JR Tips
Grizzlies at Warriors
The Memphis Grizzlies need victories to overcome a big gap in the Western Conference playoff race and they continue a three-game road trip tonight trying to earn their second victory in five days over the Warriors. Memphis has posted consecutive double-digit wins starting with a 123-107 home victory over Golden State on Saturday night and then 102-85 over the Kings Monday night to start there trip. Open this trip. The Grizzlies have beaten the Warriors winning five of the past six meetings winning by a combined 29 points in the past two matchups. Rudy Gay led the Grizzlies with 25 points Saturday, and Zach Randolph recorded his seventh straight double-double. Gay has scored 23.3 points per game this season against the Warriors with Randolph averaging 23.0.Injuries have plagued the Warriors for much of this season as Monta Ellis leads the team with 25.8 points per game and 31.3 over the last four after 30 points in a 133-131 home loss to Phoenix on Monday night. The Grizzlies are playing great basketball and has had nothing but success against Golden State although the Warriors will compete at home and you must score points to beat them there.
Take Over 235.5
James Patrick Sports
Nuggets vs. Celtics
Boston lost the first game at the Pepsi Center in the Mile High City and they catch the Nuggets after they played in the Big Apple against the Knicks last night. Denver is (4-12) ATS on the road in the second of back-to-backs and Big Game James selection in Wednesday NBA action is Boston Celtics.
Nelly
Minnesota + over Charlotte
Minnesota certainly has its share of problems but the Wolves look like a solid play Wednesday night catching double-digit points in Charlotte. The Bobcats set a franchise record for wins last night with an OT win in Washington and that game was the fifth road game in nine days for the Bobcats. Charlotte is back at home tonight but two of the last three games have gone to OT and Charlotte has not won any of the past seven games by double-digits. Minnesota suffered a couple of blowouts on a recent west coast trip but losing badly to Phoenix and Utah can be justified. The main issues for the Wolves are on defense and Charlotte is not an offensive power that will be able to take advantage. In the last two games the Wolves played respectably close with Toronto and the Lakers and Minnesota lost by just one in the last meetings between these teams, just six weeks ago. For all the issues that Minnesota has, statistically they are a better shooting and rebounding team than Charlotte is and this is also a deeper squad, more likely to be able to handle the scheduling stretches both teams have endured, particularly with all the OT and road games Charlotte has faced recently. Charlotte is 0-2 this season as a double-digit favorite and this looks like solid value on Minnesota given the situation for the Bobcats.
Tom Stryker
ATLANTA (-) over Orlando
The Hawks only have 12 games left in the regular season and they need to get to work if they want to beat out Boston for the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Atlanta knows it won't be easy tonight against an Orlando team that has owned them lately. The Magic have won six straight in this series including their last three by an average of 22.3 points per game.
Fortunately for the Hawks, they have played very well at home against some of the NBA's best. In fact, in their own backyard matched up against a foe that owns a won/loss percentage of .630 or better, Atlanta is a powerful 23-8-2 ATS provided its opponent checks in with momentum off a SU and ATS win.
This is a statement game for Hotlanta and the Hawks needs to let the Magic know they can beat them. Take Atlanta.
DUNKEL
Sacramento at New Jersey
The Kings look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Sacramento is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2)
Game 751-752: Minnesota at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 108.930; Charlotte 119.051
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 10; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 10 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+10 1/2); Under
Game 753-754: Utah at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 122.564; Toronto 114.585
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-3); Under
Game 755-756: Denver at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 123.204; Boston 123.220
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5; 206
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+5); Under
Game 757-758: Orlando at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.419; Atlanta 124.361
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 196
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+1); Under
Game 759-760: Washington at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.180; Indiana 119.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6); Over
Game 761-762: Sacramento at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.632; New Jersey 112.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2); Under
Game 763-764: Houston at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.873; Oklahoma City 121.138
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 206
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Over
Game 765-766: Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 112.263; Milwaukee 124.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 12 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 767-768: Cleveland at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.932; New Orleans 115.058
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 202
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6); Under
Game 769-770: LA Lakers at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 120.632; San Antonio 126.380
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 196
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1); Over
Game 771-772: Memphis at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 119.543; Golden State 115.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4; 233
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 235 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1); Under
NCAAB
Rhode Island at Virginia Tech
The Hokies look to take advantage of a Rhode Island team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Virginia Tech is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-6)
Game 773-774: Rhode Island at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 62.750; Virginia Tech 71.949
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 9
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 6
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-6)
Game 775-776: Dayton at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 67.323; Illinois 71.024
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 4
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+4)
Game 781-782: Boston U at VCU
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 61.452; VCU 67.084
Dunkel Line: VCU by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston U (+11 1/2)
Game 783-784: Princeton at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 59.455; St. Louis 64.615
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-4)
Game 785-786: Pacific at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 57.851; Appalachian State 63.027
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 5
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-3)
Game 787-788: Creighton at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 60.676; Missouri State 63.058
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (+6)
NHL
Montreal at Buffalo
The Canadiens look to bounce back from their 2-0 loss to Ottawa and build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Montreal is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+145)
Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.398; Washington 13.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 3-4: NY Islanders at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.631; NY Rangers 11.755
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under
Game 5-6: Montreal at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.981; Buffalo 10.224
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+145); Under
Game 7-8: St. Louis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.815; Detroit 13.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under
Game 9-10: Los Angeles at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.136; Colorado 12.175
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Over
Game 11-12: Anaheim at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.672; Vancouver 12.321
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Stan Lisowski
MEMPHIS
The Grizzlies are still in the playoff hunt for a postseason spot. They face a Warrior club that has been decimated with injuries this year. Golden State is on a 2-8 outright run their last 10 games while they have dropped 5 of the last 6 meetings. Memphis is a profitable 6-2 ATS when they have been made a road favorite.
