Sean Murphy
Lakers @ Mavericks
PICK: Lakers +4.5
The Lakers are 2-0 SU against the Mavs already this season, but there's little chance that they overlook the defending champs on Wednesday night.
To say that Los Angeles was disappointed with its performance, particularly in the fourth quarter, last night in Houston would be a major understatement.
The Lakers led that game by nine points with just over five minutes remaining, but ultimately lost 107-104. That marked their second straight loss, which comes on the heels of a five-game winning streak.
Keep in mind, Andrew Bynum was ejected in the third quarter of last night's game after being issued his second technical foul. That helped turn the tide in favor of the Rockets down the stretch.
With all of that being said, we should see a fired up Lakers squad take the floor on Wednesday. I'm not sure a Mavs team that has won four games in a row can match their intensity on this night.
While Dallas has notched four straight victories, it has gone just 2-2 ATS over that stretch. While Monday's blowout win over the Nuggets in Denver looks impressive on paper, let's keep in mind that George Karl's squad has been wildly inconsistent lately. Prior to that, the Mavs caught the Spurs on the second night of back-to-backs, and beat the lowly Wizards and Bobcats at home.
While Dallas is 18-7 SU at home this season, its managed to go just 13-12 ATS. The Mavs are just 2-5 ATS over their last seven games on this floor.
I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire. The Lakers were laying three points in Houston last night, but now suddenly find themselves in the underdog role. Note that they're a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the last three times they've been catching points.
Jack Jones
Wizards/Nets OVER 204
The Washington Wizards and New Jersey Nets are two of the worst defensive teams in the league this season. That's why I'm expecting a shootout tonight when these two hapless foes meet up in New Jersey. I look for both squads to top the 100-point mark in this one.
New Jersey is giving up 100.6 points/game at home this season on 48.4 percent shooting. That's why the OVER is a very profitable 15-7 in their 22 home games this year. Washington gives up 102.5 points/game and 46.1 percent shooting on the road this season.
This play falls into a system that is 80-36 (69%) to the OVER during the last five seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (WASHINGTON) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games.
The OVER is 16-5 in Wizards last 21 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The OVER is 7-1 in Nets last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 home games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
Steve Janus
Phoenix Suns +8.5
This may seem like the perfect spot to jump on the Magic after an embarrassing 59-85 loss at home to the Bulls on Monday, but I believe the oddsmakers are ahead of the game an have inflated this line. The Magic are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game.
While the Suns weren't a great team to start the season, they come in having won 11 of their last 15 overall. They nearly went on the road and beat the Heat last night, but Miami went on a 17-0 run late to win by 4-points.
Phoenix also has plenty of motivation to play well in Orlando. They haven't won on the Magic's home court since 2007. I'm not saying they will win this game, but I expect a very close game that could go either way in the 4th quarter.
Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Rob Veno
Pittsburgh at Butler
Play: Pittsburgh +1
I’ll buck the line move here which probably had everything to do with perceived line value when it opened. It’s true that Pittsburgh was a shell of its former self during the regular season, but now things have changed. Head coach Jamie Dixon has kept an upbeat mantra all season and after finally practicing with his full contingent of players for the very first time last week, Pitt looks more like the team we all expected. Through the first two rounds of this CBI Tournament, the Panthers have obliterated their foes by an average score of 81.5-62.0. Their FG% shooting margin of +17.5% (53.6%-39.1%) in those games is excessively good. The Panthers have the look of a hot and confident team right now which by the way, will be seeking revenge tonight for last year’s closing 1.4 seconds of NCAA Tournament debacle. Butler got the win that that night en-route to their NCAA Championship appearance and they too have turned the corner somewhat on a disappointing 2011-12 regular season. The difference is, Butler never got over the hump this year with all of their pieces in the lineup. The Bulldogs’ CBI victories over Delaware and Pennsylvania aren’t nearly as impressive as those of Pittsburgh when you notice that their FG% margin is -2.0%. Butler’s 41.0% and 37.7% from the field against those smallish squads indicates their season long shooting woes have not gone away. Perimeter defensive wizard Ronald Nored has been able to lead the defensive charge as Delaware’s #1 scoring option Devin Saddler and Penn’s #1 option Zach Rosen were held to 10 and 11 points respectively on combined 5-of-17 shooting. Expect Nored to be assigned to Pittsburgh’s leading scorer Ashton Gibbs here but the Panthers interior duo of Lamar Patterson and Nasir Robinson (50 points, 30 rebounds in CBI) present an imposing interior challenge neither Delaware or Pennsylvania possessed. With that huge advantage through their first two games now neutralized, just can’t see Hinkle Fieldhouse being enough (Butler 6-8-1 ATS at home) in this spot. Pittsburgh has the better overall personnel and they’re playing with a purpose (getting to Big East mega stage Madison Square Garden would be huge for them) which makes +1 worth taking here.
