Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Marc Lawrence

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

With major trades and recent injuries, we'll be the first to admit the Bobcats have been sporadic of late. But tonight's contest between these two desperate playoff pretenders puts a different spin on this showdown. For openers, Indiana has managed to cash in only five out of fifteen tries on the road in games off a win this season. Add to that Charlotte's 7-1 ATS mark in games off back-to-back losses n this series, including 5-0 at home, and you suddenly have the makings of a hungry homer. Look for the triple-revenging Bobcats to improve to 12-4 home on Wednesdays while the Pacers plummet to 1-10 away on Wednesdays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Charlotte.

Cajun Sports

Jazz vs. Thunder
Play: Over 202

Utah and Oklahoma City face off on Wednesday night in Oklahoma with both teams entering off straight up losses in their last game. Our focus is not on who will win this contest our interest is the total as the oddsmakers have set it at 201.5 at the time of this writing and our numbers say that is too low. Utah has gone 39-32 Over this season including 23-13 Over on the highway, 4-1 Over their last five and 9-4 Over versus division opponents. Utah is averaging 98.4 points per game on the road this season while the Thunder are averaging 107 points per game at home. We note that Oklahoma City is 32-5 Over where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. Utah is 8-1 Over as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Jazz are 15-5 Over when playing against a team winning sixty to seventy percent of their games during the second half of the season. Utah is 44-27 Over when playing their 3rd game in 4 days the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are 6-0 Over in this price range as an underdog coming off an ATS loss in their last game, if they are installed as a road underdog they are 5-0 Over. Oklahoma City is 29-18 Over as a favorite and 15-7 Over as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Thunder are 20-9 Over after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite this season. Oklahoma City Thunder coming off an ATS loss in their last game now facing a division opponent have gone Over at a rate of 117-84-2 ATS. This series has seen six of the last seven meetings go Over the posted total. Play this one Over on Wednesday night.

Scott Spreitzer

Golden St @ Houston
PICK: Over 216

When these two teams hook-up, we have been able to count on a lot of scoring. In fact, it's not unlike what we saw between the Suns & Lakers in L.A., heading into last night's high-scoring contest. Golden State and Houston have averaged 225.1 combined points per game in their last 10 meetings, including 235 ppg in this season's three tilts. In fact, the lowest point total between these two teams in their last seven meetings was 212 points. Golden State enters on a five game slide. The offense has sputtered a bit in their last three games, but they have still allowed a hefty amount of points, an average of 112.2 ppg during the five game skid. I expect the offense to bounce back into form tonight. After all, they're still 7th in the league in scoring and rank 2nd from the arc, making 39% of their attempts. Golden State has four players averaging between 16 and 24 ppg. And one thing we can almost always count on is poor defensive play from the Warriors, who rank 29th in the league in points allowed per game. The Rockets, averaging the third highest ppg mark in the league (105.5 ppg), must be champing at the bit to get after the Warriors again. Houston scored 110 points in a 2-point win over Utah last time out after beging held to 94 and 93 points in their previous two games. A lot of offense and very little resistance has been the theme when these two teams meet. I expect more of the same tonight. I'm playing the Over between the Warriors & Rockets on Wednesday.

Tom Stryker

Utah @ Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City -10

Oklahoma City has been on a pointspread roll in its series against Utah posting a 19-9 ATS record in the last 28 games including 12-3 ATS in this set checking in off a straight up loss and I'm going to ride the Thunder to victory lane on Wednesday night.

Currently on a dismal 9-22 SU and 10-21 ATS run, Utah isn't striking fear into any NBA opponent these days. The worst part of that team trend has occurred when the Jazz were dancing with opponents that hold a won/loss percentage greater than .520 - now a pitiful 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 games.

One thing OKC has done lately is found a way to bounce back off a blemish. In fact, off a straight up loss, the Thunder have posted a rewarding 39-17 SU and 38-17-1 ATS in their next contest including a powerful 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS if Oklahoma City was at home last.

On the road taking a step up in class battling an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .625, Utah has struggled something fierce lately notching a dismal 7-35 SU and 15-26-1 ATS mark including 3-14-1 ATS in this set if its foe owns three days of rest or more. The home versus road dichotomy in this pro battle is just too juicy to pass up. Take Oklahoma City.

BIG AL

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -6

It would be hard to believe the Hawks are not just looking forward to the Playoffs right now. Last night, they were blown out 114-81 by the Bulls, and that score indicates the team just wants to coast thru the rest of the regular season. Tonight's game won't be easy for Atlanta, regardless of how hard it competes. Doug Collins has done a masterful job with the 76ers after their 3-12 start, and Philly also has a scheduling advantage tonight since it had Tuesday off. And, after playing at home last night, the Hawks fall into a negative 4-27 ATS team situation. What we want to do is play against the Hawks on the road off a home game the night before, if it is priced from +3 to +12.5 points, and matched up against a foe off a straight up loss. In the last meeting between these clubs, Atlanta was drilled 117-83 at home. Nothing changes on the road tonight. Take the 76ers.

Steve Janus

1* Magic -1.5

The Knicks haven't looked good at all lately, and really looked bad in the second half of their last game against the Celtics, where they blew a 14-point half-time lead. The Knicks are just 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Orlando is 4-1 in their last five, and come in the much more rested team. This will be just the second game in the last five days for the Magic, while the Knicks will be playing their sixth game in the last nine days,and third in the last four.

