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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 6

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa State -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game means a lot more to the Cyclones than it does to the Cowboys. Iowa State has played great at home with a 15-1 record. This is also a revenge game for the Cyclones who blew a big lead late in the game and ended up losing by two points on the road against Oklahoma State back in January. The Cyclones know they are a bubble team right now and they need a strong finish in their last two games of the season. Playing at home is a huge advantage for Iowa State. They have a 7-3 ATS record as a home favorite and they have already proven they can play with Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are the better team even though their record may not reflect it. They have had trouble closing out games, but most of that trouble has come on the road. Playing on the comfort of their home court and trying to secure an NCAA Tournament bid should be more than enough to change the outcome of this conference showdown.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 12:24 pm
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LA Lakers -120 MLFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It comes down to this: The Lakers can't lose this game to the Hornets and expect to make the playoffs.
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It's a back-to-back spot for the Lakers and Kobe Bryant is hurting. But I see the Lakers sucking it up and beating the Hornets, a team they have dominated and own a huge talent edge against.
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The Hornets are 21-40, last in the Southwest Division. They dropped 15 of their last 17 to the Lakers, including the past nine. Los Angeles has won the past five times in New Orleans.
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The Hornets blew a 17-point second-half lead at home to Orlando, which ranks with Charlotte as the worst team in the NBA, in a 105-102 loss two nights ago. It was the Hornets' sixth loss in their last eight games. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 12:25 pm
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Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte BobcatsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brooklyn NetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nets have owned this series winning 5 in a row straight up and 4-1 ATS. Tonight Brooklyn makes it six straight wins. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Nets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play Nets

