SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NIT
Northwestern (20-13, 18-9-1 ATS) at Rhode Island (23-9, 12-16-1 ATS)
The Wildcats alternated SU wins and losses over their last seven games, including a 73-58 rout of Indiana as an 8½-point favorite in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament Thursday followed by Friday’s 69-61 loss to Purdue, pushing as an eight-point pup. Not counting the neutral-site Big Ten tourney, Northwestern lost its final seven road games (all in conference), going 3-4 ATS.
Rhode Island seemed ticketed for an NCAA Tournament berth after starting the season 19-3. However, the Rams stumbled from mid-February on, losing six of their final 10. On Saturday, they faced top-seeded Temple in the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinals and got clocked 57-44 as a 3½-point underdog. With that result, Rhode Island enters the NIT in a 3-8 ATS funk (3-6 ATS as a favorite). Also, while the Rams have won 13 of 15 home games, they’re 3-9 ATS in lined contests as a host.
Northwestern made a rare postseason appearance last year, but it didn’t last long, as the Wildcats lost a first-round NIT contest at Tulsa 68-59 as a five-point underdog. Meanwhile, this is the Rams’ third straight NIT appearance, and they went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS combined the last two years, though all three were road games.
The Wildcats’ ATS trends are all over the map, as they’re on slides of 1-3-1 on the road, 1-4 against Atlantic 10 opponents and 2-5 on Wednesday. However, they’re also on pointspread surges of 17-7-1 overall, 5-0 in non-conference action, 8-0 after a SU loss, 13-3-1 versus winning teams, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 8-2-1 as a road pup.
Rhode Island is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 non-league games, but otherwise it is in pointspread funks of 3-8 overall, 4-14 at home (all as a favorite), 6-13-1 as a favorite anywhere and 1-5 when laying less than seven points at home.
Northwestern is on “over” runs of 13-3 overall, 6-0 on the road, 5-0 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup, 16-5 on Wednesday and 19-7 after a SU defeat. Conversely, the Rams carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-1 as a home chalk of less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
Nevada (20-12, 14-15 ATS) at Wichita State (25-9, 13-13-1 ATS)
The Wolf Pack’s three-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a halt in the semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament Friday, as they lost 80-79 to New Mexico State as a 5½-point home favorite. Nevada lost all four of its non-conference road games early in the season (1-3 ATS), giving up an average of 78.5 points per game.
Wichita State has been idle for 10 days, most recently suffering a 67-52 loss to top-seeded Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game, snapping a three-game winning streak. The Shockers failed to cover as a three-point underdog against Northern Iowa, and they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games (1-3 ATS at home). For the season, Wichita State is unbeaten in 17 home games (6-5 ATS in line action), and it is 26-1 in its last 27 as a host (10-9 ATS).
The Shockers played in the lower-tier College Basketball Invitational postseason tournament a year ago, going 1-1 SU and ATS, with both games played at home. Nevada also played in the CBI last year, losing 79-77 to UTEP as a two-point home favorite in the opening round.
The Wolf Pack are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 versus Missouri Valley foes, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 1-5 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 2-5 as a road pup, 0-5 as a road ‘dog of 7 to 12½ points and 2-7 on Wednesday. Wichita State has cashed in eight of 11 at home (all as a favorite), eight of 11 after a SU defeat and five of seven on Wednesday, but it is also in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 2-5 in non-conference games and 1-5 after a non-cover.
Nevada is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 when grabbing 7 to 12½ points on the road, and 4-0 against the Missouri Valley. However, the Shockers are on “over” streaks of 6-2 in non-league action, 4-1 on Wednesday and 20-7 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WICHITA STATE
St. John’s (17-15, 15-13-1 ATS) at Memphis (23-9, 10-17 ATS)
St. John’s started the season with six straight wins and was 10-2 SU by the time the Big East season kicked off on New Year’s Eve. However, things fell apart from there, as the Red Storm won just six of their final 19 games, including a tough 57-55 loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament quarterfinals a week ago tonight (though they covered as a four-point pup). On the bright side, St. John’s cashed in its final three games after a 4-8-1 ATS drought. Also, it won three of its last four true road games (SU and ATS), the only loss coming at then-top-ranked Syracuse.
