Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday March, 7

NCAAB

Pittsburgh vs. Georgetown
The Hoyas look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 neutral site games. Georgetown is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5)

Game 627-628: Connecticut vs. West Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 67.550; West Virginia 64.145
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 1; 130
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-1); Under

Game 629-630: Pittsburgh vs. Georgetown (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 61.929; Georgetown 69.249
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 7 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5); Over

Game 631-632: Seton Hall vs. Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 64.022; Louisville 65.042
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1; 140
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick N/A

Game 633-634: Villanova vs. South Florida (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 60.915; South Florida 68.144
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 7; 106
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 635-636: East Carolina vs. Rice (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 56.675; Rice 56.423
Dunkel Line: Even; 139
Vegas Line: Rice by 1; 134
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+1); Over

Game 637-638: SMU vs. Marshall (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 51.806; Marshall 61.144
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 9 1/2; 113
Vegas Line: Marshall by 7; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-7); Under

Game 639-640: Houston vs. UTEP (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 52.516; UTEP 57.898
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 5 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: UTEP by 3; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-3); Over

Game 641-642: Tulane vs. UAB (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 51.116; UAB 56.700
Dunkel Line: UAB by 5 1/2; 112
Vegas Line: UAB by 7; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+7); Under

Game 643-644: Oregon State vs. Washington State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 60.164; Washington State 58.082
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 2; 144
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 4; 147
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+4); Under

Game 645-646: USC at UCLA (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 52.595; UCLA 64.068
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2; 115
Vegas Line: UCLA by 13; 113 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (+13); Over

Game 647-648: Arizona State vs. Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 54.965; Stanford 63.531
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 8 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Stanford by 10; 124
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+10); Under

Game 649-650: Utah vs. Colorado (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 46.775; Colorado 61.631
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 15; 122
Vegas Line: Colorado by 12 1/2; 119
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-12 1/2); Over

Game 651-652: Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 41.232; Western Michigan 52.068
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 11; 123
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 9 1/2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-9 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Central Michigan vs. Toledo (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 49.551; Toledo 52.105
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 2 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Toledo by 4; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+4); Over

Game 655-656: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 60.694; Oklahoma 60.752
Dunkel Line: Even; 127
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+2); Over

Game 657-658: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 51.850; Oklahoma State 60.756
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 9; 120
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 8; 123
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-8); Under

Game 659-660: Weber State at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 55.549; Montana 65.534
Dunkel Line: Montana by 10; 137
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 661-662: Sam Houston State vs. Stephen F. Austin (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sam Houston State 47.288; Stephen F. Austin 56.733
Dunkel Line: Stephen F. Austin by 9 1/2; 102
Vegas Line: Stephen F. Austin by 7 1/2; 107
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (-7 1/2); Under

Game 663-664: Northwestern State vs. Lamar (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern State 50.340; Lamar 55.757
Dunkel Line: Lamar by 5 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Lamar by 9; 143
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern State (+9); Under

Game 665-666: Nicholls State vs. TX-Arlington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 36.109; TX-Arlington 56.265
Dunkel Line: TX-Arlington by 20; 153
Vegas Line: TX-Arlington by 16; 147
Dunkel Pick: TX-Arlington (-16); Over

Game 667-668: TX-San Antonio vs. McNeese State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 49.210; McNeese State 49.026
Dunkel Line: Even; 131
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 2; 133
Dunkel Pick: McNeese State (+2); Under

Game 669-670: Alabama A&M vs. Texas Southern (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama A&M 36.125; Texas Southern 42.888
Dunkel Line: Texas Southern by 7; 129
Vegas Line: Texas Southern by 6; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Southern (-6); Over

Game 671-672: Jackson State vs. Mississippi Valley State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 34.684; Mississippi Valley State 43.241
Dunkel Line: Mississippi Valley State by 8 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Mississippi Valley State by 10; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jackson State (+10); Under

Game 673-674: Hampton vs. Savannah State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 43.174; Savannah State 55.001
Dunkel Line: Savannah State by 12; 132
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 675-676: Howard vs. Norfolk State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Howard 40.048; Norfolk State 47.963
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 8; 133
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 677-678: Robert Morris at Long Island (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 55.000; Long Island 54.274
Dunkel Line: Robert Morris by 1; 147
Vegas Line: Long Island by 1; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+1); Under

Game 679-680: Lehigh at Bucknell (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 57.797; Bucknell 62.520
Dunkel Line: Bucknell by 4 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Bucknell by 4; 128
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (-4); Over

