Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oklahoma City Thunder -8
Off three straight losses to three of the best teams in the NBA (Spurs, Magic, Lakers), the Thunder will be ready to take out their frustrations on the Pacers this evening. In addition to its motivational edge, OKC also has the edge in terms of freshness. The Thunder have had two days to gear up for this one while the Pacers just played last night. With this in mind, I can't fail to mention that the Pacers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing without a day of rest. It also can't be ignored that Indiana is 1-8 ATS when matched up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, losing to these foes by an average score of 100.7 to 90.1. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 6-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 107.1 to 94.3. We'll lay the points.
Patrick Webb
Iowa vs. Michigan State
Play: Iowa +11
I like Iowa and the points in this match up. This game will likely go down to the wire- these teams are incredibly similar statistically in the Big Ten with the only significant advantage for either team is Michigan State's rebounding edge. Iowa won this season's match up by a surprising 20 point margin in Iowa City and did it without shooting a lot of threes. Michigan State is really struggling this season and could be pressing knowing they likely need to win tonight and on Saturday to have any chance at the NCAA tournament.
Iowa is the deeper team- they only lack a true back up point guard, and Bryce Cartwright can produce enough to offset the likely production of Kalin Lucas. Iowa should actually win the production in the post area with Jarryd Cole and Melsahn Basabe who are both competent from the foul line. Iowa should also get enough production from Gatens, May, McCabe, and Marble to offset a bounce back game from either Summers or Green.
Even when Iowa was a much worse team this has been a team they play well going 8-3 ATS including a couple of upset wins. A couple of other trends that will likely make this a close game- MSU is 1-8 ATS following an ATS loss, and are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite from 7.0-12.5 in the last 10 situations. The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series' last 6 games and the Underdog is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Larry Ness
Charlotte @ Denver
PICK: Denver -6.5
Are the Nuggets actually a better team without ‘Melo (and Billups)? I asked that question Monday night while ‘riding’ the Nuggets to a win over the Hawks. The Nuggets are now 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS since “the trade” and I’m back on them here. Afflalo (15.3-3.3-3.8 the last four games) and Lawson (9.3-6.5 APG the L4) are starting in the backcourt with Felton (16-5-7 vs Atlanta) and Smith (11.6-4.2 TY) coming off the bench. However, don’t be surprised if Felton (17.1-9.0 APG with the Knicks), is starting soon. Chandler (17.0-5.3 with Denver) starts up front and while Gallinari will miss seven to 10 days with a toe injury, Martin returned to the lineup to post 14 & 11 vs Atlanta. Nene (14.9-7.2) is steady as it goes as an undersized center with Andersen (4.4-4.9) adding energy and excitement off the bench plus Harrington (10.9-5.0) offering consistency. Here’s what Felton said after Monday’s win. “A lot of lineups can work,” said Felton, who spent his first five seasons with the Bobcats before signing with the Knicks in July. “We’ve got a deep team. It will take (coach George Karl) a while, but I know coach is a great coach. … He’ll figure it out.” In comparison, Charlotte’s dealing of the team’s second-leading scorer (Wallace) and its top interior defender (Mohammed) for Joel Przybilla, Dante Cunningham and D.J. White, seems like no more than “clearing cap space.” That trio made its Bobcats debut Sunday, combining for just six points off the bench. The 6-10 Sean marks was also acquired via trade but has yet to play. This is an important game for Denver which is 35-26. That leaves them only 2 1/2-games back of Okla City (No. 4 seed) but also just 2 1/2-games ahead of Memphis (currently 9th and out of the playoff ‘picture.’). The Nuggets will play seven of eight on the road following this contest, so winning here is a BIG deal. Since entering the league, Charlotte has lost five of six at the Pepsi Center, including the last three by an average of 12.6 PPG. The Bobcats will be fortunate to stay that close, here. Lay the points.
Ray Monohan
Texas A&M vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -12½
First off a big thank you to the Texas Longhorns. Their late season meltdown has put KU in the drivers seat to once again capture the Big 12 conference crown! KANSAS are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tonight the Jayhawks take on the Texas A+M Aggies. Winners of 5 of their last 6. The Aggies, snapped their five-game winning streak with a loss at Baylor on Saturday. KU have won the last 3 games by an average of more than 21 points, plus I think its safe to say they have found their physical inside game again. Kansas has won 5 straight and leads the series 16-1. Texas A&M's victory came on Feb. 3, 2007 at Allen Fieldhouse, that my friends was a long long time ago in a galaxy far far away. Throw this little tidbit in and you'll see why I'm all over KU tonight. It is Senior Night for the Jayhawks, and they have won the past 27 home season finales. Sorry coach Turgeon (KU 87 grad) it's not going to be a nice homecoming for you. I anticipate hearing ‘Rock Chalk Jayhawk’ from the crowd at the Field House tonight. Some trends I like for this one include, Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, plus are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Red Dog Sports
Clemson vs. Duke
Pick: Duke -12
Clemson is a good squad that has played well after losing Oliver Pernell to Depaul. The Tigers have a winning record in the ACC and have kept their losses close without getting blown out. They did lose at UNC by 10 but it was tied with 3 minutes left. They did lose at FSU by 6 and lost at home to Michigan by 8.
Duke just lost at Virginia Tech in an ugly game. Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith had shooting problems and Smith missed a one and one late. The Plumlees have struggled on offense most of the year. I expect Duke to bounce back from the Hokie loss and win tonight and cover. Here are the Duke home games in the last month:
beat Temple by 17
beat Ga Tech by 22
beat UNC by 6
beat NCSU by 24
beat BC by 16
Duke won last year by 21 at home. Clemson's PG Stitt may not play and that will help Duke. It should be a low scoring game but I expect Smith, Singler, Dawkins, Curry, Ryan Kelly and the Plumlees to help Duke win and cover tonight.
