Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, March 9,2011

Marc Lawrence

TCU @ Wyoming
PICK: Wyoming

The Cowboys take on the Horned Frogs in the First Round of the Mountain West Conference tourney in Las Vegas Wednesday in a matchup of two teams likely headed for the golf course sometime within the next 48 hours. As bad as Wyoming has played lately (2-12 SU last 14 games), it's been a fallout of major proportions for TCU who, after a 9-4 start to the season, owns ONE win in its last 18 games entering this contest. To make matters worse, the Frogs are 0-4 SU and ATS in conference tourney play versus No. 8 or higher seeds off a SU and ATS loss. That gets TCU a Thursday morning tee-time. We recommend a 1-unit play on Wyoming.

Jim Feist

Pacers at Timberwolves
Pick: Timberwolves

Indiana is not a good road team and this is a difficult spot, playing the second of a back to back spot. The Pacers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on zero days rest. The Timberwolves have home court and they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Central. When these teams meet, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play the Timberwolves.

James Patrick Sports

Kings vs. Red Wings

The Red Wings are (1-5) in their last (6) versus the Pacific and Detroit is just (2-5) in their last (7) overall. LA owns a (7-3) record in their last (10) against the Western Conference and they get the Big Man's call as Wednesday National Hockey League's complimentary selection. Take Los Angeles Kings.

Hollywood Sports

Golden State Warriors at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets

The Warriors (28-35) will be playing their final game in a seven-game road trip and will likely be tired after having defeated the Cavaliers in Cleveland last night by a 95-85 score. Golden State has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams with a losing record. New Jersey (19-43) has seen their offense improve since the acquisition of Deron Williams. The Nets are scoring 112 PPG while shooting over 46% over their last five games. Take New Jersey minus the points Wednesday night.

Cajun Sports

Detroit Pistons vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -11.5

The Spurs have been idle since Sunday and should have used the time off to refocus and prepare for this contest. They are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Lakers on national television and the Spurs have been money in the bank following a straight up loss this season posting a record of 7-3-1 ATS. They are also 11-2 against the number coming off a home loss in their last game now facing a non-conference opponent. The Spurs are a perfect 8-0 ATS after losing straight up and going Under the posted total at home, including 6-0 ATS when installed as a home favorite. Detroit is 16-32-1 ATS overall in the price range. The Pistons are 6-18-1 ATS coming off an ATS win in their last game when playing in this price range and 3-12-1 ATS if they won ATS as a favorite in their last game. A check of our powerful NBA database reveals two league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest and support our selection on the Spurs. Play ON NBA home teams with two days rest coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite in their last game, 65-28-1 ATS. Our final system tells us to Play ON NBA home teams with two days rest off a double-digit loss as a favorite a game in which they were down by at least eight points at the end of the third quarter, 36-6 ATS since 2006. Even though the Spurs have recently struggled in this price range as a home favorite we believe they will overcome that history and look to put that loss to the Lakers behind them with a solid performance tonight. Lay the chalk with the Spurs as they roll over a beleaguered and disinterested Pistons team.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia 76ers -1

The Thunder won the first meeting between these two teams 109-103 in November in Oklahoma City behind 31 points from Kevin Durant as Andre Iguodala sat out with right Achilles' tendonitis, but I like the Sixers to get revenge in this game. Philadelphia is quietly playing as good as anyone in the Eastern Conference. If not for a dismal 3-13 start, the Sixers may be competing for home court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Philadelphia is 30-17 since their rough start this season, beating Indiana 110-100 on Tuesday. They will also have Andre Iguodala for this game as he followed up back to back triple doubles with 16 points and 10 assists against the Pacers. Philadelphia is 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games against a team with a winning of 60% or more. Play on Philly.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

Nebraska over Oklahoma State

The key angle in this encounter is the defense of Nebraska which is currently #1 in the conference. If they can contain the floor game of the Pokes, an easy victory is at hand. OSU does have seem season revenge, but that has already been imputed into the current Las Vegas line. With the chalk 5-1 ATS in this series and OSU 1-7 ATS in conference, I'll take a ticket with the Cornhuskers.

