Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 2,2011

Hollywood Sports

Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves (14-47) come off a 90-79 loss to the Lakers last night as a 9-point underdog and will likely be relieved to facing a Pistons' team playing out the string. What Minnesota lacks in talent they make up for in playing hard night in and night out. The same cannot be said for the Pistons (22-40) that have become the most dysfunctional team in the league with the player mutiny against coach Jon Kuester. Detroit is a prime candidate to be flat after having lost in Milwaukee the night before by a narrow 92-90 score. And while the T-Wolves are just 4-25 on the road, the Pistons have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Take the points with Minnesota.

New Mexico at BYU
Play: New Mexico

The Lobos (18-11) really need to add another signature win on their resume -- and they know they have what it takes to defeat the Cougars after their 86-77 win over them on January 29th. Steve Alford's club has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They may be getting BYU (27-2) just at the right time as they return home after defeating San Diego State in their gym on Saturday by an 80-67 score. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games coming off a point spread victory. BYU has another reason to lack focus tonight after forward Brandon Davies was suspended for the rest of the season for violating school conduct policies. Davies was the Cougars' 3rd leading scorer with his 11.1 PPG average while also pulling down 6.2 RPG. His lack of presence may make double-teams on Jimmer Fredette more effective. In all, the Lobos have a great opportunity to keep this game within single digits. Take the points with New Mexico.

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons

The Pistons havent been much to look at from a straight-up standpoint this season (22-39) but, unlike the Timberwolves (14-46 SU, 28-33 ATS), they haven?t hurt their backers (33-28 ATS) in the least. In fact, if we pick our spots, we can make money with this under-the-radar bunch. Tonight is one of them. The T-Wolves topped Detroit, 109-99, at home earlier this season and our database insists that sets the stage for this rematch. Not only are the Pistons 6-2 ATS over their last eight home games with double-digit same-season revenge but they are 4-0 SU and ATS in this series with revenge in general. The Motowners are also 9-3 ATS in this matchup when given the favorite label and 4-1 SU and ATS when the Wolves arrive with no rest. The visitors are also in the midst of a revenge sandwich that has them leaving L.A. (3-18 SU, 6-14-1 ATS after the Lakers) with a trip to Philly on deck (12-24 SU, 10-25-1 ATS before Sixers). Look for the Pistons to hit on all cylinders tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Frank Jordan

Clemson vs. Duke
Play: Duke -12.5

Duke dropped to number four after that loss at Virginia Tech on February 26th. Now that they are back home look for the 16-0 at home Duke team to dominate the 19-9 Clemson team who has struggled on the road at 3-6. Duke will make it a perfect 17-0 at home with a monster 20 point win going away. Play Duke

Rob Vinciletti

Portland vs. Sacramento
Play: Over 197½

This game fits a tight totals system here tonight. What we want to do is play the over when we have a road favorite of -4 or less with no rest that scored 90 or less as a home favorite of -5 or more last night that is taking an opponent that scored 90 or more at home in their last game. This system has cashed 7 of the last 8 times. The Blazers are off a bad 103-87 loss at home to Houston last night while the Kings defeated the Clippers on Monday. All teams that travel into Sacramento with no rest and scored 90 or less the night before have played over 88% of the time provided the Kings scored 90 or more at home last out. Finally the Blazers have played over 7 of 9 times on the road after scoring 90 or less. Look for this to go over the total.

Dennis Macklin

UAB vs. Southern Miss
Play: Southern Miss -4½

Southern Miss won by four at UAB crushing the Blazers on the boards while still overcoming UAB 12-22 shooting from downtown. Small CUSA home favorites have been extremely strong and Southern Miss has won and covered last four comfortably by a combined 50 points, all wins of seven plus. Add to the mix that Southern Miss can get two game home court monkey off their back with win over rival UAB and we'll give light nod to the home team in what figures to be hard fought game. Take Southern Miss.

Jim Feist

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings
Take: Sacramento Kings +3

Reason: The Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Pacific and in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Despite a four-game home stand, Portland has been struggling, losing at home twice (once as a favorite to the Hawks, part of an 0-3 ATS run. Sacramento plays its best basketball at home, and the Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grab the rested home team in this one. Play the Kings!