Marc Lawrence

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Yes, the postseason Promised Land has been nothing more than a mirage for Golden State as they've reached the playoffs just once in the last 17-plus years. And with a 15-20 record entering tonight's contest, they've got a long way to go if they hope to make good on preseason playoff promises made by owner Joe Lacob and coach Mark Jackson. We all know such promises are usually as empty and motive driven as a politician's head but Golden State's postseason failures won't keep us from cashing a ticket or two with the Warriors when the time is right. This looks like one of those times: the Grizzlies have knocked off the Warriors twice this season and our database tells us that greater than .400 teams seeking same-season double revenge exact against Memphis are 20-7 SU and 18-9 ATS. Staying within those parameters, we see that the Grizz are a horrible 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS on the road versus greater than .400 foes this year while the Warriors counter with a recent 15-9 ATS effort versus opponents who win more than 40 percent of their games. Thrilled to be back home after a grueling 5-game East Coast journey, Golden State should improve its season record versus Southwest Division foes to 4-1 ATS. Revenge rears its head in Oracle Arena tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Marc Lawrence

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Yes, the postseason Promised Land has been nothing more than a mirage for Golden State as they've reached the playoffs just once in the last 17-plus years. And with a 15-20 record entering tonight's contest, they've got a long way to go if they hope to make good on preseason playoff promises made by owner Joe Lacob and coach Mark Jackson. We all know such promises are usually as empty and motive driven as a politician's head but Golden State's postseason failures won't keep us from cashing a ticket or two with the Warriors when the time is right. This looks like one of those times: the Grizzlies have knocked off the Warriors twice this season and our database tells us that greater than .400 teams seeking same-season double revenge exact against Memphis are 20-7 SU and 18-9 ATS. Staying within those parameters, we see that the Grizz are a horrible 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS on the road versus greater than .400 foes this year while the Warriors counter with a recent 15-9 ATS effort versus opponents who win more than 40 percent of their games. Thrilled to be back home after a grueling 5-game East Coast journey, Golden State should improve its season record versus Southwest Division foes to 4-1 ATS. Revenge rears its head in Oracle Arena tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Matt Fargo

Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

Phoenix has won five of its last six games to move to three games under .500 and well as three game out of the eighth position in the Western Conference playoff standings. It is too late however as a very slow start held the Suns back and catching the five teams in front of them for the postseason is very unlikely. It has been a great run but take note that all six of those games took place at home where it is a respectable 10-9. After this, Phoenix heads home for four more games starting Thursday. Oklahoma City is coming off a win over Dallas on Monday to improve to 30-8 which is the second best record in the NBA. The Thunder lead the Western Conference by 4.5 games over San Antonio so the cushion is pretty big and even though there is a lot of basketball left, getting that overall best record is still a goal so there will be no letting up. Their 16-1 record at home is the best in basketball and with home games against Cleveland and Charlotte coming up, there is no chance of a lookahead. Overall the Thunder have won eight of their last nine games and they have put together this great start to the season by playing the NBA's ninth toughest schedule. Their 10 wins over the top ten are tied for most in the league and when playing the bottom half they have obviously been better, going 14-2. Phoenix has been good against the bad teams but it has really struggled against the NBA elite, going just 3-10 against teams ranked in the top ten. This includes a 0-8 record on the road. The Suns have been on a solid ATS roll, but again, all of those games were at home. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after covering five or six of their last seven games while going 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. Oklahoma City won the first meeting this season by 10 points at home but that doesn't bode well for the Suns which are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games revenging a double-digit road loss.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston vs. Philadelphia
Play: Under 177.5

This game fits the totals system below which has cashed 12 of the last 13 times to the under since 2004. We want to go under for home favorites with 1 day of rest line Philly if they has a prior total of 180 or higher and scored 90 or more points on the road , vs an opponent like Boston that played their last game at home. The Sixers have shot under 40% the last 2 and have gone under all 8 times off a straight up favored loss, this season 16 of 22 at home, 21 of 29 times when favored. In the series 3 of the past 4 have played under. Look for a low score bore tonight.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto is 30-29-7 (14-16-2 on the road). Pittsburgh is 39-21-5 (21-8-2 at home). The last time these played, the Leafs won 1-0 in Toronto on February 1st, 2012.

Pens captain Sidney Crosby remains out, but it sure hasn't mattered of late, as Pittsburgh has won six-straight.

That's bad news for a stumbling Leafs team that will likely be without forward Joffrey Lupul.

Pittsburgh has been the beneficiary of fantastic goaltending during its run; Marc-Andre Fleury made 36-saves in a 2-1 win over Phoenix on Monday (note that he's 5-1-1 in his last seven starts vs. Toronto).

Evgeni Malkin has been unstoppable, scoring 21 times and adding 15-assists during his team's 18-4-1 run since mid-January.

Toronto continue's its free-fall, having dropped 11 of its last 13. Last night it lost 5-4 to Boston.

Goaltender James Reimer is expected to get the start in net in the second game of the back to back; Reimer would be wise to keep his eyes on Malkin, as the talented Pens forward has nine-goals and 29-assists lifetime vs Toronto.