Tom Stryker

Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -10

Missouri struggled something fierce offensively in its last game of the regular season connecting on just 17-of-58 from the floor and 3-of-23 from behind the arc against Kansas. Matched up against a Texas Tech bunch that really isn't at its best in an up-tempo game, Mizzou will roll.

To help our cause, Mizzou applies to a strong 43-21 ATS conference tournament angle of mine and the Tigers are definitely worth a look. This technical gem fit Buffalo last night and cashed too. What you want to do is take a favorite priced at -9' or more in the first round (or donkey round) of a conference tournament provided they're matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .320 or better.

Missouri stumbled into the tournament by dropping three straight (0-2-1 ATS) to Kansas State, Nebraska and Kansas. As bad as that looks, it actually places the Tigers in great wagering situation. Take a look. Since the 1990-91 season, conference tournament favorites in the first round (or donkey round) are a respectable 21-8 ATS provided they enter off three or more straight up losses and their opponent checks in off a blowout loss of 10 points or more. If our "play on" side is facing a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .420 or better and is seeded at 13 or less, this angle hits perfection at 14-0 SU and ATS!

As an underdog matched up against an opponent that scoots in off three or more straight up losses, Texas Tech has posted a dismal 3-14 SU and 5-11-1 ATS record. Tigers head coach Mike Anderson has been trying to pick up career victory No. 200 and has failed the last three times he has taken the court. Tonight, Anderson will finally succeed. Take Missouri.

JR O'Donnell

Hawaii -1

Short & Sweet we go early as the Hawaii Rainbows -1 get Jr's call! They punch in @ 18-10, 8-7 WAC heads to Las Vegas for the 2011 Verizon Wireless Western Athletic Conference Tournament!! The 5 seed will take out the 8 seed here in the San Jose crew who checks in @ 15-14, 5-11 WAC! The Rainbows got off to a 0-5 start & now has run off 8 of the last 11. These Gib Arnold led Bows have a gem in Zane Johnson & his 94 threes so far!! The #'s are strong @ Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog & Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Rainbows 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorites ...Play the HOT TEAM...

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Rangers +108 over ANAHEIM

The Rangers are a better team on the road and it’s for that reason among others that they’re a solid wager here. They’re good too. New York has won two straight over Philly and Ottawa and outscored that duo 11-1. Prior to that they lost to Minnesota in what has to be considered one of the most misleading scores of the year. The whole game was dominated by the Blue Shirts, as they outshot the Wild 41-19 but lost 3-1. The Rangers are solid from top to bottom and they will not get outworked against a Ducks team that has trouble when facing a relentless forechecking team like the one they’ll face here. Additionally, Dan Ellis has been unsteady and that leaves the Ducks vulnerable to soft and demoralizing goals. Offensively, the Ducks are very dangerous with perhaps the best line in the game but after that production drops way off. Let’s not forget that in three recent games against St. Louis, Washington and Minnesota, the Ducks allowed 21 goals against. Anaheim has been streaky all season long and while they’ve won two of its last three, the two wins both came in OT and so they could just as easily be on a three-game losing streak after falling to the Canucks in their latest, 3-0. Rangers offer up all the value here. Play: New York +108 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +123 over COLUMBUS

The Jackets return home here from their longest road trip of the season and their most crucial stretch of games of the season. So, how did they do under pressure? They went 0-5 on said trip and picked up two out of a possible 10 points. Goodbye season. They also lost to Edmonton and in the final game of the trip they blew a 3-1 first period lead. This is a physically and mentally tired Blue Jackets squad that had hopes of making the post season but those dreams are over. The Blues are not in any better shape in terms of making the playoffs but a single win really does wonders for a team’s psyche. Now they’ll get Jaroslav Halak back in net and that, too, will instill more confidence in the entire group. This is a great spot for an upset against a very fragile host. Play: St. Louis +134 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Leonard

San Jose St vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii -1½

The Warriors have won both meetings this year by holding the Spartans to 37% and 31% shooting. Despite being outrebounded Hawaii won both meetings by 6 points each. They have played very well on the road as of late winning 3 of 5 straight up while San Jose State has dropped 4 of their last 5 away.

