Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday May, 15

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays and Red Sox wrap up a mini two-game series Wednesday evening when Jeremy Hellickson opposes Clay Buchholz at Tropicana Field in Tampa. Hellickson enters the fray 3-1 with a 1-42 ERA a home this season. Hellickson also sports a sharp 2.09 career ERA in his seven starts during the month of May. On the flip side, Buchholz is in lousy KW form with 9 strikeouts and 12 walks in his last three starts. Buchholz also owns a sky-high 11.58 ERA away from Fenway Park this season. With that we'll stay at home with the better arm and the better team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa has won 25 of 28 times as a favorite of -120 or more if they lost their starters last appearance by 1 run and scored 2 or more runs, providing the starter is on normal 4-5 day rest. Tampa has Hellickson going anf his 1.42 home era is far better than that of Boston starter Buchholz and his 11.58 road era. They rays are a perfect 6-0 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 an have won 18 of the last 25 vs right handed pitchers. They also have a 1.81 home bullpen era. Boston has lost 8 of 12 in division play and will likely have their win streak snapped tonight. Take Tampa.

Ben Burns

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals

We won yesterday's free play on the Orioles over the Yankees. This looks like a good spot to go against the O's though. With an upset win at Texas yesterday, the Royals have now won four straight and six of seven. This matchup should provide them with a good chance at extending that streak for another day.

Hunter has shown little reason to trust him this season. Through seven starts, he has a 5.14 ERA, allowing 10 home runs. In three road starts, he's got a terrible 9.56 ERA and 1.875 WHIP. In his 16 road innings, Hunter has allowed a whopping seven home runs.

Paulino has only made two starts. His lone home start saw him allow just four hits through six shutout innings, a 5-1 win over the Yankees.

Given Hunter's struggles on the road and given that the Royals are 7-2 the last nine times that they were a host in this series, I feel the price is reasonable. Consider KC.

Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Gavin Floyd is rolling and therefore has a good chance to do well against that struggling Angels attack. Jerome Williams has been okay for the Halos, but I see the value here on the White Sox as road underdogs.

Jim Feist

White Sox vs Angels
Pick: Under

A pair of struggling offensive teams meet out West in Anaheim. Chicago limps into town 17th in runs scored, 21st in OBP and 22nd in slugging. At least starter Gavin Floyd (2.53 ERA) is throwing well, fanning 42 in 46 innnings, only 13 walks allowed and just 31 hits. He faces a weak Angels lineup that is 21st in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage. Starter Jerome Williams has been solid, though, with a 3-1 record and few walks allowed. His last three starts: 2-0 record, 1.59 ERA. The Angels are on an 18-7-1 run under the total and the under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games as a favorite. Play the White Sox/Angels under the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ Boston Under 172: Gotta love taking an Under in a Sixers home game. Philly home games have gone 25-11 UNDER on the year, with an average of 177.1 ppg being scored in those games. All 3 Sixers home games vs the Bulls went Under the total, with an average of just 160.3 ppg being scored. Philly has played great defense all year, especially at home where they have allowed just 85.1 ppg, while they have allowed just 80.3 ppg in their last 6 games overall. Boston has all it's parts on the floor, but Pierce and Allen are hurting so they are not at 100% and that makes it tough for this team to get out and run, so they are really relying on their defense right now and it has been good as well, as they have allowed just 88.76 ppg on the year, including allowing just 80.6 ppg in their last 10 games overall. This whole series will be a defensive battle as both teams have been known for their defense more than their offense this year. Philly has been a haven for low scoring games this year and their is another one in the offing tonight.

OKLAHOMA CITY -8 over LA Lakers: After taking care of the defending champs in 4 games the Thunder opened up their series with the Lakers by winning by 29 points. The Lakers are a tired bunch right now and the Thunder knows it, so you can expect them to keep the pace high and that will again wear this team down in the 2nd half. Oklahoma city scores 106.1 ppg at home, and will be facing a Lakers team that has allowed 105 pgg in their last 4 games and 99.6 ppg on the road this year. The Thunder will not be as pumpedd for this one as in game 1, but they have now seen Boston and Miami lose home court advantage so far in round 2 and you can bet that they will not allow that to happen here. The Lakers may stay with this team in the 1st half, but they will again tire in the 2nd half and that will lead to another easy DD win by the Thunder here.

