LARRY NESS
Memphis @ New Orleans
PICK: Memphis +2
While the Heat own the 8th spot in the East with a 30-31 record, the 31-30 Hornets and 30-30 Grizzlies find themselves on the outside looking in, four and 4 1/2-games respectively out of the West's final playoff spot. The Hornets have been without PG Chris Paul (20.45-4.6-11.2) since Jan 29 but UCLA rookie Collison has been brilliant in his absence. Collison took over for Paul on Jan 30 in a 109-102 win at Memphis, scoring 17 points and handing out 18 assists. Paul's missed the last 15 games but Collison has averaged 20.5 PPG and 9.4 APG over that span. Another rookie, Marcus Thornton of LSU, is averaging 12.3 PPG and in a Feb 23 loss at Cleveland scored 37 points off the bench, the third-highest point total by a rookie off the bench since the merger. New Orleans' Jan 30 win at Memphis ended the Grizzlies 11-game home winning streak and sent the team on a downward spiral which has seen them go 1-8 at home since. With the Hornets owning nine straight home wins over the Grizzlies, it would be easy to jump on New Orleans but the Grizzlies come into this game on a four-game road winning streak. A fifth straight road win here would set a franchise record. Let's take a look at this franchise for a moment and note the tremendous turnaround. Memphis entered this season having won 22, 22 and 24 games the previous three years but is 30-30 this year, fighting for a playoff spot. No one wanted Zach Randolph but the Grizzlies took him and he's delivered an All Star season (20.7-11.8). Gay (20.1-5.8), Mayo (17.6-3.7-3.1), Marc Gasol (14.9-9.4) and Conley (10.3) are a talented core of young players who could all be around for awhile. The Hornets have won the first two meetings but I'm on the Grizzlies in this one.
Jr Tips
Suns at Clippers
The Phoenix Suns lead the league with 109.2 points per game but are among the NBA's worst, giving up an average of 106.0 although the Suns are holding teams to 97.4 points and 44.3 percent shooting while winning seven of nine. They held the Nuggets who score 107.0 points per game to 52 in the final three quarters of Monday's 101-85 victory. Phoenix will look to win its eighth straight and fourth in a row this season against the Clippers who are scoring a conference-low 95.9 points per game. The Clippers have won four straight at home after beating the Jazz by barely holding on to a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter to avoid a third consecutive loss. The Suns forward Amare Stoudemire posted his second straight double-double Monday with 19 points and 10 rebounds after scoring a season-high 41 in Sunday's three-point loss at San Antonio. Lopez, Stoudemire and Steve Nash should be well-rested after all three sat the entire second quarter Tuesday when Phoenix blew out the. Nash, the league leader with 11.2 assists per game is averaging 15.3 points and 9.0 assists versus Los Angeles this season. The Suns have been playing lights out basketball and that includes their bench. The matchups favor the Suns on every position on the court and with the new defensive intensity, the Suns will win their eight straight against the Clippers.
Take SUNS -3.5
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +1.41 over CALGARY
There’s really nothing to get excited about when looking at the Flames as a favorite. They won the final game before the break but so what. They still lost three in a row prior to that and nobody really knew how teams were going to play the day last game before the two-week vacation. The Flames last three wins excluding the aforementioned last game came against Florida, Carolina and Edmonton. The Wild almost always are in a position to win. They hang around and they’re tough. Its last two losses were both by a single goal against Phoenix and Atlanta. They have recent wins over Vancouver, Philly, Colorado and Detroit. This is an absolutely crucial trip for the Wild, as they embark on a season long eight-game trip that starts here and will determine whether or not they make the playoffs. They have to know how important it is to get off to a good start and at the very least one would have to believe they’ll play extremely hard out of the gate. Play: Minnesota +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO +1.27 over Washington
The Caps lost three games in a row going into the break and subsequently OV and Semin did nothing in the Olympics. They’re still an offensive monster but that’s not the problem. As the season winds down, teams get a lot tougher and the Capitals are simply not a tough team. They’re a run and gun team but that style may not work against the Sabres. Furthermore, the Caps are allowing a ton of goals and even during its long winning streak they had to come back from two and three goal deficits. The Caps have been to Buffalo once this season and lost 3-0 and I also like the fact that the Sabres played last night while the Caps players that didn’t play in the Olympics may need a period or so to get their legs back. Lastly, the Sabres are 19-7 at home in regulation this season and Ryan Miller will be back in net giving the Sabres a big edge in that department. Play: Buffalo +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
Tony George
Alabama vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -3
Like the Gamecoocks at home on senior night to be fired up against a depleted Alabma unit with players out with injury and or suspended. South Carolina has knocked off Kentucky in here and Alabama has dropped 7 out of their last 8 SU. The numbers are even but I give SC a 4 point home advantage and have a total overlay of 7 points in this game against the line. Alabama thin at the guard postion, South Carolina is not. The power forard game for Alabama is weak at best and while both teams are 14-14, I give an edge to a home team very capable of a double digit win, laying a 3 pointer against a team reeling who is 2-6 SU on the road!
