Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -6.5
Expect the Nuggets to be about as motivated as they've been all season long tonight. Off back-to-back road defeats, the Nuggets return home to take on a team that clobbered them by 17 points on January 29. Plus, this is an especially tough spot for the Thunder who just played last night. Denver will be fresh and ready to run up the score. Here's the key: Plays Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 66-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll lay the points with Denver tonight.
Jeff Benton
Yet another free-play winner Tuesday, as Wisconsin-Green Bay (5♦) extended a late lead and cashed against Youngstown State. I’m now on runs of 31-14-1, 21-8-1, 18-7-1 and 12-4-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Wednesday, I’ll lay the chalk with Texas A&M at home against Oklahoma State.
I was wrong about the letdown theory with Syracuse last night (I used St. John’s as my premium selection). But that doesn’t mean the theory isn’t real, and I see Oklahoma State falling victim to it tonight. The Cowboys are coming off Saturday’s wire-to-wire home victory over top-ranked Kansas as a six-point underdog – and the 85-77 final doesn’t do justice to just how dominant Oklahoma State was in that game.
No question, after such an impressive win, the Cowboys will come into this game against Texas A&M feeling VERY good about themselves. That puts them in a dangerous situation, because the Aggies have won six of their last eight games (including Saturday’s 74-58 beat-down of Texas as a one-point home favorite). A&M cashed in all eight games, including going 4-0 ATS as a favorite and 4-0 ATS at home.
This is also a huge game for the Aggies, who currently sit fifth in the Big 12 standings, a half-game back of Baylor and Missouri. If they can get into that third or fourth slot, they’ll earn a first-round bye in next week’s Big 12 tournament.
A&M is 14-1 on its home floor this year (only blemish was a five-point setback to Kansas as a 6½-point underdog). On top of that, the Aggies are in payback mode (they lost 76-69 at Oklahoma State as a 5 ½-point underdog on Jan. 27 – the last time they failed to cover a spread). Finally, not only have they covered the spread in eight straight games, but the Aggies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games, 7-0 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of less than seven points, while Oklahoma State has failed to cover in six of its last eight as an underdog, including five of six as a road pup.
5♦ TEXAS A&M
Scott Delaney
Kansas State at Kansas
Just seems like too many points to give not just your intra-state rival, but the No. 5 team in the nation with arguably the most spirited coach this season.
While I believe Kansas poses the biggest threat in the Big Dance, and overall has the deepest and most talented team, it's proven it isn't invincible. And for coach Frank Martin, he knows this all too well, and is the one coach who can make the phrase "any team is beatable on any given night" ring true.
According to him: "Kansas (is) the biggest game we’ve ever played at K-State."
The last time these two met, the Jayhawks beat the Wildcats 81-79 in overtime.
And tonight this game has big-time implications, not to mention state bragging rights and seeding for the postseason at stake.
This is not a game you have near double digits on, not with this type of caliber.
Take the underdog.
1♦ KANSAS STATE
Stephen Nover
This is a kill spot for the Magic and they should take advantage.
It's not just because the Magic are an elite team, while Golden State has the third-worst record in the NBA.
Golden State ranks last in defense, is missing three key players and is in a terrible situation.
Out for Golden State is Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette, their two best scorers, along with center Andris Biedrins. The Warriors have no one to stop Dwight Howard, who is looking to vent his frustrations after two foul-plagued games that ended his club-record 20 straight double-double performances.
Orlando can't afford a letup trying to stay ahead of Atlanta in the Southeast Division. The Magic don't play again until Friday when they take on the league's worst team, New Jersey. So the Magic should be focused.
The Warriors are playing their second cross-country game in two nights. They gave it a great shot but came up short against Miami last night.
How bad is Golden State's defense? The Heat scored 110 points. Miami had averaged 82.5 points in its last four games.
The Warriors have dropped 14 of their last 18 games. They are a long ways from home and are able to only dress the minimum eight players because of their many injuries. They don't have the weapons, talent, drive and desire to hang close in this road situation against the vastly superior Magic.
2♦ ORLANDO
Washington (+10) at MILWAUKEE
Milwaukee is playing its best basketball of the season. But the Bucks are laying too many points against a Wizards squad that also is playing well.
The Wizards are 4-3 since dealing their two best players, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler.
Without Jamison, Butler and suspended Gilbert Arenas, the Wizards' star level is down but their teamwork and chemistry is up. The Wizards are finally buying into coach Flip Saunders' system and actually working hard on defense.
Randy Foye isn't flashy at point guard like Arenas, but he's been solid now that he's finally comfortable in the role. Andray Blatche has been playing as well as anyone in the NBA at power forward, averaging 26.6 points and 11.7 rebounds in his last seven games.
