Hollywood Sports
Tulane at UAB
Play: UAB
The Blazers (14-15) are in bounce-back mode entering the Conference USA tournament after their 71-63 loss at Central Florida last Saturday as a 5-point underdog which snapped their four-game winning streak. UAB is a reliable 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up defeat. Mike Davis' team has also rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Led by senior forward Cameron Moore who averages a double-double this season (16.2 PPP, 10.4 RPG), the Blazers have a player that can take over the game anytime he is on the court. UAB takes care of business in spots like this as well as they have covered 8 of their last 10 games as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range. Tulane (15-15) has lost seven games in a row after their 66-49 loss to East Carolina on Saturday as a 3-point favorite. The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Tulane has also now failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, in the last 21 games that the Green Wave have been an underdog, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these occasions. The deeper metrics suggest that Tulane will not be able to stay competitive with UAB on a neutral court. The Green Wave were not only last in Conference USA with a 3-13 record, they also were last in the conference with their net Efficiency Margin of -0.11 Points-Per-Possession (Offensive PPP: 0.94; Defensive PPP: 1.05) against conference opponents. UAB, on the other hand, had a 9-7 record in the conference while sporting a net Efficiency Margin of 0.00 (Offensive PPP: 0.99; Defensive PPP: 0.99). Tulane has lost eight straight games against UAB while failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight meetings with the Blazers. Lay the points with UAB in this one.
Vegas Experts
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves
Revenge can be a useful handicapping tool, but sometimes the market over adjusts and you need to look in the other direction. Such is the case this evening when Minnesota hosts Portland. The T'wolves scored 122 points in road win Saturday night over the Blazers as Kevin Love went for a career high 42 points. Don't like Portland in the quick re-hook as they are 0-9 ATS this season when the betting line is three points or less and 0-7 ATS when on the road and off a double digit win (beat New Orleans Monday).
Bryan Power
Portland @ Minnesota
PICK: Minnesota -1
The Timberwolves remain undervalued in the marketplace. They are coming off a win over the Clippers and the game before that dropped a season high 122 on this Blazers team. Tonight, they find themselves as just as short favorite against a Blazers team whose lone win over the last four games came at the expense of a horrible New Orleans squad. Portland is 0-9 ATS this season when the line is +3 to -3. They are also 7-17 ATS the L24 times it has been a road dog of 6 pts or less. The news keeps getting worse as they are 0-7 ATS on the road off a double digit win. They are 1-11 ATS seeking revenge for a loss where the opponent scored 110+ points. Kevin Love went for a career high 42 points in Saturday's matchup.
NHL Predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +150
The Leafs lost last night at home 5-4 to the Bruins, which marks their 11th lost in 13 games. Throughout those 13 games the Leafs have had a ton of struggles keeping the puck out of their net, which has bumped their overall goals against to 3.08 per game. Over their last 5 games the Leafs are allowing 4 goals against per game. That isn’t good news for a team who is facing the Pittsburgh Penguins who are averaging 4.60 goals per game over their last 5. The Penguins have won 6 straight games heading into tonight’s game, including 4 games that were by at least 2 goals. The Maple Leafs are 30-29-7 on the season, while the Penguins are 39-21-5 overall and a solid 21-8-2 on home ice. If you look at the Leafs recent big slump you will notice that their only two wins have come against the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in the NHL. To make matters worse for the Maple Leafs they will most likely be without one of their best scoring forwards in Joffrey Lupul and Colby Armstrong is also doubtful. James Reimer is expected to get the nod tonight, and he has allowed less than 3 goals just once in his last 8 starts, which hasn’t helped his 3.07 GAA and .899 SV%. Fleury should be in net for Pittsburgh and he has been great lately allowing 1 or less goals in 4 of his last 5 starts, which includes a shutout. Tonight we get one of the NHL’s best teams at home versus a heavily struggling Maple Leafs that is now facing some more injury troubles. I like the Penguins to win by a couple tonight and like the value we have at +150. Take the Pens by 2 or more.
