Jack Jones
Alabama Crimson Tide -5
The Alabama Crimson Tide simply cannot lose at home this season. With a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line tonight against Miami, I fully expect the Tide to roll to another blowout home victory. Alabama is 18-0 SU & 12-2 ATS in home games this season, outscoring their opponents by a ridiculous 18.2 PPG.
The Tide were one of the biggest NCAA Tournament snubs, and they are playing motivated basketball because of it. Alabama is 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. The Tide are 10-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. Alabama is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Bet Alabama Wednesday.
Ross Benjamin
Toronto @ Phoenix
Play: Under 210.5
Both of these teams have gone under the total in 6 of their last 7 games. Don't get carried away with the Suns final score last night losing 139-137 to the Lakers! That contest went 3 overtimes so there is a bit of deception in the end result. Toronto was pitiful on the defensive end in their last contest at Denver. However they were playing with no rest. The night before they showed very good focus on the defensive end in an upset win at Oklahoma City. I look for the Raptors to show a similar focus tonight. Play on this contest to go under the total as my free selection of the night.
SEAN MURPHY
Toronto @ Phoenix
PICK: Phoenix -7
This line has been driven down two full points since opening at -9, due in large part to the Suns triple-overtime loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles last night.
Most are expecting the weary Suns to struggle to create any sort of margin against the Raptors, but I see this one playing out much differently.
Toronto opened its current road trip with an impressive win at Oklahoma City, but couldn't build on that positive momentum, dropping an ugly 123-90 decision in Denver the next night. Now we find the Raptors playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Toronto hasn't had any recent success against Phoenix, and I don't expect that to change tonight.
The Suns are actually playing some of their best basketball right now, having gone 4-0-1 ATS over their last five games. Steve Nash has led the charge, pouring in 59 points while adding 43 assists and 18 rebounds over the last three games. He's made good on 11-of-14 three-point attempts over that stretch.
Getting Channing Frye back in the lineup has also been huge. Frye scored 32 points and added 14 rebounds in last night's losing effort. He's seen his scoring production increase in each of his three games since returning from injury.
This is the start of an important three-game homestand for the Suns, as they currently sit three games back of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The team they're chasing, the Memphis Grizzlies will be in tough against the Celtics on Wednesday, so the Suns have to see this as an opportunity to gain ground.
Phoenix was pushed to the limit last night at Staples Center, but this isn't a depth-shy team with no fewer than five regular contributors off the bench. It's the Suns bench that should shine on Wednesday, and help earn a decisive win over a Raptors team that has been simply atrocious on the road this season (6-28 SU, 14-18-2 ATS). Take Phoenix.
BEN BURNS
Indiana @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte -1.5
We're getting very line value on Charlotte, due in large part to the questionable status of Steven Jackson. However, if Jackson's comments are any indication, he should be available tonight, even if at less than 100%.
Knowing the importance of tonight's game, the Bobcats' leading scorer was quoted as saying: "One hundred percent I’m playing. No question."
The fact that the Bobcats haven't played since 3/19, figures to help Jackson's cause. Note that they're 3-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing with three day's rest in between games.
True, the Pacers are off a road win. They're still 2-7 their last nine away games though. For the season, they're an ugly 12-25 away from Indianapolis.
While they did lose by three points here back in October, the Bobcats (who also lost both at Indiana) are still 4-2 the last six times that they were a host in the series.
The Bobcats beat Portland their last game here and are 4-2 SU/ATS their last six home games. With or without Jackson, playing with "triple revenge," I expect them to "find a way" to get it done tonight. Consider Charlotte.
