Stan Lisowski
ORLANDO
The Magic are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS at home off of a loss this season. They catch San Antonio playing back-to-back on the road, a situation that has seen them drop 4 of 6 this season, both outright and to the number. Orlando is 30-15 against the Western Conference.
THE PREZ
Bucks / Clippers Under 192
The Milwaukee Bucks may be the hottest team in the NBA right now, and am improved defense has been a contributing factor. Look for that defense to key a safe Under when the visit the struggling Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
The Bucks are 12-1 straight up in their last 13 games with the only loss coming by four points in overtime at Atlanta. What is most impressive about this streak is that they have only allowed 100 points twice in the 13 games, and one of those was in the overtime loss where the Hawks were only at 92 after regulation. Milwaukee had kept five straight opponents below 90 points before allowing 94 to the Pacers on Sunday.
Now the Clippers only average 95.5 points per game as it is, so they should have a tough time reaching 90 points given the current form the Bucks are in. The Clips did score exactly 100 points vs. the defenseless New Orleans Hornets on Monday, but that snapped a streak of six straight games of not reaching the century mark, and it seems highly unlikely that the Clippers score 100 points tonight either.
Well, it is difficult for a game to go Over a total in the 190s when only one team does most of the scoring, so the Under seems like the logical play in this spot.
LT PROFITS
Harvard +1.5
The Harvard Crimson finished at 21-7 this season, and while yes they play in the Ivy League, that conference is on par with the Southern Conference that their opponents, the Appalachian State Mountaineers come out of.
Harvard was a good road team this season, going 10-5 with two of the losses coming at Connecticut by just six points and at Georgetown. The Crimson even have an impressive road win at Boston College, which is much better win than any win Appalachian State has on its schedule. Harvard had a positive average winning margin on the road of +2.7 points per game, and that margin looks better when you consider they lost by 16 at Georgetown.
Now the Mountaineers finished at 22-12, but they only have one win vs. a team that is ranked in the top 100 by Pomeroy, that being Wofford at only 87. As a result, their overall Strength of Schedule ranks only 219 out of 347 Division 1 teams, and even with that schedule, they managed to lose to Furman (Pomeroy rank 247) and The Citadel (196) here at home, as well as a terrible home loss to a non-lined opponent called King College!
We simply feel that Harvard is the better team here, and given their road record and the bad home losses that Appalachian has suffered, we feel that the better talent will trump home court here.
Karl Garrett
NewYork (+9') at BOSTON
Good old St. Patrick's Day, but the last time I checked Red Auerbach is no longer puffing cigars in the stands in Beantown.
That being said, the G-Man likes what he is seeing from the Knicks of late, as New York comes into Boston off back-to-back road outright wins at Dallas and Philadelphia, and the Knicks are 5-2-1 against the spread their last 8 games overall.
The line tonight is a little inflated based on Boston's Monday night home rout of Detroit by double-digits, but the fact remains the Celts are just 9-22-1 against the spread at home this season. That number includes a New York cover the last time they paid a visit on February 23rd, losing by just 4 as the 9 1/2-point underdog.
The Knicks have covered the last pair, and 3 of the last 4 in this series, and I will back them plus the points tonight to stay inside of this roomy impost.
Play the Knickerbockers plus the points.
2♦ NEW YORK
Illinois State (+7') at DAYTON
G-Man wants no parts of Dayton laying the big number this Tuesday night, even at home.
Just as I told you last night with my premium play release against Connecticut, you can just tell when it is time to go against some schools, and as UConn had that look last night laying the big number, Dayton has that look tonight.
The Flyers really flamed-out down the stretch, losing 6 of their final 9 games straight up, while going a money-burning 1-7-1 against the spread in those 9 outings.
With a 15-2 straight up mark at home, there is a chance Dayton will get up for the win, but I doubt they are covering this affair.
The Redbirds did close with some momentum, winning 7 of their last 9 games, and they were also able to go 6-2 against the spread their last 8 when getting points.
Take Illinois State plus the points.
3♦ ILLINOIS STATE
Derek Mancini
San Antonio at ORLANDO (-7)
Back-to-back Freebie winners with the Rockets Monday, and Texas Tech last night! Wednesday we're going back to the NBA, and we're laying some chalk with the Magic at home.
