Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 27

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail BlazersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Portland Trail BlazersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blazers return home off a 20-point whipping at Oklahoma City on Sunday to host the Nets with Portland looking to avenge a 13-point setback suffered at Brooklyn earlier this season. That sets the table for tonight's play as the Trailblazers are 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS the last nineteen games in this series, including 5-1 SUATS when seeking revenge. With the Nets looking ahead to a Friday night engagement at Denver, and just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in games before the Nuggets, we'll stay at home in the Rose Garden here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Portland.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oral Roberts +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You should always play on a road team like Oral Roberts when thy are playing on a single day of rest and revenging a home loss against an opponent. This system is 381-273 (58.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The last game between these teams was decided by four points in favor of Weber State. Oral Roberts shot 52.5% from the field against the Wildcats so they obviously know how to handle their defense. The Golden Eagles had only 23 rebounds in that game which is unlikely to occur again considering they have had over 40 rebounds per game in three of their last four games.
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Weber State has played a soft schedule which has inflated this line to be much larger than it should be. Oral Roberts has an advantage from the free throw line shooting 74.5% and they are a good ball control team averaging only 14 turnovers per game. This is a very smart Golden Eagles team that always stays out of foul trouble. They average only 16 personal fouls per game so Weber State will not get a chance to see the double bonus. Oral Roberts should have no problem keeping this game closer than the +9 points we are getting.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phoenix vs. UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Under: 194½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah hasn't played much defense all season, but they are now with a playoff spot on the line, riding a 5-3 run under the total. They are off a win over Philly allowing 91 points. The under is 11-4 in the Jazz's last 15 games playing on one days rest and 5-1 under in their last 6 home games. Phoenix is shaky on offense, 22nd in points scored, and the under is 19-7 in Suns last 26 games playing on two days rest. When these teams meet the under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, including 5-1 under in the last 6 meetings in Utah. Play the Suns/Jazz under the total.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Providence vs BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ProvidenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Friars won seven of their last nine BIG EAST games to post a 7-2 record (.778).The key to the team's success in those seven wins was its play on the defensive end. The team held opponents to an average of just 59.9 points per game in those seven victories.The Friars fi nished the month of February with a 5-1 recrd (.833). The team registered home wins over No. 17 Cincinnati (54-50) and No. 21 Notre Dame (71-54) and road victories against Villanova (55-52), USF (76-66) and Rutgers (76-72), so they are not to be underestimated.Baylor is talented but very inconsistent, and has a tendency of showing up half a asleep for some opponents.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BucksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Sixers fit a negative system here that plays against home favorites of 4 or less with 1 day of rest that scored 90 or more as a road dog of 5 or more in their last game, while shooting 45% or less from the field, if they are taking on an opponent like the Bucks here that were home favorites of 4 or less in their last game. These short home favorites are 3-8 straight up and have failed to cover 9 of 11 times. The Sixers are 2-7 off 3+ road games, 2-8 ats as a home favorite of 3 or less and have lost 10 of 13 vs Central Division teams. The Bucks are 5-2 off 3+ losses and have covered 5 of 7 on the road when the total is 195 to 200. Milwaukee has had Philadelphia's number this season winning all 3 meetings. Look for them to bring out the broom and get the sweep tonight.

Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Boston CelticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Realize the Celtics are in injury mode of late, but can’t help going against the pathetic Cavs who have lost 5 straight. Cleveland too, has been suffering with injuries killing the defense in switching situations? Seems they are becoming over run with fatigue to add to their growing problems in the current 22-47 SU season. The Cavs have allowed at least 111 points in their L3 times out. The home team has covered 5 straight in the series, but Boston should field enough fire power to eclipse the current number.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan vs George Mason
Pick: Western MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here's a game that really displays what, at least for me, is one the major differences in the handicapping approach during the regular season as opposed to the post-season tournaments. In regular season play, this would be a very nasty scheduling spot for Western Michigan. The Broncos just won in OT on Monday at Wyoming. Now they're making a lengthy trip east to visit George Mason, a team that won at home on Monday night. There would be little way to build a case for the visiting Broncos with this scenario involved in what would basically be just another regular season game.