Free NBA release for 3/7: Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat UNDER 189 points. With both teams playing just last night, the under is showing excellent value here. Both clubs have been playing solid defense of late as well. Atlanta's opponents have been sinking just 40.2% of their shots, as they're allowing only 88.6 points/game over their last five. And the Heat have been holding their opponents to just 90.2 points/game on 42.9% shooting. We're expecting to see a defensive battle, and a little bit of a slower pace with the tired legs in this game. The under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 overall, and 5-1 in their last six after scoring triple digits the last time out. The under is 6-2-1 in the Heats last 9 overall, and 5-1 in their last 6 at home. Also, the under has cashed 9 of the last 10 times the Heat hosted this series. We'll take the under 189 points in Miami tonight. Our free plays are 173-93-1 all-time (65%), and 3-0 in their last three. Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to receive the best free basketball & hockey picks via email. Thank you, and best of luck.
WUNDERDOG
Pittsburgh vs. Georgetown
Pick: Pittsburgh +5
The Pittsburgh Panthers are a team that underachieved all season long. They lost point guard Trey Woodall for some key games and the team simply has not been the same without him. Ashton Gibbs had a horrible shooting year at just 38% and 3% from the three point range, but stepped up with 20 points in the tournament opener, while Woodall dished out six assists. Georgetown is a team that over-achieved during the regular season and was wilting a bit down the stretch as four of their seven losses were in their last ten games. The Panthers have always toughed it out as a dog where they are 20-7 ATS in their last 27, while the Hoyas are struggling lately vs. winning teams at just 4-9 ATS in their last 13. Pitt is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and have the ability here to win this one down the stretch. Play on Pittsburgh.
Jack Jones
New York Knicks +7
The New York Knicks were only a 2-point underdog at Dallas last night, the defending world champions. While I took the Mavericks last night, I'm going to back the Knicks tonight in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire. San Antonio is way overvalued in this spot and should not be favored by 7 if Dallas was only favored by 2.
Jeremy Lin and Carmelo Anthony went a combined 6-of-25 shooting last night for 20 points. Yet the Knicks actually held a lead midway through the final period until Dallas managed to pull away late in the fourth quarter. There's no way these two stars will have another big off night.
San Antonio is no longer a great defensive team. The Spurs are giving up 95.1 points/game overall on 45.2 percent shooting. To compare, the Knicks give up 94.9 points on 44.2 percent shooting. New York has actually put more effort into the defensive end this season. A big reason for that is the addition of Tyson Chandler, who will be able to keep Tim Duncan in check.
The Knicks are a brilliant 10-1 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. New York is 25-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. New York is 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games as a road underdog. The Spurs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.
Rocketman
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma
Play: Texas A&M +1.5
Oklahoma is 2-9 ATS since 1997 against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Texas A&M is allowing only 61.1 points per game overall this year. Texas A&M is 5-1 SU and ATS overall vs Oklahoma the past 3 years. Aggies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday games. Aggies are 41-17 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU loss. Aggies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Aggies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big 12. Sooners are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big 12. Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Aggies are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Texas A&M tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Cavaliers +10
The Nuggets have won 4 in a row but haven't shown consistently that they can be trusted laying this many points. The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Cavs have lost 6 in a row but 4 of those losses came by 9 points or less. The Cavs are only losing on the road by an average score of 99.2 to 93.9, and the Nuggets are only winning at home by an average score of 102.3 to 99.6. I think odds makers are giving Denver a few too many points here. Take Cleveland.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Lakers -7
The Lakers have gone from an 8-point favorite down to just a 7-point favorite against the Wizards tonight. Los Angeles suffered a tough overtime loss at Detroit last night, but that actually adds value to taking the Lakers tonight. Los Angeles hasn't lost consecutive games since the beginning of February.
The Pistons are a better team than their record indicates, but that is not the case for the Wizards. Washington has just one win over their last eight games, and six of those losses have come by at least 7-points. Washington looks good getting 7-points at home, but they are just 6-14 ATS in home games this season and are only 4-13 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.