After four straight strips to the Big Dance under former coach John Calipari – including two Elite Eight showings and an appearance in the 2007 national championship game – the Tigers have been relegated to the NIT for the first time since 2005. Despite ending the regular season on a 7-1 run (4-4 ATS), Memphis’ bubble burst when it lost to Houston 66-65 in the first round of the Conference USA tournament. The Tigers are 16-3 at the FedEx Forum this season, but just 5-9 ATS in lined games.
The last time Memphis went to the NIT, it advanced to the tournament semifinals. Meanwhile, last year St. John’s played in the CBI, losing a first-round game at Richmond 75-69, coming up just short as a five-point road underdog.
The Red Storm are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 in non-conference play and 3-1-1 after a spread-cover. On the downside, they’ve failed to cover in seven of 11 Wednesday contests, 20 of 28 as a ‘dog of 7 to 12½ points and 1-9 when catching that pointspread on the road.
Memphis has covered in 19 of 26 as a home chalk of 7 to 12½ points, but from there the Tigers carry negative ATS trends of 7-16 overall, 1-5 at home (all as a favorite), 0-6 in non-conference action and 4-9 after a non-cover.
It’s been all “unders” for St. John’s lately, including 4-0 in non-league play, 9-2-1 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 19-6-1 on Wednesday and 38-16-1 following an ATS win. On the flip side, Memphis is on “over” runs of 11-5 overall, 8-3 against Big East foes, 4-0 after a SU defeat, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. JOHN’S
NBA
San Antonio (39-25, 33-30-1 ATS) at Orlando (47-21, 36-31-1 ATS)
Two teams currently playing tremendous basketball clash at Amway Arena, as the Spurs complete a quick two-game Florida road trip with a showdown against the Magic.
San Antonio took a three-game SU and seven-game ATS winning streak to Miami last night and clobbered the Heat 88-76 as a two-point underdog. The Spurs, who jumped out to a 29-14 lead on Miami, are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine outings, and during this nine-game push, San Antonio is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road, the only setback being a 97-95 loss at Cleveland eight days ago. Still, yesterday’s victory in Miami pushed the Spurs just one game over .500 on the highway (16-15, 15-16 ATS).
Orlando’s season-high eight-game winning streak came to an end in Sunday’s 96-89 home loss to Charlotte as an 8½-point favorite. With the defeat, the Magic also saw a three-game overall ATS uptick and a six-game home winning streak (5-1 ATS) snapped. Still, going back to Jan. 20, Orlando is 21-6 SU and it hasn’t dropped consecutive games over this span. For the season, the Magic are 27-7 at Amway Arena (19-15 ATS).
The Magic ended a three-game SU and ATS losing skid to San Antonio last year, sweeping the season series with a 90-78 home win as a 2½-point chalk and a 105-98 road victory as a three-point underdog. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine meetings.
In addition to cashing in eight straight games overall and five straight on the road, the Spurs are on ATS surges of 10-1 against the Southeast Division, 5-1 as an underdog (all on the road) and 6-1 versus winning teams. The Magic have covered in five of seven at home and four straight on Wednesday, but they’re also in ATS funks of 2-8 against Southwest Division squads, 2-6 versus teams with a winning record and 0-4 when laying between five and 10½ points.
The Spurs are on “under” stretches of 6-1 overall, 15-6 on the road, 6-0 as a ‘dog (all on the highway), 11-3-1 in Eastern Conference games, 37-16-2 versus the Southeast Division, 8-1 versus winning teams, 3-1-1 on Wednesday and 18-7-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. Also, Orlando is riding “under” streaks of 24-8-1 overall, 15-5-1 at home, 36-16-1 against the Western Conference, 7-1 versus the Southwest Division, 7-1 when playing after two days off, 4-1 on Wednesday, 22-6-1 as a favorite and 8-1 as a chalk of five to 12½ points.