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But this is tournament play, and that's a unique situation that requires a different approach. I am not particularly worried about fatigue getting the best of the Broncos tonight. It's certainly possible, but not probable in my estimation. Every WMU player knows that a loss here ends the season, and that sense of urgency is going to get the juices flowing. Also, when you're this age, energy has few limitations.
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Nevertheless, I can pretty much guarantee you that the majority of the analysis found on this game will focus on the big advantage George Mason is enjoying because of the scheduling. Make no mistake, those guys setting the lines are well aware of the situation as well and they've accordingly adjusted for it in the number. The situation is obvious and the oddsmakers are not stupid.
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As for the matchup between WMU and GM itself, I have it virtually dead even. Mason is a little better on offense, WMU gets the edge on defense. George Mason is not a dominant team at home and I don't see anything to suggest things will suddenly change tonight. Public money will absolutely be on the Colonials tonight. I'll go the other way and will look to get the job done with Western Michigan plus the points.

Andy IskoeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Prior to the announcement of the field for the NCAA Tournament I mentioned on the First Priview radio show I've been doing on Friday nights the past few weeks that I thought Providence would win the NIT. That was largely based on PC playing at home. Once the NIT matchups came out this was the one potential game I feld would derail Providence's chances -- playing at Baylor. Providence is clearly a team that showed steady improvement over the course of the season and may well be a player in the reconstituted Big East next season. But Baylor remains a formidable team that played very well at home this season over the second half of the season. After losing conference games at home to Texas and lowly TCU in early January, Baylor went what appears to be a modest 4-3 SU over the balance of their Big 12 home schedule. But those 3 losses were against a trio of NCAA Tournament teams -- Iowa State, Oklahoma and Kansas State -- and were by 3, 3 and 5 points. They also have double digit wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas (also NCAA Tournament teams) and have a total of 12 double digit wins at home this season (including over BYU and Long Beach State). Baylor appears to have shown interest after being snubbed for an NCAA bid and a win here gets the Bears to the NIT semi finals in New York. Providence should be competitive into the second half but will ultimately fall victim to a very physical and athletically gifted team of Baylor Bears. My projection calls for Baylor wo win by from 12 to 17 points.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. CalgaryFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CalgaryFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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How's this for a trend: the home team has been the winner in Calgary's last sixteen games! So, tonight it's advantage Flames, who host Colorado at the Scotiabank Saddledome. Thankfully for Calgary, there is such a thing as home-ice edge at the Saddledome, because they've lost ten straight on the road. Better yet for the Flames is the fact the visiting Avs are mirror-images, losing almost every one of their games on the road (0-6-3 last nine). Expect some production from Flames winger Curtis Glencross, who has gone back-to-back games without a point after amassing eight in five contests. Mostly, however, we're simply going to play the well-defined home trend in Calgary games and simply go against Colorado on the road...angles that have paid off handsomely in recent weeks.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phoenix vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year: the Coyotes won 2-1 at home on February 4th, before Minnesota won 4-3 in Phoenix on February 28th. Because of the situation that each finds itself coming into this contest, I'm expecting a similar combined score as what we saw in their first matchup this evening. Phoenix is 13-15-4 overall, including just 3-8-3 on the road. The O/U is 15-14-3 overall, and 5-7-2 away from friendly confines. Phoenix has lost six straight, and is coming off a 3-2 home loss to Detroit on Monday. Minnesota is 19-10-2, including 11-3-1 at home. The O/U is 12-16-3 overall, including 5-8-2 in front of the home town crowd. The Wild have won six straight, including a 7-4 victory at Dallas on Monday. As with most "totals" selections, this is a situational play. The Coyotes need to put the pressure on the Wild on both ends of the ice to break out of their slide, and that means a lot of forechecking, and risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes. For the Wild, they need to maintain focus, control the tempo of this game, and to not get caught looking ahead to their back to back set at Dallas and vs. LA on Fri/Sat respectively. When I add it all up, all the factors point to a low-scoring affair.