2 UNIT PLAY

PHILADELPHIA -2 over Boston: Philadelphia is playing really well right now and they continue to surprise. Beating Boston in Boston is no easy task, but they pulled it off and now get the Celtics at home. The Sixers are playing great team basketball and have been getting contributions from many players. And their defense has been stellar, allowing just 80.7 ppg in their last 6 playoff games. Boston came into the series dinged up a bit and while pierce and Allen are playing, they are not at 100% and it hast hurt their scoring of late as the Celtics have averaged just 85.5 ppg in their last 4 games. Boston Averages just 90.8 ppg on the road, while the Sixers allow just 85.1 ppg at home. Philadelphia won all 3 home games vs Chicago and they will take their first home game with Boston as well. Looks for at least a 5 point Sixers win here.

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +110 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings)

Patrick Corbin has made three starts since being called up on April 30. In 16 innings, he’s walked five while striking out 16. He has a nice groundball/fly-ball profile of 48%/26% to go along with a strong minor league career. He has a quality 89-94 mph fastball that he spots low in the zone. His slider exhibits an effective late break and he complements it with a change-up that is rapidly improving. The kid has a chance to stick around and he’s surely a better option than 49-year-old Jamie Moyer. The Rockies have won just once in Moyer’s seven starts so far. They’ve lost his last four starts and in his past three, he’s allowed 14 runs in 15 frames and hasn’t made it past five innings in any of them. Moyer has been taken yard six times. He’s allowed 53 hits in 38 frames for a BAA of .323. In four games at Coors, Moyer has allowed 35 hits in 22 innings. Jamie Moyer is probably the last pitcher in the majors that we’d want to spot anything with. Only one pitcher in the history of baseball has pitched more than 20 innings after the age of 48 and that was way back in 1933 by a guy named Jack Quinn. Nothing suggests Moyer can be that rare exception. Play: Arizona +110 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).

Boston +129 over TAMPA BAY

The Red Sox are batting .305 over their past five games while the Rays are hitting .249 over that same span. Despite a 4-1 record, Clay Buchholz has been awful this season with an ERA of 8.31. However, Buchholz has had success versus the Rays in the past with a 5-2 record in nine starts, a 2.38 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 53 K in 56.2 IP. Surely his 8.31 ERA will come down. By contrast, Jeremy Hellickson continues to defy logic with results that don’t match his average skills. Last year, he continually escaped disaster and this year he’s at it again. His control and strikeout rate continue to deteriorate. He has a fly-ball bias profile and an xERA at home (4.34) almost three runs higher than his actual ERA of 1.42. Unless he starts missing more bats and inducing more groundballs, Hellickson remains a risky bet to continue to outperform his recent underwhelming skills. Boston’s hot bats should be able to handle this extremely lucky pitcher. Play: Boston +129 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

New York Mets -145

The Mets starting pitcher Johan Santana has strung together four straight quality starts to lower his ERA to a very solid 2.92 on the season. I also expect Santana to pitch well here against a Cincinnati team that he is 4-0 against lifetime with an ERA of 3.23 in thirty nine innings pitched. Santana's New York teammates should be able to provide him with the run support needed to pick up the win against the Reds struggling starting pitcher Mike Leake. Leake is coming off of his shortest outing in his career in his last start against Washington as he allowed six runs on seven hits in just three innings of work and is now 0-5 this season with an ERA of 7.11. Play on New York.

Stephen Nover

Cincinnati Reds +125

The Mets are an overachieving 20-16 team. I'm going to be looking for spots to fade them. This is one such spot.

Yes, the Mets are home and Johan Santana is pitching. Santana is on the comeback trail after missing last season and doing a nice job this year with a 2.92 ERA. But the Mets didn't win for Santana when he was healthy. This year Santana is 1-2.

The Mets have to take it easy with Santana. Only once has he gone through the seventh inning. The Mets' bullpen, particularly closer Frank Francisco, is extremely vulnerable. Francisco has an ERA of 8.59 yet remains the team's closer.

The Reds not only have the far superior bullpen, but a much better everyday lineup, too. The Mets are going to sink because of all their injuries. They are down to second-stringers at catcher and second base. Their outfield is banged-up with Terry Collins constantly having to platoon various journeymen/minor league types. Rony Cedeno is the shortstop, which is quite a comedown from Jose Reyes. First baseman Ike Davis is either hurt or sick. He's batting .164.

