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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana State +12.5 over IOWA: Indiana State comes in struggling, winning just 2 of their last 8 games, but I still feel they are the right side in this game. The Sycamores are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Big 10 and they have wins over Miami and Mississippi this year, so this is a team that will not be intimidated in this one. The Sycamores are just 4-9 on the road this year, but have been outscored by just 3 ppg away from home, so they have the ability to keep it close, especially with a defense that is 71st in the nation in efficiency. The Hawkeyes do average 70.4 ppg on the year, but this is a poor shooting team that checks in at 230th in FG% overall and 318th in 3 point shooting. The Hawkeyes do play solid defense and Indiana State is not a great offensive team, but I feel that their defense will do enough to keep them in this one. We also may get a flat Iowa squad as this is not where they expected to be. Look for the Sycamores to keep this one Close.
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Detroit/ ASU Over 153: Not only does Detroit play at the 21st highest tempo in the nation, but they are also very efficient at it. The Titans average 78.1 ppg on the year (8th in nation) and they are 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency. Detroit is also 55th in the nation in FG% (45.9) and they hit 71.9% of their FT's. This team can score in many ways thanks to their pace, but because of that pace they also give up allot of points. Detroit checks in at 272nd in points allowed (70.5 ppg), 319th in defensive FG% overall (46.3%) and 312th in 3pt defense (37.2). That gives an ASU squad that puts up 71 ppg (87th) on 45.7% shooting (58th) an excellent shot at hitting the high 70's or even low 80's in this one. ASU is not really an uptempo team, but they will run with teams and I feel that Detroit gives them the opportunity to run in this one. ASU plays pretty good defense at home, but I feel that Detroit can score 75+ here, while ASU will flirt with 80+ of their own.
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Western Illinois/ Purdue Under 115: You know you play allot of low scoring games when you are 22-8 on the year, yet average just 59.3 ppg. That's exactly what Western Illinois does. This is a very slow paced team (347th in tempo) and their offensive efficiency is poor at 27th in the nation. They do have trouble scoring, but their pace also has allot to do with that. Defense though is a big reason why this team is 22-8 on the year. The Leathernecks come in ranked 2nd in the nation in points allowed (52.7) and 34th in defensive FG% (39.3) and they will be taking on a Purdue offense that is 230th in the nation in scoring (65.2). The do average 69.4 ppg at home, but I just don't see them getting enough scoring chances at this pace to even come close to that average. The Boiler defense has been solid at home, where they allow just 61.8 ppg and W. Illinois averages just 58.5 ppg on the road. The Boilers have been involved in some ugly low scoring games this year and that is the pace that Western Illinois will look to employ. Both teams play very good defense and that should keep the scoring down, especially in a slow paced game.
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TORONTO -½ +126 over Tampa BayFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Maple Leafs are in a funk but it’s their first slump of the year and reports are that they’ve had some very spirited practices over the past few days. Rested and with their healthiest lineup of the year, the Maple Leafs figure to leave nothing on the table tonight. Toronto has had nothing but success against the Lightning over the past few years with five wins its last six games versus Tampa while popping seven goals in two of those six contests. The Leafs have also defeated the Bolts in 14 of the past 20 games at the ACC.
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Tampa comes in with just five wins in 13 road games. It is without several key players including Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone and Victor Hedman. The Bolts have just six wins over their past 22 games and two of those victories came against the hapless Panthers. Over the past week, the Lightning were outshot in two games against the Islanders and Florida by a combined count of 68-31. This is a Lightning team in trouble with poor goaltending, a weak defense and secondary lines that rarely produce. Toronto is 5-0 this season at home against teams playing under .400 hockey on the road and this guest may be the worst of them all.
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Minnesota +126 over DETROITFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Red Wings are hanging around the .500 mark but continue to struggle against teams above them in the standings. Three of Detroit’s last four wins have come against the Oilers twice and the Avalanche once. Over its past five games, Detroit has lost to the Jackets twice and the Flames once. The Red Wings now return home from the dreaded three-game trip to the Canadian West Coast in what players have described for years as the most difficult three-game trip of the season. In this shortened campaign, that excursion has taking an added toll on clubs. Now, the Red Wings have the difficult task now of having to face one of the NHL’s hottest clubs after that tasking trip.