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver at San AntonioFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Antonio -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver finally saw their impressive 15-game winning streak come to a screeching halt vs. New Orleans who beat them by 24. We often see teams that go on long winning streaks play so hard to keep the streak alive that they fall apart in the game after it is broken, almost as if they catch their breath. San Antonio is aware that the Nuggets have played well and will be ready as usual. The Spurs have dispatched poor road teams to a 35-14-3 ATS mark in their last 52. Give this aging team two days off and they come back with added vigor as they are 13-3 ATS on two days of rest. This is a tough emotional spot for the Nuggets, while the Spurs are king at home. Play the points and play on San Antonio.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland CavaliersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Boston CelticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Good teams step up this time of year and I expect Boston to do that on Wednesday. The Celtics got waxed at home last night against the Knicks which have been playing very well with now five straight victories. The defeat was Boston's fifth straight following a solid 7-2 run. To their credit, the Celtics have played a rough recent schedule with three playoff teams, Miami, Memphis and New York, a team closing in on the playoffs, Dallas, and a team that has suddenly been playing very well, New Orleans. The last time Boston hit the road to face a team as bad as Cleveland came in Charlotte over two weeks ago and they were embarrassed by 26 points. Don't expect that to happen again. Cleveland meanwhile has also lost five straight games and like Boston, it has come against a very tough stretch of teams. This difference now though is Cleveland is not part of that group while the Celtics are. Boston is not in danger of missing the playoffs but it is in danger of falling into eighth place as it is just a game and a half ahead of Milwaukee and falling there means a first round playoff date with Miami which is death. Cleveland won the last meeting here back in January as both teams were fully healthy. That is far from the case now as both are missing key players with Cleveland going without Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters and the Celtics now without Kevin Garnett on top of Rajon Rondo already being sidelines for quite some time. Boston is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games coming off a divisional loss as a favorite and it falls into a great situation where we play on road favorites coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 30-11 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last five seasons.

GoodFellaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn/Portland Over 193.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is the 2nd and final meeting between these teams this season. Brooklyn won on their home floor (98-85) as 7.5 point favs, back on Nov. 25th. It should be noted that Portland was without All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge for that game. Brooklyn in the middle of their brutal 8 game, 17 day roadie tonight, a they are (3-1 SU & ATS) on the roadie so far. They are coming off a (102-100) win at the Suns their last game on Sunday. Brooklyn was w/out Joe Johnson (quad) and he is questionable for tonights game and clearly he will be a definite "game time decision" for them tonight. Brooklyn currently sitting in that final HOME seed (#4) in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. They are 2 1/2 games behind the Pacers for the #3 seed, and sit just 2 1/2 games ahead of both the Hawks and Bulls for that important #4 seed. The Trail Blazers still have "some hope" of getting that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Lakers are pissing down their leg the last few games, and Portland is 2 1/2 games behind the Lakers (just 2 in the loss column) for that #8 seed. Portland also has to climb over both Utah and Dallas however, as they are 1 1/2 games behind both of them (just 1 in the loss column however). Portland does excel at home, and they do play 8 of their final 12 games at the Rose Garden, and this team WILL FIGHT to the end, that is for certain. Tonight is the Blazers 1st game back home off a grueling 5 game, 8 day East Coast roadie, not a good spot for teams. Portland is already (0-2 SU & ATS) playing their 1st game back home, off a road trip of 7 days or more this season. Ugly HOME losses to Phoenix and Sacramento. Going back much further, Portland is just (5-15 ATS L/20) in this situation (1st game back home off a roadie of 7 days or more.) Brooklyn has been pushing the pace more (getting more shots up) the last several games, and they have had their L/7 games go OVER the total coming into tonight. The OVER is (9-1 L/10) Portland HOME games, and when Portland is playing the better teams in the league (teams with a winning ROAD record), the OVER has cashed 4 straight times. I really like this game to go OVER the total and I expect at least 198 points tonight, and we are on the OVER here.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia Cavaliers -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa has covered the number in each of its last 8 games, but only one of these covers came in a true road game. I expect Iowa's spread-beating streak to come to an end as it plays a true road game for the first time since Mar. 2. The Hawkeyes have been terrific at home this season, but they are only 2-8 in true road games. They've dropped 6 of their last 7 on the road with the lone win coming against lowly Penn State. These 6 defeats came by an average of 6.0 points. Virginia is one of the very best home teams in the country. It has won its last 20 at home by an average of 16.4 points. The Cavaliers are 15-6 ATS under coach Tony Bennett in home games against non-conference opponents. They have won these contests by an average score of 68.2 to 51.6. Lay the points.