LARRY NESS
Miami (FL) @ Alabama
PICK: Alabama -5
Alabama has won twice at home, extending its home mark this season to a school-record 18-0 in Coleman Coliseum. The Crimson Tide is one win away from the school’s sixth Final Four appearance in the NIT, a tourney it has never won (lost in the 2001 championship game to Tulsa). Likewise, Miami-Fla has won consecutive home games over FAU and Missouri St and is also one win away from an NIT Final Four appearance, which would be the school’s first in this, its 10th NIT. The winner of tonight's game will take on Colorado next Tuesday (bad draw). Anyway, first things first. Alabama didn’t have an easy time of it against New Mexico on Monday but the seven-point win gives the Tide an 18-0 SU mark (12-2 ATS) at home, where they have outscored opponents 70.6-to-52.4 PPG. The team’s frontcourt was in foul trouble most of the night with the 6-8 Green (15.5-7.8) and the 6-6 Mitchell (15.5-6.9) winding up with four fouls plus the 6-8 Hines (5.5-6.1) fouling out. The backcourt of Releford (10.7-3.4-3.4), Davis (8.6) and Hillman (6.4) has played well in the first two games of this tourney, as has Releford averaged 16.0-4.5-4.5, Davis 13.0 PPG and Hillman 8.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG. It’s Alabama's ‘D’ which has carried it all season, as the Tide allow 59.0 PPG on just 38.2% shooting while forcing 15.5 turnovers per contest as well. Miami has depth on the perimeter with starters Grant (15.-3.3 APG), Scott (13.5-4.3-3.1) and Brown (4.4) joined by Adams (7.4-3.7) and Jones (4.3). However, the ‘Canes hardly own much of an edge (if any) vs Alabama's trio. Up front, the 6-10 Johnson (11.9-9.7) is the biggest inside presence in this game but his only real help comes from the 6-7 Thomas (9.4-3.8). Expect Green (just six points and seven rebounds vs New Mexico) to bounce back with a big game here. It’s hard to go against Alabama here at home but Miami has a knack of playing close games, as during the ACC’s regular season, 10 of its 16 games were decided by six points or less. Then, in the ACC tourney, Miami edged Virginia in OT before losing to North Carolina by just two points. I’m still playing Alabama but for just a small play.
Sam Martin
Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers
Big number for the Clippers to cover here tonight, but for good reason as the Wizards continue their awful run on the road and they are now just 1-32 straight up in their 33 away contests this season. And they're not much better at the betting window in these games, cashing just nine times in those 33 chances. The Clippers are an underrated home team, and Washington doesn't have the offensive firepower or confidence to keep up with the 100 ppg LA scores at home. Lay the big number with confidence! 5* Play on LA Clippers.
Lenny Del Genio
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
We'd like to go a bit stronger here, but the Hawks are coming off a 33-point loss to Chicago last night. Then again, THEY DID LOSE BY 33 AT HOME! At one point, they trailed the Bulls by nearly 50 points. Somebody just put this Hawks team out of its misery already and break this group up as its clear it will never evolve into a championship contender. Philadelphia may not ever play in an NBA Finals either, but the Sixers continue to be a big money maker with a league best 43-26 ATS mark and they are 23-9 ATS off a SU loss. They've enjoyed three days off to recover from a loss in Portland and considering they beat Atlanta by 33 the last time these teams met, they should have no problem tonight. The Hawks are 6-18 ATS playing with revenge for an outright loss as a home favorite. Take Philadelphia.
Hollywood Sports
Central Florida at Creighton
Prediction: Creighton
Creighton (21-14) has been dominant on their home court this season where they are 17-3 with an average winning margin of +8.0 PPG and where they limit their opponents to under a 43% shooting percentage. They have covered 5 straight games as a favorite on their home court. And they have covered 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Central Florida (21-11) struggles away from home where they are just 4-6 while shooting just 42% from the field. They have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog of under seven points. The Knights were only 6-11 in a suspect Conference USA. The Missouri Valley was more challenging and the Blue Jays were a more respectable 11-9 in conference play. It is telling that Central Florida was only 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Lay the points with Creighton.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami (FL) at Alabama
Two traditional College Football powers meet tonight on the hardwood in the NIT Quarterfinals and we look for the favored Crimson Tide to "roll" indeed. They, like the Hurricanes, have easily won their first two NIT games, but tonight the home court will prove to be the advantage as Bama is a huge money maker in Tuscaloosa this season, going 12-2 against the spread.