King Creole
NOH +6 vs CLE
This is a series in which the HOSTS usually bring home the bacon. When the Cavs take on the Hornets, the home team has gone 6-1 ATS since the 2006 season.... and 15 out of the last 19 meetings. Put Cleveland on the road... laying points... against a NON-conference opponent off a BIG win... and we've found one of their (rare) achilles heels. The CAVS are 1-9 ATS in the last 18 years as non-conference road favorites versus any opponent off a DD SU win. Meanwhile, the HORNETS were bolstered by the return of Chris Paul in their last game... and they beat up on the Dallas Mavericks as sizable home dogs. And we'll be riding New Orleans in what has been a very profitable situation tonight. The HORNETS are 17-5 ATS in the last 5 years as non-conference home UNDERDOGS, and that includes a PERFECT 5-0 ATS already THIS season!
Let's look at tonight's rest situation....
16-5-1 ATS this season: All NBA home dogs in a '1/2' REST situation (HORNETS). These teams have gone 8-1 ATS vs any opponent playing off a SU win (like the Cavs).
That big home DOG win in their last game puts New Orleans in VERY profitable company...
9-1 ATS since January: All NBA home teams playing off a SU home UNDERDOG win (HORNETS).
6-0 ATS this season: All NBA home underdogs of +4 or greater points playing off a SU division win (HORNETS).
Cleveland played Detroit in their last game, and came away with a 104 to 79 victory...
2-8 ATS this season: All NBA road teams playing off a DD SU win in which they held their opponent to LESS than (<) 80 points (Cavs). These teams have gone 1-5 ATS vs any foe off a DD SU win (like the HORNETS).
John Ryan
Sacramento Kings at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
This is one of the last true chances for the nets to get a win and at least tie the 9-73ers of Philadelphia. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that New jersey will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 100-111 against the money and has made a whopping 46.8 units since 1996. Play on home teams versus the money line after 7 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. The average play for this ML system has been a +158 dog. So, by analogy, this like playing Black Jack and getting paid $1.58 for every $1.00 played. That will never happen in any casino, but this system makes that a very real phenomenon. In what are epxected to be tight games, the Kings have not fared well. They are just 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 this season. This is the Nets play-off game and they will come out firing with everything they have as no amateur nor professional wants their name associated with one of the most humiliating records in all of sports. Take the Nets.
Lee Kostroski
Utah @ Toronto Raptors
PICK: Utah -3
At first glance you might think laying 3 to 4 points in this game is too many considering both are playoff teams but a second look tells us this number is not out of line. The Jazz are a legitimate contender in the West and the Raptors are just trying to hold on in the East. I just played on the Raptors the other night and got a win over a Minnesota team that has called it quits this season. Toronto barely held on to win by 6 points and cover after surviving a late charge by the Wolves. I was a little concerned about the Raptors team chemistry which is a bigger problem than it seemed at the time.
If there's an issue of cohesion, it's going to make difficult games even harder, making it more important that everyone feels included.
"Sometimes you can be a little lackadaisical when you're over in the corner and you're not involved in the offence. You're not going to the offensive glass," Antoine Wright said. "It's all points in a game where you want to get guys involved to keep them in the flow of the game. You don't want a guy not involved in the offence, because it helps their defense." You get the picture.
The Raptors are last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.098 points per possession. Conversely Utah is 5th in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.080 ppp. In other words, Utah is very efficient at scoring and does a lot of it while Toronto is like a sieve and allows everyone easy looks.
Utah's right in the thick of a tough battle for spots 2-5 in the Western Conference playoff race and won't look past the Raptors. The Jazz have won 9 straight in this series dating back to 2005. Utah is 8-3 SU their last 11 games with the three losses coming to playoff bound teams in Phoenix, Milwaukee and Oklahoma City. Toronto is just 3-7 SU their last 10 games with three losses to pathetic Golden State, Sacramento and Philly who have a combined 67-145 SU record this season. The Jazz have a 22-12 ATS record vs. .500+ teams this season, Raptors are 11-17 ATS. In their last five games the Jazz have a scoring differential of a positive +14 ppg, Toronto has a negative differential of -4 ppg. This looks like a blowout!