However, the over has cashed in seven of the last nine Spurs-Magic battles in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
John Ryan
Duquesne at Princeton
Prediction: Princeton
3* graded play on Princeton as they take on Dequesne set to start at 7:00 EST in the CBI Tournament. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Princeton will win this game by a minimum of 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-25 ATS for 67% winners since 2004. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games and is a team winning between 51% to 60% of their games and now playing a winning team. Princeton defense is projected to keep Duquesne from hitting over 40% from the field. Note that in past games where Princeton allowed a shooting percentage within this range they are 8-2 ATS this season, 12-4 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 39-19 ATS since 1997. When Duquesne hits between 34 to 39% in a game they are 1-3 ATS this season, 2-11 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 18-59 ATS since 1997. The pace of game favors Princeton as well. They are 3-0 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS the past 3 seasons when they attempt between 54 and 62 shots. As a result, Duquense is projected to score between 55 and 60 points and when they score within this range they are 0-3 ATS, 0-5 ATS, and 8-34 ATS since 1997. Take Princeton.
David Chan
Minnesota @ Utah
Pick: Minnesota +15
This is one of those bets that needs to be made—and likely not watched. Minnesota is terrible, and playing a superior team, all on no rest. They might lose by 35.
But hang on a minute. 15 points is a lot in this league, and Minnesota is a respectable 8-9 on the second day of back to back games. Stunningly, the clubs have played three times this season and the T-Wolves won the first two games SU and covered the third losing 107-103 as a 7.5-point home dog. The T-Wolves also covered three games out of four in 2008-09.
The stats say the number is probably fine, but this is a situational wager where we need to close our eyes and pat the dog. When the final horn sounds, we’ll feel like suckers or supermen.
Jim Feist
San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic
Play: San Antonio Spurs +7½
Second of a back to back spot for the Spurs, but this team has been playing well, both straight up and against the spread. They have been great as a dog, winning at Memphis by 10 as a dog, plus winning at Denver as a +6 dog and at New Orleans as a dog. Orlando is 2-2 ATS its last 4 home games, including a straight up loss the last game to Charlotte as a big favorite. San Antonio knows how to play defense and will look to control the tempo and keep it close. Play the Spurs.
James Patrick Sports
Wisconsin Green Bay vs. Akron
Zips HC Keith Dambrot has nearly every player of consequence from last season's NCAA Tournament team that lost in the 1st round to Gonzaga back on the court and non-conference teams that come to the Rubber City to play the Zips at James Rhodes Arena rarely leave with a smile on their face. Defense is a trademark of Dambrot teams and although this is not an imposing Akron team as far as size is concerned, they take care of the ball and can shoot it well. The Phoenix however get a crack at the Zips at the perfect time as for the second year in a row Akron is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the MAC Tournament Championship Game and we doubt if Akron will bring their "A" game here. Wisconsin Green Bay was knocked out of this tournament on their home floor a year ago and they have had a couple of weeks off since their final Horizon League Tournament Game. WGB has won (10) games on the road this season and we expect them to put up a solid fight and take the Zips to the limit here. Big Game James St. Patrick's Day selection is Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix in the CBI Tournament Opening Round.
