Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 16th, 2011

Marc Lawrence

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics

When Boston plays host to Indiana in an Eastern Conference clash in Beantown tonight they will take the court knowing they are 9-3-1 ATS in this series when Indiana arrives off a SU underdog win. With the Pacers on a 5-10 ATS slide in their last 15 games and 5-13 ATS with no rest this season, including 2-10 ATS away, look for Boston to get back on track here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.

Hollywood Sports

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

The Heat (46-21) turned the tables on their 30-point loss in San Antonio on March 4th by smacking down the Spurs by a 110-80 margin on Monday. But that was just the second time in their last seven games where Miami covered the spread against a team with a winning percentage over 60%. Oklahoma City (43-23) has covered four of their last five road games after their 116-89 win at Washington on Monday. They have also covered four straight games following a double-digit win.

Jim Feist

Cavs at Kings
Pick: Kings

Cleveland has packed in the season early, riding a 0-4 SU/ATS run losing all four by double digits -- and two were at home. The Cavaliers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. Western Conference and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Sacramento comes off a 129-119 rout of the Warriors as center Samuel Dalembert scored 27 points to go with 16 rebounds. The Cavaliers are a long way from home and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play the Kings.

James Patrick Sports

Iona vs. Valparaiso

Interesting match-up in the College Insiders Tournament has a veteran Iona team that responds well to a loss as evidenced by their perfect Over the Total ATS mark of (6-0) in the Gaels last (6) games following a ATS loss. HC Homer Drew and the Crusaders have played Over the Total at a (5-2) ATS pace in the Crusaders last (7) home games. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Wednesday NCAA Tournament Basketball action is Iona - Valpo Over the Total.

EZWINNERS

UTSA Roadrunners -4

The Alabama State Hornets knocked off the number one seed Texas Southern Tigers to win the SWAC tournament and the automatic bid to the Big Dance, but I don't expect them to go any further. The SWAC was one of the weakest conferences in division one basketball and Alabama State is only 17-17 this season despite having the fifth weakest schedule of any team in division one basketball. UTSA has won 19 games for three straight seasons despite playing a brutal non conference schedule of "pay day" games for the school. The Roadrunners have a lot more offensive talent on their team than the Hornets and they have that offense rolling right now as they average almost 84 points per game in their Southland Conference tournament wins. I expect the Roadrunners to pick up the win and advance to play the number one seed Ohio State Buckeyes. UTSA is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven lined games. Lay the points.

Tom Freese

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Dallas Mavericks -3½

Golden St is 30-37 straight up this year. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games as home underdogs. Golden St is 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of over 60%. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games as home dogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Dallas is 47-20 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Dallas is 13-5 ATS their last 18 Wednesday games. Dallas is 12-5 ATS when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. The Mavs are 13-5 ATS vs. NBA Pacific teams.

Sean Murphy

Virginia Commonwealth @ USC
PICK: Virginia Comm +4.5

VCU struggled down the stretch, losing four of its final five regular season games, but seemed to right the ship during the CAA Tournament, beating Drexel and George Mason before falling to Old Dominion in the championship game.

Remember, this is virtually the same VCU squad (minus Larry Sanders) that came within an overtime loss of reaching the NCAA Tournament last year, and went on to win the CBI with five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS). I love the experience the Rams bring to the table with four seniors on the roster.

They're just two years removed from a narrow 65-64 loss to UCLA in the opening round of the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Joey Rodriguez, Bradford Burgess, Ed Nixon, and Brandon Rozzell took part in that game, and all remain key contributors here in 2011.

USC is one of the more overrated teams in the nation in my opinion. I'm not a fan of Trojans head coach Kevin O'Neill, and the controversy he stirred up last week certainly didn't help his team's cause during the Pac-10 Tournament. He was suspended after getting into an altercation with an Arizona fan. The Trojans beat Cal in the opening round before falling to Arizona in the semis.

Back in December, the Trojans had an impressive stretch that saw them beat Texas at home, lose by two at Kansas, and win at Tennessee. As far as I'm concerned, they peaked early, as since that win over the Vols, they've gone a mediocre 12-9 SU overall and 8-9-3 ATS in lined contests.

USC reached the NCAA Tournament two years ago, and beat Boston College in the opening round. Keep in mind, only Marcus Simmons and Nikola Vucevic remain from that team. Simmons scored 20 points against Arizona in the Pac-10 Tournament, but averages just five points per game on the season. Vucevic remains their go-to guy, averaging over 17 points and 10 rebounds per game.

VCU hasn't fared well in the role of favorite this season, but as an underdog, the Rams have gone 6-4 ATS. Meanwhile, USC has covered the number only once in its last five tries as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The last time the Rams found themselves with their backs against the wall, they won outright as nine-point underdogs at Wichita State in a BracketBuster matchup on February 18th. There's no denying the talent is there on this team, more often than not it has simply come down to motivation. There will be no shortage of that on Wednesday night. Take VCU.