Reds starter Mike Leake has been a major disappointment, although he showed signs of coming around during his second-to-last start. Leake, though, has too much talent to continue to be this bad. He'll be helped here pitching in spacious Citi Field against a weak Mets offense that ranks 28th in homers.

The Reds are 5-1 the last six times Leake has been a road 'dog of up to plus $1.50, while the Mets are 1-7 the past eight times they've been favored by up to minus $1.50.

JR O'Donnell

Tampa Bay Rays -145

Rays. Rays are 22-14, & 13-3 at home, while the Bosox are 16-19 & 8-8 away! Sox send out lefty Clay Bucholz who is 4-1, but that is very deceiving, as he has a huge 8.31 ERA and bulbous 1.97 WHIP. The truth be told he has just been horrible in 2012, and has won because the Sox have scored "7" runs twice & "11" & "13"! Not because he has been sharp, and he has walkd "22" compared to just "20" strikeouts. His mound foe, Jeremy Hellickson is 3-0, 2.95 ERA 1.24 WHIP. In his last start he left with a 3-2 lead, only to see the bullpen lose the win for him.

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for Wednesday is going to be on the Kansas City Royals, minus the money, against the visiting Baltimore Orioles. Both teams are in after pretty sizable wins, as the Royals slived up the Texas Rangers' pitching staff with a 7-4 win, while the O's knocked off the New York Yankees, 5-2. But with Baltimore being the road team here, and the Royals coming in riding a four-game win streak, I think the oddsmakers got this line right in making Kansas City the short chalk.

I'm not going to worry about listing pitchers in this one, but I will tell you I'm pretty comfortable with the matchup I have tonight, with Kansas City right-hander Felipe Paulino taking on fellow-righty Tommy Hunter.

Paulino was a couple of bad pitches away from another quality start before exiting the game his last time out, against the White Sox. Paulino, who has never faced Baltimore, will be making his third start of the season and should be geared up to avenge his last trip to the hill, not to mention pumped after seeing his teammates win their last four of a five-game road trip by a combined final of 24-6. The lone loss on the junket? Paulino's start in Chi-town.

That offense should stay hot, as Hunter is in after a strange week last week, when he was demoted to Triple-A on May 7, then recalled to pitch on three days' rest last Thursday. Now back in the rotation, I'm not sold he's ready to step up after seeing him allow four runs on five hits in six innings versus Texas, and lower his ERA to 5.14.

I'll lay the chalk with the Royals tonight as my free winner.

2♦ KANSAS CITY

CHUCK O'BRIEN

I look to extend my winning streak with complimentary plays - which is currently at 41-22-1 after the $2-underdog Royals won last night in Texas - and will play the Washington Nationals on the Run Line at home against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.

Welcome to the big leagues Bryce Harper! The rookie phenom has gone deep in two straight games, the last two days against the San Diego Padres, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 19-year-old make it 3-for-3. The kid is catching on, and is easily a spark in this lineup, and I see this lineup erupting tonight against Pittsburgh southpaw Erik Bedard.

Bedard was on the bump last week against the Nationals, but bowed out after an inning with back spasms. And something tells me in his first time back, he's going to ease off his delivery, which means less velocity, and leaving balls out over the plate and in the sweet spot. True, the Pirates will keep a close eye on the lefty to make sure he doesn't alter his normal delivery to favor his back, but it only takes one deadly inning.

And on the defensive end, let's not forget we're talking about the No. 1 pitching staff in the bigs. And while Stephen Strasburg is generally considered the ace, check out Gio Gonzalez, who picked up his fourth win in five decisions by striking out nine over five innings in a win at Cincinnati last week.

Gonzalez is now 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA on the year, good enough for sixth in the bigs with that ERA. He ranks seventh in the league with his 50 strikeouts and is second in the league by limiting foes to a batting average of .170.

Right spot at the right time with these two pitchers and these two teams, as the Nationals put it on the Bucs behind Harper's bat and Gonzalez's arm.

1♦ WASHINGTON -1.5

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for Wednesday night is on the MLB diamond with the Los Angeles Dodgers getting it done over the San Diego Padres.

