Larry Ness
Iona @ Valparaiso
PICK: Over 148
First round action of the CollegeInsider.com tournament continues tonight when Valparaiso hosts Iona. This marks the first postseason appearance for the Gaels since they made the NCAA Tournament in 2006. The Gaels had an interesting season in 2010-11, posting winning streaks of seven, five and nine games on the year. The team’s nine-game winning streak ended in the MAAC championship game, 62-57 to St Peter’s, preventing the Gaels from going ‘dancing.’ I’m not sure they are thrilled about competing in this tourney, as well as having to travel to Indiana. Valpo owns a surprising 23 wins this season (11 losses), as Homer Drew's team had come off 9-22 and 15-17 seasons the previous two years. This is a meeting between two high-scoring teams, with Iona averaging 79.0 PPG (47.4% shooting) and Valpo 73.1 PPG (47.5% shooting). Iona is led by 6-7 JUCO transfer Glover, who averaged 18.2 PPG and 10.2 RPG while shooting 60.3%. Point guard Machado (13.6-3.9-7.5) is joined by three backcourt mates who add 10.1, 9.1 and 8.5 PPG. The 6-8 Rodriguez (6.6-6.8) joins Glover up front. Four of Valpo’s top-five scorers are guards, led by leading scorer Wood (17.0-4.4) and backcourt partner Broekhoff (10.4-5.1). The 6-7 Johnson (14.1-4.3) is the lone big-time performer in the frontcourt, joined by Van Wijk (5.2-2.3) and the 6-6 Rogers (5.0-3.1), neither of whom are very physical. Expect both of these teams to “get after it,” with neither have much luck stopping the other. Valpo has seen 10 of its last 13 games go over the total and I see little reason for that to change here. Play this game over.
David Chan
Washington Capitals @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings
I bet value where I see it and believe that the Detroit Red Wings will stifle the red hot Washington Capitals in their own barn:
The Caps have won nine-straight now after a 4-2 victory at Montreal last night, and have a five-point lead over the Lightning in the Southeast Division.
The Capitals are playing better defensively as a team; they are getting better play from Alexander Ovechkin, and have an emerging star with Braden Holtby between the pipes; however our sources have confirmed that Michael Neuvirth will be getting the start tonight in net.
But this is a spot that Washington has struggled in all season long, and I expect it to finally have a "letdown" here against this motivated home side (the Capitals are 7-9 [-5.6 units] in non-conference games this year; also 6-7 [-1.9 units] when playing on back to back days).
The Red Wings have won back to back games including a 5-3 win at St. Louis on Saturday in their last contest (note that Detroit is 6-3 [+1.3 units] when playing with three or more days rest).
Detroit is also playing better and wants to solidify its second spot in the West; although its had uncharacteristic difficulties at home this season, its penalty kill has gotten much better, staving off all four vs. the Blues on Saturday and allowing just four shots in the process.
Great line value; consider a play on the Detroit Red Wings tonight!
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Orlando @ Milwaukee
PICK: Milwaukee +6.5
Milwaukee has been one of the most offensively challenged teams the last few years, and its looked particularly inept over the last two games; on Sunday it lost 87-56 at Boston; last night it lost 110-85 to the Hawks.
Orlando stumbled in its 97-84 loss to the Lakers; the Magic are 1-5 ATS after playing three-consecutive road games this year.
The Bucks are 12-7 ATS when playing on back to back days.
These teams last played on January 5th and the Magic beat the Bucks 97-87 in Orlando; expect Milwaukee to play with a highly concerted effort in front of the home town crowd as it looks to both avenge that first loss to Orlando, and to atone for its recent lacklustre play of late.
Dan Bebe
Utah -6
Just because the revenge angle didn't work for one night doesn't mean we're going to abandon it altogether!
The Jazz lost by 21 in Minnesota just a few short days ago. They'll be ready for this one. And don't worry too much about the line movement - the Jazz have a number of injured players getting ruled in or out throughout the day.
Black Widow
1* on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5
The Sacramento Kings should not be this heavily favored against any team in the NBA. Sure, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the worst record in the league, but they aren't far behind Sacramento. The Kings are 16-49 on the season including 9-25 at home. Sacramento has played 7 straight games against teams in the playoff race, and after that stretch they are certainly primed for a letdown against the Cavaliers tonight. Sacramento is not going to be up for this game at all after facing a long stretch of quaility opponents. The Kings will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, while the Cavs play their 2nd game in 7 days and come in on 2 days' rest. The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Sacramento is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Take the Cavs and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Pacers/Celtics UNDER 195.5
This rested Boston team, which has held each of its last 3 opponents to 89 points or less, should find some success in slowing down a Pacers squad that will be fatigued having just played last night. Plus, Boston has had little trouble slowing down the Pacers. It has held them to 88 and 83 points respectively in 2 meetings this season. In addition, plays Under on any team (INDIANA) after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, against an opponent that has gone under the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, are 26-5 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are combing with their opponent to score an average of 190.7 points. Bet the Under.
Jack Jones
Pacers/Celtics UNDER 195
I believe there is a lot of value with this UNDER tonight between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has dropped three of their last four games and will be very hungry tonight to get back on the winning track. They remain one of the best defensive teams in the league and will be playing with a lot of intensity on this end of the floor. The Celtics allow just 91.2 PPG on the season. Boston is giving up only 84.8 PPG over their last five contests.
