Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 6

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Stanford at California
The Bears look to take advantage of a Stanford team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at California. California is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: California (-5)

Game 729-730: DePaul at Syracuse (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 52.821; Syracuse 73.936
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 21
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 20
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-20)

Game 731-732: Michigan at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 71.039; Purdue 62.072
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9; 136
Vegas Line: Michigan by 6; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-6); Over

Game 733-734: Georgetown at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 72.936; Villanova 69.400
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 3 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: Villanova by 1 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+1 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: Oklahoma State at Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.939; Iowa State 73.399
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 3 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 737-738: Central Florida at UAB (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 54.884; UAB 56.808
Dunkel Line: UAB by 2
Vegas Line: UAB by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+4 1/2)

Game 739-740: North Carolina at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 71.060; Maryland 66.712
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Pick; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina; Over

Game 741-742: George Washington at LaSalle (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 57.408; LaSalle 70.050
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 9
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-9)

Game 743-744: Temple at Fordham (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 62.188; Fordham 52.861
Dunkel Line: Temple by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+10 1/2)

Game 745-746: St. Bonaventure at Dayton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 58.042; Dayton 67.136
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 9
Vegas Line: Dayton by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-7 1/2)

Game 747-748: Rhode Island at St. Joseph's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 54.184; St. Joseph's 65.396
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 11
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-8 1/2)

Game 749-750: Mississippi State at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 48.196; South Carolina 54.483
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+8 1/2)

Game 751-752: Charlotte at Duquesne (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 56.202; Duquesne 52.509
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-2)

Game 753-754: Tulane at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 55.057; East Carolina 61.263
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 6
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 4
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-4)

Game 755-756: Vanderbilt at Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 62.900; Florida 81.842
Dunkel Line: Florida by 19
Vegas Line: Florida by 18
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-18)

Game 757-758: LSU at Texas A&M (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 61.151; Texas A&M 64.022
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 5
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+5)

Game 759-760: Rice at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 44.461; Houston 56.248
Dunkel Line: Houston by 12
Vegas Line: Houston by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+13 1/2)

Game 761-762: SMU at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 54.527; Tulsa 57.085
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 4
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+4)

Game 763-764: Richmond at VCU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 60.646; VCU 74.237
Dunkel Line: VCU by 13 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: VCU by 12 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-12 1/2); Over

Game 765-766: Wake Forest at NC State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 58.843; NC State 72.182
Dunkel Line: NC State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: NC State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+14 1/2)

Game 767-768: Georgia Tech at Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 58.314; Miami (FL) 73.453
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 15
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 13
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-13)

Game 769-770: West Virginia at Oklahoma (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 57.903; Oklahoma 72.216
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 14 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 11; 140
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-11); Over

Game 771-772: Connecticut at South Florida (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 63.880; South Florida 60.817
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3; 117
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4; 122
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+4); Under

Game 773-774: Minnesota at Nebraska (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 68.277; Nebraska 63.372
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 5; 119
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+7 1/2); Under

Game 775-776: Tennessee at Auburn (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 64.172; Auburn 61.108
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+5)

Game 777-778: St. Louis at Xavier (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 68.325; Xavier 66.649
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+4)

Game 779-780: UCLA at Washington State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 66.588; Washington State 61.530
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 5
Vegas Line: UCLA by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-2 1/2)

Game 781-782: New Mexico at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 66.437; Nevada 59.416
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 7; 129
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 8 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+8 1/2); Under

Game 783-784: Colorado State at Wyoming (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 63.674; Wyoming 60.892
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 3
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+5)

Game 785-786: Stanford at California (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 62.864; California 72.148
Dunkel Line: California by 9 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: California by 5; 134
Dunkel Pick: California (-5); Over

Game 787-788: USC at Washington (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 60.705; Washington 65.811
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5
Vegas Line: Washington by 4
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4)

Game 789-790: Air Force at San Diego State (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 58.019; San Diego State 71.769
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 14
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 12
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-12)

Game 791-792: Loyola Marymount vs. Portland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola Marymount 48.755; Portland 50.221
Dunkel Line: Portland by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Portland

Game 793-794: Tennessee-Martin vs. Morehead State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 37.604; Morehead Sate 48.098
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+12 1/2)

Game 795-796: Eastern Illinois vs. SE Missouri State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.677; SE Missouri State 47.921
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+4)