Nelly

Providence + over Louisville

With three straight wins Louisville is gaining some steam in the Big East and the national rankings but this is still a team that deserves some skepticism. Seven of eleven conference wins have come by four or fewer points including overtime victories in arguably the two biggest wins of the season. When the Cardinals played Providence on the road they lost by five and while there may be some revenge motivation this game comes off a huge win over Pittsburgh on Sunday and the attention that followed it due to the bizarre finish. The Friars are 3-13 in Big East play but wins over Louisville and Villanova stand out. Providence also took Cincinnati to overtime and recently lost by just one to Notre Dame. Early in the year Providence lost by two to St. John's and by four to Pittsburgh so the difference between the Friars and the top of the conference is not as large as it seems in the standings. Providence is 0-9 on the road this season but with a double-digit spread a competitive effort will earn a cover. The Friars will push the pace and coming off a lopsided loss last weekend this should be a team eager for this challenge, facing a team they have already defeated with a Louisville in a tricky letdown spot.

EZWINNERS

Denver Nuggets -6.5

The Bobcats are dealing with a retooled lineup after trading away arguably their best player in Gerald Wallace and also big man Nazr Mohammed, but Denver is working wonders with their new roster. Denver is 3-1 since trading away Carmelo Anthony and they are 4-0 against the spread in those games. The Nuggets field a very athletic lineup now and I like the way they match up with the Bobcats. I expect Denver's newly acquired point guard Raymond Felton to play tonight and have a big game against his former team. The Bobcats are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six trips to Denver and Charlotte is also just 5-15-1 against the spread in their last twenty one games against teams from the NBA Northwest. Lay the points.

Craig Trapp

Connecticut vs. West Virginia
Play: Under 131.5

Both of these two teams have really been playing great defense in L5 games. Both teams have played 4 of last 5 games under and tonight will be another. Man to man defense will be the key for both teams winning tonight and don't expect much up and down play as this will be a knock down drag out physical game. Low 60's score for both and easy under for us.

JR O'Donnell

Western Mich. -4

We will play the 16-11 WMU Broncos to "Get it Done" tonight @ University Arena in Kalamazoo Michigan. Senior Night and 18-12 Ball State is the medicine for this team tonight to HANG UP a quality W. The Vegas lines makers & the O'ster have respect for the Broncos @ -4 who are facing Ball State, a team that is a perfect 0-8 away this year as installed as a dog. The Broncos lead the series 35-18 when playing at University Arena & we will ride Demetrius Ward has scored in double figures in last 13 games and in all Mid-American Conference games so far this season! WMU is a confident bunch they murdered Eastern Michigan by 27 last game... 87-60 on the road... Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record & the home team punches in @ 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +129 over NEW JERSEY

The Devils are scorching hot and they’re winning a ton of games these days, however, just like they weren’t as bad as they appeared when they were losing, they’re not as good as they appear now that they’re winning. A close look reveals that the Devils have scored two goals or less in six of their past eight games and only lost once during that span. It doesn’t matter who you are, you’re not going to keep winning games scoring once or twice, period. It’s also worth noting that New Jersey returns home from a four-game trip. The Bolts are rock solid. This team is still not getting the credit they deserve but watch out for them. All the talk after the deadline was how the Caps improved with the additions of Jason Arnott and Dennis Wideman but let’s not forget about the Lightning. Even though they did nothing on deadline day, they strengthened themselves beforehand. Eric Brewer improved their defense, Marc-Andre Bergeron bettered the power play and Dwayne Roloson steadied their goaltending. They have three lines that all can score and there isn’t a team in the NHL that possess a more dangerous first two lines than the Lightning. They can win games 7-6 or they can win 2-1. Tampa has won three in a row, 11 of their last 16 games and regardless of the outcome here, in no way should they be getting a tag like this against the Devils. Overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +129 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. ISLANDERS +114 over Minnesota