Los Angeles failed to cover the spread as a favorite last night, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Fairway Jay
Villanova vs. South Florida
Play: South Florida -2.5
Don’t be fooled by Villanova’s win over Rutgers, their season is going to end today. Prior to that victory, the Wildcats were on a 2-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS slide. South Florida (19-12, 12-6 Big East) dominated Villanova this season with their signature defense resulting in a pair of 65-51 and 74-57 wins. South Florida’s last eight games to close the Big East season saw them hold opponents to 50, 51, 45, 56, 47, 51, 48, and 51 points. The Bulls went 6-2 ATS in those games led by the league’s no. 1 scoring defense (57 ppg) and field goal defense (38%), and now face a ‘Nova offense that tied for last in the league in field goal shooting (40%). Villanova also takes plenty of long range shots, but USF holds Big East foes to just 28% shooting from the arch. Add in a rebounding advantage for the Bulls and this becomes a defensive dandy at a fair price playing on a team with rest against an opponent they have dominated this season.
OC Dooley
USC / UCLA Over 113.5
Most reading this analysis are aware that both college programs from the city of Los Angeles have struggled through horrible regular season campaigns including UCLA who in a recent Sports Illustrated article was portrayed as unraveling within. The Bruins responded to the national criticism by posting a pair of victories against schools from the state of Washington, but this once proud program for the moment is tarnished. UCLA head coach Ben Howland has always thrived by stressing "defensive" intensity and looking at today's very low total, one would think it is business as usual with the school that John Wooden made famous. My research indicates that this season when UCLA has been involved in games where the posted total is 129'-or-less, the Bruins have gone 9-2 OVER the number. Even more amazing is the fact that UCLA spanning the past fifteen years when taking the court on a WEDNESDAY have for some reason gone 8-0 OVER in "road" contests. Due to losing 5 impact players to injury which left USC with just 6 scholarship players and no senior leadership, the Trojans have set an all-time single season record for most losses (25) in what has been a wretched campaign. It is interesting to note that when USC has "revenged" a double-digit loss against an opponent that the Trojans have gone 6-0 OVER the total for the entire season and I expect that trend to continue early this evening
Dave Price
Charlotte Bobcats +7
The Bobcats head into tonight's contest with some much needed momentum following a blowout win over Orlando. They are the worst team in the NBA, but that doesn't mean the Jazz, who are just 4-13 on the road, should be laying this many points. The Jazz are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Charlotte.
Jeff Alexander
Arizona State +9
Arizona State enters the Pac-12 tournament with confidence and momentum following a big win over rival Arizona. It will stay hungry here as it looks to avenge last month's embarrassing 24-point loss to Stanford. The Cardinal likely won't give the Sun Devils the respect they deserve because of that win. Plus, they could be riding a little too high following a big victory over Cal. The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite. Take ASU.
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
4 UNIT PLAY
Texas San Antonio/ McNeese State over 133: In the only meeting this year these teams combined for just 112 points, but it should be different this time around. Texas San Ant has revved up their offense of late as they come in averaging 74 ppg (Regulation) in their last 5 games, while their defense has really taken a hit as they have allowed the same 74 ppg over the same 5 game stretch. McNeese State hasn't played any OT games in their last 5 games and those games have averaged 147.4 ppg. In their last 5 games McNeese State has 72.6 ppg and really should be able to get their points vs a road runner squad that just isn't playing defense all that well right now. Now as you see above the Roadrunners have been scoring very good of late and should be able to have a good night vs a Cowboys squad that has allowed 74.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Not only are these teams allowing alot of points lately, but teams have been able to shoot well on them of late, as the Roadrunners have allowed 45.6% shooting, while the Cowboys have allowed 46.9% shooting in each of their last 5 games. Both teams are also hitting 40+ % from long range and 69.9+% from the charity stripe in each of their last 5 games as well. Some really good offense vs weak defense should have this game easily hit the 140's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Uconn -1 over West Virginia: Calhoun is back at the helm for the Huskies and they seem to be really inspired right now. In their last 2 games they have averaged 77.5 ppg and have held their opponents to just 66 ppg on 41.6% shooting. West Virginia may have scored 92 points vs Depaul 2 games ago, but they have still averaged just 62.4 ppg in their last 5 games. They have stepped it up defensively as they have held their last 5 opponents to just 59.8 ppg, but on a kind of high 45.9% shooting. I don't expect the Huskies to run the table in the Big East tournament like last year, but they are playing well enough right now to take care of a West Virginia squad that just hasn't been right down the stretch.