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Loyola Marymount vs. PortlandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Loyola MarymountFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a first round matchup in the West Coast Conference Tournament taking place at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. It has obviously been a disappointing season for both teams but more so for the Lions. They were picked as high as fourth in the preseason WCC rankings but have come no where close to that although their season has been better than their 1-15 record indicates. After starting 0-2 with expected losses at BYU and St. Mary's, Loyola-Marymount jumpstarted the season with a win over Santa Clara in January but has not tasted victory since. The Lions have lost 14 straight games and some of those have been excruciating with exactly half of those coming by four points or fewer so while the season has been tough to take, it feasibly could be better. Additionally, nine of 10 single-digit losses were a single possession game with less than two minutes to play. One of those close losses came against Portland, a team that swept the Lions, but beating a team three times in the same season is difficult. The Pilots finished 4-12 in the WCC with the other two wins coming against San Francisco and San Diego by two and three points respectively and unlike the Lions, a lot of their losses were not close as nine of the 12 defeats came by at least 11 points. Portland is coming off a 29-point loss at Gonzaga to end the regular season and it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. Meanwhile the Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. This sets up very similar to two years ago when Loyola-Marymount came into the WCC Tournament as the lower seed against the Pilots and had lost both regular season meetings but went on to win the third meeting of the season. Expect a similar outcome this year.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics vs. Indiana PacersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Boston CelticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston is playing some very good basketball and has won three straight contests and will be playing the second night of a back-to-back after taking out Philadelphia last night! This could be a preview of a play off matchup, so you can bet this tilt will get emotional and physical. Boston has won three straight in the series, including an 86-72 victory in its last trip to Indiana on Apr. 7, 2012 last season, and I wont be surprised if this projected hard fought game comes down to the wire !..... Rondo or no Rondo- I feel this line is bloated!

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Florida vs UABFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UABFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's well under the national radar, but one of the more impressive down the stretch rallies has been turned in by UAB. The Blazers have made it all the way to the right side of the .500 plateau with a 6-1 surge, including the last four in succession. UAB plays its home finale here, and it's actually an important game as they now have a chance to make it to a minor tournament, but a loss here would be costly. The Blazers are catching UCF off a disappointing loss in its home closer, and that was one the Knights really wanted against Memphis. I'm not sold the road team will be very interested here, so I'd rather spot a few points and back the hosts, who should be more motivated. Let's make it UAB minus the points tonight.

Jim Feist

USC at Washington
Pick: Washington

A tough situational spot for USC, off of three consecutive home games. The Trojans are 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games overall and 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. Washington (16-13) is showing some fight for a winning season, winning 3 of the last 4 games, evening winning at Arizona State as a +6 dog. The Huskies won 69-41 in Seattle last year over USC and historically the Huskies have finished strong in the last four regular-season conference games during the Lorenzo Romar era: Over the previous four seasons they have a combined record of 13-3 down the home stretch. Play Washington.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulane at East CarolinaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In his third season at Tulane, Ed Conroy has turned around the fortunes in New Orleans and has the Green Wave on the verge of a 20-win campaign for the first time since 2000. However, despite five returning starters this season, Tulane has fallen into a disturbing trend recently of giving up early double-digit leads to the opponent before storming back in the second half. Conroy promises to have his team focused from the opening tip in Greenville, thanks to the revenge motive from last year’s season-closing loss to the Pirates, a defeat that denied Tulane a winning season. In this series, Tulane has won and covered 9 of the last 14 matchups, but the Green Wave has dropped the last two contests against East Carolina under Jeff Lebo, the former Carolina Tar Heel guard. Lebo learned his lessons well from the legendary Dean Smith as a 4-year letterman at UNC and he’s made strides at East Carolina, but this unit is not over the hump yet, going just 2-7 SU this season against opponents with a .600 or greater win percentage. In addition, the Pirates are coming off a same-season revenger with Southern Miss and have Marshall – who pummeled them by 19 in January – waiting on deck in their Last Home Game. Two pretty evenly matched teams, but we’ll take the points and grab the Green with the avenging Wave. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tulane.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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George Washington at La SalleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: La SalleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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La Salle is adroitly navigating potential banana peels in the A-10 and staying on the safe side of the Big Dance cut line, thanks mainly to a stellar backcourt that was augmented by the mid-December addition of Virginia Tech transfer Tyrone Garland (12.1 ppg), who has emerged as loop's best six man. Coach Mike Lonergan's GWU (1-5 SU, 0-6 vs. the spread is last six) is losing altitude fast in the later stages of the season, and the Explorers already beat the Colonials by 9 at Foggy Bottom on Feb. 2, when six of HC John Giannini's charges scored in double figures. Play La Salle