Spurs have won 9 of their last 10, and all of a sudden gamblers can't wait to take them in this spot. Big mistake. Don't be fooled by San Antonio's recent win streak, because they're still a shell of their former selves. Who cares if they beat the Knicks, Timberwolves, Clippers and Heat over their 4-game win streak?
What happened when they faced an elite team like the Cavaliers Mar 8th? Or what about road losses at the Lakers and Trail Blazers last month? Spurs just aren't good enough to hang with the NBA's elite, especially on the road, and their 15-16 record ATS away doesn't inspire much confidence.
Magic are also playing well (winning 8 of their L10), but like the Spurs have benefited from an easy schedule over that span. Difference is we've seen how well this Orlando team plays at Amway Arena all season, 27-7 SU and 19-15 ATS! A home loss to Charlotte in their last game is the final nail in the coffin, as Van Gundy's boys bring a little extra motivation following that ugly upset loss. Lay the points, as the Magic expose the Spurs once again (just like they did in San Antonio Jan.11th)!
3♦ ORLANDO
Chris Jordan
Chicago at DALLAS (-14)
The Mavericks are playing awfully good basketball right now, and here come the weary Bulls without Derrick Rose, who has been ruled out with an injured wrist.
This will be their fourth consecutive road game and the second in as many nights, as the Bulls lost in Memphis last night, 104-97. They roll into Big D mired in an eight-game losing streak and simply too dinged up to compete with one of best performing teams right now.
Dallas is well-rested, as it has had the last three days off after suffering their worst home loss of the season in a 34-point setback Saturday against the Knicks, a loss that ended the team's 13-game winning streak.
Think the Mavs, who are 13-2 since the All-Star break, might be a little mad?
Chicago is mired in ATS skids of 1-4 on the road, 1-6 after a straight-up loss and 1-7 overall.
Lay the home chalk in this one.
2♦ MAVERICKS
Chuck O'Brien
Weber State (+10') at CINCINNATI
Take Weber State plus the points at Cincinnati in NIT action on Wednesday.
If not for inexcusably blowing a 20-point halftime lead on its home court last week and losing by a single point to Montana in the Big Sky tournament championship game, Weber State would be preparing for a Big Dance game right now. No question that defeat had to sting, but when you come from the Big Sky, you relish any chance to play in the postseason (especially against a Big East squad like Cincinnati). So I’m not worried about Weber State’s mindset tonight.
Besides, this is a team that twice played Utah State (an NCAA Tournament team) very tough and also gave UNLV (another Tournament team) a tough time on the road in Vegas. On top of that, Weber State has had just two double-digit losses all season (one by 14 points at Montana in the regular season, one by 17 at BYU – again, two Tournament teams).
Cincinnati started strong (four straight wins, including over Vanderbilt and Maryland in consecutive games in the Maui Invitational), but it faded from there (16-15 finish). More importantly, after starting the season 3-0 ATS, the Bearcats were a pointspread disaster, covering in just six of their final 25 lined games. Yes, two of those spread-covers came in last week’s Big East tournament, but both were as an underdog. As a favorite, Cincinnati has failed to cash eight straight times!
More from the pointspread angle: Weber State is on ATS runs of 40-18-1 overall, 22-10 on the road, 35-16 as an underdog, 41-13 against teams with a winning record and 25-6-1 when coming off a loss. Cincinnati is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games (1-10 this year), 1-12 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games, 6-16 ATS in its last 22 against teams with a winning record and 5-17 in its last 22 as a lofty favorite (7 to 12½ points).
5♦ WEBER STATE
Stephen Nover
Northwestern at RHODE ISLAND (-5)
I'm going for my fourth straight winning complementary selection, and believe I've found out it in an opening-round NIT matchup between Northwestern and Rhode Island.
I like the Rams playing at home, where they've gone 13-2. Northwestern is 2-8 on the road.
Rhode Island's starting lineup is composed of all seniors and juniors. Northwestern has only one healthy senior.
The Rams are participating in the NIT for the third consecutive year. This is their first NIT home game since 2004. Northwestern has never qualified for the Big Dance. The Wildcats last won a postseason game in 1994.
