Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday March, 28

David Chan

San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: San Jose Sharks

The 39-27-10 San Jose Sharks swim into Anaheim to take on the 32-33-11 Ducks.

Antti Niemi is scheduled to start opposite Jonas Hiller between the pipes.

San Jose hammered the Avs 5-1 on Monday.

Joe Pavelski scored twice:

“We’ve seen how fast things can happen,” Pavelski said. “We’ve been on both sides of it. Leading the division right now doesn’t matter.”

The win catapulted the Sharks into first place in the Pacific Division with the Kings and Stars both losing earlier on the same day:

“The fact that we got the two points is the most significant thing, not where we are in the standings,” Sharks coach Todd McLellan said. “You can not play a game and drop three spots.”

Ryane Clowe, Torrey Mitchell and Andrew Desjardins also scored:

“We haven’t done anything yet,” captain Joe Thornton said. “We have to keep winning to make the playoffs.”

Niemi made 31-saves.

The Ducks are coming off a 3-2 loss to Boston on Sunday.

Teemu Selanne had a power-play marker; Hiller made just 22-saves.

Every game has become a "must win" now for the Sharks, but when you take into account that they'll be in Phoenix tomorrow night, and then hosting Dallas on the 31st, tonight's contest definitely takes on added importance.

And when you couple that very strong motivational factor along with the fact that San Jose plays with "revenge" here after falling 5-3 at home to the Ducks on March 19th, then I believe you'll agree with me that the Sharks are absolutely worth the "price of admission" in this one!

Marc Lawrence

Phoenix @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Phoenix

When the Clippers host the Suns in this Western Conference clash at the Staples Center this evening Phoenix will take the court knowing they defeated Los Angeles straight up in 16 of the last 18 games in this series. With the Suns desperately seeking a spot in the upcoming NBA playoffs and the Clippers rumored to be racked with dissension swirling around head coach Vinny Del Negro, the points become the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Phoenix.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +5½

The Bobcats fit a solid system as illustrated below that plays on home dogs of 5 or more with a day of rest that scored 90 or more as a home dog of 5 or more last out vs an opponent that played on the road in their last game, and both team shot 45% or less and had 25 or less assists in their last game. Home dogs have done well in this system winning 7 of 11 and covering 10 of 11. Normally Charlotte is inept and cant get out of their way. Tonight , However they may stay competitive against a Minnesota team that has no rest off a loss in Memphis last night. Charlotte has won 6 of the last 7 meetings here at home vs the Minnesota, and the Wolves are just 3-14 straight up in road games where the total is 195 to 200. Look for Charlotte to get the cover tonight.

Jeff Alexander

Utah Jazz +4

Utah has played a lot of games in few days but history suggests that swings the odds heavily in their favor. In fact, playing on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) off a road win by 10 points or more, provided they are playing their 5th game in 7 days, has produced a 37-12 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting this situation have only lost by an average of 1.8 points. It's also worth mentioning that this system is 14-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Utah is 8-1 ATS when playing their 5th game in 7 days this season, winning by an average of 6.1 points in this spot. We'll take the Jazz.

Hollywood Sports

Mercer at Utah St.
Prediction: Over

Utah State (17-15) nailed 12 of 16 of their shots from behind the arc (75%) while shooting 63.8% from the field en route to their 105-81 win versus Oakland last Saturday. Expect another high-scoring affair in this one as the Aggies have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total following a win. Utah State has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, in their last 11 games at home as a favorite of under seven points, the Aggies have played 10 of these games Over the Total. They host a Mercer team (22-11) that has won four straight -- including three in a row as an underdog -- after their 64-59 win at Fairfield as a 6-point underdog. The Bears nailed 10 of their 20 shots from behind the arc (50%) in that CBI Semifinals contest. Mercer has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Look for these team trends to continue in this one. Take the Over.

Jim Feist

Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks
Pick: Orlando Magic

Orlando is a talented team, third in the East. The Magic is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days rest and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New York is trying to hold onto the No. 8 seed in the East, but Knicks forward Amare Stoudemire is out "indefinitely" after an MRI revealed a bulging disk in his lower back, a huge blow to this offense. The Magic is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New York. Play Orlando!