Steve Merril
Massachusetts vs. La Salle
Play: Massachusetts +4.5
Neither one of these teams is having a good season at all. Massachusetts knew they were in for a long, rebuilding year after graduating most of their team from a season ago. So their dismal record of 10-18 overall and 4-10 in conference play is of no surprise. However, the same cannot be said of a La Salle team that has an almost identical record of 11-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play. La Salle had all the pieces in place to breakout in the Atlantic-10 this season. They returned four seniors this year and also added a highly touted freshman, and high expectations surrounded the Explorers. But all that went out the window early on when injuries to their core players wiped out their season. Ruben Guillandeaux lasted four games before a stress fracture in his right foot ultimately ended his season. Kimmani Barrett went down with a broken right foot after 15 games. And in the stretch run, Yves Mekongo Mbala had surgery to repair a fractured pinkie finger on his left hand. Those three key injuries basically left Rodney Green to carry the team on his back, and despite all of the big numbers he’s put-up, La Salle cannot win games with one scorer on the floor. They’ve lost eight straight games, and nine of their last ten overall. La Salle has no home court edge whatsoever as they are just 5-7 SU and they’ve yet to cash a pointspread ticket (0-8 ATS) in Philadelphia this season. Their one home conference win came by just a single point over George Washington way back in mid-January. Simply put, La Salle has no business laying points, especially in this price range, no matter who the opponent may be. Obviously, Massachusetts is no great shakes. But the Minutemen finally get a match-up against a team that plays at their preferred pace. UMass likes to get up and down the court, but their last three games all came against slower paced teams that grind opponents in the half-court. So just draw a line through those results, and go back to when UMass was able to play fast and their results are much better. La Salle was able to beat UMass earlier this season 80-74, but that was when they had their full complement of players. That’s not the case tonight so Massachusetts rates the edge in this spot.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Kansas State @ Kansas
PICK: Kansas State +9
In the first meeting between these two on January 30th, KSU took the #2 Jayhawks to overtime behind the experienced guard play of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Kansas prevailed, however, winning 81-79. Having veteran guards in a team’s backcourt can make them very dangerous on the road. They have the ability of slowing momentum and calming the rest of their team down. Pullen and Clemente have done this the entire season. This Wildcats backcourt has led KSU to six straight Big 12 road victories and has only lost two games away from home this season (one road game, one neutral site game). Their only Big 12 road loss this season was @Missouri by 6 points.
Kansas is coming off of their 2nd loss of the season after losing by 8 to Oklahoma State. Normally, we wouldn’t go against a good team that is coming off of a loss; but this is too many points to be laying against a good team this late in the season. The Jayhawks continue to get over valued. They’ve covered in just one of their previous nine games (road win @Texas), and just one of their previous six home games.
Nothing is sure, but the Jayhawks have pretty much had themselves penciled in as a 1-seed for the NCAA tournament. They’ve been the most consistent team all season and all signs point to them getting that 1-seed. KSU, on the other hand, after being somewhat overlooked all season has finally started to garner some attention. The Wildcats have potential to get a 1-seed but they could use a big win on the road tonight. Expect a huge effort and a close game throughout.