Andrew Lange
Washington St at Oregon St
Play: Over 149
Don't think for a minute that just because Washington State and Oregon State are meeting for a fourth time and are "familiar" with one another that we are all of a sudden going to see a defensive scrum. Check last night's Oregon-Washington game. Those two teams know each other pretty well and the game landed 176 – nearly 23 points over the closing total. Earlier this week, Oregon State hung 101 on TCU. The Horned Frogs were pretty poor on offense (41.9% FG, 26.7% 3-pt, 55.0% FT) yet still managed to get to 81 points. Washington State ran wild in its CBI opener; an 89-75 win at San Francisco. And I put little stock in their last game; a 61-41 win over slow paced and offensively deficient Wyoming. During the regular season, the Beavers and Cougars produced games scores of 157 and 156. During the conference tournament – which at the time was the most meaningful game of the season for both sides – OSU won 69-64. I don't expect that type of "postseason atmosphere" in this matchup. Play it over.
Jimmy Boyd
LA Lakers +4.5
The Lakers will have no trouble getting up for this game after blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter in a loss to the Rockets last night for a second straight defeat. The Lakers have had no trouble finding motivation this season when matched up against the Mavs, who swept them in last year's playoffs. The Lakers have won the season's first two meetings and four straight regular season matchups against Dallas.
The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Also, the road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
The Lakers have won their last two regular season meetings in Dallas and will have an excellent opportunity to make it 3 straight tonight.
Teddy Covers
Washington St at Oregon St
Play: Over 151
Washington State was not a particularly good team this year, finishing 7-11 in a down year for the PAC-12. The Cougars stumbled down the stretch: 2-4 SU in their last six regular season games, then bowing out of the conference tournament with a first round loss to the same Oregon State team they’ll face today. Don’t expect Wazzu’s chances of victory to be any better in the short turnaround rematch; the fourth meeting between these same two teams since New Year’s Eve.
The Cougars have survived and advanced through their first two CBI Tournament games thanks to some extremely favorable matchups. They shot 60% from the floor and hit 25-of-28 from the free throw line against a San Francisco team that simply didn’t have a legitimate defensive gameplan in a step-up-in-class situation. Then they beat up a Wyoming team that couldn’t win on the road all year, a squad from the underachieving Mountain West Conference (in postseason play, at least) on a night where the Cowboys were ice cold from the floor: 36% shooting, just 2-of-16 from three-point range. Obviously, the competition stiffens significantly as they travel to Corvallis tonight; bad news for this mediocre Wassou squad.
Oregon State just reached the 20 win mark for the first time in 22 years; a program on the rise. Beavers head coach Craig Robinson has more CBI Tournament wins than any other coach in the country, including a CBI Championship back in 2009. They were good enough to beat NIT Final Four team Washington on a neutral floor in the PAC-12 tourney; an explosive offensive ballclub right now. The Beavers are playing like they’re on a mission at home – four straight wins by double-digit margins. That’s a streak worth riding tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Florida at Carolina
Pick: Carolina -125
The Florida Panthers will travel up the east coast and take on the Carolina Hurricane. The Panthers have been a hot team winning five straight games, but four of those came on home ice. The road story has certainly not been too tasty for the Panthers of late. Their last four road games show them getting shutout twice and being outscored by a count of 15-3. The Hurricane have improved since starting the season 10-25. Since ground hogs day, they have become a pretty good team as they have posted a winning record covering 21 games and on home ice have shutout opponents twice in their last seven games. This bodes well for them vs. a Panther team struggling for answers on the offensive end on the road. Florida is just 6-13 in their last 19 on the road. Carolina has been at their best off a pair of days rest where they are 5-1 in their last six. Play this one on Carolina.