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Northern Illinois/ Western Michigan Under 125: The Huskies are just not a good team on offense, as they come in averaging just 54.8 ppg on 36.8% shooting overall, including just 56 ppg on 38.8% shooting in their last 5 games. within the friendly confines of the MAC this year their games have averaged just 122.8 ppg, with the Huskies chipping in just 55.7 ppg of that total. The Huskies have been playing very good defense of late as they have allowed just 59.4 ppg in their last 5 games on just 39.1% shooting. Western Michigan has been average on defense as they have allowed 67.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but they have allowed teams to shoot for just 41.7% over that same stretch and that should really help here vs a weak shooting Huskie squad. Now Western Michigan does score pretty well (68 ppg) but they don't shoot all that well at 43.2% overall, while on the road it is worse at 41.7%. Northern Illinois needs a slower paced game to be effective here and that should take some possessions out of the Broncos. The Huskies have been playing great defense of late and both teams have not allowed good shooting % of late. This game should be hard pressed to reach 120 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under in a neutral court game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) after 15+ games. This play is 92-38 the last 5 seasons.
UAB/ Tulane Over 117: (Added) I don't expect 154 points to be scored like in the last game (I had Over in that one), but I can see this one hitting 125+. Thanks mainly to a defense that has allowed 74.2, Tulane's last 6 games have averaged 134.3 ppg. UAB has not been great on offense overall (60.3), but they have been a bit better of late as they have averaged 64 ppg in their last 5 games. Tulane is not great on offense but if they can hit the 59 ppg that UAB has allowed over their last 5 games then we should be golden. They did hit 73 points on UAB a couple of weeks ago so I really expect them to put up at least 60 in this one. With an expected close game we should also see FT's at the end. Botyh teams played an uptempo game in the last meeting and I expect more of the same here. UAB should get the bulk of the points in this one vs a bad Tulane defensive team, While I expect the Green Wave to notch at least 57 points on thier own. Mid 120's here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Georgetown -5 over Pittsburgh: The Panthers are off a solid win vs St John's, but now they step way up in competition as they take on a Georgetown team that just may find them selves in the Final Four this year. The Hoyas did stubble down the stretch on the road, but they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. The panthers have gone just 2-6 down the stretch, with both wins coming vs St John's, while they have been outscored by 9.7 ppg in those 6 losses. Georgetown should win this one by 7+.
Oklahoma/ Texas A&M over 124: I had the Over in this game when these teams met last week and theyb squeaked over with 127 points. I think it will be a bit easier this time around. The Aggies are not a great offensive team (60.4 ppg), burt they have showed some signs of breaking out as they have averaged 66 ppg in their last 2 games and will be taking on an Oklahoma squad that has allowed 68.7 ppg overall and 69.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The Aggies have allowed 67 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Sooners have scored that much in the same time frame. There is probably no tomorrow for the loser so mI expect both teams to let it all out in this one and put up about 130 points.
Weber State +5 over MONTANA: (Added) WEBER ST is 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997. Despite this game being on the Grizzlies home floor this game should go down to the wire.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Rice -1 over East Carolina: E CAROLINA is 13-32 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games since 1997 and E CAROLINA is 9-22 ATS after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less since 1997.
Seton Hall/ Louisville Over 126.5: (Added) Google News Play. The Cardinals have been stagnant on offense of late and it has resulted in their struggles down the stretch. This is a team that needs to get out and run to be effective and they are playing a team that would like to run as well. The Pirates come in averaging 72.3 ppg in their last 7 games and they average 65.5 ppg in Big East play. Louisville has been a tough defensive ball club of late, but they have allowed 64.9 ppg in Big East play. Despite their offensive struggles down the stretch, the Cardinals have still averaged 67.4 ppg in Big East play this year and they should have good success vs a Seton Hal team that has allowed 65.4 ppg in their last 5 games. I really expect both teams to hit the 65 points mark in this one.