The Wizards have covered seven of their past nine games, including going 4-0 ATS on the road.
Washington has beaten Milwaukee in both meetings this season.
This is the first of a home-and-home series between the two teams. The Bucks play the Wizards in Washington on Friday. The Bucks then host the Cavaliers on Saturday in a huge game for them.
The Bucks don't want to show too much tonight against the Wizards, nor run up a score, with the teams meeting just two days later. Expect a tight, close game.
2♦ WIZARDS
Bobby Maxwell
Oklahoma City at DENVER
I've got a winner in the NBA tonight as I go with the over in the Thunder-Nuggets game from Denver.
There is no way these two teams stay below this number tonight. Play the over when the Thunder visit the Nuggets.
Eight of their last 10 meetings have gone over the posted number, even though each of the two this season have stayed under.
Denver had been a scoring juggernaut until playing in Los Angeles on Sunday. Their two road games didn’t go so well at the Lakers and Suns as they lost them both and didn’t manage over 89 points in either game. But prior to that, the Nuggets had scored 106 or more in six of the previous eight overall.
The Nuggets average 111.7 per game at home while Oklahoma City puts up 98.3 ppg on the highway.
On Sunday, Oklahoma City put up 119 in a 119-99 win over the Raptors as Kevin Durant started a new streak of 25 points or more as he had 29 points. Jeff Green pitched in 20 and they didn’t even get a stellar game from Russell Westbrook who only had 14, yet the team still got 119. Then on Tuesday, the Thunder beat the Kings 113-107 as Westbrook went for 30 and Durant had 39 points and 10 boards.
And you can expect a Denver explosion in this one after their two ugly losses. Carmelo was 7-of-21 against the Suns on Monday and you know he’ll be ready to go off. Grab the over and ride it to an easy winner tonight.
2♦ OVER
Duke (-1') at MARYLAND
I have a college hoops winner for you on Duke as I go with the Blue Devils visiting Maryland in an ACC showdown.
Duke dominates Maryland seemingly every time out. So I don’t expect to see much different tonight. The Blue Devils have won six straight over the Terps and gone 4-1-1 ATS in those six.
Back on Feb. 13, Duke hosted the Terps and scored a 77-56 win as a 9 ½-point favorite. Last year they went to Maryland and got a 78-67 road win as six-point favorites.
Overall, the Blue Devils have rattled off eight straight wins (4-2-2 ATS), including a dominating 67-49 performance at Virginia on Sunday, cashing as a 9 ½-point favorite. Kyle Singler is making a bid for ACC player of the year and he churned out 21 points against the Cavaliers.
Defensively, the Blue Devils have to contain Greivis Vasquez who is by far the emotional leader of the Terps. He put up 41 against Virginia Tech on Saturday. But when the Blue Devils shut him down, they’ve shut down the Terps.
Duke is 3-0-2 ATS in its last five league games and I have them winning this one by 12. Go with the Blue Devils big in this one.
4♦ DUKE
Chuck O'Brien
U.C. Irvinie (+8') at U.C. SANTA BARBARA
Take U.C. Irvine plus the points at U.C. Santa Barbara in Big West hoops action on Wednesday.
Even though UCSB needs to win this game to lock up the Big West Conference regular season title, I just don’t trust the Gauchos to cover this big of a pointspread. Of their 10 conference wins to this point, only three have come by more than eight points. USCB’s last five victories (all in conference) were by margins of 5, 4, 8, 2 and 4 points, and the Gauchos just saw their six-game winning streak end with Saturday’s embarrassing loss at Cal Poly.
Although UC Irvine has struggled this year in Big West action, one of their five league wins came against Santa Barbara back on Jan. 2. In fact, the Anteaters have historically had a lot of success with UCSB, winning five of the last seven meetings SU and ATS. Furthermore, they’ve cashed in four straight trips to Santa Barbara, and the road underdog has cashed in each of the last five series meetings.
Irvine is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a big underdog (7 to 12½ points), and this is one of the biggest pointspreads UCSB has laid all season – and it comes in the Gauchos’ biggest game of the season. That’s a recipe for disaster.
3♦ U.C. IRVINE
Chris Jordan
Rice at HOUSTON (-14')
Senior Night in H Town, just as it is for so many other teams ending their home schedule as well. And for this home chalk, I think it's an easy win over its cross-town rival.
The Cougars (14-14 overall and 6-8 in C-USA play) are not your typical two-touchdown favorite, I realize this, but they've owned the Owls, winning seven straight in this series, including a 17-point win at Rice on Jan. 6.
Rice has lost five straight overall, by an average margin of nearly 15 points. And though they've covered their fair share in this series, the Owls are on point-spread slides of 3-7 after an ATS cover, 1-5 on Wednesdays and 2-5 overall - all in Conference USA play.
