Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday March, 21

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

When Atlanta hosts Cleveland in an NBA Eastern Conference clash Wednesday night the Hawks will enter the game off a three-point home loss Monday night to the Celtics while the Cavs check in off a five-point road at New Jersey the same evening. That suits Atlanta just fine considering they are not only 8-0 ATS the last eight games in this series but also 8-0 ATS the last eight time Cleveland arrives off an upset win. Look for the Hawks to get back on the win track at the Cavs' expense here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Rob Vinciletti

Warriors vs. Hornets
Play: Over 188

This game fits the solid totals system below which has been very effective for all games this season with 11 of the 13 games going over. We want to play the over for road dogs of 4 or less like the Warriors that have 1 day of rest and scored 90 or more at home vs an opponent that was on the road in their last game. The Hornets have played over in 3 of the last at home after shooting 50% or higher on the road. In the series 5 of the last 7 between these two have flown over the total including the last 2 here with both games going over 213 points. Look for a high scoring game here tonight. Play the over.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: St. Louis Blues

St. Louis is 46-19-8 (17-15-4 on the road). Anaheim is 31-32-11 (19-16-2 at home). The last time these teams played the Blues won 3-1 on home ice on March 8th, 2012.

The Blues won 3-1 at Tampa Bay on Saturday. Jaroslav Halak stopped 22-shots. Jaden Schwartz tallied his first NHL marker. With the win, St. Louis has now clinched a playoff spot; “It’s the first step,” coach Ken Hitchcock said. “We’re proud of that. We’re really happy with it, and we continue down that path.” “It’s great, but I don’t think anybody is focusing on the playoffs,” Halak said. “We have work to do. We’ve got nine games left in the season, and we have to get as many wins as we can. We have to do our job, and I’m sure everybody realizes that.” Patrik Berglund and David Perron also scored goals.

The Ducks are coming off a 5-3 win at San Jose on Monday. Bobby Ryan had a goal and two assists for last place Anaheim; “Our team has a lot of pride, we’ve played hard from January on,” coach Bruce Boudreau said. “Whenever you can derail a California team—you like to do it.”

St. Louis is obviously the "hungrier" team, and is extremely well rested (note that the Blues are a perfect 4-0/+4.4 units when playing with 3 or more days of rest this year); with a game tomorrow night in LA vs. the Kings, this evening's contest is one this team has got to find a way to win.

Anaheim has three whole days off after tonight, and checks out of this one early as the Blues continue their torrid run into the post-season with just nine-games remaining.

Lay the short-price!

David Chan

Red Wings @ Rangers
PICK: Over 5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

The 44-25-4 Detroit Red Wings storm into New York to take on the 45-20-7 Rangers.

Jimmy Howard is set to square off against Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes.

The Rangers hope they've turned the corner after beating the Devils 4-2 on Monday; they'd dropped five of seven previous to that:

“I just want us to continue to play and continue to try to improve, and try to be playing our best hockey when we go into that last week,” New York's coach John Tortorella said. “These last couple of weeks are very important.”

The Red Wings are injured, and that's led to five-straight losses.

Detroit though looks to get untracked against a team that its enjoyed plenty of success against, having won five in a row and 12 of the last 13 in this series.

The Red Wings latest setback was a 5-3 effort at home to Washington; they trailed 3-0 after the first 15-minutes.

Note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in 9 of its last 14 non-conference games, while the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last eight.

All signs point to a wide open, high-scoring game; consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

Jim Feist

Loyola Marymount vs Utah State
Pick: Utah State

Utah State is 19-15 on the season after posting home wins against CSU Bakersfield (75-69) and Idaho (76-56) in the first two rounds of the CIT. Overall, USU has won five of its last six games and is 15-4 at home this year. The Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. the West Coast conference. Utah State is 6-0 against Loyola Marymount with all six of those games being played in Logan, so grab the home court. Play Utah State!

Dave Cokin

Phoenix Suns vs Orlando Magic
Pick: Orlando Magic

The Suns put up a terrific fight on Tuesday in a near miss at Miami, but they could well be spent here. Excellent scheduling spot provides the impetus for the win and cover by the Magic.

