SPORTS WAGERS
Georgia Tech +5 over SAN DIEGO ST
One could make a case for many of these NIT teams that they should have received an at-large bid and the Aztecs are no different. SDSU went 16-2 in the Mountain West and 25-9 overall. However, its loss to Fresno State in the MWC championship sealed their fate. The Mountain West is not a strong conference. It featured teams like New Mexico State, Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Boise State and UNLV among others. The Aztecs beat up on most of them and they were absolutely the best team in that conference but so what. The Aztecs played just three ranked teams all year with the last one coming before Christmas. That’s a long time not be battle tested. The Aztecs have a 22-point loss to West Virginia on their slate along with other losses to Grand Canyon (52-45), Fresno State (x2), Boise State and San Diego to name a few. Incidentally, the Aztecs lost two of the three games against ranked teams, beating Cal but losing to Utah and Kansas. If the Yellow Jackets played in the same conference as State, they may have earned an at-large bid with a conference championship.
Tech’s strength of schedule this season ranked eighth in the country. The Yellow Jackets were the highest-rated team to not receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets have compiled a 21-14 overall record this season, the most wins by a Tech team since the 2009-10 season and they went 8-10 in the very tough ACC. Only two Tech teams have won more games overall since 1996. The Jackets go to San Diego having won eight of their last 10 games, including an 81-62 victory over Houston in opening round of the NIT and an 83-66 win on the road over No. 1 seed South Carolina in the second round. Over its last six regular season games, Tech defeated Florida State, No. 19 Notre Dame, Clemson, Boston College and Pittsburgh and lost only to No. 11 Louisville (on the road by three). The Jackets then defeated Clemson in the first round of the ACC Tournament before falling to fourth-ranked Virginia. The Yellow Jackets have some very notable wins this season, which include a 13-point victory over VCU and a four-point win over Virginia. Speaking of battle tested teams, the Yellow Jackets have played tournament teams, Duke, Villanova, North Carolina, Miami, Pittsburgh, Green Bay (who they beat by 30), Syracuse and VCU. They also played #11 Louisville twice. The Yellow Jackets appear to be extremely motivated in this event. Tech has five seniors, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Charles Mitchell, Nick Jacobs, Adam Smith and James White that all play impactful minutes. These are generous points based on each teams’ overall record and because the game is in San Diego but if the Jackets play to their capabilities like they did in the first two rounds of the NIT, SDSU will be their next victim. We get the much better team here with significant points. Upset alert is on.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +111 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. Hockey is truly a funny game. Take the Bruins for example. Here’s a team that was winning constantly despite giving up dozens of high quality scoring chances and shots on goal. In fact, Boston had more wins than any team in the NHL when giving up 35 shots on net or more. Claude Julien insisted that the B’s had to cut down on time spent in their end and cut way down on shots on net. Well, the Bruins did exactly that by allowing just 27, 26 and 20 and 26 shots on net over their last four games. The results? Boston went 1-3 in those three games, including losing the last three. Shots on net aren’t everything. You still have to bury the puck when the opportunities arise but that’s not a problem for the B’s. Boston is the third highest scoring team in the NHL behind Washington and Dallas and its improved play behind the blue-line over its last four games in succession is a positive sign going forward. Boston has been off since Saturday so they have had plenty of time to work on other areas as well.
The Rangers will play consecutive home games here for the first time in 39 days. That’s some extensive travel that the Rangers have had to endure. They returned home on Monday from a West Coast trip and defeated the Panthers, 4-2. There was nothing illegitimate about that victory, as New York played a rare, sound 60 minutes of hockey. This is now their second game back after all that extensive traveling. When teams are not flat in their first game back, they are usually flat in the follow-up game. Aside from that, the Rangers just aren’t that good. Their record says otherwise but we can point to many teams over the years that had great regular seasons based on plenty of good luck only to get buried in the first round of the playoffs and miss the playoffs entirely the next year (see Colorado and Vancouver most recently). The Rangers have the potential to be dangerous, as we saw last season but they had the metrics to back it up last year. This year they do not. The Rangers ranks 25th out of 30 teams in offensive time possession and 24th out of 30 teams in time spent in their own end. Only the Avalanche, Senators, Coyotes, Flames and Oilers have spent more time in their own end than the Rangers. Until the Rangers show us something different, our relentless attack on this group will not stop and we make no exceptions here.