Larry Ness
Sacramento @ New Jersey
PICK: New Jersey +1.5
The storyline is well known. Time is running out for the 7-63 Nets, who have just 12 games remaining and still need three wins to surpass the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers, who went 9-73 for the worst record in NBA history. The bad news is that New Jersey is on a franchise-record 14-game losing streak at home (just 3-31 at home on the year) but the good news is that the Kings are visiting without star rookie PG Evans (20.2-5.2-5.6) and the Kings are a rather sad 7-28 on the road this season. Of course, the Kings still own more talent than the Nets but one has to believe the Nets "have this game circled." New Jersey is the lowest-scoring team in the league (91.0 PPG) but the numbers reveal that the Kings allow 104.7 PPG away from home this year. Not much analysis with this pick, other than I'm giving the Nets a shot in a game which represents one of their best "win opportunities" from now until season's end. Fingers are crossed, though.
Steve Merril
L.A. Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: Over 197
The Lakers’ offense comes into tonight in terrific current form. Los Angeles is averaging 107 points per game on 49.4% shooting over their last five games. The Lakers only scored 99 points in their last game, but that was because they put it on cruise control in the fourth quarter (scored just 17 points) as they led the Wizards by 22 points after three quarters of play.
San Antonio’s offense is also on fire right now as the Spurs are averaging 106 points per game on a whopping 49.8% shooting over their last five ballgames. The Spurs have scored 118 and 147 points their last two home games, and since they scored 105 points on the Lakers in their last trip to San Antonio, we expect some more hot shooting from the Spurs tonight
Los Angeles’ game plan tonight will also be focused on the offensive end of the floor because they are facing the new-look Spurs. "I think we've definitely got to come out and be aggressive. It just can't be one of the games where we go out and try to feel them out," guard Shannon Brown said. "We've got to be aggressive and try to make them make adjustments."
San Antonio’s off-season moves were made with the sole intent of matching the Lakers on offense. The Spurs have been repeatedly bounced in the post-season by the Lakers because they simply could not score enough points to beat them. And the Spurs signed offensive minded players like Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess in order to trade points with the Lakers. Tonight is their chance to prove once again that they’ve got the offense to match the Lakers, and that factor alone makes this a high-scoring game.
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Under 5.5
These teams played two night ago, at LA. That game finished above the total, with a final score of 4-3. That one easily could have been lower-scoring though. For starters, neither team had many shots on goal. LA finished with 23. Colorado had 21.
Additionally, the score was 2-1 into the third period. In fact, with a score of 3-2, it was still 'under' the total of 5.5, until there were just 10 seconds left in the third period. That's when the Avalanche scored the tying goal, which forced overtime.
Note that this season's previous meeting between these teams didn't feature too many shots (23-22) either. LA won that one by a score of 3-0.
Prior to Monday's game, the Kings had seen five straight games stay below the total. Those games had scores of 3-2, 2-1, 3-2, 3-0 and 1-0. Including the first two of those games, which both came on the road, the Kings have seen the 'under' go a profitable 53-37 the last 90 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, including 17-12 this season.
The Avs have seen the 'under' go 43-30-3 the last few seasons, when coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. During the same stretch, even including Monday's result, they've also seen the 'under' go a profitable 54-32-7 when facing a team with a winning record. Consider the Under 5.5.
Vic Duke
Princeton vs. Saint Louis
Play: Over 106
Both of these teams are defensively strong but we find value with the "over" based on the low "total" line. From an opening at 109, it was bid down to 105 in some places. Sure, Princeton sports the #1 defense in the NCAA in terms of allowing points at 53 ppg; however, Majerus runs the Bilikens' offense efficiently and he has some scorers in Reed, Ellis, and Mitchell that are rarely contained at Chaifetz Arena. On the other hand, Princeton is road savvy and has been productive offensively throughout the CBI shooting 48% from the field; moreover, the Tigers have out shot opponents from the field in their last 7 games. Technically, St. Louis is 9-1 O/U as a home favorite in this spread range. We'll go "over" here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Dayton/Illinois UNDER 131
Right away I like the fact that Illinois is on a 27-12 UNDER run in home games where the total is 130 to 139.5. Also, Illinois is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with one or less days rest under coach Weber. This tells me that coach Weber is very good at getting his team prepared defensively without much time to work with. The UNDER is also 4-1 in the Fighting Illini's last 5 games as a home favorite and 7-1 in the Flyers' last 8 non-conference games. Both teams are solid defensively, and both teams play primarily in the half court with a heavy reliance on the jumpshot. All these things play in our favor in terms on the Under here tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks -1
You'll rarely find the Hawks as a slim home favorite like they are tonight, and we'll gladly take the value here. Atlanta is 28-7 SU & 21-14 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 8.3 points/game. After losing six straight games to Orlando, the Hawks will be highly motivated tonight to end this streak and get some serious revenge in a place where they have lost just seven times all season. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points this season. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Atlanta and lay the points.