Playing at Madison Square Garden tends to bring the best out of opposing players, and the Magic are 3-0 in their last three trips to MSG. Orlando is 65-44 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 10 points a game. The Knicks are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Bet Orlando!

Info Plays

3* Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

Reasons why Memphis will cover:

1) While the Celtics turned it on in their last game against the Knicks, you can't ignore how bad they looked in the first half. Boston isn't playing at the same level as they were earlier this season, and are just 4-4 in their last eight games.

2) While Memphis will struggle to win this game, they have been as good as anyone at covering the spread on the road this season, going 22-14. Their success ATS at Boston is unreal. They are 13-0 ATS at Boston since 1996.

3) The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season, and 0-9 ATS in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Jim Feist

Toronto Raptors vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Toronto Raptors +9

A tough situational spot for the home team, with Phoenix playing its 3rd game in 4 nights. It's also the second of a back to back spot after playing at the defending champion Lakers last night. Toronto has plenty of offense, averaging 99.3 ppg, and the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Toronto is on a 2-1 SU/ATS run and the are Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Play the Raptors!

EZWINNERS

Alabama Crimson Tide -5

The Miami Hurricanes used a big second half where they shot the lights out against Missouri State to advance to the next round, but I don't expect them to get past an Alabama team that has not lost at home all season. The Hurricanes have not been a very good road team this season and they tend to live and die by the three point shoot. Alabama is a very good defensive team and they were 43rd in the nation in three point field goal defense allowing their opponents to shoot just 31.9% from three point land. The Crimson Tide are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last sixteen home games and I look for that trend to continue as Alabama cashes their ticket to New York. Lay the points.

Craig Trapp

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks
Play: Orlando Magic -1.5

The Magic have owned the Knicks winning L5 games over L2 years, average winning margin was 11 points per game. Knicks have hit a wall and are having trouble scoring consistently. Defensively the Knicks don't even pretend to be able to play defense. Orlando rolls today and show why they are top 4 team in East. Easy winner here ORLANDO by 9

Tom Freese

Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Miami Heat -8

Detroit is 25-45 straight up this year. The Pistons are 4-11 ATS their 15 home games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pistons are 2-7 ATS their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pistons are 4-9 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. Miami is 48-22 straight up this year. The Heat are 39-19-1 ATS as road favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Heat are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 meetings in Detroit. The Heat are 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 meetings vs. the Pistons.

Matt Fargo

Miami @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit +9

Miami comes into this games in third place in the Eastern Conference and that is no doubt a disappointment. The Heat trail the Bulls by three games for first place and the Celtics by two and a half games for second place so there is still time to make a move. Defeating the bad team this season has not been a problem but because of the inflated lines, the Heat have not been profitable as they are 18-18 ATS against teams with a losing record and 19-24 ATS as a favorite of six points or more this season.

The Pistons are coming off a road loss in Atlanta on Sunday and we cashed a ticket going against them in that game but they have been a much better team at home. They are a game over .500 in Detroit and they have actually performed better against the number as a home underdog as opposed to being a home favorite going 12-10 ATS when getting points compared to 6-6 ATS when laying points. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games while winning five of its last seven outright.

Miami has won all three meetings this season against the Pistons, covering two of those including the most recent meeting in Detroit where it won by 14 points. The Heat pulled ahead by 25 points in that contest and the Pistons never led which sets up a good revenge situation in the final meeting of the season. Detroit is 21-10 ATS this season after a game where it failed to cover the spread while going 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game.

Miami is 10-21 ATS this season following five straight games as a favorite and the Pistons falls into a great contrarian situation. Play on underdogs that are allowing opponents to shoot 48 percent or more on the season going up against opponents that have shot 50 percent or better in two straight games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1996. The Heat have been off since Saturday and they are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 3 or more days rest. 3* Detroit Pistons

Tony George

Miami Florida vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -5

Won with Alabama as a premium on Monday and although the score indicated a 7 point win, it was not that close as the Tide dropped their guard and let their opponent go on a 14-4 run at the end of the game, they DOMINATED that game. Alabama is a good team gents, especially at home they are unbeatable, and they have depth and a solid frontcourt. Their defense is what is carrying them allowing 59 ppg their last 5 games against some very tough teams, dating back to SEC conference play. Alabama is 18-0 SU at home this season, and UNREAL record and avery hostile place to play for any opponent.

They also are 11-2-1 ATS in lined games there and Miami, while they have shown some moments of good play this season, are 4-8 on the road and off a home win against a decent Mo Valley team on Monday face the fire tonight. Alabama laying the same number they opened with against New Mexico on Monday which shot up to -6.5 by tip off. Perhaps a closer game overall, but I do not expect the Tide to let down their guard like they did against New Mexico late in the game. Alabama ranked 8th in the nation on defense and 4th in the nation in FG% allowed, and defense wins big games.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

The Grizzlies have plenty to play for as they try to hold on to the final playoff spot in the West. That should be more than enough motivation for them to take Boston down to the wire this evening. Since 1997, Boston is 7-6 SU at home against the Grizzlies but 0-13 ATS in those games. It is also worth noting that Boston is 0-9 ATS in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Memphis has been extremely dangerous in the underdog role. The Grizzlies are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Memphis lost the season's first meeting at home by 6 points clear back in November, but this actually bodes well for us because the Grizzlies are 24-12 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. The Grizzlies are actually winning by an average score of 101.9 to 99.9 in this situation. Take the points.