Rhode Island is playing well. The Rams posted victories against Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament before being eliminated by a very good Temple squad.
"I thought the Saint Louis game (in the conference quarterfinals) was one of the best all-around games we've had all year," Rhode Island coach Jim Baron was quoted as saying. "We're still getting better."
The Rams know how to take care of the ball. They finished fourth in the nation in turnover margin at plus 4.5. They also were eighth in turnovers per possession. They match up well to Northwestern, whose main defense is a 1-3-1 zone built to force turnovers.
The Rams have height with 7-footer Will Martell, while Northwestern's center, Luka Mirkovic, is battling a bad back.
2♦ RHODE ISLAND
Michael Cannon
St. John's (+6') at MEMPHIS
I am 11-5 with my last 16 overall free plays.
Take the points with St. John’s tonight on the road over Memphis.
This has to be a bit of a disappointment for the Tigers. They had gone to the Tournament four straight times under former coach John Calipari and believed they would be heading back this year, but a first-round loss in the C-USA tournament burst their bubble.
Now they have to find a way to get up for this contest against a game St. John’s team.
The Red Storm finished the season strong, cashing in their final three games. They suffered a tough 57-55 loss to Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. But prior to that, St. John’s had won seven of its eight final regular season games.
Memphis is just 5-9 ATS at the FedEx Forum this year, while St. John’s is on pointspread runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road dog, 5-2 in non-conference play and 3-1-1 after a spread-cover.
Take the points with St. John’s as they stay within the number.
3♦ ST. JOHN'S
Bobby Maxwell
Boston University at OREGON ST. (-7')
I'm on a 67-39-3 run with my FREE plays and tongiht I've got a college hoops winner for you on Oregon State as the Beavers host Boston University in the most junior of postseason tourneys, the CBI.
I’ve watched Oregon State get better and better this season and at home they have really performed well. And tonight you’ll see a team that is just in a higher class that Boston University. Oregon State will get the win and cover at home in this one.
They went 3-2 in their last five at home, but that included a blowout of rival Oregon as a 1 ½-point favorite and a win over Pac-10 regular-season champ Cal as a six-point pup. The Beavers gave up just 61.1 points a game this season at home and they went 7-5 ATS. Boston shot just 40 percent from the field when they went on the road and in their season-finale at Vermont on Saturday they lost 83-70 as a five-point underdog.
Oregon State lost in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney on Thursday, falling 59-52 to eventual champion Washington as a nine-point ‘dog. This team really came on the second half of the Pac 10 season and became a tough team to deal with at home.
The Beavers have been a solid team to wager on, currently on ATS streaks of 11-2 in non-conference games, 24-8 overall, 11-5 at home and 6-1 after a straight-up loss.
Boston has to go across the country and play a tough team that locks down on defense. Lay the chalk and play the Beavers tonight.
3♦ OREGON ST.
Jeff Benton
How about that outright free-play NIT winner on Texas Tech (5♦) last night? So I enter Wednesday on runs of 38-20-2, 28-14-2, 25-13-2 and 19-10-2 with plays that I’m giving away! Let’s keep it rolling by returning to the NIT and backing Wichita State minus the points against Nevada.
I don’t trust the Wolf Pack on the road, simple as that. They went 4-9 in true road contests this year, and all four road wins came against Western Athletic Conference opponents (if you followed college hoops this year, you know that outside of New Mexico State and Utah State, the WAC sucks). When you look at Nevada’s four non-conference road games, you’ll find a 13-point loss at UNLV, a nine-point loss at VCU, a three-point loss at Pacific and a seven-point loss at North Carolina.
At the time, the latter defeat looked like a quality one. Then the season played out and we discovered the Tar Heels weren’t very good at all. Still, even though Nevada covered as a 15-point underdog at Carolina, it still went just 1-3 ATS in non-conference roadies.
Meanwhile, Wichita State is a perfect 17-0 at home this season, including a nine-point win over Missouri Valley champ Northern Iowa (a legit Top 25 team that dominated the MVC this season). In those 17 home wins, Wichita averaged 74.2 points per game on 46 percent shooting and gave up 59.6 ppg on 41.8 percent shooting. Compare that to Nevada’s road stats (outscored 75.7-71.8 and outshot 44.6 percent to 43.9 percent).