Kansas played a really weak home slate in February. Their four games were against teams among the bottom five in the Big 12 (Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma). Kansas State is talented enough to stay within striking distance of the Jayhawks and with an experience backcourt; we expect them to get the easy cover tonight. Kansas State is 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record while Kansas is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. Go with the Wildcats plus the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +10.5
After an absolutely dominant performance against the New York Knicks, the Cavs should experience a letdown tonight. Playing the worst team in the NBA doesn't usually excite the best team in the league either. In fact, that's a big reason why Cleveland is 0-3 ATS versus the Nets this season, not winning by more than 10 points in any of those three games. Plus, plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the Nets and the points for 1 unit.
Rob Vinciletti
Cal Irvine vs. Cal Santa Barbara
Play: Cal Santa Barbara -8
UCSB is a solid 4-0 straight up and against the spread after scoring 60 or less this year, and 8-2 after allowing 60 or less. When they are a home favorite in this range they have won all 4 times with 3 covers. They have big revenge tonight from a close loss at UC. Irvine earlier in the year. UC Irvine is a terrible 0-5 straight up and against the spread vs winning teams this year, 3-7 ats a s a dog and 0-4 and 1-3 ats off a win this year. Look for Cal Santa Barb to get the win and cover here tonight.
Nelly's FREE NCAA PICK - March 3
UAB - over Memphis
UAB will have a hard time catching UTEP as the top team in Conference USA but they will have the opportunity to play the Miners this weekend. More important is tonight’s key game with Memphis that should determine the second place team in the conference as well as position for a potential at-large spot in the NCAA tournament. The Blazers have just five losses on the season but one of those misses came in a ten-point loss at Memphis earlier this season. That game came in a brutally difficult spot as the Blazers had just played a double-overtime game with UTEP in the previous game. UAB has not defeated Memphis since 2006 but a lot has changed with the Tigers program and UAB is 13-2 S/U at home for the season. Memphis has lost just six games this season but the win over UAB at home rates as the strongest win of the season as the non-conference schedule was light and the Tigers lost the toughest games. Memphis lost by 17 in the most recent road game at Houston and the Tigers have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation this year with a 8-16 spread mark, including going 5-15 in the past 20 games and 3-7 in the last ten road games. UAB is the much stronger defensive team in this match-up allowing just 60 points and less than 40 percent shooting in home games this season.
THE PREZ
St. Joseph's +9.5
The St. Joseph's Hawks have certainly had a disappointing season, but we also feel that the George Washington Colonials are a tad overrated here as we do not feel comfortable laying nearly double-digits with this team.
The Colonials have been decent but not great at home, going 8-5 straight up with a losing 5-6 record against the spread, and their average winning margin at home vs. Division I opponents is +6.1 points, which is not good enough to cover this number.
George Washington can play defense, but their offense is very ordinary, as they rank just 163 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Pomeroy. They rank an identically bad 203 in both two-point percentage (47.0 percent) and three-point percentage (33.5 percent). Furthermore, the 42.6 percent the Colonials are shooting over their last five games is actually down from their year-to-date numbers, and they are a terrible foul shooting team at 64.9 percent.
The Hawks may not be much, but the did take conference kingpin Temple to overtime two games ago, and they are still in a three-way battle with Massachusetts and La Salle for the last two spots in the Atlantic 10 tournament, as only the top 12 teams will participate. St. Joseph's is currently tied with La Salle in the 12-spot with a 4-12 A-10 mark, one game behind Massachusetts at 5-11.
Thus, the Hawks should be the more motivated team tonight, so look for them to ride that emotion to a cover at this big number.
LT PROFITS
Connecticut/Notre Dame Under 143
The Under is 9-4 in the last 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish games overall, as well as 11-5 in the last 16 Connecticut Huskies road games, and we look for both of those patterns to remain in tact this evening.
Both of these teams have had more Under than you would think this season, but by the same token, that is not as surprising when you consider that the books have been able to inflate their totals because of the reputation of each club being a running team.
The fact of the matter is that the Connecticut defense has been better and more consistent than their offense this year. While there offense has been inconsistent to the point where they are just as capable of scoring 60 points as they are 80, the defense is allowing 66.8 points per game on 38.7 percent shooting from the floor. The last five Huskies games have averaged a combined 138.0 points, so maybe the pressure of trying to make the Big Dance is too much for this young team.
Now the Irish will never be known for defense, but the latest reports are that Luke Harangody may not return to action this season, and that is a huge blow to the offense. Thus, do not look for Notre Dame to reach their season average of 79.1 points vs. a stiff defense without their leading scorer.