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 12:27 pm
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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan/ Purdue Under 133: The Wolverine defense has struggled on the road at times this year, as they allow 69.8 ppg away from home, but the Boilers are not all that great on offense, averaging just 64.4 ppg overall and 67.8 ppg at home. Purdue is also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the Big 10 (31.6%) and one of the worst from the charity stripe (63.2%), so I do expect this offense to struggle putting up points tonight. The Michigan offense does average 71.4 ppg on the road, but coming close to that mark may not be easy tonight vs a Purdue team that allows just 59.8 ppg on 38.2% shooting on their home floor. Michigan has also struggled from long range of late, hitting just 26.4% from downtown in their last 5 games and they shoot under 69% from the charity stripe on the road. I don't expect more than 65 from Michigan. Pace is also key here and Michigan is 244th in tempo, while Purdue is 166th, so this will not be a run and gun game. Hard to see this game hitting 130 points at all.
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Tennessee-Martin/ Morehead State Over 147.5: This should be a fast paced uptempo game as UT-Martin is 59th in the nation in tempo, while Morehead is 33rd. Some Morehead's stats are skewed in the last 6 games as OT has helped them have some higher scoring games. Still we note that their their last 6 games (Regulation) have averaged 156.5 ppg and they recently had a game vs Tenn State in which 201 points were scored without OT. UT-Martin has had no OT games of late and their last 7 games have averaged 154 ppg. Defense has not been a gameplan of these teams this year as UT-Martin has allowed 78 ppg overall and 79.4 ppg away from home, while Morehead State has allowed 73.7 ppg overall and 75.4 ppg away from home. Neither offense is great, but in an uptempo game with two horrid defenses on the court, I see no reason why we cant get this game in the 150's at least.
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SAN DIEGO STATE -12.5 over Air Force: The Falcons have been a superb team at home this year, but out on the road they are just 3-8 SU. In those 8 road losses they are 1-7 ATS and have been outscored by 17.1 ppg, while in their last 5 road losses they have gone 0-5 ATS and have been outscored by 18.8 ppg in those games. Bottom line there is that when this team loses on the road, they lose big. Now they have to travel to face a San Diego State squad that is 13-1 SU at home and has outscored their opponents by 16.6 ppg in each of their last 5 conference home wins. In those last 5 they beat Wyoming by 28 and New Mexico by 21 and certainly will have the horses in this one to win by at least 17 here. The Aztecs also have revenge on their minds for an earlier loss to the Falcons and the motivation of senior night is also there. This one has blowout written all over it.
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West Virginia/ Oklahoma Under 139: Back in January these teams hooked up and just 124 points were scored in that game. I don't expect much more than 130 in this one. Sure Oklahoma's last 5 games have averaged 162.8 ppg, but 2 of those games did go int OT and they did play 5 teams that are either uptempo or have bad defense. Well I don't don't expect an all out fast paced game as WVU plays at a pretty slow pace (240th) and they will look to slow it down to have any shot at winning this one. The Mountaineers average just 61.3 ppg on 38% shooting on the road this year and they haven't scored more than 66 points in their last 8 games overall. I don't expect more than the low 60's from them here, especially vs an Oklahoma defense that allows just 60.5 ppg on 39.1% shooting on their home floor. The Sooners do average 73.7 ppg at home, but I can sen them being held to 71 points or less vs a Mountaineer team that has allowed 70.7 ppg on the road. Im not really expecting an uptempo game and that should give us a 71-61 type of final.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 1:28 pm
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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Raptors -1½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Toronto Raptors are favored for a reason tonight. They are clearly the better team and I look for that to show tonight as they take down the overmatched Phoenix Suns.
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Few teams in the league have suffered as many close losses as these Raptors. That's why at 23-38, this team is clearly better than its record would indicate. Look for Toronto to come in highly motivated to put an end to its current 5-game losing streak.
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Phoenix comes in overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak. This team has a ton of injury issues right now with Gran Gragic (hip), Marcus Morris (toe), Markieff Morris (knee) and Jermane O'Neal (personal) all banged up.
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This play falls into a system that is 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (TORONTO) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more.
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Toronto is 29-13 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 5-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. The Suns are 10-19 ATS in all home games this season. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 1:29 pm
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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pacers will be lacking no motivation when they take the floor tonight. That's because they were embarrassed 94-75 at Boston in the season's first meeting. Consider that Indiana is on a 223-171 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It is on an 81-55 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. The Pacers have had two days of rest while Boston played last night so they should also be the fresher side. Keep in mind that Boston is a soft 19-34 ATS the last 3 seasons in the second game of a back-to-back. Indiana has been lights out at home where it is 25-6. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 11-18 on the road. The Pacers are 25-13 ATS this season when laying points, including 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lay the number.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 1:30 pm
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Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +141FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams are playing in their second of a back to back. The Avs were in Detroit last night losing 2-1, while the Blackhawks were at home and won 5-3 against Minnesota to extend their record to 23 games with getting at least one point to start the season. The Blackhawks have won 10 straight and are now an unbelievable 20-0-3 and 10-0-1 at home. The loss for Colorado makes them just 1-5 in their last 6 games. In those 5 losses they scored just 8 goals. The Avs are 8-9-4 on the year, and are just 2-7-3 on the road. Semyon Varlamov will be in net tonight and he is 6-8-3 with a 2.79 GAA and .910 SV%. Ray Emery will go for Chicago and he has yet to lose this season with a 9-0 record, 2.02 GAA and .926 SV%. Take note that Chicago is 4th in the NHL with 3.13 goals per game, while Colorado is 24th with 2.38 goals per game. Chicago is also 1st in goals against per game with a 1.78 goals against per game average, while Colorado is 19th giving up 2.90 goals per game. The Avs are 3-13 in their last 16 road games dating back to last season, and 14-37 when playing on 0 days rest. The Blackhawks are 42-18 on 0 days rest, 35-16 in their last 51 home games, and 21-5 in their last 26 vs Western Conference opponents. Chicago is a much better team and it goes without saying that they are playing great hockey right now. I'm taking the Blackhawks to win by 2 or more at home.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 2:01 pm
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Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lakers -2 over Hornets
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As bad as the Lakers are on the road its hard to convince me that the Hornets are not the worst team in the west. Its also hard to convince me that the Lakers wont make their way into the 8th spot in the playoffs. The Lakers have the experience to make it happen. Take the Lakers.
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Georgetown +1 over VillanovaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a line made because of how well Nova has played at home in the past. This is a young Villanova team that just is not that talented. Georgetown is better from top to bottom. This game will be closer than the earlier meeting this year, but when picking a winner I will take Gtown every single time. Take Georgetown

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 3:34 pm
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Hollywood Sports

Houston at Dallas
Prediction: Over

This is the second game of the home-and-home series between these two teams after Houston (33-28) blew out the Mavericks by a 136-103 score. The Rockets have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against an opponent that scored at least 100 points, the Rockets have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Dallas (26-33) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 125 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games back on their home court, Dallas has played 7 of these games Over the Total. Take the Over in this one.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:15 pm
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Hollywood Sports

Houston at Dallas
Prediction: Over

This is the second game of the home-and-home series between these two teams after Houston (33-28) blew out the Mavericks by a 136-103 score. The Rockets have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against an opponent that scored at least 100 points, the Rockets have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Dallas (26-33) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 125 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games back on their home court, Dallas has played 7 of these games Over the Total. Take the Over in this one.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:15 pm
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Joe Gavazzi