Matt Fargo

Iona vs. Valparaiso
Play: Valparaiso

I played against Iona in its last game which was the MAAC Championship as it lost to St. Peter's in a big upset. The Gaels were big favorites in that game and they had the inside track to the NCAA Tournament following the loss by Fairfield but they failed to get the job done. Now they hit the road in the CIT and they are not too thrilled even though this is the first postseason appearance for Iona since 1996. The Gaels lost to the only Horizon League opponent they faced, a 10-point setback at Cleveland St. Valparaiso has been off since March 5th after it lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and it was a much needed break as it was nicked up with some lingering injuries. The Crusaders were hoping to get any postseason invite and they got it along with another home game on top of it. Valparaiso went 13-3 at home this season with one of those losses coming against Purdue early in the season. Quality home wins include victories against Cleveland St., Butler and Missouri St., all of which are in a postseason tournament. Crusaders head coach Home Drew put it in perspective. "We'd welcome an opportunity to compete in the postseason. We would like to reward this team for winning 23 games and finishing just one game out of the league title, and to help our team prepare for the future." This game has more meaning as this is actually a revenge game for Valparaiso as two years ago, the Gales hammered the Crusaders by 20 points in a Thanksgiving tournament in St. Thomas. Six current players were part of that debacle. The Crusaders offense is a solid one and it will be tough to stop. Valparaiso has shot 47.5 percent from the floor this season, tops in the Horizon League and 18th-best in the nation. The Crusaders are 24-6-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss and they are 10-3 ATS this season against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg. Meanwhile Iona is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a loss and that run continues here on the road on Wednesday. 3* Valparaiso Crusaders

Rocketman Sports

Duquesne vs. Montana
Play: Montana

Duquesne is 1-5 ATS this year after a loss against a conference opponent. Montana is 7-1 ATS last 3 years against good offensive teams scoring 77 points per game or more. Montana is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in first round tournament games. Montana is 13-1 SU at home this year where they are allowing only 55.5 points per game. Dukes are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. Dukes are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Dukes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Dukes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Dukes are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Dukes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Dukes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Dukes are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Dukes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Dukes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Dukes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Dukes are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. We'll recommend a small play on Montana tonight!

Craig Trapp

Missouri vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati

The perception is that Missouri is this really good up and down offensive powerhouse but that is just not the case when they leave their home court. Cincy is not the prettiest team to watch but their defense and rebounding just pounds teams into submission. This will be a slow down game and CIN rebounding will dominate this game. Should be CIN -5 in my opinion and still would like the Bearcats.

Ben Burns

Charlotte @ Houston
PICK: Over 200

True, the Bobcats are a little "offensively challenged." However, this number is still very low, for a game involving the Rockets.

The Rockets are off a (rare) low-scoring game vs. Phoenix on Monday, earning a 95-93 victory. Their previous five games averaged 217 combined points though, each producing a minimum of 207 combined points. For the season, Houston games are averaging a whopping 210.2 points.

Note that the "over" is a profitable 8-3 in Houston's last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

The Bobcats, who are off an "upset" win at Toronto, have seen two of their last three games finish above the total. They've seen the "over" go 10-3 the last 13 times that they were off a SU win, when listed as an underdog. Consider the Over.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

Miami has strung together three impressive performances, but I believe it is due for a letdown following Monday's 30-point blowout victory over the Spurs. The Thunder have won 7 of 8, and their last three wins have all come by double digits. They take a big step up in competition tonight, but I believe they'll be up for the challenge. Motivated by a 5-point home loss to Miami in January, and with Kendrick Perkins now in the lineup, expect OKC to give the Heat a game. The Thunder have dominated the East to the tune of 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the conference. They are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Heat, meanwhile, are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Taking a look at the head-to-head stats, we find that the road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Also, the Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami. We'll take the points here.

Rob Vinciletti

Duquesne vs. Montana
Play: Montana

Montana has cashed 7 of 8 vs teams who score 77 or more points per game, have cashed all 6 times in the first round of all tournaments the past few years are 7-2 after scoring 60 or less and 3-1 off a loss. Duquesne is 2-12 straight up in the first round off all tournaments and has failed to get the cash 5 of 6 times off a loss. Will go with Montana as the free Play tonight.

Ray Monohan

Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +6

While on paper this looks like an absolute mis-match of EPIC proportions. When I look a little closer I think the final score might surprise you in this one. Did you know the Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two? Orlando will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, (Can you say "Tired Legs"?) Milwaukee is coming off 2 brutal losses in the last 7 days. But they're fresher, and especially after that Boston game have a bounce back in them tonight at home. They have a ton to play for still as they are just 2 ½ games behind Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East. The teams have split two meetings this season, with each winning on its own court. Trends I like for this one include, Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.