Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 1

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Colorado at LA Dodgers
The Rockies look to take advantage of a Dodger team that is 1-5 in Josh Beckett's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Colorado is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130)

Game 901-902: NY Mets at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 13.543; Miami (LeBlanc) 14.472
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+110); Under

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Gomez) 15.726; Milwaukee (Burgos) 16.545
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Over

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.980; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.185
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

Game 907-908: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.037; Atlanta (Maholm) 14.569
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); Over

Game 909-910: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.665; Cubs (Feldman) 14.452
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Total
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); N/A

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.844; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.655
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 16.576; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.481
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 915-916: Minnesota at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 15.386; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.971
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-240); Under

Game 917-918: LA Angels at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.446; Oakland (Milone) 13.964
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

Game 919-920: Houston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bedard) 13.500; NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.872
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-230); Under

Game 921-922: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.415; Toronto (Buehrle) 14.999
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 15.045; Texas (Tepesch) 14.102
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 15.823; Kansas City (Mendoza) 16.656
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Under

Game 927-928: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 15.595; Seattle (Harang) 14.034
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-130); Over

Game 929-930: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.375; Cleveland (Bauer) 15.946
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

When Brandon McCarthy and the Diamondbacks host Tim Lincecum and the Giants in the finale of this three-games series in Arizona Wednesday night they will do so knowing McCarthy is in fine KW form with 13 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last three starts. With Lincecum 0-6 with a 6.36 ERA in his last three team starts in this series, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Stephen Nover

Minnesota Twins +1½ +106

Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez is coming off a game for the ages this past Friday at home against Atlanta. Sanchez struck out a team-record 17 batters in a 10-0 victory.

Sanchez has been brilliant so far this season, but he's not this good and is coming off a season-high 121 pitches. He is overpriced in this matchup because of his great last start.

The Twins are familiar with the former Marlin hurler having faced him on April 3. Sanchez pitched well in that game, but Minnesota won, 3-2.

Minnesota starter Scott Diamond can keep his team in the game. He has a 2.35 career ERA at Comerica Park in three starts. He has a 1.98 ERA the past four times he's faced the Tigers.

The Twins are 10-2 in their last 12 games if given 1 1/2 runs.

Ryan James

Rockets/Thunder Over 207½

Both of these teams have very high powered offenses. The Thunder average 108.7 points per game at home and allow opponents 95.5 points per game on average. Houston is no average offense though so they should have no problem scoring over the defensive average allowed by the Thunder. Houston on the road this season has scored 103.3 points per game. Their lack of defense, allowing 104.1 points per game, is what keeps us away from the side but the over is the easy call on the total.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets -129

The Mets will try and get past another brutal bullpen collapse of a loss here today. After losing the lead and a tough 15 inning decision on Monday, they came back on Tuesday with another tough loss a 21 setback in a game they led the whole way before Miami caught them in the ninth. Now they are on a 6 game losing streak and come back for an early start trying to avoid a sweep to one of the worse team in baseball. I'm sure General Manger Sandy Alderson expected this type of performance when he lazily assembled this team in the winter months. The Mets do however fit a Solid 88% Bounce back system that plays on road favorites that are off a road favored loss by 1 run where they scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with a total that was 8 or less, vs an opponent off a 1 runs home dog win while scoring 2 or less runs. The Marlins are 1-8 in Day games while averaging 2.8 runs, are missing their best hitter, are 0-3 on Wednesday and are 17-36 as a home dog of +100 to +125. Both Pitchers Gee for the Mets and Leblanc for Miami have struggled this season. However Gee is 4-0 on the road in his career in May road games. Leblanc has lost his last May starts. Make it the Mets in Matinee Action.

Bruce Marshall

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay seemed to be in control on Tuesday night at the Big K before starting pitcher Alex Cobb weakened in the sixth inning, and five straight Royals hits quickly erased a 2-0 Rays lead as KC proceeded to roll. But there are a couple of differences on Wednesday for visiting Tampa Bay. First, the Rays aren't going against Royals ace James Shields, who was also making his first appearance in an emotional night vs. his old Tampa Bay team since the offseason trade that sent him to KC. The Rays offense, which had scored 19 runs in two outings preceding Tuesday's game, should have better luck vs. emergency Royals starter Luis Mendoza, pulled from the rotation in mid-April due to some disastrous results. And second, don't expect Tampa Bay workhorse starter Jeremy Hellickson, with a 1.17 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Royals, to falter as did Cobb, as Hellickson has completed at least six innings in 21 of his last 27 starts.