Dave Price
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
Cleveland's 103-87 loss to Atlanta Sunday and Atlanta's 79-76 loss to Boston Monday sets up a strong situation in favor of the Cavs tonight. Plays on any team that is out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a home loss in which it was held to less than 80 points, are 22-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, and we'll take them in the road dog role here.
Jeff Alexander
Atlanta Hawks -7.5
The Hawks have owned the Cavs but won't back off here following a home loss to Boston last time out. The Hawks have won 6 in a row against the Cavs by an average of 16.8 points and each of these wins have come by at least 12 points. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Atlanta.
Larry Ness
Nevada +6.5
The Wolf Pack entered the 2010-11 season without the 6-9 Babbitt (21.9-8.9) and PG Johnson (15.7-5.6 APG), just two of a total of FIVE Nevada players who have been lost to the NBA over the previous seven years as "early entries." Head coach David Carter had been able to lead the Wolf Pack to their EIGHTH consecutive postseason appearance and seventh-straight 20-win season in 2009-10 but in his second season (last year), Nevada opened 3-10 and finished just 13-19 (8-8 in the WAC). Nevada returned all FIVE of its starters from LY this season, representing 91% of the team's scoring. The Wolf Pack opened the season at home vs Missouri St and inexplicably got blown out, losing 68-46. The team recovered with a solid effort in its next game, losing just 71-65 at UNLV (plus-12 1/2). Three wins followed before the Wolf Pack threw in another 'clunker,' losing 76-55 to BYU in a tourney at Chicago. Nevada beat a bad Bradley team the next night 64-59 but what few realized at the time, it would begin a 16-game winning streak that didn't end until Feb 4. Nevada then won SIX of its last seven regular season games but 'laid an egg' in the WAC Tourney, losing 78-73 to La Tech. The Wolf Pack actually didn't so much 'lay an egg,' as they got 'shot down' by a La Tech team which made 53.1 percent from the floor , including 8-of-14 three-pointers (La Tech averaged 42.2% on the year, including 33.2% on threes). The result was, the 26-6 Wolf Pack was 'banished' to the NIT and was shown even less respect by being asked to play a first round game at Oral Roberts of the Summit League, a team which was 15-0 at home! However, rather that pout, Nevada won 68-59 as 6 1/2-point dogs for its 27th win and then beat Bucknell at home in Reno on Sunday, 75-67. The Wolf Pack must now travel to Stanford, to take on the Cardinal who are 16-3 in Palo Alto. Nevada PG Burton (14.8-4.3 APG) is joined by 6-5 junior Story (14.1) in the backcourt plus 6-8 swingman Evans (6.8-4.8) joins that potent duo on the perimeter. The 6-8 Hunt (10.5-9.8) is joined up front by former Duke player, the 6-7 Czyz, who joined the team last December and averaged 12.3-5.7 in 21 games but this year averages 13.9-6.4. The Cardinal had an impressive 15-3 start to the season but FIVE losses in a six game stretch (Jan 19-Feb 9) saw them slip out of the Pac-12 race. However, the Cardinal did rebound to win FOUR of their last six regular season games, including a 75-70 home win over Cal in the team's regular season finale. However, Stanford drew Cal in its first Pac 12 tourney game and lost, 77-71. Stanford has had two home games so far in the NIT, beating Cleveland St 76-65 and Illinois St, 92-88 in OT. The 6-8 Owens (11.6-5.7) was arguably the team's best player during most of the regular season but he has not played well down the stretch. Freshman guard Chasson Randle (13.8) leads the team in scoring with fellow guard Bright (11.6-3.6 APG) right behind him. No other Stanford player averages as much as 8.0 PPG, giving Nevada a significant talent edge (in my opinion). I'm not sure why Stanford is favored by this much, despite the team's 16-3 mark at home, as well as going 67-19 at home since the start of the 2007-08 season. The Wolf Pack (28-6) have started the same lineup all season and are one win away from equaling the school record of 29 victories set in 2006-07. I think they may just get it here. Either way, I'm taking the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE -3.5 over Minnesota: In their last game the Gophers were given a gift, as they took on a Miami squad that was just not inspired to play and they blew them out. Miami actually played inspired ball for about 3 minutes when they scored 11 in a row, to cut the lead from 12-0 to 12-11, and just think what they could have done to Minnesota had they played the whole game that