Big Al
Ottawa vs. NY Islanders
Pick: NY Islanders
It seems that the Ottawa Senators' "reward" for trouncing the Montreal Canadiens, 5-0 at home on Saturday is having to play the best team in the league followed by having to visit what has become one of the toughest arenas in the league (in its first season). On Tuesday, the Senators hosted the league-leading Caps and lost 4-2, and now the following day they have to travel to Brooklyn to face the Islanders. Barclays Center is the new home of the Isles, and it's quickly becoming a venue that nobody besides the home team looks forward to playing in. That's because the Islanders' home record is one the best in the East, and they've only lost nine times in regulation here, the third-lowest such number in the Conference behind only the Caps and Rangers. This will be the Senators' first visit to Barclays Center and they've been having particular problems against quality teams lately. With the loss to the Caps yesterday, Ottawa is now 0-5 in their last five games vs. clubs with a winning record. The Islanders are 6-2 in their last eight games here at home.
Power Sports
Lakers vs. Suns
Pick: Over
Both of these teams have been trending Under recently, including one game against each other, a 95-90 Suns' win last Friday. But given the overall defensive ineptitude on both sides, I'm forecasting that we'll see a lot more points scored in this rematch & thus the Over is a strong recommendation here.
Phoenix has stayed Under in each of its last four contests. The driving force behind that has been their own poor shooting as they've been below 40% from the field in each of the last three. Assuming they can get their act together offensively, I have every reason to believe that this will turn into a high-scoring affair. The Suns are allowing 107.6 PPG this year, so the Lakers should be able to score w/ relative ease as well. By the way, the Lakers (who rate dead last in defensive efficiency) give up 109.9 PPG on the road.
Both teams shot just 36% from the field when they met last Friday. Given the defensive numbers that I just went through, they should each see improvement here. Another key is that Phoenix averages 103.1 PPG at home, about six more points per game than they average on the road. This is also the second game of a back to back for the Lakers (6-2 Under L8 games) and they are giving up a whopping 112 PPG in that situation this year. Last night's game vs. Memphis did go Over, albeit a lower number. But tonight's total is several points lower than it was last Friday.
SPS Investors
Georgia Tech vs. San Diego St.
Pick: San Diego State
There is certainly no question that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have been red hot offensively as of late. They come into this matchup having beaten two good teams in Houston and South Carolina rather decisively in this tournament. The Yellow Jackets shot 52% in their opening round win over Houston, which included an 8 for 16 performance from three point range and their latest win over South Carolina was even more impressive than that. Many thought that the Gamecocks were a potential NCAA Tournament team this season and the Yellow Jackets not only beat them; they destroyed them! As a team they shot 51% from the field while connecting on 11 of 22 from beyond the arc. Georgia Tech led by as many as 30 in that contest and there is no question that that performance will certainly skew the perception of a majority of sports bettors heading into this contest with the Aztecs.
While Georgia Tech's offense has been red-hot, we fully expect that it will cool down in this contest as they have yet to play a team as defensively sound as the SDSU Aztecs. The Aztecs come into this contest ranked 3rd in the nation in scoring defense, holding teams to just 60 points per game. They also rank number 1 overall in defensive shooting average as they are allowing teams to shoot just 37% from the field. We expect the Aztecs to be firmly in the face of the Georgia Tech shooters in this contest and that is something that the Yellow Jackets have not had to contend with in either of their opening round matchups.
With this game being played at Viejas Arena, this also gives the Aztecs a decided advantage. After last night's Monday night's victory over the Washington Huskies, SDSU is now 15-5 in this venue this season. The Yellow Jackets have been mediocre at best on the road, going just 5-7 in true road games this season. It’s only a matter of time before a poor shooting performance plagues the Yellow Jackets and we believe it will happen in this contest. This matchup has let-down written all over it for the Yellow Jackets and we believe the Aztecs take advantage and punches their tickets to the semi-finals.
Larry Ness
Grand Canyon vs. Coastal Carolina
Pick: Coastal Carolina
The Chanticleers have handled their first two CIT foes here at home...