NHL Predictions

Chicago Blackhawks -102 & Over 5.5

One of the NHL's best rivalries will be on display tonight as the slumping Canucks head into Chicago to take on the Blackhawks. These two teams have met 3 times this season with Vancouver winning 2 of the 3 games, but I like Chicago to even out the series tonight. The Blackhawks won in Columbus 5-1 last night, giving them their 4th straight win. I wouldn't be surprised to see Crawford back between the pipes tonight as he has won 4 straight games (one of those in which he came in the game in relief to win). The Blackhawks are now 41-25-8 on the season and a stellar 25-7-5 at home. The Canucks are coming off of a 2-0 loss in Minnesota Monday night, and have now lost 7 of their last 10 games. Vancouver is still a solid 43-21-8 on the season and 22-11-4 on the road, but are having their struggles recently. Take note that although the Blackhawks are playing a back to back they do well in these situations (especially when the second is at home). In fact the Blackhawks are 36-17 in their last 53 games on 0 days rest dating back. Chicago is 5-1 in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Roberto Luongo is back in net although he hasn't won in 4 straight starts. Within those starts included 5, 4, and 4 goals against and 3 goals against on 7 shots before being pulled in a loss to Buffalo. Two of the three meetings between these two teams went OVER the posted total, with totals of 5, 6, and 8. Take note that the Blackhawks are averaging 3.30 goals per game over their last 10, while the Canucks are allowing 3 goals against per game over their past 10. The OVER is 5-1-1 in the Blackhawks last 7 overall, and the OVER is 3-0-1 in these two teams last 4 meetings in Chicago. Vancouver is slumping lately, but have also faced some good goaltending. I can see Vancouver putting a few on the board, but it won't be enough against the Blackhawks who have scored 4 or more in 4 straight wins. Take CHICAGO and the OVER on separate tickets.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +7½ over ATLANTA

These two met on Sunday in Cleveland and the Hawks clobbered them by 26. It was the second game between these two this season and in first meeting Atlanta won by 27. A response by the Cavaliers is a must. Cleveland has lost six straight to the Hawks and they have to be sick of losing to them. We could also find the Hawks a little complacent here, knowing they own this guest. Atlanta is coming off a very physical game against the Celtics, they’re bench is weak and they did nothing at the deadline to improve anything. The current roster can’t be too happy about management standing pat. The Cavs’ are on the right track. They picked up a couple of role players in Luke Walton and Jason Kopono while unloading Ramon Sessions, a decent point guard but expendable because the Cavs’ are rich in that department. Expect a big effort from the visitor here in a game they can win outright. Play: Cleveland +7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

NEW JERSEY -4½ over Washington

The Wizards traded JaVale McGee, Nick Young and Ronny Turiaf. In return they picked up Nene from the Nuggets and Brian Cook from the Clippers. They went from bad to worse and they picked up two guys that have to be just sick about being traded to one of the most dysfunctional and mismanaged teams in all of sports. Especially Nene, who loved playing for the Nuggets and was a fan favorite there for years. He hasn’t even reported yet, as he’s still getting over the shock but is expected to be in the lineup tonight. An unhappy NBA player is usually an unproductive one too. Meanwhile, the Nets didn’t land Dwight Howard but they’re doing everything they can to convince Deron Williams to stay. They picked up Gerald Wallace from Portland and he brings some true grit experience and a new lease on life in the NBA to the Nets. What’s incredible is that the Nets are 10-15 on the road and just 5-17 at home. That is an anomaly that will be corrected down the stretch. The Wizards have four wins in 22 road games and for the Nets, losing to this confused franchise is not an option. Play: New Jersey -4½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

ORLANDO -8 over Phoenix

The Suns stock continues to rise and losing to the Heat in Miami last night by just four points did nothing to lower it. Prior to that, the Suns won six of seven and four in a row. Now they have to play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after giving it everything they had last night. It will also be the Suns’ sixth game since last Wednesday. They catch the Magic in a foul mood after Orlando was throttled by the Bulls by 26 points in a game they scored a lousy 59 points. The Magic have dropped two straight to Miami and Chicago and after playing those two defensive juggernauts, they’ll find the going much easier against this exhausted visitor. The Magic often beat up on teams in unfavorable spots and this one is about as unfavorable as it gets for the Suns. Play: Orlando -8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Pass NHL

JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the Chicago Bulls as the road favorite at Toronto.

The Raptors just took it on the chin against the Knicks last night at home, and are only 6-7-1 against the spread when playing on back-to-back nights, including three straight losses in that particular situation.

The Bulls are still without the services of Rip Hamilton and Derrick Rose, but they just continue to accumulate victories, as Chicago heads north of the border having won 13 of their last 15 games.

Chicago has won the last pair of series meetings, and five of the last six overall against the Raptors. The Bulls are also on an 8-2 spread run their last ten road games, and are 17-8 for the season against the spread on the road.