DUNKEL INDEX
Milwaukee at LA Clippers
The Bucks look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Milwaukee is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4)
Game 611-612: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 114.345; Philadelphia 114.672
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 613-614: Atlanta at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.777; Toronto 112.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 615-616: Indiana at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.346; Cleveland 127.149
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 209
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+13); Under
Game 617-618: Oklahoma City at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.887; Charlotte 117.266
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1 1/2); Over
Game 619-620: New York at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.418; Boston 119.078
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: New York (+9 1/2); Over
Game 621-622: San Antonio at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.528; Orlando 127.419
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7 1/2); Under
Game 623-624: Memphis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.578; Houston 120.196
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 625-626: Chicago at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.707; Dallas 125.564
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 15; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 627-628: Minnesota at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.830; Utah 124.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 15; 214
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+15); Over
Game 629-630: New Orleans at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.063; Golden State 117.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 229
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-3); Under
Game 631-632: Milwaukee at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 124.520; LA Clippers 111.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 13; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 192
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4); Under
NCAAB
Troy at Mississippi
The Trojans look to take advantage of a Mississippi team that is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games against teams with a winning SU record. Troy is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Rebels favored by only 12. Dunkel Pick: Troy (+14)
Game 633-634: Illinois State at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 61.320; Dayton 68.589
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 7
Vegas Line: Dayton by 8
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+8)
Game 635-636: Weber State at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 58.162; Cincinnati 67.191
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+10 1/2)
Game 637-638: Northwestern at Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.137; Rhode Island 63.076
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 1
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 5
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+5)
Game 639-640: Quinnipiac at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 52.752; Virginia Tech 70.683
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 18
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-13 1/2)
Game 641-642: Tulsa at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.549; Kent State 61.828
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Kent State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+4)
Game 643-644: Nevada at Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 57.763; Wichita State 66.353
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-7 1/2)
Game 645-646: Troy at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 55.289; Mississippi 67.138
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 12
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 14
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+14)
Game 647-648: St. John's at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 64.423; Memphis 68.597
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 4
Vegas Line: Memphis by 7
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+7)
Game 649-650: Illinois at Stony Brook
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 66.063; Stony Brook 59.055
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 7
Vegas Line: Illinois by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-6 1/2)
Game 653-654: Duquesne at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 54.611; Princeton 60.410
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 6
Vegas Line: Princeton by 5
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-5)
Game 655-656: WI-Green Bay at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 55.598; Akron 60.403
Dunkel Line: Akron by 5
Vegas Line: Akron by 7
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (+7)
Game 657-658: IUPUI at Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 59.969; Hofstra 64.366
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 3
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (-3)
Game 659-660: College of Charleston at Eastern Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 56.284; Eastern Kentucky 55.077
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 1
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+2 1/2)
Game 661-662: Colorado State at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 57.108; Morehead State 61.292
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 4
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+8)
Game 663-664: Boston U at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 56.708; Oregon State 65.662
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 9
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-7 1/2)
Game 665-666: Harvard at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.074; Appalachian State 59.840
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-1 1/2)
Game 667-668: Middle Tennessee State at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 56.295; Missouri State 63.058
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 7
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+9)
Game 669-670: Portland at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 60.908; Northern Colorado 58.100
Dunkel Line: Portland by 3
Vegas Line: Portland by 1
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-1)
Game 671-672: Pacific at Loyola-Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 56.753; Loyola-Marymount 60.615
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 4
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount
NHL
Calgary at Colorado
The Flames look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Calgary is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+100)
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.585; New Jersey 11.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Calgary at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.990; Colorado 12.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+100); Under
Game 55-56: Chicago at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.114; Anaheim 10.458
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Tom Freese
Saint John's at Memphis
Memphis is 23-9 this year. Guard Elliot Williams scores 18.3 points a game. Forward Wesley Witherspoon scores. Guard Roburt Sallie scores 10.8 points a game. Guard Doneal Mack scores 10.3 points a game. The Tigers score 75.3 points a game. Memphis is 1-7 ATS their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 7-16 ATS their last 23 games overall. Saint John's is 17-15. Forward D.J. Kennedy scores 15 points and 6 rebounds a game. He also shoots 38% from behind the arc. Guard Dwight Hardy scores 10.5 points a game while shooting 38% from behind the arc. Guard Paris Horne scores 9.2 points a game. Four other players score between 6.8 and 6.2 points a game. Saint John's scores 67.2 points a game. The Red Storm is 5-1 ATS their last 5 road games and they are 5-2 ATS their 7 Non-Conference games. PLAY ON SAINT JOHN'S +
EZWINNERS
Boston Celtics -9.5
The Celtics played one of their best games of the year in their last outing against Detroit and I look for that excellent play to carry over into this game tonight against the Knicks. This is the last game of a five game road trip for New York and the Knicks are only 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six trips to Bean Town. Boston appears to be getting their act together for the playoffs as they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite and how do you bet against the Celtics on St. Patrick's day? LOL! Lay the points.