Grand Canyon was on the brink of going out of business not long ago but local Phoenix area ‘heavyweights’ led a fund-raising campaign that has worked. The school now has a nice on-campus arena, a high-profile local name as head coach in former NBA Suns star Dan Majerle and membership in the WAC, although the Antelopes are still in a "transition phase" to Division-I status. However, Grand Canyon is eligible to compete in events such as the CIT and is doing so again this year, just like last season.
Last year’s team lost its first CIT game (at Northern Arizona) but this time around, the Antelopes have won home games against South Carolina St and Jackson St. Grand Canyon enters this game 25-6, a record which includes a win at San Diego St (Aztecs are still playing in the NIT and own a 27-9 record) plus a neutral-site win (Las Vegas) over Houston, which came into that game 8-1 and finished its season 22-10. Sophomore guard Braun (16.9-5.2) and 6-6 Saint Louis transfer Glaze (13.9-8.7) are the team’s top players. PG Russell (9.7-5.4 APG) led the team in scoring last year at 14.2 PPG and is still an important cog this season plus 6-6 JUCO Keonta Vernon (7.2-5.5) plays the role of enforcer.
While Grand Canyon has had a nice season, this near cross-country trip to the Myrtle Beach area to take on Coastal Carolina, is a “tough spot.” The Chanticleers are coached by veteran Cliff Ellis, who took this school to the Big Dance in both 2014 and 2015, the FOURTH school Ellis has taken to the NCAA tournament (others are South Alabama, Clemson and Auburn). This year’s squad owns four double digit scorers in starting guards Wilson (13.9-6.0) and Shaw (11.5) plus guard Wiggins (12.8-3.0-3.7) and the 6-6 Diagne (11.4-7.2), both of whom come off the bench. Ray St-Cyr (8.2-5.6) starts in the backcourt with Wilson and Shaw, while the 6-7 Curtis (6.1-6.9) and the 6-8 Freeman (5.7-5.6) start up front, giving Ellis a quality seven-man rotation.
Coastal Carolina is 13-3 at home, losing just one-point league contests to Liberty and High Point, plus a three-point decision to Auburn of the SEC. The Chanticleers have handled their first two CIT foes here at home, holding Mercer and New Hampshire to a combined 35% on FGs. So what else is new? Coastal Carolina’s defensive will enter this contest allowing 39.4 percent to rank 14th in the nation, including 30.5% on threes, which ranks 13th. All in all, this pointspread seems modest. Lay it!
Jim Feist
Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets
Pick: Denver Nuggets
The 76ers are ugly, getting beat by double digits most games. For the season they are getting outscored by a 107.6 to 97 average. The 76ers are on a 5-12 ATS run and 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Denver is on a 4-0 ATS run at home and returns from a rough road trip. Coach Michael Malone says his players quit the last game, a loss at Cleveland. The Nuggets are 14-5 ATS following a straight up loss. D.J. Augustin has been the Denver Nuggets' most valuable player recently. He is averaging 14.8 points and is shooting 48.7 percent from the field in 12 of 16 games. It was Augustin who came off the bench and scored 24 points in 23 minutes to lift the Nuggets over Charlotte for their most recent victory on this road trip. The Nuggets are 15-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Ben Burns
Bruins vs. Rangers
Play: Bruins +115
The Bruins have dropped three straight games, the fifth time that's happened. They haven't lost four in a row all season long though, going 4-0 (+4.6) when attempting to snap a 3-game skid. Note that three of those four games came on the road, too. The B's lost their first three games of the season but responded with a 6-2 win at Colorado. The next time it happened, they won (at NYI) by a score of 2-1. The next two times it was on a 3-game slide, Boston won 7-3 and 4-1. That's a combined score of 19-7 in winning those four games. True, the Rangers are tough to beat here. The Bruins are nearly as good on the road though, as they're 23-13 (+11.6) away from Boston. NY 'survived' its first game back home from the West Coast but that trip could still take a toll here. Note that Rangers are 10-12 (-5.6) off a win by two or more goals. Bruins worth a look as a dog.