In this matchup of David vs. Goliath, Goliath exploits all of his advantages and kicks this struggling Leafs team while it's down.

Lay it!

Ben Burns

New Orleans @ Sacramento
PICK: Over 192

The Hornets are off a very low-scoring (86-74) loss at Portland. However, even with that result, the "over" is still 5-2-1 their last eight games. Those stats should have a solid shot at improving this evening.

After the poor offensive effort against Portland, New Orleans coach Monty Williams emphasized that an improved offensive effort by his guards was necessary: "A lot of that goes on our guards. They have to be able to get us into offense."

Facing a defensively-challenged Sacramento team should help. The Kings are giving up an average of 106.8 points their last five games, scoring 102.8 themselves. For the season, they're allowing 102.7 per game. That happens to be the worst in the entire league.

While the Hornets aren't a big scoring team, they do actually score more, while also giving up more, on the road than they do at home.

Additionally, as far as the Hornets being a low-scoring team, note that the "over" is 7-3 the last 10 times that the Kings faced an opponent which averages 91 or fewer points per game. When given a chance to go up against a "less than dominant defense," those poor offensive teams seemingly like to make the most of it.

The Hornets lost 100-92 at home against Sacramento last month. That dropped them to 0-2 against the Kings this season. That's noteworthy as we find the 'over' at 7-4 the last 11 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss.

With games here averaging 198.7 points on the season, eight of 14 (57%) finishing above the number, consider a play on the OVER.

Stephen Nover

Cleveland @ Denver
PICK: Denver -9.5

Here come the Nuggets. Healthy again and playing well, Denver has won four in a row getting back into the wide-open Western Conference playoff picture.

The Nuggets had their flat game this past Monday, nipping the lowly Kings in overtime at home. That victory followed impressive road wins at Houston last Friday and San Antonio this past Sunday.

Don't expect another flat performance from the Nuggets after the Sacramento scare. Denver doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts another bad team, New Orleans. So there is no look-ahead distraction.

The big news for Denver against the Kings was the return of leading scorer Danilo Gallinari and top rebounder Nene. Gallinari had missed 13 games with a foot injury, while Nene had sat out 10 games due to a strained calf.

The Nuggets average 11 points more per game than Cleveland and are at home. This explains the lopsided point spread. But it doesn't completely show why the Nuggets will bury the Cavaliers and cover this large number.

After some early promise and good efforts, the Cavaliers are back to their bottom feeding ways. They have dropped six in a row, giving up nearly 103 points during this stretch.

Cleveland hits the road after a nine-point home loss to Utah, a horrendous road team at 4-13. The final score wasn't indicative of how bad the Cavaliers played as they trailed Utah by 17 points at one point.

Aside from rookie Kyrie Irving and the gallant Antawn Jamison, the Cavaliers have no scoring and their rebounding has gone soft with Anderson Varejao out. The Jazz outrebounded the Cavaliers, 46-30.

Denver is a very difficult opponent for the Cavaliers to face because the Nuggets can push tempo and are multi-faced, with a deep roster and many interchangeable parts. Their fast-paced style, directed by lightening-quick point guard Ty Lawson, is even more effective in the high altitude of Denver.

It takes not only a physically tough team to hang with the Nuggets in the mountains, but a mentally strong one, too. The Cavaliers aren't that.

The Nuggets have the motivation to run the Cavaliers out of the gym as they get their confidence back and jump into the Western Conference playoff chase. Their excellent bench also keeps the backdoor shut for the Cavaliers.

Freddy Wills

Robert Morris vs. Long Island
Play: Robert Morris +1

Morris to me despite the worse conference record is the better team because they play defense. However, I think they win this game with their relentless pressure defense that has forced 15.6 turnovers and 8.5 steals per game. They forced 19 and 11 steals in the first match up. LIU is prone to turning the ball over 16.1 times a game and they'll also be at a considerable disadvantage on the offensive boards leading to second chance opportunities for Morris. Morris is +4.5 offensive rebounds on the season and LIU is -2.1. Expect that to play a critical role in a tight game. LIU is hosting so tons of public has flocked to take them but I stand by the better team in this one.

Jim Feist

Tulane vs UAB
Pick: UAB

C-USA tourney opens here and Tulane is terrible, 8-23 ATS in their last 31 vs. Conference USA. And they are playing their worst basketball at the most important time of the season, on a 0-6 SU/ATS run. The UAB Blazers are led by senior forward Cameron Moore, who tops the league in rebounding (10.4) and ranks third in scoring (16.2). They are on a 4-1 S/ATS run and 4-0 ATS the last four meetings with Tulane. UAB (14-15, 9-7) defeated Tulane (15-15, 3-13), 81-73, back on Feb. 18 in Bartow Arena and will again. Play UAB!