way. The Gophers have won 4 of ,their last 5 games, but Nebraska, uninspired Miami and an OT win vs Northwestern to go along with the Lasalle wins is not really an impressive resume, plus this is still the same squad that lost 6 games in a row before the season finale vs Nebraska, while scoring just 56.3 ppg over that stretch. MTSU has had a fine season as they are 27-6 overall and 16-1 at home, while outscoring their opponents by 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Now one thing to look at is how does MTSU respond after beating big brother Tennessee in their last game? This is the NIT Tourney. No time for letdowns here. I feel that MTSU's road win over Tennessee was much more impressive as the Vols were an inspired team, while Miami was not. Minnesota will not catch an uninspired team tonight as the Blue Raiders win by at least 8 here.
FAIRFIELD -5 over Robert Morris: The Colonials have had a nice year going 26-10 overall and 13-6 on the road, but i feel they are up against in this one. The Stags have had a nice year as well and they are 11-3 at home and they have played exceptional defense in their home games, where they have allowed just 57.9 ppg on 37.9% shooting. The Colonials have played good defense this year (63.4 ppg), but they have allowed 64.5 ppg on the road, which is about 7 points more than the Stags have allowed at home. Let's also note that in the 11 home games the Statgs have won, all 11 wins have been by at least 6 points. I look for that to continue as they win with ease behind another strong defensive performance on their home floor. KEY TREND--- Fairfield's Johnson is 16-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Nevada +6.5 over STANFORD: 26-6 did not get the Wolfpack into the Big Dance, so they have set their sights on an NIT Championship. Whether they get that far remains to be seen, but I feel they have enough to keep this one close. The Wolf Pack have proven they can compete with just about any team in the Pac-12, going 2-0 this season by beating Washington at home and Arizona State on the road, plus they have been solid on the road overall going 10-2 in their true away games. Stanford did not really play well vs Illinois State and I feel they will have similar problems with this good scoring Wolfpack team as well. Nevada will not be intimidated in this one and i Stanford is not careful then their season will end tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Against a home team off a game in which both teams scored 80+ points if this game involves two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG). This play is 39-15 the last 5 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington State/ Oregon State Under 151.5: Oregon State plays it's games in the 150's, but this Washington State teams plays pretty good defense and they have the ability to slow the game down. They will need to slow the game down as they just don't have enough offense to outscore the Beavers. These teams last met on the 7th of this month and just 133 points were scored in that one. I see the low 140's at best in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh +1 over BUTLER: PITTSBURGH is 26-11 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more since 1997, while BUTLER is 3-12 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons. I really like the way Pitt is playing right and they should move on with a solid win here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ New York under 191.5: Google Play. Dantonio couldn't get the Knicks to play much defense this year, but that has all changed under Woodson as the Knicks have allowed just 88.5 ppg in the 4 games since he took over. The scoring for the Knicks has also been up, but I don't see them getting a ton of points tonight vs the top ranked defensive team in the league.Philadelphia allows the fewest points in the league at 87.7 ppg, plus they are #1 in defensive FG% as they have allowed their opponents to hit just 41.8% of their shots. as scary as those numbers are, they are even scarier at home where the Sixers have allowed just 84.2 ppg on 41.1% shooting. That will certainly test this Knicks offense. The Sixers are not a running team and they just don't score a whole lot as they average just 94.4 ppg overall and just 93.7 ppg at home, plus they come in averaging just 89.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The Sixers will not get into a shootout with this team, especially at home where their home games have averaged just 177.9 ppg. Both teams are playing excellent defense and that should keep this game in the lower 180's at best.
