Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 20

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

James Madison vs. LIU-Brooklyn
The Blackbirds look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games versus teams with a winning record. LIU-Brooklyn is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackbirds favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: LIU-Brooklyn (-1 1/2)

Game 623-624: James Madison vs. LIU-Brooklyn (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 53.256; LIU-Brooklyn 57.353
Dunkel Line: LIU-Brooklyn by 4; 140
Vegas Line: LIU-Brooklyn by 1 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: LIU-Brooklyn (-1 1/2); Under

Game 625-626: LaSalle vs. Boise State (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 66.642; Boise State 65.933
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 1; 144
Vegas Line: Boise State by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (+2); Over

Game 627-628: Indiana State at Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 57.938; Iowa 69.192
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 11 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa by 12 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+12 1/2); Over

Game 629-630: Charlotte at Providence (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 57.375 Providence 65.783
Dunkel Line: Providence by 8 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Providence by 9 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+9 1/2); Under

Game 631-632: Stony Brook at Massachusetts (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 59.119; Massachusetts 65.487
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 6 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 4 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-4 1/2); Under

Game 633-634: Mercer at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 59.384; Tennessee 65.457
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 128
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mercer (+9); Over

Game 635-636: Long Beach State at Baylor (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 53.621; Baylor 64.401
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 11; 155
Vegas Line: Baylor by 12 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+12 1/2); Over

Game 637-638: Charleston Southern at Southern Mississippi (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charleston Southern 51.124; Southern Mississippi 67.521
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 16 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 13 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-13 1/2); Under

Game 639-640: Detroit at Arizona State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 59.356; Arizona State 65.053
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 5 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 4; 153
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-4); Under

Game 647-648: Western Illinois at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 649-650: Richmond at Bryant (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 59.363; Bryant 55.714
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 3 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Richmond by 5 1/2; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bryant (+5 1/2); Over

Game 651-652: Tulsa at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 54.087; Wright State 60.676
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 6 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Wright State by 5; 127
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-5); Under

Game 653-654: North Dakota State at Western Michigan (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 57.427; Western Michigan 56.344
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 1; 128
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 1 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 655-656: Texas at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 61.860; Houston 56.709
Dunkel Line: Texas by 5; 144
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-2 1/2); Under

Game 659-660: Elon at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.282; Canisius 59.486
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 9; 139
Vegas Line: Canisius by 7; 143
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-7); Under

Game 661-662: South Alabama at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 52.521; Tulane 57.032
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Tulane by 6 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+6 1/2); Over

Game 663-664: WI-Green Bay at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 56.745; Bradley 55.349
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 1 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Pick; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay; Over

Game 665-666: Chicago State at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 44.769; Illinois-Chicago 57.551
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 13; 127
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 11 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-11 1/2); Under

Game 667-668: Oral Roberts at TX-Arlington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 52.594; TX-Arlington 55.243
Dunkel Line: TX-Arlington by 2 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: TX-Arlington by 4 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (+4 1/2); Under

Game 669-670: Cal Poly at Weber State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 56.390; Weber State 61.640
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Weber State by 6 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+6 1/2); Over

Game 671-672: Air Force at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 59.334; Hawaii 53.008
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Air Force by 1; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-1); Under

Game 673-674: High Point at UC-Irvine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: High Point 49.115; UC-Irvine 55.535
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 6 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 8 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: High Point (+8 1/2); Over

Game 679-680: North Dakota at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 49.098; Northern Iowa 60.439
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+15 1/2); Over

Game 681-682: Fairfield at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 52.086; Kent State 57.176
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Kent State by 7; 125
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+7); Over

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Dakota State vs. Western Michigan
Pick: North Dakota StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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The last time these teams played against each other, The Bison won 86-73 back on February 18th, 2012.
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North Dakota State is coming off a 73-67 loss to South Dakota State on March 12th in the Summit League title game. Taylor Braun had 23 points. Mike Felt had nine points.
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Western Michigan is coming off a 74-63 loss at Ohio on March 15th in the MAC semi's. Nate Hutcheson had 16 points.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that North Dakota State is a battle tested team, going 4-3 ATS in all tournament games this year.
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Note that Western Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest.
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Pick Analysis
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The teams have three common opponents: Western Michigan beat Oakland 76-72 at home, lost 71-66 at Duquesne, and lost 65-43 at Akron. NDSU split home wins with Oakland, won 57-43 at Duquesne, and lost 68-53 at Akron. North Dakota State's grit, determination, and experience prove to be the difference in the end between these two very evenly matched teams!