This line has me confused a little bit, as I had Dodgers southpaw Chris Capuano laying more like -140, over San Diego's left-hander Clayton Richard. So to be able to lay just -120 in this 3:35 p.m. first pitch (local time), I'm jumping all over this game.

Though Cappy was signed on to be the team's fifth starter, make note he's tied for the team lead in wins with Ted Lilly, and let's be real, no one saw that coming with a rotation that includes Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. But why argue with logic, just roll with it, right? Capuano is 5-0 with a stifling 2.06 ERA, and the nine-year veteran has credited a new grip on a breaking ball developed in Spring Training as the key newcomer to his arsenal that has the opposition batting a paltry .192. His ERA ranks 10th in the bigs, while he's tied for fifth with most wins.

As a team, the Dodgers rank No. 2 in the league with their staff ERA of 3.20, led by the starting rotation that is tied for second with the Phillies with an ERA of 2.92.

He should get the run support, with the Friars handing the ball to a struggling Richard, who has taken the loss in each of his last five starts, and in six starts since last posting a win against these same Dodgers, is 0-5 with a 6.32 ERA. Granted, I know he has a 2.21 ERA in three home starts and a 7.99 ERA in four road outings, I don't think he's going to be any good against this lineup.

The Dodgers are 6-1 against the Padres this season, and have won 16 of the last 19 meetings overall, dating to last season.

2♦ L.A. DODGERS

David Banks

Lakers / Thunder Over 195.5

The well rested Oklahoma City Thunder (52-19. 38-33 ATS) certainly took advantage of the tired Los Angeles Lakers (45-29, 31-43 ATS) in Game 1 of this series as the Lake Show was just one day removed from playing a Game 7 vs. the Nuggets. The Thunder effectively ran the Lakers out of the building early and never let up in a 119-90 blowout, shooting 53.0 percent from the field while limiting Los Angeles to 43.2 percent shooting. The Lakers better get their game legs back under them for Game 2, which will again take place at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK on Wednesday night at 9:30 ET on TNT.

Furthermore, the final result could have been even uglier on Monday night as the Thunder got up by as many as 35 points but then just cruised though the latter stages of the third quarter and the entire final stanza. Incredibly, the Thunder committed only one turnover in the entire first half while building a 59-44 halftime lead and they finished the game with an all time-franchise low four turnovers! Apparently the Lakers' fatigue affected them defensively, but there is now no rest for the weary with Game 2 on Wednesday and Games 3 and 4 set for Friday and Saturday. Thus, look for Oklahoma City to continue to run at every opportunity, and the Thunder are certainly fine with that after finishing third in the NBA in both scoring (103.1 points per game) and field goal percentage (47.1 percent) during the regular season and also finishing fifth in tempo rating with 95.7 possessions per game. That fast pace was actually a key reason why the Thunder only finished 17th in scoring defense at 96.9 points, as they actually finished fourth in field goal percentage against at 42.7 percent. Thus, it appears the Lakers have their work cut out for them with the first four games of this series being so close together after going seven games vs. Denver.

Now the Lakers are a proud bunch that has overcome adversity before and their starting five are as good as any in basketball. That said, Kobe Bryant had a low (for him) 20 points in Game 1 and should almost certainly improve in this game, while Andrew Bynum added 20 points and 14 rebounds. Metta World Peace was booed every time he touched the ball in his second game back after being suspended for seven games for his vicious elbow on Oklahoma City's James Harden, but he still contributed 12 points while hitting on two three-pointers. However, Pau Gasol scored only 10 points and nobody else came close to double-figures in a dismal performance. Now it should be noted that the Lakers are 20-8 straight up this year following a loss combining regular season and playoffs, including 10-2 following a double-digit loss, but that resiliency will be put to the test by the second seeded Thunder, who have been hitting on all cylinders in the last three games since struggling a bit in the first two games of their opening series vs. the Dallas Mavericks. The bottom line though is that Oklahoma City has yet to taste defeat in five post-season games this year.

The Thunder are now 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last five head-to-head meetings, and the only Lakers' win came in what was a meaningless game for Oklahoma City in the final regular season meeting, aka the World Peace Elbow Throw game. Also, the Thunder are now 6-2 ATS in the last eight encounters here in Oklahoma.