LA Clippers/ Oklahoma City Under 197: The Clippers are having real problems scoring right now as they coming in failing to hit the century mark in 7 straight games, while averaging just 90.3 ppg over that stretch and that includes having an OT game in their as well. Let's also note that they played 6 of those games at home and they haven't played some of the best defensive teams in the league, as Houston, Phoenix, Detroit and Golden State were all part of that stretch. All 4 of those teams are 16th or worse in points allowed. The Good news for the Clipps have been their play at the other end of the floor as they have allowed just 91.4 ppg in their last 7 games and they should be able to hold down this thunder team that has averaged 105.6 ppg at home. In their last 8 games the Thunder didn't face a team that was better than 15th in points allowed and they put up 104.8 ppg over that stretch, but in that stretch they still were able to muster just 90 in games vs Cleveland and Utah last night. Now prior to their last 8 games, they faced 5 teams that are in the top ten in points allowed (Dallas, Philly, Atlanta, Orlando and the Lakers) and they were able to score just 96.4 ppg, so this team can be slowed by good defense and that is just what the Clipps are playing right now. The Clippers weak scoring and strong defense should not allow either team to hit the 98 point mark. I expect this one in the 180's.
Detroit +9 over Denver: The Pistons have been playing much better of late as they have won 5 of their last 8 games and two of those losses were close, with an OT loss at the Clippers and an 8 points loss at Phoenix. Detroit is just 4-18 on the road and have been outscored by 9.3 ppg, but that is better than they were at the beginning when they were outscored by nearly 15 ppg away from home. Detroit does average just 88.6 ppg on the road, but 99.5 ppg on their current trip and they will be facing a bad Denver defense that has allowed 101.5 ppg overall and 103.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Nuggets haven't been world beaters at home this year as they are just 14-12 on their home floor, which is the worst home record of any winning team this year. The Nuggets have gone just 10-16 ATS at home this year and thanks to a defense that has allowed 100.2 ppg on their home floor they have been able to outscore their opponents by just 1.5 ppg at home this year. Detroit has been very competitive of late and they should be able to keep this one close vs a Denver that just can't blow out a lot of teams thanks to their poor defense.
2 UNIT PLAY
DALLAS -4.5 over Lakers: The Lakers are not a really good road team and it showed last night as they played Houston team that was a bit depleted at the PG spot and gave up 107 points in that game. Prior to that the Lakers needed OT to beat New Orleans and Memphis in their last 2 road games. Dallas has won 4 in a row and their offense has picked up as they have averaged 106.5 ppg over that stretch. The Mavs are 18-7 at home, while the Lakers are 9-15 on the road, plus LA is just 5-9 ATS with no rest. The Lakers won by 5 here back in February, but this time will be different as the Mavs win by 7+.
1 UNIT PLAY
Chicago -7.5 over TORONTO: CHICAGO is 25-14 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, while TORONTO is 6-17 ATS versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Sammy P
Detroit at NY Rangers
Play: Under 5
Two teams that are no doubt going to make the playoffs, but both are definitely not at the top of their games. Detroit has been dreadful of late losing five straight and seven of its last eight. The main reason behind their sudden lack of production has to be their lineup. Without the services of Lidstrom, Ericsson, Franzen, and now Helm, this Detroit team has to play a completely different game. Look no further than the Red Wings coach Mike Babcock who said, "With the lineup we have, I don't think we can race anybody to four or five (goals). We've got to win 3-2 or 2-1. You've got to give up as little as you possibly can and be sound defensively. We're not going to outscore teams with the group we have. It's just not possible. So we have to find different ways to win." That quote screams UNDER hockey to me. And facing a Rangers team who is third in the league in goals against and the Red Wings will have their hands full again tonight. Expect a low scoring game between these two teams trying to find their way at the end of the season.