The Shockers, who have covered in eight of their last 11 home games (all as a chalk), actually have the chops to win the NIT, and they’ll enter this game highly motivated. Conversely, Nevada is likely still stinging from Friday’s one-point loss to New Mexico State (on Nevada’s home court!) in the semifinals of the WAC tournament. As a result, I highly question whether the Wolf Pack (who played in the CBI last March and lost a home game to UTEP) will even bother to show up tonight.
6♦ WICHITA STATE
Scott Delaney
Northwestern at Rhode Island
Just looking at these two teams' dramatic home/road records give you a clear indication who should win this game.
The Rams are 13-2 at home while the Wildcats are 2-8 on the road.
But why will the home team cover the handful? I like the flow this team plays with, and the experience the team brings to the court.
Rhode Island starts three seniors and two juniors who excel at ball-handling, as they rate eighth nationally in turnovers per possession.
That easily the neutralizes the effectiveness of Northwestern's 1-3-1 zone, which tends to work best on teams with minimal preparation time. Such is not the case here.
The Rams, the second seed in this region, have had a few days to prepare for this one, as they come in after losing to Temple in the Atlantic 10 tournament, 57-44, last Saturday.
Rhode Island was an impressive 23-9 this season thanks to a defense that gets it done with plenty of steals and a large number of forced turnovers.
The Rams were one of the last teams left out of the Big Dance and get the edge on their home court. They'll come into this one with something to prove.
2♦ RHODE ISLAND
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks. I touted the Grizzlies as my free play last night... and for three quarters it appeared well within my reach. But Memphis called off the dogs in the 4th quarter and were outscored 30-19 to ruin a perfectly good free play cover. That WON'T happen tonight. Dallas is ticked. They're ticked because they ended a 13-game winning streak with a loss to lowly New York at home. They're ticked because they allowed Denver to take a half-game lead in the race for the Western Conference second seed. They're ticked because despite their recent run, they still can't catch the Lakers. And I expect that frustration to be taken out on an under-manned Chicago team tonight. Yes, I do realize the Mavs are without Jason Terry, but that's nothing compared to what Chicago is dealing with. Kirk Hinrich might play. Luol Deng, Derrick Rose, and Joakim Noah are either questionable, doubtful, or out. Brad Miller isn't even 100%. This is just a bad spot against a good team. Chicago is in trouble from the get-go. Dallas wins by 14.
2♦ DALLAS
Brett Atkins
It's off to the NBA hardwood for a free winner Wednesday night as I am loving Oklahoma City as the Thunder visit Charlotte to take on the Bobcats.
Charlotte is playing a back-to-back after falling in Indianapolis on Tuesday so the Bobcats return home with tired legs and have to face the Thunder who haven't played since a 119-111 win over Utah on Sunday, when they cashed as a three-point home chalk.
The Thunder have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and they are getting great team play, led by Kevin Durant who puts up big point totals seeming every night. Then on Sunday Russell Westbrook tore up the Jazz and All-Star PG Deron Willaims for 30 points and 13 assists.
These two teams met back on Dec. 26 with Oklahoma City scoring a 98-91 home win as a six-point home favorite. The Thunder also carry ATS runs of 17-7 on the road, 21-8-1 as a road favorite and 10-1 as a favorite of up to 4 1/2 points.
Look for the Thunder to pull away in the second half and win this one by 11.
5♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Jay McNeil
Going to play a home pup tonight, as I like Stony Brook catching points against Illinois.
The 22-9 Seawolves were 13-3 in America East Conference play and comes in ranked eighth in the tournament. The 22 regular season victories and 13 in-conference victories were the most in school history.
As for Illinois, it comes into this event after having its bubble burst on Sunday and then found out it was having to play on the road, even though it is the higher seed. The Illni, who lost six of their last eight games, were bumped from Assembly Hall, as Cirque du Soleil is in town.
Thus, they'll visit a hungry Seawolves team that is elated to be in the postseason and is in a prime position to take advantage of a jilted Illinois team.
Illinois junor Bill Cole said: "It'll be tough to get out of the mindset of disappointment and get into the preparation and mindset it takes to win a tournament."
I'll play the home dog here.
2♦ STONY BROOK