Sac Lawson
Rhode Island -5 vs Northwestern
Not many mid-major teams can match the size of Northwestern, but URI is a team that definitely can. There is some great size on both sides of the ball tonight, although I'd say URI has the athletic advantage . That being said, I think the rebounding will be even, and defensively there shouldn't be too many mismatches. Fact is this though, URI can flat out score, especially at home. They'll push the tempo if given the opportunity, in fact, they score 83 points per game at home this year. Northwestern, being out of the Big Ten, obviously doesn't want to play that way.. but for whatever reason, when they travel, they get burned on defense, giving up 74 ppg which is 13 more than they give up at home.
I simply cannot justify backing Northwestern when they haven't won a road game in two months. They've had tons of bad road losses in conference play, and today they face a Rhode Island team that is, quite frankly, more talented, more athletic, and has just as much size. To summarize...the difference is athleticism, ability to score at home (or inability to stop people on the road), and a complete lack of road success in general for Northwestern.
Rhode Island is led by three dynamic seniors, there is no way they'll go down lightly in what would be their final home game, and final game overall in the event they lose. Northwestern plays a lot of young guys, and no doubt they're looking toward the future. I heard my buddy Mike Hook say this yesterday about Fairfield (a team with a few senior leaders), and it holds the same weight today for Rhode Island.. This is a team playing in the NOW, they've got senior leaders and this may be the last year for them to have some tournament success for a couple seasons... Northwestern, on the other hand, is looking down the road at a better year next year, they only lose one senior, so they have a lot of improving to do. Take URI to keep this season going, and hell, maybe make a run at this tournament title!
Larry Ness
Rhode Island -5 vs Northwestern
The Rams were 19-3 on Feb 6 and the A-10 was talking about placing five teams in the Big Dance. It wasn't to be and Rhode Island (along with Charlotte and Dayton) were the teams that fell off down the stretch. One always has to try to measure what a team has left for the NIT, after failing in its bid to go 'dancing' and that's the case with the Rams. However, this program is getting used to the NIT, as Rhode Island hasn't been to the NCAA tourney since the 1998-99 season, which represented the last year of a three-year run (made it to the Elite 8 in '98). This will be Rhode Island's fifth NIT over the last seven years (third straight) and Jim Baron's team has what it takes to make a deep run. The team goes eight-deep and the core is a veteran group, led by senior guard Cothran (14.6), 6-8 junior James (12.4-5.3), 6-6 senior Ulmer (11.8-7.3) and 7-0 junior Martell (7.4-4.8). Northwestern is making its second straight NIT appearance (just fifth in school history) and the Wildcats remain the ONLY school from one of the six power conferences to have NEVER made an NCAA appearance. The 6-8 Shurna (18.3-6.4) is very good and the 6-11 Mirkovic (7.3-5.7) has the size to match Martell. Northwestern has a solid perimeter game led by guards Thompson (13.9-4.1 APG) and Nash (9.1-3.1 APG) plus freshman swingman Crawford (10.0-4.1). While Rhode Island did not win by a margin at home this year (13-2 SU but 3-9 ATS), Northwestern was just 2-8 SU on the road and the line in this contest makes this game very "coverable." Take the Rams, as Northwestern's modest postseason history remains modest.