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year: Detroit won 5-3 at home on January 25th. Minnesota won 3-2 at home on February 17th. Minnesota is 16-10-2 overall, but just 6-7-1 on the road. The Wild have won three straight and are coming off a 3-1 victory over the Canucks on Monday. Detroit is 14-10-5, including 9-4-3 at home. The Wings have enjoyed a few days off to prepare for this game after beating the Canucks 5-2 in Vancouver on Saturday. Both teams come in with momentum, but at this price, the well-rested home side is simply too good a deal to pass up. Look for Detroit to continue its dominance in this series at Joe Louis Arena, and consider laying the price.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State vs. San AntonioFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 203½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio can play any style, including defense, allowing 96.5 ppg --11th best in the NBA. Without Tony Parker, though, the offense loses a key piece. Into town comes Golden State, a team that has plenty to play for, fighting for playoff positioning. They have good balance and come off a pair of terrific wins, blowing out New Orleans on Monday and winning at Houston Sunday, 108-78, both on the road. Coach Mark Jackson is demanding that they get back to playing tough defense and they are, allowing 78 and 72 points the last two games. They are on a 4-2 run under the total and the Spurs will be content to play a slower back than oddsmakers expect. Play the Warriors/Spurs under the total.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force vs HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Mountain West. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City vs. MemphisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MemphisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yesterday's winner on Milwaukee, part of a 5-0 Tuesday sweep, brought me to 5-0 my last five NBA & 18-4 my last 22. A couple of those recent winners have involved Memphis.
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I successfully played "on" the Grizzlies in their most recent game, a 15-point win. I also successfully played "against" them in their previous game, a 6-point loss ...
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While they're up against one of the top teams in the league, I believe this looks like another spot to play "on" the Grizzlies.
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Many bettors don't ever imagine that "elite" teams (like OKC) can lose two in a row. However, it can (and does) happen.
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While the Grizzlies had yesterday off, the Thunder were busy losing against Denver. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll also be playing their third game in the past four days and their 9th game in the past 14 days. That's a pretty grueling stretch, even for an athletic team like the Thunder.
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The Grizzlies upset the Thunder at OKC in this season's first meeting but proceeded to lose to them (also at OKC) in the most recent meeting. That puts them in the "revenge" role here, a role which has typically been very good to them.
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When facing a team which defeated them in the most recent meeting, the Grizzlies are 11-7 ATS (12-6 SU) their last 18 and a profitable 58-39 ATS the past few seasons.
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The Grizzlies are also 15-7-1 ATS (18-5 SU!) off a double-digit victory and 14-7-1 ATS when facing a team which averages 99 or more points per game. Looking back a little further finds them at a lucrative 60-30-1 ATS the past few seasons, against teams which average 99 or more points per game.
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While the Thunder are a respectable 20-13 on the road, the Grizzlies are a much better 26-8 here at Memphis. Take a look at the home team.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Elon vs. CanisiusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CanisiusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Canisius provided decent spread value at times this season, although it was unfortunate to be caught in the pile-up of contenders in the ultra-competitive Metro-Atlantic. Partly because of the traffic jam in that league, the Griffins ended their season on a 4-game spread skid. But Canisius was good enough to win at Temple in December, and on their best nights, the Griffs’ backcourt can pack a mighty wallop, with transfer Billy Baron (ex-Virginia & Rhode Island and son of HC Jim Baron; 16.9 ppg), UCF transfer Isaac Sosa (12 ppg); and holdover Harold “The Mayor” Washington (13.9 ppg). Meanwhile, Elon (just 3-8 vs. line its last 11) slowed going down the stretch, and the Phoenix don’t guard the arc conscientiously, allowing almost 37% triples, which is potential bad news vs. bombs-away Baron, Sosa, & Washington.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta HawksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Atlanta HawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawks fit a solid system that plays on home favorites with 1 day of rest at -5 or more and a total that is 200 or higher, if they scored 110 or more as a home favorite, while shooting 55% or higher with 25 or more assists, vs an opponent like Milwaukee that scored 90 or more as a home favorite. These home teams are a solid 16-1 straight up and 14-3 ats. The Hawks are also 13-1 ats off a home loss where they had 5 or less offensive rebounds. They are 10-4 ats off a loss of 10 or more and the Bucks are just 3-9 straight up and ats in the 2nd half vs winning teams. Take Atlanta tonight.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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La Salle vs Boise StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boise StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There's not much to choose between Boise State and La Salle. The teams power rate just about even, the number is in that neighborhood, and these two teams should be thrilled at being included in the 68-team field. My biggest worry in this game is a letdown from Boise State, as the Broncos had to win several big games just to make it here. But the flip side of that comment is that at Boise has been able to win those important games. Can't say the same for the Explorers, who came up short in their biggest games down the stretch. I give Leon Rice an edge over John Giannini on the sidelines, and I also think the Broncos have the game-breaker in Marks. Tough game, figures close, but in the end I'm going to tab Boise State to advance with the win and cover.