Play on: Alabama
Wunderdog Sports
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -5
Many thought the Denver Nuggets took the short end of the stick when they dealt Melo to the Knicks, but they may have had the last laugh in the end. Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari are all averaging 10+ since coming over and are scoring more than Melo, making them more difficult to defend. The Nuggets are 11-5 over their last 16 games and 6-0 at home with the newly structured roster. San Antonio is just 5-10 ATS in their last 15, the price to pay for having the best record in the NBA, and just 1-4 ATS on the road in their last five vs teams over .600, who are now gunning for them. The Nuggets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 at home vs a team with a winning road record. I am on Denver here.
Info Plays
3* Memphis Grizzlies +6.5
Reasons why Memphis will cover:
1) While the Celtics turned it on in their last game against the Knicks, you can't ignore how bad they looked in the first half. Boston isn't playing at the same level as they were earlier this season, and are just 4-4 in their last eight games.
2) While Memphis will struggle to win this game, they have been as good as anyone at covering the spread on the road this season, going 22-14. Their success ATS at Boston is unreal. They are 13-0 ATS at Boston since 1996.
3) The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season, and 0-9 ATS in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Creighton -4
I'm taking Creighton in the CBI Semifinals tonight over UCF. The Bluejays have been rolling and should continue their run tonight. Creighton has the advantage of playing on their home court where they recorded an impressive 17-3 record this season. They've also won and covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, including dominating performances over San Jose State and Davidson in previous rounds of the CBI. Bet the Bluejays.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Miami Heat -8
The Heat have dominated in this series, going 8-2 SU and ATS against the Pistons over the last three seasons and a perfect 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) in their last five games at Detroit. The Pistons have dropped 4 of their last 6 games and nothing with this team tells me they are ready to reverse their trend of losing to Miami tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Charlotte Bobcats -1.5
This is really a game that the Charlotte Bobcats will be up for tonight. The Pacers (31-40), in eighth place in the East, defeated New Jersey 102-98 on Monday to move two games ahead of Charlotte (28-41) and Milwaukee. Stephen Jackson is expected to return to the line-up tonight for Charlotte to give them a boost. "One hundred percent I'm playing," Jackson, who had 27 points in a 104-103 loss at Indiana on Feb. 9, told the Bobcats' official website. "No question." The Bobcats feel the same way, especially their coach. "It's probably the most important game of the season. We have to have that game," Charlotte coach Paul Silas said. "If we get it, then it gives us a good chance. If we don't get it, it's going to be tough." Indiana has won the first three meetings this season, but all were close and decided by a total of 12 points. It's hard to beat a team four times in the same season, which is what the Pacers are faced with. Charlotte is 17-16 at home this season while Indiana is 12-25 on the road. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Bobcats are 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Take Charlotte and lay the points.
O.C. Dooley
Bobcats -1.5
Even though Charlotte is the home favorite I am calling this an upset pick because Indiana has beaten them five consecutive times in this series including a 3-0 mark this campaign. To make a long story short Charlotte has been in a free-fall ever since trading veteran Gerald Wallace who was the defensive leader and veteran presence that held the squad together for multiple campaigns. At the trade deadline the Bobcats imported veteran guard Stephen Jackson but he has been battling a sore hamstring and is listed as questionable for tonight. One of the reasons why I am willing to take a risk with Charlotte is that their most recent clash with Indiana was decided by a slim ONE point margin, making this a special revenge wager. In addition both teams involved are operating with interim head coaches (Frank Vogel, Paul Silas) who replaced leaders that earlier received the dreaded pink slip. The following may come as a shock but for this entire season to date Charlotte has gone a most positive 3-1 ATS when cast as a small favorite of 3-or-less points. Obviously it does not happen often but the Bobcats are in a decent percentage situation this evening against a rival opponent who is battling them for an Eastern Conference playoff berth