Dave Cokin

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Pick: San Diego Padres

The Padres have shown some life with the bats lately, and if they can continue to produce some quality AB's tonight, they're going to have a solid chance at another win at Wrigley Field against the Cubs.

I'm pretty bullish on Andrew Cashner, tonight's San Diego starter. Cashner has dominating swing and miss stuff. The key for the hard throwing righty is maintaining his command. It's pretty simple for Cashner. When he avoids free passes, he's nasty. I'm also impressed by his 51% ground ball rate this far this season. That's obviously a small sample as Cashner has not thrown many innings, but it's still a positive indicator. There's no doubt in my mind that Cashner has the potential to be a high end starter and the ace of the San Diego staff. There still figures to be the occasional bump in the road, but at least for the time being, I'm putting Cashner in the undervalued category.

Scott Feldman will throw for the Cubs tonight, and he is off two pretty good starts. Two games back, he got in some trouble thanks to shoddy defense and then gave uo a bomb to Ryan Braun. Last time out was Feldman's best effort of the season, and now that his back seems to be okay, Feldman has a decent chance to maintain a spot at the back of the Cubs rotation. But that's about the ceiling for Feldman. He's a guy who has to throw strikes and generate grounders. Anything away from that and he is a candidate to get hammered. Feldman has exhibited improved control of late, but the BB rate is still 5.2 on the young season, and that's a red flag.

It's not a blowout on the pitcher comparison, but it's decisive enough for Cashner. The Padres have the more reliable bullpen and while it won't last, the Friars are mashing right now, scoring 30 runs in their last four games. Basically, this is one of those games where nearly all the variables point to San Diego getting the win, so I'll go ahead and side with the Padres to collect another win tonight.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Pick: Over

Milwaukee is a good offensive park and the over is 35-15-2 in the last 52 meetings in Milwaukee between these teams. Pittsburgh goes with lefty Jonathan Sanchez, who can't throw strikes, walking 8 in 11 innings while allowing 21 hits (12.71 ERA). The over is 11-4 in the Brewers last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. At least the Pittsburgh offense continues to improve, pounding the Cardinals 9-0 before this series, part of a 5-0 run over the total. The over is 24-9-3 in the Pirates last 36 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Pirates/Brewers over the total.

Art Aronson

Oakland A's -108

CJ Wilson (2-0, 4.30 ERA) gets the start for the visitors; Wilson gave up three runs off seven hits over 5 1/3's frames in his team's eventual 6-3 win over the soft-hitting Mariners on Friday. Wilson was able to work himself out of several jams vs. Seattle, but wasn't so lucky when he faced the A's back on April 9th, giving up four runs over six innings in the no-decision. Wilson will be opposed by Tommy Milone (3-2, 3.38 ERA) who is coming off a tough luck loss in which he gave up one unearned run off six hits over 6 2/3's frames of work in his team's 3-0 setback to the Orioles on Friday; he'd finish with one walk and five K's (note though that Milone was 7-4 with a very respectable 2.74 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year). The A's come into this game with momentum having won eight of the last nine in this series including all five this year; they're collectively hitting .310 with eight home runs, eight stolen bases and 48 total runs vs. LA thus far. Milone has been a "different" pitcher at home this year, going 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA; he's also 3-1 in his last four vs. the Angels. I believe the surging home side is worth a second look in this one.

Bryan Power

Boston vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

I won with the Blue Jays yesterday (at a nice underdog price!) and am going to recommend a small wager on them again here. To rehash from Tuesday's analysis, I simply am not ready to buy into this start from Boston just yet. Coming into this series on a five-game win streak, they were due to start giving some back, while Toronto was bound to go the other way after losing four in a row.......

You had to take the Red Sox win streak with a grain of salt considering four of the wins came via a sweep of lowly Houston. Wednesday's starter Clay Buchholz has enjoyed a tremendous start to 2013, winning his first five starts to go along with a 1.19 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. But like his team, the run is unsustainable. This will be his first time facing Toronto as he did not see them in the earlier series the teams played. He's had plenty of success in the past North of the Border, but again, I don't see a pitcher who ended 2012 so poorly keeping this up.

Toronto counters with Mark Buehrle, who has disappointed in his first month with the club. But he faces a Boston lineup that struggles somewhat against lefties (4.0 runs/game). Buehrle has a 9-1 TSR in the month of May the previous two seasons.

Chase Diamond

8* NY Islanders +1½

Paul Leiner

100* Pacers -7

100* Redsox -145

50* Athletics -120