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The Wild have shot up the standings over the past month and are now atop the Northwest Division after defeating the Canucks on Monday. That was Minnesota’s third win in succession and fifth win in six games. Offensively challenged over the first few weeks, Minnesota’s offense has found another gear, scoring 18 goals over its last four wins. The best news however, is that Minnesota is currently on an 8-0 run against teams with a losing record and Detroit comes in one game under .500.
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EDMONTON +105 over San JoseFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Sharks are favored on the road here because why? San Jose has one road win over its past eight games and two road wins over its past 13 away. Overall, the Sharks have four road wins in 15 games this season. San Jose has allowed five goals in consecutive games and three or more in seven straight. This is a Sharks team that has underachieved in the playoffs for years and this season, where just about every game has a playoff-like feel and atmosphere, the Sharks are doing what they always do when intensity levels are high. They become soft and beatable.
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The Oilers recently returned home from a nine-game trip in which they defeated Chicago and Colorado in the final two games of that excursion. They returned home to face Nashville and Detroit and picked up three out of a possible four points. Edmonton will now play its third home game in succession after going 3-0-1 over its past four. The Oilers are healthier right now than they’ve been in years and they’re getting major production from plenty of their top guys. Taylor Hall, the first overall pick in the 2010 draft continues to emerge with two goals and five assists in the last four games. Primed to make a playoff run (Edmonton is just two points out entering this one) and with a chance to leapfrog over San Jose tonight, expect the Rexall Center to be electric in what is one of the most important games the Oilers have played in years. Wrong side favored.
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm backing the Memphis Grizzlies tonight as a small home favorite over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Memphis just keeps on winning even after trading away Rudy Gay. The Grizzlies have won 15 of their last 18 games overall heading into this contest.
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Oklahoma City is a very tired team right now, and it showed signs of that by fading late in a 104-114 home loss to the Denver Nuggets last night. Now, the Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 9th game in 14 days.
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Memphis is 26-8 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 6.2 points/game. The Grizzlies have won two of their last three meetings with the Thunder despite all three of those contests being played on the road. This will be their first home meeting of the season, and I look for Memphis to protect its home court tonight.
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The Grizzlies are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Memphis is 51-24-3 ATS in its last 78 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.
Scott Delaney
North Dakota's men's basketball team moves on to its third straight postseason, and I'm sorry, but the Northern Iowa Panthers are laying far too many points in the opening round game of the 2013 CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament.
In a matchup of third-place teams from Mid-Major Conferences, I don't think the oddsmakers know just how good UND is, as it finished up impressively in its first campaign in the Big Sky Conference with a 12-8 mark.
And prior to getting involved in the Big Sky schedule, North Dakota - the team with no nickname until 2015 - was pummeled by this Northern Iowa team. The Panthers dealt UND a 72-47 defeat more than three months ago in what was the third game of the season for UND.
Now it could be time for revenge.
I know Northern Iowa is a dangerous team, and can certainly be deadly when getting hot from beyond the arc, but I don't know how inspired the Panthers will be for this one. This was a team that started out with high hopes in the Missouri Valley conference.
And after a third-place finish in an always-tough conference, you're telling me the Panthers couldn't even get an NIT invite? Again, I don't know how fired up the Panthers are going to be for this game.
But North Dakota, there's revenge on the brain for that 25-point loss earlier this season. Give me the underdog in this one.
3* NORTH DAKOTA
Craig Davis
Wednesday free play winner is the Memphis Grizzlies over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
I'm biding my time to unload on the OKC Thunder again, but it won't be tonight as they travel to Memphis in a HUGE seeding game in the Western Conference.
OKC lost a tough game last night at home to the Denver Nuggets, who now owns the tiebreaker advantage over the Thunder with a 3-1 series win.
It's not often the Thunder lose games at home, having lost just five times there all season after last night's debacle.
But the lack of defense they continue to play isn't going to do them any favors come playoff time... home or away. They allowed Denver to have points in the paint, offensive rebounds, and very fast transition points. Again, if they don't stop some of that they are going to be knocked out earlier than expected in the post-season.
As for Memphis, they're all about defense, ranking in the top 10 in every major defensive statistical category.
The Grizzlies may have lost two of three, but those two losses came away from the FedEx Forum where they clearly struggle a lot more than they do at home.