Yes, the Irish put up 78 at Georgetown Saturday, but they were playing purely on adrenaline with their best player out, so a return to normalcy should be in store tonight. The end result should be a game in the 130s.
TEDDY COVERS
Temple @ Saint Louis
PICK: Saint Louis +3
The Atlantic-10 has gotten more hype this year than in any season since 2004, when Jameer Nelson and Delonte West led St Joseph’s to a #1 ranking and an Elite Eight appearance. Bracketologists are claiming that Richmond, Rhode Island, Xavier, Temple and Dayton are all in position to earn NCAA bids.
All of that hype has allowed the best pointspread team of the bunch to retain their value for the better part of the last two months. Rick Majerus’ St Louis squad has been a huge under-the-radar ATS juggernaut. They are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games; 11-3 against the number in the last two full months, completely overlooked by the betting markets.
The Billikins have a huge homecourt edge these days. Charlotte head coach Bobby Lutz: “Scotttrade or Savvis or Kiel or whatever they called it, it was a cavernous place. Now they have a great facility with a great atmosphere. The student’s are engaged. It’s the perfect size. It’s a great home court.”
Dayton head coach Brian Gregory agreed. “It’s a great college basketball facility. They did everything right. I’m not sure Saint Louis ever had a home court where it felt at home playing in that other building. There’s another thing: Sometimes people talk about how hard it is to play in a certain place but it’s also because the team is good. Saint Louis is really good.”
The Billikins have pulled off outright upset wins on this floor against Richmond, Rhode Island and Dayton in recent weeks. Their lone A-10 loss came by two points in spread covering fashion against conference leader Xavier. With guard Kwamain Mitchell on fire from downtown, forward Willie Reed blocking multiple shots every night and Australian import Cody Ellis providing a huge boost since earning his eligibility right at the start of this ATS hot streak, look for the Billikins to continue their run of pointspread success on senior night tonight. 2* Take St Louis
BIG AL
Minnesota @ Dallas
PICK: Minnesota +14
The Mavericks come into this ball game red-hot, as they have won eight straight, including four straight ATS. And, in their last game, the Mavs went into Charlotte -- a very tough place for visitors -- and escaped with an 89-84 win, after being down big early in the game. In their win streak, Dallas has defeated such teams as Phoenix, Orlando, Miami, the Lakers, Atlanta and New Orleans, so this is a very impressive stretch of games! Still, Dallas is a very poor 0-20 ATS its last 20 as a home favorite of more than 4 points since November 20, 2009! And Minnesota falls into a 161-111 ATS system of mine that plays on certain rested, double-digit underdogs off three or more SU losses. Take the points with Minnesota.
Dennis Macklin
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -6
Two 20-8 teams strap it up in tonight's key Big 12 showdown. IMO, the Texas A&M Aggies are one of the true under-the-radar teams with a real chance to do some damage in the big dance. The Aggies are a veteran bunch that is long and athletic, play great defense, and supremely coached by an underrated Mark Turgeon. You'd be hard pressed to find a better spot than this for A&M, catching Oklahoma State off their upset of Kansas on what figures to be an emotional senior night at Reed Arena in College Station. The Cowboys are no great shakes on the road with four Big 12 highway losses by more points than they'll get tonight. OSU also only 3-7 TY as a dog and just 1-4 as a road dog of 3-6 points. The Aggies on the hand are loaded with positive techs including 16-8 ATS overall, 9-4 ATS in conference, 8-4 ATS at home, 11-4 ATS avenging same year road loss .... well you get the idea. Last but not least, this is the true revenge spot of a Cowboy 75-69 win at Stillwater where OSU spanked A&M 30-19 on the boards. OSU in the guantlet tonight off Kansas win and might just be happy to get out of Dodge in one piece with their own senior day versus helpless Nebraska on deck. Take Texas A&M
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -3.5
I don't anticipate this one being a blowout. In fact, the Clippers will likely hang around most of this game. But when it's all said and done, I just think the Suns have too many weapons not to defeat the Clippers for a 8th straight time while covering the number in the process. If you can't defend, you have no shot against Phoenix. So to me, this says it all. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Suns are winning these games by an average score of 107.2 to 97.6. Lay the number.