No issue laying the road wood tonight, as Chicago just keeps winning no matter who is in the starting lineup.

2♦ CHICAGO

MATT RIVERS

Wednesday's free play is the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points at home against their division-rival, the New York Knicks.

The resurgent Knicks have gone 4-0 both straight up and against the spread under Mike Woodson, but New York was in action last night and are just 7-8 versus the spread when playing with no rest. The Knicks are also on a 2-6 against the spread slide their last eight road games.

Philadelphia still leads the division, and they are off a blowout win over lowly Charlotte that ended their three game slide. The Sixers just pounded the Knicks 106-94 as the 2 1/2-point underdog just 10 days ago at the Garden, and now they get the chance to show New York just who is the boss on their home floor this Wednesday night.

Philly is 16-9 straight up on their home floor, and 15-10 against the spread in their 25 home dates this year.

I like the 76ers to cool down the streaking Knicks.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA

Free NBA Release for 3/21: N.Y. Knicks at the Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 192.5. This total is set a little too high with the Knicks playing just last night in New York. They now travel to Philadelphia to face a 76ers club has their big center, Spencer Hawes, back from injury. These too teams faced each other just ten days ago in Madison Square Garden, scoring a total of 200 points in a 106-94 Philadelphia victory. But both teams were rested, and the 76ers were without Hawes. It was still an uncharacteristic over, as the under is an identical 28-28 at the window in both clubs 46 games played. The 76ers have played stellar defense at home this year, holding their opponents to 84.2 points/game on just over 42% shooting. New York has also stepped up it's defensive game a bit since Coach Woodsen took over, limiting foes to just 41% from the floor and 89 points/game. The under is 11-4 in New York's last 15 games when playing on no rest, 12-4 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 18-5 in their last 23 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 overall, and 20-6 in their last 26 games as the home chalk. To top it off, the under has cashed in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams, and is a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've played in Philadelphia. Bet the under tonight. *Our free plays are now 184-102-1 all-time. Sign up on our website to get all of our free basketball picks via email.

Matt Fargo

New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -4.5

The Knicks are now 4-0 under interim head coach Mike Woodson following their 19-point win over Toronto on Tuesday. It has been a complete turnaround for New York which had lost its previous six games under former head coach Mike D'Antoni. The Knick have won all four of these games by at least 14 points but it is nothing to get over excited about. Wins over the Raptors and Blazers are nothing special and while two wins over the Pacers are better, Indiana has been in a freefall. The Sixers had a very rough weekend with three straight losses against Indiana, Miami and Chicago before rebounding in their most previous game, a 25-point win over Charlotte. A victory over the Bobcats is far from a quality win but it got Philadelphia going back in the right direction. The Sixers continue to lead the Atlantic Division as they are a game and a half ahead of Boston and four games ahead of the Knicks. That makes this showdown a big one and one that gives the edge to the home team. The Sixers are 6-16 against teams ranked within the top 16 in the league but the Knicks are not part of that group which is a good sign for Philadelphia here as it is 20-4 in its 24 games against teams ranked worse than 16th. New York is 6-10 against the top ten and while Philadelphia may be a little overvalued with its ranking of fifth in the Sagarin Ratings, it is still a legitimate top ten team. It doesn't help the fact that the Knicks have played the easiest schedule in the NBA. New York is just 5-10 this season when playing with no rest and that includes a 3-8 record when the second of the back-to-back games is on the road. The Sixers fall into a great situation here as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more while coming off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 106-55 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1996. Philadelphia is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Craig Trapp

Minnesota vs. Middle Tenn St
Play: Minnesota +3

If Gophers would have played this well in the regular season they would have been 7th team in the NCAA tournament for the Big 10. Big 10 has showed off in post season and think it continues tonight. MIN has won both games on road in NIT and have shown they are much better than we all thought.

Bryan Power

St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: St. Louis Blues

Two clubs trending in opposite directions here. The Blues' 100 points has them in position to take home the franchise's first Presidents Trophy (goes to the team w/ the most pts at the end of the regular season) in 12 seasons. They have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, something that now appears to be out of reach for host Anaheim, who is just 4-7-1 its last 12 games overall. The Ducks did surprise me with a 5-3 win at now slumping San Jose Monday night, but this is a step up in class I do not believe they will be able to handle. St. Louis is 10-2-1 overall the L13 games. Though they have historically struggled at "The Pond," being on the road here actually works to our benefit as it creates some real nice value on the far better team. Lay the relatively minimal juice.