Dave Cokin

Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics
Pick: Boston Celtics

The Celtics would seem to match up well with Utah, and the scheduling dynamics edge their way tonight. Look for Boston to complete the series sweep with the win and cover this evening.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles -½ +158/-106 over CALGARY

As we so often do in the NBA and other sports, we’re going to split this up and play a unit on both the money line and puck line. This is both teams’ biggest game of the season and under those conditions we’ll lean heavily to the superior club. The Flames broke out of an ugly funk last time out against Dallas when they scored four second period goals en route to an important 5-4 win. Calgary is now in 11th place but they’re just two points out of eighth. The Kings are coming off a tough 1-0 loss in Vancouver in a game they dominated for prolonged stretches. L.A. is in 9th place in the conference and just a point behind Dallas and Phoenix for 7th and 8th respectively. Everything is on the line here and this one single game could go a long way in determining who gets in. Prior to beating Dallas, the Flames had dropped five in a row and scored six times. Against the Kings, a strong defensive team, expect them to revert back to their offensive struggles and cave under the intense pressure of this playoff drive. The Kings last five games have come against San Jose, Nashville, St. Louis, Boston and Vancouver and after playing that set, they take a step down in class and one they should be more than ready to conquer. Play: Los Angeles -½ +158 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Los Angeles -106 (Risking 1.06 units to win 1).

ANAHEIM +114 over San Jose

The Ducks have nothing to play for. They’re finished but they haven’t quit and nothing would be sweeter than knocking off their most hated rival in San Jose’s quest to make the playoffs. Anaheim went into San Jose last week and defeated them 5-3. They’ve beaten the Sharks four out of five times this season. The Ducks have won two of their past three over San Jose and St. Louis, which is an indication that their desire is not gone. The Sharkies are playing better. They’ve won two in a row over Colorado and Phoenix but both those were at the Tank. They’ll play this one on the road, where San Jose has two wins in their past 12 games over Edmonton and Toronto. Play: Anaheim +114 (Risking 2 units).

MATT RIVERS

Free play for Wednesday is the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons recorded a rare road win on Monday night, edging Washington, but Detroit is just 2-8 straight up their last ten away from home and obviously are not getting enough points tonight to make me consider backing them.

Cleveland lost their fourth in a row last night in Philadelphia, but based on their series numbers against Detroit, I think the Cavs four game slide is going to be halted tonight at the Quicken Loans Arena.

Cleveland has won both series meetings this year, and they are on an overall 8-2 straight up roll versus the Pistons the past ten times they have faced one another. Against the spread, the Cavs are a positive 6-4 in those last ten meetings.

Priced near a pick, I will side with Cleveland to make it five straight wins over Detroit.

1♦ CLEVELAND

JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the underdog Phoenix Suns to keep it close tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Hurtful loss last night at home for the Suns, as Phoenix is running out of time to scramble for that 8th playoff spot in the West. Not fully convinced that back-to-back wins and covers by the Clippers has them firmly back on the beam, as Los Angeles had dropped their previous six against the spread, and eight of nine overall ATS.

Included in that span was a home loss to the same Suns they are entertaining tonight. Phoenix has had the Clippers' number, winning and covering four in a row in this series dating back to last season. The Suns are also on a 7-2 overall spread run their last nine games, and a 14-5 overall spread run their past 19 games.

Just enough wiggle-room tonight for the Suns to stay inside of this impost.

Back Phoenix plus the points.