Their last home loss was back on February 5... a rare 96-90 loss to Phoenix when the Suns shot a scorching 58% from the field. It was just one of those nights.
Take Memphis minus the point to keep the home winning streak alive.
3* MEMPHIS
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Wednesday is the Bucks plus the points in Atlanta.
This Atlanta team is like a yo-yo, they tend to go on both long winning streaks and then they follow them with long losing streaks.
Rught now the Hawks are in the midst of a 4-7 straight up run, so not too stoked to be backing them laying a few baskets, even at home. Larry Drew's team is just 13-18-2 against the spread at home this season.
As for Milwaukee, they are hoping to climb out of the #8 spot in the East and avoid a first round meeting with Miami.
The Bucks have a 2 game winning streak, and they have won 4 of their last 7 overall as they play at the Philips Arena tonight. I am looking for Milwaukee to continue their uptick.
Take the points with Milwaukee as they battle hard versus the slumping Hawks.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Jeff Benton
19-8 freebie run coming into Wednesday's play.
Tonight's freebie is the Over in the La Salle-Boise State contest.
The selection committee knew what they were doing matching up a pair of guard-oriented, perimeter-oriented teams in this first round meeting, as both the Explorers and the Broncos can fill it up on any given night.
Expect plenty of three-point attempts tonight, and expect the points to start to add up once these teams get a little "comfortable" in the Dayton gym.
La Salle has played on this court before, as the Dayton Flyers are in the same conference as the Explorers, so expect the Philly gang to get settled in a little quicker than the Boise bunch.
The Explorers are 8-2 Over their last 10 neutral site games, and they come into this one having played five of their last seven overall Over the posted price.
This one should feature plenty of offense.
Go Over the total in this meeting of #13 seeds tonight in Ohio.
4♦ LA SALLE-BOISE STATE OVER
Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SAN ANTONIO (-8.5) over Golden StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio beats a lot of teams at home but they absolutely destroy Golden State. Spurs have beat the Warriors 28 straight times in San Antonio going an incredible 23-4-1 against the spread in those games! Combine that kind of dominance with the fact that it is a revenge game for the Spurs who lost last month at Golden State in overtime and that San Antonio Head Coach Gregg Popovich has been livid at his team in practice this week after the Spurs let the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers shoot better than 50% from the floor against them last Saturday and you can see why we think it's a blowout in the lone star state tonight.
NHL PredictionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Lightning +125FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams are both fighting for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Lightning enter with a 13-15-1 record and are 5-8 on the road. They have won two straight games and 3 of their last 4. The Maple Leafs are 15-12-2 on the year and 6-6-2 at home. Toronto has struggled as of late dropping 5 straight games. The Leafs team defense, which was a key to the Leafs early succes, has been bad lately. Toronto has allowed 37 goals against over their last 9 games (4.11 goals against per game during that stretch). and they've allowed 5 goals against in 3 of their last 4 games. Toronto has played well against Tampa Bay in recent years, but the Lightning did take their only meeting so far this year 4-2 in Tampa Bay. The Lightning have picked up their play lately, while Toronto is really struggling keeping pucks out of their net. This game should be closer to a pick'em price in my opinion and I like the value in the underdog.
Joe Gavazz
Stony Brook +5
In this NIT contest, I favor an underrated Stony Brook team. The Sea Wolves were the regular season champ of the American East with a YTD record 24-7 SU, 14-2 ATS. Though they didn't make the Big Dance, they will be pumped to play an A10 team in the post season. The Sea Wolves were representative in road games at Maryland and Seton Hall, and a perfect 3-0 ATS against MAAC opponents. UMass was a tired team just three days ago in their CCT loss to VCU in the semi-finals. Combined with sellout efforts against Temple and G Wash, the disappointment of not getting to the Big Dance may be too much for them to overcome against a foe they may not respect. That would be a mistake, as the Sea Wolves have a defense that allows just 57/38/31, a +5.5 rebound margin, and positives in the TO margin, and assist to TO ratio. The underdog will be the fresher team and perhaps the better team tonight.