The Islanders may be out of it while the Wild are right in the middle of the mayhem but Minnesota does not warrant being road chalk. The Wild have had a genie following them around all season long. They’ve won more games than any team in the league when being badly outplayed. Minnesota’s recent win in Anaheim was another prime example of that. The whole second half of the game was played in their end yet they got a late lucky goal between Dan Ellis’s legs from far range and ultimately won in OT after being outshout 48-31. Jose Theodore stood on his head and that’s typical of so many of their wins this season. They get outplayed, they get a fluke goal or two and somehow manage to skate away with a win while everyone that witnessed it is shaking their head in disbelief. The Islanders are the opposite. They’ve deserved to win more games than they have. The Islanders are on a four game losing streak and probably should have at least three. They lost to the Caps twice, once in OT and had a late third period lead last night and a 2-0 lead on Saturday. Against Philly they lost 4-3 in OT and against the Leafs they were the better team in a 2-1 loss. So yeah, one can make an argument that the Islanders find ways to lose while Minnesota finds ways to win and that argument is valid. However, in no way can you convince us that the Wild are more talented or more determined and thus, the better team at home taking back a tag is the play. Play: N.Y. Islanders +114 (Risking 2 units).

Tom Freese

Portland at Sacramento
Play: Portland

Sacramento is 15-43 straight up this year. The Kings are 17-37-1 ATS their 55 games as underdogs 0.5 to 4.5 points. The Kings are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games as underdogs. The Kings are 10-29-1 ATS their last 40 games as home underdogs. Portland is 33-27 straight up this year. The Blazers are 25-10-3 ATS their last 38 games as road favorites. The Blazers are 6-0-1 ATS their last 7 road games vs. a team with home win percentage of less than 40%. Portland is 26-11-1 ATS when playing with no rest. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS at Sacramento.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Orleans +124 over NEW YORK

How the f**k can the Knicks only be a 2½-point favorite over a Hornets team that lost in Toronto last night? This is a Knicks team that just beat the Heat in Miami on Sunday night in a game that the whole country watched and in a game in which they trailed by 15 points. New York has suddenly become a factor with Carmelo Anthony and the whole betting population is all over them here. We’re not talking about some small-market team that nobody is following. We’re talking about a Knicks team that everyone has interest in and there’s just no way that the oddsmakers made an oversight here. The Hornets not only lost to the Raps last night but they’ve lost five of seven with only wins over that stretch occurring against the Clip Joint and T-Wolves. The books are dangling a gigantic carrot in front of your face and urging you to bite. We’re urging you to go the other way. The line says so. Play: New Orleans +124 (Risking 2 units).

WASHINGTON –1 over Golden State

The Wizards have dropped six in a row and as a result of that, combined with a 15-44 record, they’re undervalued here. A close look, however, reveals that the last six losses that the Wiz have endured has come in Orlando, in Philly, in Miami and at home to Dallas, Chicago and Indy. All those teams with the exception of Orlando were red-hot when they faced the Wiz. Washington takes a huge step down in class now when facing a Warriors team that has seven wins in 27 road games. Additionally, the Warriors will play the Celtics on Friday and this is a game that is just very unlikely to get their competitive juices flowing. The Wiz lose a lot of games but they’re a young and upcoming squad that can smell a win here and we expect them to get it. Play: Washington –1 +100 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Saint Louis vs. Dayton
Play: Dayton -6.5

Dayton is coming off a disappointing loss against Xavier on Saturday but there is no time to be down about as the Flyers need to close the season strong. They fell to 7-7 in the Atlantic Ten with that defeat and that was just their fourth home loss of the season. Three of those came against conference opponents but the three were against the top three teams in the A-10 in Temple, Xavier and Richmond. Defeating the lower-tiered teams in the conference has not been an issue and it won’t be one here. St. Louis has won three straight games which is its largest winning streak of the season but don’t expect this momentum to continue. The Billikens did defeat then 9-4 Duquesne on Saturday but the other wins came against Independent Chicago St., currently 6-24 and Charlotte, currently 2-12 in the conference. And the common theme for those games was that they all took place at home so after a three-game homestand, St. Louis hits the road once again where it is currently 1-9 on the season. The Billikens only road win this season came at Fordham which is winless in the conference at 0-14. Take that aberration away and St. Louis is getting outscored by 13.8 ppg in its nine road losses. With two games left in the regular season, the Flyers are one of three teams competing for the final two slots for home games in the opening round of the Atlantic Ten Tournament so winning out is vital. They would clinch a home game based on tiebreaker scenarios. The Billikens are 4-11 ATS this season when playing against teams with a winning record and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Also, winning streaks have not been kind to gain any momentum as St. Louis is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games on the road after winning three of its last four games. The Flyers meanwhile are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites of fewer than seven points. 3* (732) Dayton Flyers