New Mexico -8½

In this matchup, Steve Alford’s Lobos make their case for a #1 seed. You read it right – the MWC is rated as the toughest league in the country, and the Lobos sit on top with a 12-2 conference log having already clinched the title. Their SOS and 17-4 SU mark against the top 100 RPI teams have lifted them to #2 in those prestigious RPI rankings. Certainly there is a stronger case for Lobos to get a #1 seed than Gonzaga (RPI 9), who plays in weaker WCC. Tonight’s opponent for the Lobos has tossed the towel till conference tourney play begins. The Wolfpack enters on a 0-5 SU run with four of those losses by 13 or more points. Burton and Story are their strength at guard but there is little interior prowess as indicated by their negative rebound margin. Despite LHG motivations the Wolfpack may be waiting for the CCT. Far prefer Alford’s gawdy numbers which included 36-10 ATS / consecutive 10 point wins, 47-12 ATS following consecutive games in which he allowed 65 or less points, and 35-14 ATS as a favorite. Having already defeated Nevada by 13 points at The Pit, consider that mid-range road favorites are 114-54 ATS to sweep vs opposing home teams off three or more consecutive home losses.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:16 pm
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Larry Ness

North Carolina vs. Maryland
Pick: Maryland

North Carolina lost its entire frontcourt, Barnes (17.1-5.2), Zeller (16.3-9.6) and Henson (13.7-9.9) plus PG Marshall (8.1-9.8 APG) from last year (all 1st-round NBA picks). However, the cupboard is never bare at Chapel Hill and a switch to a four-guard lineup by Roy Williams has sparked a five-game winning streak (six straight ATS wins) and “locked up” an at-large bid for the Tar Heels. The 6-9 McAdoo (14.8-8.0) has led in scoring all season but is now followed closely by 6-7 swingman Bullock (14.2-6.2) and PJ Hairston (13.3-4.0), who has been moved into the starting lineup. The other two starters are Strickland (7.9-4.0 APG) and freshman Paige (7.7-4.6 APG). Veteran guard McDonald (7.6) and 6-9 freshman Johnson (6.4-3.6) round out Williams’ seven-man rotation. While the Tar Heels have already all put ‘punched’ their “Big Dance ticket,” the Terps are clearly “on the bubble,” at 20-9 (just 8-8 in ACC play). Maryland finishes its regular season Sunday at Virginia and the Terps sure can’t expect to win that one (lost 80-69 to the Cavs). That means, a loss here and Maryland will likely finish at 8-10 in ACC play, NOT a good position to be in. Maryland is a balanced team with nine players appearing in all 29 games (averaging between 4.5 and 12.0 PPG) and PG Howard (3.3-2.4-3.9) missing just two games. Maryland’s top scorers are 6-5 swingman Wells (12.0-4.5-3.2) and the 7-1 Len (12.0-8.1), who has the attention of most NBA observers. These schools met Jan 19 in Chapel Hill and the Tar Heels won 62-52, led by Bullock’s 24 points and McAdoo’s 19 & 11. Neither team shot well (both under 40%) but Maryland ‘killed itself’ by going 1-of-12 from three-point range. This is really a “must win” spot for the Terps but the situation is NOT bad. The Tar Heels have to KNOW “they’re in,” while the Terps can gain confidence from their 16-2 SU mark in College Park, which includes wins over Duke and NC St. Add North Carolina to that list.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:18 pm
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Dave Essler

Duquesne +3

Certainly this one looks like perhaps Marshall did last night. I don't get how a team that's lost as many recently as Charlotte has can really be a road favorite over anyone in their last home game. Now, I get that Duquesne isn't very good. But let's look at Charlotte for a minute. They've been getting hammered, and here's why. DeMario Mafeild was at one time their leading scorer. He has been indefinitely suspended. JT Thompson was injured and is out for the season. When did all this happen? Right around the time this losing streak started, and they haven't been losing, they've been getting massacred. That also means a lot more playing time for THREE Freshman, and tonight they try to do it on the road, right before THEIR last home game Saturday against St. Josephs. Certainly the focus cannot be there.

As far as Duquesne is concerned, they were manhandled from the word "go" at LaSalle. Well, they were minus a couple of players, as Martins Abele was suspended for a game. He's not a big minutes guy, but he's a big guy at 7'1". When he's able (no pun intended) to play 15 minutes a game as he was earlier in the season, this is a team that beat West Virginia, JMU, and App State on the road. Even without he and Mamadou Datt (another role player) this is a Duquesne team that went to Temple and beat them, so the potential is there. At the pace this game will be played (uber-fast) there is no way we could back Charlotte, with a thin bench and young, on the road, against the last home game. The 49ers are moving to C-USA next year, yet another motivation for Duquesne, and Charlotte's opponents have averaged over 84 points in the last four games. This one, too me, looks like a "we gotta play one more road game" against a team saying "we got a chance to win a game", especially with the potential for travel issues in the Northeast. Simply cannot be a good thing for Charlotte.