I'm betting Houston won't want to run the risk of brushing up against a losing season, and will take full advantage of a team it's already beaten up once this season, with another blowout win.
2♦ HOUSTON
Cal Irvine at SANTA BARBARA (-8')
The Gauchos have plenty to play for tonight, as the No. 1 seed is still theirs to gain, while they're likely out to avenge a 60-57 loss to Cal Poly on Saturday. The setback ended a six-game win streak; nevertheless, a win tonight the team will lock up the first seed in the league tournament.
Another factor - revenge is a key factor, as the Anteaters grabbed a 57-55 victory over UC Santa Barbara earlier this season.
Fact is, Santa Barbara just wasn't itself the other night, shooting an ice-cold 34 percent from the floor and finishing up 8-of-21 from behind the three-point stripe.
That's a far cry from a team that is UCSB producing 67.5 points per game on 43.8 pecent shooting. The Gauchos are even better at home, firing a stellar 46.1 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from three-point land.
And since Irvine gives up 73 points a game on 47.4 percent shooting when on the road, I'll expect a double-digit blowout here.
1♦ SANTA BARBARA
Karl Garrett
St. Joseph's at GEORGE WASHINGTON (-10)
Now on a 9-1 comp play run after Villanova covers by the hook last night.
Not one of Phil Martelli's better "editions" this year on Hawk Hill, as St. Joe's is just 9-19 on the season, and I think they are headed for loss # 20 tonight.
The Hawks consistently get outrebounded in their games, and that has lead to losses in 5 straight, and 8 of their last 9. The points haven't been much of a help either, as St. Joseph's is just 3-6 against the spread in those 9 games, and the Hawks are on a further spread dive of 3-10 their last 13 on the road.
George Washington is closing strong, winning their last pair, and 4 of 5 both straight up, and 4 of their last 5 against the spread.
The Colonials have won 5 of the last 8 in the series, and they have covered the last 3.
Go ahead and lay it, as the Hawks take it on the chin once again.
2♦ GEORGE WASHINGTON
Massachusetts (+4) at LA SALLE
Now on a 9-1 comp play run after Villanova covers by a hook last night.
Have to continue to go against the injured La Salle Explorers.
La Salle is still winless against the spread at home, at 0-8 against the spread. The Explorers are also riding an 8 game winless streak straight up!
Hard to make a case for the host tonight, that is for sure.
UMass has lost their last 3, but the Minutemen do own a 9-7 spread mark on the road this year, covering in 8 of their last 10 roadies.
La Salle has won and covered the last 3 series meetings, including the first this year at Massachusetts. Expect the visitor to go all out in order to avoid the season-series sweep.
Until La Salle actually covers a home game, you have to go against them.
3♦ MASSACHUSETTS
Derek Mancini
Indiana at PURDUE (-19')
Based on this line, you either believe oddsmakers are crazy, or that Indiana has raised the "white flag." Count me as one of the 'cappers who believe the season is already over for the Hoosiers, who've shown not an ounce of pride in losing their last 7 games SUATS!
The only reason why gamblers are backing Indiana in this match up is the injury to Robbie Hummel. Unfortunately, the first team that Purdue had to play after the injury was Michigan State, which knew exactly how to attack and defend the Boilermakers in the absence of one of their star players... Indiana is no Michigan State, not by a longshot! The Hoosiers do not have the personnel, the motivation, or the coaching to prevent a Purdue team hell-bent on a bounce back from routing them tonight.
This is a statement game for the Boilermakers. Everyone from the media, to the fans (check the blogs) have given up on this Purdue team after the loss to the Spartans... Give them a little more credit than that, especially in a match up against a terrible Indiana team! You're not going to replace Hummel, but what the Boilermakers still have is a suffocating defense at home (57 ppg, 39% shooting), which will be on full display tonight. Indiana shoots 38% on the road, and I project even worse than that tonight. Purdue has something to prove, and unfortunately for Indiana, they're tonight's proving ground. Lay the points.
3♦ PURDUE
Duke at MARYLAND (+1')
Can't deny these two schools last meeting was all Duke, with the Blue Devils cruising past the Terrapins 77-56 at Cameron Indoor. That has been the case all season with the Duke, who's 10-4-1 record ATS in Durham is excellent, but the same cannot be said for their play anywhere else (7-5-1 ATS away).
Blue Devils outright losses at Wisconsin, at Georgia Tech, at NC State, and at Georgetown are tough to ignore. And when you factor in a very fishy line - only having to lay less than a basket to ride the # 4 team in the country - I can't, in good conscience, back anyone but Maryland here. It's just too easy to back the Blue Devils, based on the line.