2♦ PHOENIX

Vegas Experts

Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers
Play: Dallas Stars

Cheap price on the far better club here as the Stars travel to Edmonton to take on the Oilers. Edmonton may be off a couple of wins over Florida and Columbus, but the streak stops here as they've gone just 23-66-3 vs. Dallas long-term, including 3-8 last 11 and 0-3 this season. The Oilers are 4-22 when playing with revenge for a home loss by two goals or more and are 0-11 this season off a road game where both teams scored at least three goals. Dallas can't afford to miss out on the two points here; they are one of five teams battling for the final two playoff spots in the West.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Utah State/ Mercer Over 129: Gonna follow a theory of mine that the team favored, on their home floor should get the game at their own pace and I believe the Aggies will do that, which should easily put this game in the 130's. The Aggies have been scoring a ton of late, as they have averaged 80.6 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5 games. At home this year they have averaged a solid 73.4 ppg on 49.8% shooting. This team is not an all out fast paced team, but they don't slow the game down earlier. Mercer has played good defense this year as they have allowed 62.9 ppg and 62.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Now in those last 5 games they have been either at home, where they have allowed under 58 ppg, or they have played mostly slow down teams. On the road this year the Bears have allowed 69 ppg and in the post season they played one slightly uptempo team (Old Dominion) and they allowed 70 points in a game that saw 149 points scored. Mercer has also scored better on the road as they average 69.1 ppg overall, but 69.7 ppg away from home and they should be able to get their fair share of points vs an Aggie team that has allowed 69.4 ppg in the post season. Mercer doesn't play alot of higher scoring games, but their road games have averaged 138.7 ppg, while the last 5 Aggie games have averaged 150 ppg and their home games have averaged 137.6 ppg. This line is predicated on the fact that Mercer will get the pace where they will want it but two teams are playing this game and as you can see the Aggies don't like games that low scoring. On their home floor Utah State will dictate pace and that should put this game comfortably in the upper 130's.

2 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh / Washington State Over 131: I can understand the low OU line in the game played at Washington State, as Cougar home games have not been that high scoring, but now we're heading to Pitstburgh, where the Panthers have really opened up the offense of late. Pittsburgh has averaged 72.2 ppg at home overall, but in their last 3 home games they have put up 84 ppg. Defensively the Panthers have allowed 65.6 ppg at home, while in their last 3 games at home they have allowed. The Cougars play great defense at home, but on the road they have allowed 70.5 ppg and that should give Pitt a solid chance at hitting 70+ points here. Im really looking for around 62 or 63 from the Cougars here and I feel they should get it vs a Pitt team that has played some some defense at home, plus the Cougars have averaged 67.5 ppg on the road, including 80.5 ppg in their 2 true post-season road games. Pitt does not wanna lose this game or their season is over, so you can expect them to come out and put plenty of points on the board (72+), while the Cougars should get somewhere in the low 60's themselves.

WUNDERDOG

Utah at Boston
Pick: Boston -3.5

It is well noted that the aging Boston Celtics have struggled on the road playing on consecutive nights, but they broke through at Charlotte winning, and getting the money as well, in their last game. The C's have played nine of their last ten on the road, so it may look like a mediocre last ten games, but what they have done is take charge on their homecourt where they are 6-0 straight up in their last six, covering five of them. In addition, this team is always better on a day of rest. Utah has played better of late, but overall they have been a dreadful 8-17 on the road. They have been an inconsistent team and, off an ATS win, stand at 16-33 ATS in their last 49. Boston is now 5-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on Boston.

Bryan Power

Dallas Stars @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: Dallas Stars

Anytime, I can go against the Oilers at a relatively cheap price, I'm gonna jump on it. Edmonton is actually off back to back victories here, but the last came against Columbus, who happens to be the only team in the league with less points. Scoring six goals on the Blue Jackets is hardly that impressive when you consider how bad that team is. Dallas really could use the two points here as they are tied with Phoenix for seventh in the West, one point ahead of the two teams tied for ninth Los Angeles and Colorado and just two ahead of 11th place Calgary (who they just split a home and home with). Interestingly, the Stars are also only one point out of THIRD in the conference (aka the Pacific division lead, currently held by San Jose). Don't forget that division winners are top-3 seed protected. Dallas has dominated Edmonton through the years, and this season has been no different, going 3-0 while outscoring the Oilers 11-3. Edmonton is 4-22 this year when seeking revenge for a home loss by two or more goals. They are also 0-7 at home coming off BTB road games.