We're thinking Duquesne wins this game, and will gladly take the possession. Ten of their 20 losses (ouch) have come against teams ranked in the Top 100 in the RPI.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:19 pm
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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Brooklyn -9 over CHARLOTTE: This Charlotte team is horrible right now and coming off a 4 game west coast trip to face a desperate Nets squad that is rested and an off BB losses is not the best situational spot for these Bobcats. Charlotte has lost their last 7 in a row, but the last 6 have been just plain horrible as they lost by at least 14 in each game and have been outscored by 24.8 ppg over that stretch. They really don't look ike they are on the verge of even being competitive right now and they could even lose to a few college teams at this point. The Nets are not a college team and they are fighting for the Atlantic Division crown and coming off BB loss you have to feel that they will look to pound this weak team tonight. The Nets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 meetings vs the Bobcats and have won those 4 games by at least 10 each, including a 16 point win over Charlotte back in December when the Bobcats were playing much better. Nets by at least 15 here.

LA Lakers -2 over NEW ORLEANS: I know that the Lakers have struggled on the road this year, but this is a team that seems to be focused right now and they also have a decent shot at making it to the playoffs. LA has gone 10-5 in their last 5 games and they are 7-0 SU in games vs sub .500 teams over that stretch. New Orleans is clearly under .500 as they stand at 21-40 on the year and are just 11-19 at home. The Hornets have won just 2 of their last 8 games overall and they have lost their last 7 games in a row to the Lakers, including both meetings this year. The Lakers won back here in early December when they were not playing so hot at all and now they are playing with a purpose and with fire and should be able to easily take out the Hornets in this one.

Miami/ Orlando Under 203.5: One of the things i have done this year is to take the UNDER in games when Miami plays a shitty team and that's what we have tonight. You would think that when the Heat take on a team that they totally outclass that they would pile on the points, but these seem to be the games that they do enough on offense to win the game, while letting their defense do the rest. In games where Miami is a double digit favorite they have averaged just 101.7 ppg, with those games putting up just 197.7 ppg. Now for Orlando, when they have been a DD dog they just do't score a whole lot, averaging just 93 ppg, while their defense is not overly bad in those games, having allowed just 100.3 ppg. This has the feel of the Heats last game as they were big road faves over Minnesota and won by a 99-81 score. Their offense din't explode on the T-Wolves and I don't expect them to here either as they will once again take the night off offensively and just let their defense do most of the work.

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:29 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

St. Bonaventure +7½ over DAYTON

It’s senior’s night at the University of Dayton and what that entails is a ceremony before tipoff to honor two players, Josh Benson and Kevin Dillard, who will both play their final home game for the Flyers. It also means that the focus on the actual game, which means little to begin with, takes a backseat to the ceremony. Even at its best, in a favorable situation, Dayton would have a tough time covering this number against the Bonnies.

The Bonnies have won three straight and four of their last six. The two defeats were in OT. They’re the defending A-10 tourney champions and they’re playing like it as of late. St. Bonaventure is also one of the best free-throw shooting clubs in the nation. It hit 32 of 33 free throws in its last game against Charlotte, when they hung up 104 points. The Bonnies are on a roll and they've been an undervalued commodity in recent weeks, notching six consecutive point-spread covers coming into these final two games. We’re not asking them to win here. We’re asking them to hang around against a club below them in the standings and less talented on the court. Not a stretch by any imagination.

DUQUESNE +116 over Charlotte

It’s not easy to pull the trigger on a Duquesne team that is 1-13 in conference play but the Charlotte 49ers may have less motivation than any team in the A-10 or the entire country for that matter. We’re not going to say that the Dukes have been competitive or on the verge of improving. What we will suggest is that no team wants to end their season with one win in conference play and a big fat zero on its home court. That’s what’s facing Duquesne tonight and they won’t go down easy while the 49ers are likely to show up in body only.

The 49ers have endured a bevy of injuries, suspensions and rotation changes this season and it's taken its toll. Since Charlotte’s 15-2 start (largely the result of a weak nonconference slate), Alan Major's squad has lost four in a row and seven of its past nine. There's been a lot of talk in Charlotte about a lack of leadership, both on and off the floor, following consecutive 19-plus-point blowout losses at home to Dayton and Temple and at St. Bonnies this past weekend. The 49ers close out the season (and it can’t come soon enough for them) at home against St. Joe’s on Saturday, making this meaningless affair nothing more than a big inconvenience for this mentally beaten down traveler.

Pass NBA & NHL

 
Posted : March 6, 2013 4:30 pm
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