Boston's trouble have been on offense, where they are scoring just 88.8 PPG over their last 5 games and have managed 87 or less in three straight. The Indiana Pacers are a very tired team right now. Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days. After playing a shootout with New York last night, I see the Pacers coming out sluggish here which means a poor offensive performance. These teams have met twice this season, with Boston winning 95-83 and 99-88 for 178 and 187 combined points, respectively. This one won't reach 190, either. Bet the UNDER Wednesday.
Info Plays
3* Warriors +4
Reasons why Warriors will cover:
1) While Dirk Nowitzki is listed as probable for tonight's game, he really looked like he was in some pain last night, and with the Spurs on the schedule for Friday, we don't think we will see the same Dirk tonight, which also means we won't see the same Mavericks team.
2) The Warriors suffered a bad loss at Sacramento on Monday, but 21-13 at home this season, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
3) Dallas is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games, and only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. loss.
Teddy Covers
Cleveland @ Sacramento
PICK: Cleveland +9
There aren’t many bettors who look forward to wagering on the Cleveland Cavaliers these days – only the Wizards have been worse against the spread this year. And the Cavs have been complete no-shows in each of their last four games, losing all four by double digit margins.
Head coach Byron Scott is not amused: “I’m really starting to question what type of heart we have as a basketball team. I care about competing. I care about coming out every single night, going against an opponent that has a different color jersey on that’s trying to kick your butt - and not to respond to that is shocking and scary to me.”
Scott has called out the Cavs more than once this year, and we’ve seen Cleveland come through with some solid efforts following those outbursts. But more than anything, this bet is about fading the Sacramento Kings in this price range. The Kings have been money-losers at home all year. They are a 30% ATS proposition when laying points. And, as a favorite of five points or more, Sacramento is 0-fer the entire season.
We’re talking about a team with a losing SU record as a favorite – not just ATS! This is not a team to lay eight points with, even against the NBA’s worst. The first meeting between these two teams was decided by three points, and there’s no reason to think that tonight’s rematch will be any less competitive. 2* Take Cleveland
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +335 over VANCOUVER
Call this a “throw-away” bet or call it what you want but the price is just too good to pass up on and if we lose it, so be it. It’s also the perfect spot for an upset because the Canucks are going too good right now, they have some much bigger fish to fry with games against Phoenix, Detroit and San Jose on deck and they could absolutely figure all they need to do to win is show up. There’s just too much parity in this league to count anyone out and that includes the Av’s. Here’s a team that was in fourth place not long ago but countless injuries took a toll and so did losing. However, they get two key bodies back tonight in Petr Stastny and John-Michael Liles and that has to give them a psychological boost. Furthermore, the Canucks have some seriously banged up bodies on defense and again, it just sets up right for the visitor to come in here and catch an overly confident Canucks team napping. Price dictates play. Play: Colorado +335 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN –9½ over Wisc-Milwaukee
Despite the disappointment of not making the Dance, the Wildcats are hugely superior to this foe and should have no trouble whatsoever of putting them away. The Panthers reside in the very weak Horizon Conference and while they went 13-5 in the conference, that’s not as notable as the blowout losses they suffered on the road. Milwaukee lost by 21 at Wisconsin, by 12 at San Diego St., by 14 at DePaul, by 24 at Wright St., by 17 at Valparaiso, by 15 at Buffalo and they closed the season by losing to Butler at a neutral site by 15 in a game they scored 44 points in. NU lost a lot of close games to some very good teams in the Big-10. They nearly pulled off a big upset in the Big-10 Conference tourney over #1 seed Ohio St in a game that they took the Buckeyes into OT before losing it by six. The Wildcats have the benefit of playing at home and again, one cannot ignore the ineptitude of this very average Panther team when traveling. Play: Northwestern –9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Duquesne –102 over MONTANA
Teams that just missed participating in this year’s tourney got crushed yesterday. in the opening round of the NIT. Same situation applies here, as Montana lost to Northern Colorado in the Big Sky Final and instead of an automatic bid to the Madness they had to settle for consolation. Yesterday’s results had Harvard losing to Oklahoma St by 17, McNeese St. losing to Boston College by 18, Dayton losing by 10 at Charleston and St. Mary’s losing at home outright as a 12½-point choice to Kent St. Emotion appears to take over as yesterday’s results suggest a giant letdown for these college kids that were so close to their ‘fifteen minutes of fame.’ In addition to being subject to this letdown, Montana isn’t very good to begin with. They had one of the easiest schedules in all of Division-1 and went just 5-5 to close out the season. The Dukes, meanwhile, played in the very competitive A-10 Conference. They had a dreadful run to end the year but they were still #1 in the country in assists and finished fourth in the conference behind tournament teams Xavier, Richmond, and Temple. After playing that calibre and other decent A-10 clubs, facing this dejected squad should make this one into a walk in the park: Duquesne –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Wunderdog
VCU vs. USC
Pick: VCU +4
Virginia Commonwealth won 23 games on the season and were just on the plus side of the bubble for the big dance. This team will have a message to send playing a major conference team on the road and I expect their "A" game in this one. Remember, this is a team that beat UCLA on a neutral court and lost to NCAA Tourney bound Tennessee by just five, so they definitely have enough to be in this one to win it. USC has played better in the underdog role as their last ten as chalk has shown a losing record ATS. I like VCU in this one.