Hollywood SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit at Arizona St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Titans (20-12) are an outstanding offensive team that is 23rd in the nation in Offensive Efficiency. Point guard Ray McCollum runs the show -- and he does a great job of protecting the basketball as Detroit turns the ball over in only 15.3% of their possessions which is 3rd best in the nation. This translates into effective play on the road. Arizona (21-12) is 15-4 on their home court this season -- but the Titans have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Wildcats limp into the NIT having lost five of their last six games. Their motivation to continue playing after blowing a possible Big Dance bid to close out the season has to be questioned. As it is, college basketball metrics expert Ken Pomeroy actually places Detroit three spots ahead in his ranking system over Arizona's #78 rating. Take the points with the more motivated Titans team.

Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana St +12.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Anyone watch the results come in from last nights NIT Action? I did. Robert Morris beats Kentucky, huge dogs covering and in some cases winning. That is March madness where nothing comes easy. Yes the Sycamores are Mo Valley and Iowa is Big 10, but the Mo Valley is a tough mid major and Iowa is a middle of the pack Big 10 team....and while Iowa should get the win, they have no business laying this number in any March Mandess scenario. ISU will not lay down and give them a game, this is a team who Wichita State at home by double digits.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii PkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawaii Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Mountain West opponents. They are facing an Air Force Falcons team that is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or more. Air Force has averaged a mere 61.7 points per game on the road and they are getting only 27 rebounds per game. This is a major mismatch when compared to a Hawaii team that averages 40 rebounds per game on their home court and 74.3 points per game.
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The Air Force defense is almost as bad as the offense when playing on the road. They have allowed an average of 71.1 points per game which means they are being outscored on the road by an average of almost 10 points. Hawaii is 13-6 straight up at home and they have held opponents to 39.6% shooting from the field. The Falcons are outmatched from every angle in this game.

NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Purdue - over Western IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Illinois is the slowest pace team in the nation and the Leathernecks only post 59 points per game despite being a respectable shooting team. The Summit League had three teams with strong records this year but overall the quality of the league appears down with a lot of bad teams at the bottom. Western Illinois really has no quality wins to speak of outside of beating North Dakota State twice in conference play. While the slow pace and defensive focus can work against teams not used to it, Purdue will be well versed in the style coming out of the Big Ten. It was a disappointing losing season for the Boilermakers in a rebuilding year but there is some talent on this squad and given how strong the Big Ten was this season the 8-10 finish was pretty respectable, getting wins over Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. This is a Purdue team that was playing its best ball late in the season with a 3-3 finish in the final six games and the three losses coming by a total of just 17 points including a close call with highly ranked Michigan. Purdue had to play one of the nation's toughest schedules so the losing record was understandable and while some Big Ten teams would be disappointed to be in this tournament this seems to be a team excited to keep playing and keep improving. While the perception is often that most small conference teams are excited by these late season tournament opportunities it may not be the case for the Leathernecks as this team shared the conference regular season title with South Dakota State and had sites on the NCAA bid before losing to North Dakota State and having to play late in the season without two key players due to late season injuries. Things spiraled out of control for Western Illinois and it will be hard to get a premium effort tonight.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charleston Southern at Southern Mississippi
Pick: Charleston Southern +12FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Mississippi has to be feeling the pain after blowing several opportunities to close out Memphis and earn a bid to the Big Dance. The Golden Eagles can turn to their 15-28 from the charity stripe performance and only wonder what if? It will be hard to get things going against a lesser, and unknown opponent in Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers are unknown and untested, but have only lost one game all season by 14 or more, despite playing against Wichita State, Charlotte, Arizona, and Alabama. They certainly have proven that they can hang tough vs. better competition, and vs. a depleted Golden Eagles team, they should hang inside an inflated number. Take the points on Charleston Southern.