't shoot it great from outside and have virtually no bench. On the other hand Loyola Md can shoot the ball very well. Athletically OSU has advantage but not enough to cover this type of number. Easy money winner

Jimmy Boyd

San Antonio Spurs -7

This is a letdown spot for Orlando following last night's big overtime win against the Miami Heat. It will be very difficult for the Magic to bring the same kind of intensity to the floor that it brought in last night's win.

The Spurs are 16-4 at home where they carry an average winning margin of 10.2 points. They have won 4 of their last 5 and 12 of their last 15 at home against the Magic. Their last 4 home wins over Orlando have come by an average of 15.8 points.

The Spurs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest division. Lastly, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll lay the points.

Steve Janus

St Joseph's -6

You have to really pay attention to home-court advantage in the NIT, and I think St. Josephs should have no trouble covering what looks like a large spread at home. The Hawks finished up the year 12-3 at home, while UNI was only 6-10 on the road. Adding even more value to this play is the distance that the Panthers have to travel for this game. There is very little travel in the Missouri Valley, which is why I think the Panthers will struggle to play well out on the East Coast.

UNI has really struggled against teams who play well at home, and they come into this game 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

St Josephs is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games overall, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.