Jack Jones
Arkansas -6.5
Arkansas is still alive for the NCAA Tournament, while Mississippi State is not. They are alive because they have won four of their last five games overall, including a huge home victory over Kentucky to improve to 18-10 on the season and 7-7 in the conference. This is Senior Night for the Razorbacks, and they will also be looking to revenge a 56-67 loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting of the season. The Razorbacks will clearly be the more motivated team in this contest tonight.
Coming off a huge 1-point win at Tennessee and also having beaten Arkansas already, this is the ideal letdown spot for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is just 4-8 on the road this season and 4-7 ATS, losing by an average of 9.2 PPG. Arkansas is 15-2 at home and 6-4 ATS, winning by 14.0 PPG. The Bulldogs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Arkansas is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Bulldogs. Bet Arkansas Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa State -1
The Cyclones finally have some momentum on their side after bringing their 10-game skid to an end with a win over Nebraska Saturday. I expect them to stay hungry tonight as they look to avenge an embarrassing 95-69 loss at Colorado last month. Because the Buffs won the first meeting by such a large margin and are coming off a big upset win over Texas, they won't give Iowa State the focus it deserves tonight. Plus, Colorado has really struggled away from Boulder, where it is just 4-9 this season. Iowa State is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games off a home win against a conference rival. It is winning by an average score of 73.4 to 65.7 in this situation. Take the Cyclones.
Info Plays
3* Clemson +13
Reasons why Clemson will cover:
Info Plays has won 7 straight free picks, an are 14-3 in his last 17 free picks!
1) While the Tigers don't have much of a shot at winning at Duke, we feel like they have a great shot at keeping this game close. The Tigers biggest loss this season is 8-points, and a good performance against the Blue Devils will go a long way in helping them make the NCAA Tournament.
2) Clemson is 11-2 ATS in road games off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997, and are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
3) Duke is just 9-21 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -6.5
Expect Boston to avenge a lopsided 17-point loss at Phoenix against a Suns squad that should be feeling the effects of the road tonight. This is the Suns' 4th road game in 6 days, and 2 of those contests have gone into overtime. Boston is 25-5 at home this season. We'll take the much fresher Celtics in this revenge spot. Lay the points.
MTI Sports
Suns at Celtics
Play: Over
The Suns swept the Celtics last season and they are going for another season sweep here. In their first meeting this season, the Celtics shot 34.2% from the field and lost 88-71. That offensive performance is still their worst this season. That is, the fewest points that the Celtics have scored this season is 71 and the worst shooting percentage the Celtics have had this season is 34.2%. Boston was 100% healthy for that game, and their only excuse is that they were playing the second of back-to-back road games. We expect the Celtics to put up some points tonight.
First of all, Boston is 13-0 OU as a home favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field, going over by an average of 14.9 ppg. In addition, Boston is 11-0 OU (+14.7 ppg) at home after playing as a favorite when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Also, the Celtics are 6-0 OU (21.8 ppg) with rest after a win in which Ray Allen had more turnovers than assists and 6-0 OU (20.1 ppg) after two away games in which Kevin Garnett had a double-double in each. Consider these two OVER.
SPORTS WAGERS
LASALLE –11½ over Fordham
The Explorers are just 13-16 overall and an unimpressive 5-9 in the A-10 but there are good things about this squad. For one, they’re excellent on the boards and they’re ranked 31st in the nation in points scored per game. They had a whole bunch of good losses this year that include a three-point loss against Villanova, a double OT loss to Oklahoma St., a 10-point loss at Baylor, and a 12-point loss against Missouri. The Explorers are also coming off a 100-62 loss against Xavier and that’s a loss like that stings. Now LaSalle gets to take that sting out on the Fordham Rams, a team that would have trouble beating the women’s LaSalle team (if they have one). Where does one even begin when discussing the Rams? Well, we can start with their last win, which came on Dec 22 against Kennesaw State. Fordham is 0-14 in the conference and they’ve lost an incredible 40 straight conference games. With two games left and this one being on the road, the Rams have Saturday’s home game against UMass to focus on breaking that ugly streak. They have no shot here against a team that just lost by 38 points and is just looking to take it out on someone. The Explorers found the right victim and it would be totally shocking to see the Rams stay within this range. Play: #746 LaSalle (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Telly
1 of 3 free plays tonight
Iowa St. -1.5
Tony George
Texas A&M vs. Kansas
Play: Texas A&M +13
Kansas has all the marbles in their court in the Big 12 with Texas falling down again but for some reason this number seems very high to me. Texas AM one of the better road teams in the Big 12, and although KU blew them out at home, nothing comes easy this time of the year and KU has a big target on their back. Texas AM can play defense and hold the score down which makes double digit points with a tourney team for sure look very tasty.
Black Widow
1* on Southern Miss -4.5
Southern Miss get the call as Wednesday's free pick. Getting the Eagles as a mere 4.5-point home favorite tonight is an absolute gift from odds makers. These are two pretty evenly matched teams with UAB at 20-7 and USM at 21-7, but the Eagles have a huge edge since they are playing at home. Southern Miss is 13-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, winning by 19.8 points/game. Now that's domination folks. They have already beaten UAB on the road 74-70, and trailing the Blazers by one game in the conference, the Eagles will be highly motivated to cap off the season sweep tonight. This is also Senior Night which adds a little more fuel to the fire, plus they are coming off a 1-point loss at UCF and want to erase the sour taste from that setback. The Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. USM is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Southern Miss and lay the points.