Andy IskoeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego St. -12.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State closes out its home schedule seeking to avenge a 70-67 loss at Air Force on Groundhogs Day in which the Aztecs were 4 point road favorites. SDSU was in a letdown spot after their 55-34 blowout win over now-conference champ New Mexico a week earlier. The week between games showed rust in addition to the letdown spot. That win put Air Force at 5-2 in conference play but the Force has played poorly since, going 2-5 SU since (2-4-1 ATS) with 3 of the losses by a dozen points or more including a 15 point loss at weakling Fresno State (4-11 in Mountain West play). Meanwhile San Diego State has been dominant at home all season, winning 5 straight and going 13-1 SU overall on its home court (5-3-1 ATS) with 10 wins by at least 12 points (6 by more than 20 points). In winning 6 of 7 conference home games, SDSU has 3 wins by more than 20 points (including that 21 point rout of New Mexico). In looking to improve its NCAA Tournament seeding and not wanting to be swept in the season series, look for San Diego State to wear down Air Force and win by from 17 to 21 points.

Frank JordanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina vs. MarylandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: North CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two ACC foes come in pretty evenly matched as North Carolina is 21-8 and Maryland is 20-9, however in ACC play those numbers are far different with Maryland at just 8-8 while North Carolina is 11-5. Back on January 19th these two squads battled it out in Chapel Hill with the Tar Heels winning 62-52 with a big first half and holding on in the second. UNC is 9-3 since that game and Maryland is up and down at 6-5. Look for no love lost in this game between two old foes, but make it a season sweep for North Carolina as they beat up on the Terps early and often. Play North Carolina

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. PhoenixFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a never lost totals system that pertains to teams like Phoenix that have 3 or more days rest and scored 90 or more as a home dog in their last game, vs an opponent like Toronto that scored 110 or more as a road dog in their last game. These games have flown over Every time since 1995 and have averaged a whopping 220 points per game. Had the sample size been a littler large we would have unit rated this one. Toronto has flown over the last 5 times as a road favorite of 4 or less and 4 of the last 5 times on the road if they scored 100 or more on the road in their last game. In the series 4 of the last 5 here in Phoenix have played over the total. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

David Chan

Ottawa vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

Situational Analysis

Ottawa is coming off a 3-2 OT loss at the Islanders on Sunday. It was the third straight loss, and the Sens are struggling to put the biscuit in the basket.

Toronto is coming off a 4-2 win over New Jersey on Monday. Goaltender James Reimer has won two in a row. Reimer is a near perfect 5-1-1 with a 1.70 GAA vs. the Sens in his career.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Ottawa is 12-7-4 overall, but just 3-6-2 on the road. It's scored just four total goals to go 0-1-2 to start a five-game trip.

Note that Toronto is 4-1-0 in its last five in front of the home town crowd. The Leafs have scored at least four goals in the past three wins. Nazem Kadri has four goals and five assists during a five-game streak.

Pick Analysis

These teams have split two meetings this year. The Leafs won 3-0 at home on February 16th, before the Sens would return the favor in a 3-2 victory in Ottawa a week later. I believe this home ice advantage trend continues tonight, and that Toronto continues its excellent play of late. Consider laying the price!

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Michigan -6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I was surprised that Indiana lost to Ohio State but I will be shocked if the Wolverines follow that up with a loss on the road against Purdue. Michigan has already had their big slipup and Purdue is dead in the water. Plus the Hoosiers loss gives the Wolverines a shot at claiming a share of the Big Ten Championship with a win to close the season on the weekend. Michigan is a supremely talented team. Sure they are prone to losses but they could also beat the Boilermakers by 20 or more. They have already lost to Michigan by double digits this season and I expect they will again.

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Brooklyn at CharlotteFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brooklyn -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Charlotte Bobcats were the worst team in the NBA a year ago. They opened the season with a hopeful 7-5 start, but that was quickly exposed as an illusion. They have not won seven games since, and at 6-40 they are once again the doormat in the NBA. The latest streak is seven straight in the loss column both straight-up and ATS. This team has quit, losing 15 of 17 ATS. They aren't even close to competing, as evidenced by their last six games where they have lost by an NBA record 146 points. That losing margin breaks down to an average of -24.3 points per game. Until further notice, there is only one way to play this and that is against them. Go with Brooklyn.

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New Mexico at NevadaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: NevadaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will lose this game by eight or fewer points. It also projects a serious potential for a major upset so given that projection consider playing a 7* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. Nevada is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. In their previous game, New Mexico defeated Nevada by 13 points, 75-62 and pushed on the line. Nevada struggled hitting just 40.7%, but remained competitive. I strongly believe that Nevada will execute well enough to put a real score into the Lobos and possibly get a shocking upset. Further, Nevada is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points since 1997.