Maryland didn't lose their last meeting because they got outplayed in the backcourt (Vasquez was good, Hayes and Tucker were decent). They lost because Landon Milbourne and Jordan Williams got completely outplayed by Brian Zoubek! You'd think they would get outplayed by Singler, but it was the 7'1 center (who averages 5 ppg and 7 rpg) who led the way with 16 points and 17 rebounds! Zoubek hasn't played that well since that game (every dog has his day), and was terrible in his last one, putting up zero points and 4 boards at Virginia. Don't expect he'll be nearly the "force" (Zoubek a force - what a joke) he was Feb 13th, while the Maryland frontline finally shows up to play on their home court tonight. Grab the points with Maryland Wednesday!
2♦ MARYLAND
Michael Cannon
Oklahoma State vs. TEXAS A&M (-6)
Take Texas A&M as the home chalk over Oklahoma State.
I just don’t see the Cowboys repeating the shooting performance they had in the first meeting at Stillwater. Oklahoma State shot 57 percent from the floor and 12-of-18 from beyond-the-arc.
Even with that performance the Cowboys only won by seven.
Now they travel to face an Aggies team that has played great at home. Texas A&M has held three of its last four opponents to fewer than 60 points and is coming off a dominating 74-58 win over Texas on Saturday.
Texas A&M is on an 8-0 ATS run overall and they are 14-1 SU at home this year.
Oklahoma State has covered just two of its last eight road games.
Take Texas A&M minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ TEXAS A&M
Dwayne Bryant
PHI +8.5 vs ATL
I love when we have a team getting points who "underachieved" in their last game and is playing a team who overachieved" in their last contest. That's what we have tonight in Atlanta. I realize this is one of those "hold your nose" type plays, but those are some of the best plays.
Atlanta comes into this one off a huge 24-point win at Chicago. They were 1-point dogs, meaning they covered the spread by 25 points. THAT is "overachieving" in my book, which makes this a good spot for a letdown. The oddsmakers and wiseguys agree.
This line opened at Atlanta only -9. I say "only -9" because these two met in Philly in late November. Atlanta was -5.5 in that game and won by 14. Now they play the 76ers at home and the line only goes up 3.5 points?
The line for tonight's game opened at Atlanta -9. At this time, over 6,300 bets have been reported and 74% of those bets have been on the Hawks. Yet the line has dropped to 8.5!
Philly comes into this one off a 21-point loss at home against Orlando. They were only 4-point dogs, so they lost ATS by 17 points. THAT is what I call underachieving, and apparently so does coach Eddie Jordan. Jordan ripped into his team after that loss, accusing his team of having no internal leadership and a poor demeanor.
"I didn't call anyone in particular out," Jordan said. "When I talked about leadership, it went beyond leadership, just someone - someone - to bring some sort of spirit and competitive spirit."
"The message was clear: We need to play better," said guard Lou Williams.
I'm not about to call for an outright win, but the 76ers should be in this game all the way. The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, which shows they tend to bounce back strong off an embarrassing loss. And the verbal lashing they took from coach Jordan should only enhance that bounce-back ability tonight. Grab the points with Philadelphia.
Sac Lawson
UAB / Memphis Over 137
Let's take a huge hint from the Vegas oddsmakers and run with it here, shall we? These two teams played earlier this season and hit 160. The line in that game was 128! Now, if 128 was truly an accurate line and the game just played out to be an anomoly then Vegas would come right back with a line of around 130 or so tonight. Instead they opened it at 138. They are fully admitting they were way off in that first game, and showing us that by increasing this line by 10 points. Problem is, it's still not enough!
Two reasons why a lot of people will play this UNDER. First is UAB's tempo, 2nd is Memphis' tempo. Neither team is very fast, but they are both extremely efficient offensively. They both shoot the ball well (especially UAB at home), and they both avoid turnovers, but the kicker is this: They both get to the line a TON. I absolutely love going with Over's when you've got two teams that love to attack the paint and get on the free throw line. These teams should each be given around 20 FTA's tonight, and points with the clock stopped is huge for us.
No doubt Memhpis is a team that will try and push the tempo a bit more against UAB, and the reason UAB played to that level in the first matchup is because they are all juniors and seniors. UAB doesn't play a high octane game anymore, but they WILL if pushed to do so. There's no reason in limiting guys from running when they have the experience to do so, and UAB lives up to that.
I have no doubt Memphis will try and push the tempo yet again, and I have no doubt UAB can, and will be comfortable playing to that tempo. Fact is, we'll get plenty of free throws tonight, and we've got two teams that are efficient offensively, so the long scoreless stretches shouldn't be there tonight. UAB is a team that averages over 70 points a game at home, and Memphis is a team that gives up around 73 on the road. I have no doubts the winner of this one will HAVE to be in the 70's tonight. Plays the OVER, as vegas has adjusted their line the 2nd time around, but not nearly enough.