Rob Vinciletti
Magic vs. Pistons
Play: Over 209
Orlando has flown over in 4 of 5 on the road if the total is 205 to 210 and the Pistons are 4 of 5 over as a home favorite from -6.5 to -9 and 14 of 19 at home off 3+ home games. Rested home favorites of 5 or more off a spread loss at -5 or more that scored 90 or more and had 15 or less turnovers have posted over the total over 85% vs a team that failed to cover by 1-3 points as a road dog like Orlando. take this over over the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Cal-Irvine vs. UL-Lafayette
Play: Cal-Irvine +2½
The Anteaters wrapped up December with a 78-53 loss at Kansas. But since the calendar moved to 2016, UCI has been red-hot. Cal Irvine enters tonight's game with a 16-4 SU mark since January 1st, including an 8-1 SU (6-3 ATS) mark on the road. Tonight, I believe the better team is getting points. The 49ers play well at both ends of the floor, making 46.2% of their FGA, while ranked 7th in the nation at the other end of the floor, holding teams to 38.8% shooting. Luke Nelson and Alex Young make a solid pair in the backcourt and both can set the tone. The two guards have combined for 291 assists with just 108 turnovers. Leading rebounder, second leading scorer, and chief shot-blocker Mamadou Ndiaye is expect to play tonight. UCI can bring plenty of waves of depth with 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes played per game. UL-Lafayette has won four of their last five games, but they've been a mess on the deep perimeter at both ends of the floor all season. Shawn Long means just about everything to this team, averaging 19 & 12, but the backcourt turns the ball over too much for my blood. I mentioned earlier that UCI has held teams to 38.8% shooting on the season because UL-Lafayette enters on a 0-7 ATS slide, while losing by an average of 7 ppg against teams that hold their opponents to 39% or less shooting.
Ray Monohan
Magic vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -7
The Pistons welcome in the Magic to the Palace of Auburn Hills and it's the home team with value here. The pressure is on Detroit now. They find themselves in a tie for the 8th spot with the Bulls and every game matters at this points.
The Pistons are playing extremely well, thanks to Andre Drummond. The C has recorded 4 straight double doubles and hit the game winning shot on an offensive rebound last game. He certainly poses many problems for the Magic as they simply do not have anybody to guard him.
Some trends to consider. Magic are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 matchups vs. Pistons, and are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. Pistons are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Look for Detroit to dominate inside here, as they roll over the Magic covering the number.
Brad Diamond
Magic vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -7
If you're looking to win and cover at this time in the NBA, it's best to choose a unit that is driving for the playoffs and in need of a win. Hence, tonight we check-in with the Detroit Pistons (37-34). Orlando (29-41) comes in off a brutal 4 game run versus Charlotte, Cleveland, Toronto and Boston. And, now they play without Nikola Vucevic who most likely will not board this evening. This really helps the Pistons from the bench standpoint, especially in the 4th quarter. In the last meeting in Detroit, the Pistons crushed 115-89 (January). The current line -7 is the second highest number in the highly contested series going back to 2013. Detroit, though, is 22-12 SU @ home, while Orlando comes in 11-24 SU in road tests. From the technical standpoint, the Magic board with a 2-6 ATS record vs. Central Division, and 35-34 ATS this season. With Detroit 12-4-1 ATS vs. under .500 road units, 4-0 ATS here!
Brandon Lee
Jazz vs. Rockets
Play: Jazz +1.5
No surprise here that the betting public is all over the Rockets at basically a pick'em at home, but the books have set this line low for a reason. Houston is an awful scheduling spot tonight. The Rockets will be on no rest after playing last night in OKC, a game they played their hearts out in a 107-111 defeat. On top of that, this will be Houston's 4th game in the last 6 days. Utah on the other hand enters with a full two days of rest and are playing well at the moment. The Jazz have just won 94-85 at Milwaukee and have won 5 of their last 6 overall. Houston is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after playing in a game with a combined score of 205 or more points and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when playing on no rest.
Chip Chirimbes
Cal-Irvine vs. UL-Lafayette
Play: Cal-Irvine +2½
I question why LLU is such a same favorite when playing at home as they are 13-2 straight-up when playing as hosts against a team that had to travel over 2,500 miles to get here. UC-Irvine is an outstanding 11-4 on the road and have 26 wins this season. The Ragin' Cajuns have had their troubles scoring the ball as they are 166 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.9% while the Anteaters are a respectable 71st.
Ari Atari
Bucks vs. Cavaliers
Play: Bucks +11
The bottom line is that everyone knows the inconsistency issues of the Cavs. They face a back to back situation with the Nets on deck tomorrow. They'll play defense and do enough to win but the Bucks are getting plenty of points to keep this competitive. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.