Andre Gomes
Toronto / Charlotte Over 194.5
Charlotte is coming from a rare win against Washington, where their defense was still a mess even though they won the game. Washington shot 53% FG, including 9-16 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-15 3pts, but the Bobcats compensated that with a great offensive performance. Charlotte has a lot of volume on pick and rolls ball handlers and transitions and they were able to have a great offensive game in here thanks to Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson, who were very efficient on these two kinds of plays. These two players shot a combined of 16-30 FG, while Ben Gordon also played well with 7-10 FG. Charlotte shot 7-13 FG on pick and roll ball handlers with a nice 0.89 PPP and 8-12 FG on transitions with 1.56 PPP! Washington was lazy on defense and their pick and roll ball handler is definitely regressing right now, as John Wall seems to be only focused on offense right now.
The Bobcats will face Toronto tonight, so it's important to know what the Raptors's will be able to do on pick and roll ball handler defense and transition defense. Toronto is #5 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.75 PPP allowed, but they are allowing 0.80 PPP since the All Star break and 0.87 PPP on their last five games! The same is happening with their transition defense, with 1.14 PPP allowed for the season, but with 1.20 PPP allowed since the All Star break. I took Toronto on their home game against Charlotte last week, on a game where the Bobcats scored just 10 points on the fourth quarter and with eight of these points coming from free throws. Charlotte was coming from a big win over Boston, while Toronto was coming from a big road loss against the same Celtics. Therefore, Toronto was on a back to back spot, so they put a lot of defensive pressure on Charlotte's offense, who was on a clear letdown mode on offense after such a big win over Boston.
I believe the Bobcats will be much more aggressive tonight than they were at Toronto last week. They will also try to push up the tempo, just like they did it against Washington, as that improves their chances of scoring transition points. By the way, Charlotte has an average pace at home of 91.3, while they have an average road pace of just 89.3 on the road! With this game being played at a faster pace than last week and with Toronto struggling on pick and roll ball handler defense, Charlotte has a nice spot to have another decent offensive game. Toronto's offense struggles on half court due to their lack of offensive flow, but on a fast paced game, I like their offense due to their mobility. I expect this game to eventually become a high scoring contest between two teams with no playoffs aspirations and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Jeff Alexander
New Orleans Hornets +5
Boston has struggled against New Orleans. It has lost 4 of the last 5 in the series with the win coming by just 4 points. Plus, the Celtics will have a tough time getting up for this one after an emotional loss to the Heat. Boston is 2-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. It is also 8-20 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 42-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.
Dave Price
Utah Jazz +7.5
The Rockets will be motivated following an ugly 30-point loss to Golden State, but you can argue that the Jazz will be even more motivated. Utah needs this game more considering it is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. Plus, it was handed a 45-point loss the last time these two met. Losses like that aren't forgotten. Fading teams that check in off a double-digit loss in a game where they were favored by at least 6 points, provided they have won 51-60% of their games and are playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 51-18 ATS mark since 1996. This system tightens up to 17-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Washington +1.5 over PHOENIX: The Suns are off huge win vs the Lakers, while Washington is ff an embarrassing loss to the lowly Bobcats, yet this line is only at 1.5. That should tell you that Vegas is thinking very little about each teams last games. Phoenix may be looking for some revenge for a 22 point road loss to the Wizards last week, but I just don't see it. The Suns are a mess defensively right now, allowing 105 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games, with the only game they didn't allow hat much being their last game vs a Kobe-less Lakers team. During that stretch the Suns allowed 127 points to these same Wizards and Washington is starting to play some good offense, putting up 110.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Washington is also off that loss to the worst team in the league and will be looking to bounceback strong. The Suns have won just 2 of their last 8 games, while Washington has won 3 of their last 4. These teams are headed in opposite directions and I expect it to continue here.
Charlotte/ Toronto Under 195: The Bobcats put up 119 points in their last game, but that is far from the norm for this team. Charlotte comes in averaging just 93.1 ppg on the year and prior to the Washington game they had averaged just 86.5 ppg in their previous 10 games. Lets also note that prior to te Washington game The bobcats had hit the century mark just 5 times sine January 9th and in the next game they went on to average just 82.4 ppg in their next game, while not scoring more than 93 points in any of those games. The Raptor offense comes in struggling as well as they have averaged just 93.7 ppg in their last 3 games and they have averaged just 94.8 ppg in their last 7 games vs the Bobcats. Neither defense is any good, but I just don't see bad offense stealing the show in this one. The three games between these teams have averaged just 180.7 ppg and I expect no more than 185 in this one.