Rocketman
St. John's @ Memphis
Play: Memphis -6.5
St John's comes in with a 17-15 record overall this year while Memphis is 23-9 on the season. St John's is 1-6 ATS last 3 years as road underdogs of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Memphis is 165-115 ATS since 1997 when playing against a team with a winning record. Memphis is 104-64 ATS since 1997 when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Memphis is 16-3 SU at home this year where they are scoring 78.4 points per game while allowing only 60.9 points per game. We'll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz
We went against Minnesota yesterday and watched them give up 152 points in Phoenix. Now, with no rest, they head to Utah. There is no venue in the league tougher for visitors to play in with no rest than this one. Utah is 10-0 ATS this season at home when playing with rest and hosting an unrested visitor. Their average margin of victory in these games is nearly 20 points per game and they have averaged 112 PPG.
Play on: Utah
Matt Fargo
St John's vs. Memphis U
Play: St. John’s +6.5
Memphis goes from the National Runner-Up two years ago to the Sweet 16 last year to the NIT this year. I’m sure the Tigers are real fired up for this one and the fans are right behind them. This is a huge disappointment for Memphis. Coming into the season we knew things were not going to be anything like the past few seasons as the Tigers lost a ton of talent as well as head coach john Calipari who bolted for Kentucky in lieu of a possible investigation into the Memphis program whether he admits it or not. The Tigers still had a very good season, going 23-9 overall including 13-4 in C-USA. Those are normally good enough records for teams to get into the NCAA Tournament but not in this case. Taking nothing away from C-USA, who had some good talent in it this season, but it is still a weak conference and for Memphis to bow out in the quarterfinal round of the conference tournament, is pretty bad plain and simple. The tigers had no quality wins this season as they went 1-7 against teams that are currently in the Big Dance and that one win was against Houston. Even worse is that two of those losses came against Houston as well. A second place finish in that conference is equivalent to where St. John’s finished in the Big East Conference in my opinion. St. John’s made a strong run toward the end of the season as it went 5-5 in its last 10 games. That included two losses to Marquette by two points each and a loss to Pittsburgh by just seven points. It also included wins over Louisville and Notre Dame as well as a blowout of Connecticut in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. The Red Storm did make progress this season as they went from playing in the CBI Tournament to playing in the NIT but rumors are that it still might not save head coach Norm Robert’s job. It is up to the players, who respect and play hard for Roberts, to keep winning and save his job. This game comes down to who wants it more and that is an easy answer. It will also help knowing that the Red Storm are much deeper and much more physical and that will wear down Memphis with a style it does not prefer to play with. Memphis continues to be overpriced as it is 7-16 ATS this season as a favorite while St. John’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. 3* St. John’s Red Storm
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Thunder/Bobcats UNDER 190
Both of these teams are very strong defensively with the Bobcats only allowing 91.3 points per game on their home floor and the Thunder only giving up 97.3 points per game on the road. You also have to like the fact that plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), are 46-18 since 1996, including 14-2 over the last 3 seasons. And we are only seeing an average of 188.4 total points scored in these games. The Bobcats have played to the Under in 8 of their last 10, and with Gerald Wallace listed as doubtful, they are likely to be without a significant amount of points tonight. The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams and we'll take it for 1 unit here.
JR O'Donnell
Northwestern vs. Rhode Island
Play: Rhode Island -5
Jr O goes to the 23-9 Rams tonight as this is a huge gut move for us , We are not sold on the Wildcats on the road tonight who rely heavy on the on the 3. We note that the Cats have a terrible road record 2-8 ats with ugly losses to the Hooisers 88-80 & Nit Lions 79-60 (ouch). The Cats will get killed on the boards tonight, The pure fact that the Rams succeed in transition and vs the Owls last game they had only one fast break bucket and sharp shooter Akeeem Richmond went 0-5 last game from the 3 puts the Rams in a nasty mood. They get out and run tonight.