Hawaii had a five game winning streak snapped last time out in Fresno. They have just played two straight games on the mainland and have a serious fan advantage playing in Las Vegas. Hawaiians love to gamble, and Las Vegas is often considered by the locals as a Hawaiian Island. The teams always are well supported in Sin City, something that cannot be said of San Jose State. Off a mediocre 15-14 season we can't see the Spartans getting much fan support here.

Hawaii is the better team that has already proven themselves head to head in this matchup. The line is a bargain at this price.

Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers -1

The Philadelphia 76ers have been going under the radar all season. This team is still lacking respect from odds makers tonight as just a 1-point home favorite against the struggling Oklahoma City Thunder. Philly is 33-30 on the season and a very profitable 40-22 ATS. The 76ers are 21-10 at home and 20-11 ATS there. Not only are they winning their home games, they are outscoring opponents by 6.0 PPG in Philly while limiting foes to 94.4 PPG. Philly has won 7 of their last 8 and 13 of their last 17 overall.

Oklahoma City has dropped 4 of their last 7 heading into this one. They are just depleted right now inside after trading away Krstic and Green, because the pieces they got back in Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson are both out with injuries. The Thunder have dropped 4 of their last 5 away from home. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Philly is 7-0 ATS against Northwest division opponents this season. The 76ers are 16-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Bet Philly Wednesday.

Matt Fargo

New York Knicks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -4

I won with Memphis in its last game on Monday against Oklahoma City and this is another good spot to play the Grizzlies. Memphis is currently in the eighth and final playoff spot as it is just a game and a half ahead of Phoenix and two and a half games ahead of Utah so every game counts. The Grizzlies have won 18 of 23 games this season as a home favorite and they are 22-13 following a win and that shows momentum has played a big role in their success this season. The Knicks have won two straight games including a blowout of Utah last time out that was much worse than the final score indicated. New York led by as many as 31 points and the starters came out early so they let off the gas pedal. The Knicks are a game under .500 on the road which actually is not bad and they have been solid as a road underdog, going 19-5-1 ATS. However, they provide us with a letdown opportunity and tomorrow night, they are on TNT in a revenge game at Dallas which is a definite lookahead. The Grizzlies did lose their last game played at home prior to Oklahoma City, which was on Friday against New Orleans but they had won five straight and nine of 10 prior to that with the lone loss coming against the Lakers and wins against Orlando and San Antonio. Going back even further shows that Memphis has gained a significant home court advantage as it started the season with a 2-4 record at FedEx Forum but has since gone 20-5 and that is one of the best records in the NBA. As mentioned, momentum has been big for Memphis and close wins have been at the forefront as it is 11-3 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. The Grizzlies are also 15-6 ATS in their 21 games this season coming off a home win and as a favorite of fewer than five points, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five. Meanwhile the Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit win. The favorite is on a 3-1-1 ATS the last five meetings. 3* Memphis Grizzlies

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Boston Celtics -9.5

Having had 2 full days to gear up for this one, I expect the Celtics to put a double-digit beating on the Clippers this evening. After all, the Celtics are a dominant 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 2 days of rest. It has been extremely profitable to back Boston following an ATS defeat. In fact, the Celtics are an impressive 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS loss. Boston actually enters this contest off back-to-back ATS losses, and that bodes extremely well for us considering it is a perfect 11-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Celtics are winning by an average score of 102.0 to 86.7 in this situation. The Clippers are just 6-25 on the road this season, and they are at a further disadvantage here without Eric Gordon. Also, the Clippers are 16-40 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet Boston.