Dave Cokin

USC vs UCLA
Pick: UCLA

Give UCLA credit. They seem to have come together as a team since the SI story broke and that makes the Bruins a force to be reckoned with in this tournament. USC has been as ugly as it gets all season and see no reason for a sudden burst of energy from this awful team. UCLA should win this by a bunch.

EZWINNERS

Oklahoma Sooners -1

Romero Osby scored a career high 24 points as the Sooners held off Texas A&M for a 65-62 last Saturday in the preview of this first round Big 12 tournament game. Oklahoma held a fourteen point lead in the second half before the Aggies made their run. I expect the Sooners to win the rematch here as well. Texas A&M had some high hopes this season, but they have really struggled. The Aggies have lost five straight games and nine out of their last ten as they enter the Big XII tournament. The Aggies are 0-5 against the spread in their last five neutral site games and I look for their miserable season to come to an end here. Play on OU.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

UConn -1 over West Virginia: Calhoun is back at the helm for the Huskies and they seem to be really inspired right now. In their last 2 games they have averaged 77.5 ppg and have held their opponents to just 66 ppg on 41.6% shooting. West Virginia may have scored 92 points vs Depaul 2 games ago, but they have still averaged just 62.4 ppg in their last 5 games. They have stepped it up defensively as they have held their last 5 opponents to just 59.8 ppg, but on a kind of high 45.9% shooting. I don't expect the Huskies to run the table in the Big East tournament like last year, but they are playing well enough right now to take care of a West Virginia squad that just hasn't been right down the stretch.

SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO +115 over Houston

As a 9½-point pooch in the first game back after the all-star break, the Raps went into Houston and lost by three. Toronto covered that game and has covered every game since (7 straight), making them one of the most profitable betting teams in the Association. They keep improving and have alternated wins over its past six game. The Raps have just enough ability to compete with second and third-tiered clubs and they certainly can beat teams like Houston when put in a favourable position. Houston comes in off back-to-back OT losses to the Clippers on Sunday and in Boston last night. This is its third game in four days after those two OT losses. The Rockets have also dropped four straight to fall to 21-18 overall and while they'll come in hungry for a win, they may not muster up the required energy for this task. The host is 7-1-1 in this series and under these conditions, the home team domination is likely to continue. Play: Toronto +115 (Risking 2 units).

SAN ANTONIO -7 over New York

At first glance, this appears to be an abundance of points to be taking but looks can be deceiving. Since Linsanity arrived on the scene, the Knicks have been the most wagered on team in the NBA. Night in and night out that continues and with 13 games on the slate tonight, this one will also attract an awful lot of action. Knicks backers beware. The oddsmakers are well aware of New York’s current popularity and the carrot being dangled here could certainly be set in a trap. The Knicks have four wins in 12 tries in the second game of back-to-backs. They played in Dallas last night, losing by 10. They also lost in OT on Sunday. Three of the Knicks last four games have come against Dallas, Boston and Miami. Meanwhile, the Spurs and their 14-3 home record have been off for two full days. On two days rest, San Antonio is a perfect 3-0. What's also noteworthy is all three of those previous games on two full days rest were on the road. This one is at home after a Spurs straight up loss. This one could get away in a hurry. Play: San Antonio -7 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

CHARLOTTE +7½ over Utah

The Bobcats are coming off their most impressive win of the season last night, a 16-point victory over the Magic. That comes as a huge relief and takes some weight off their shoulders after the team had just four wins in their previous 34 games. An impressive win like that one does wonders for team psyche. That aside, this one is more about wagering against the Jazz as a significant road favorite. The Jazz are among the worst traveling teams in the NBA. They have four road wins in 17 games and they're coming off a nine-point road win in Cleveland. Asking this team to win back-to-back road games by eight or more is a tall task indeed. Also consider that the Jazz are coming off games against Miami and Dallas in which intensity levels were high. They beat the Heat in what had to be considered their biggest win in years. Up next on this trip are games in Philly and Chicago and this is one in which they can certainly be caught napping. Upset possibility. Play: Charlotte +7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Texas Tech +8 over Oklahoma State

When you wager against the Red Raiders and their 1-17 conference record you're going to pay a premium to do so and that’s just not good business. The Big-12 tournament tips off here and they'll play this one on a neutral court in Kansas City. Every team has a fresh start now. The Red Raiders’ only Big 12 win came on Feb. 11 against Oklahoma. Billy Gillispie’s squad is improving though and could threaten to upset an Oklahoma State team that will be without star freshman Le'Bryan Nash. For a team that is short on talent to begin with, it's a loss that will be felt. The Cowboys have lost six of their last eight games with only wins coming against Texas A&M and Texas. Both of those were played in the Cowboys home arena and therefore asking this struggling favorite to lay an inflated number might be asking a bit too much. The Red Raiders have nothing to lose. Play: Texas Tech +8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).