BRAD WILTON
Your free play for Wednesday is to look for the Reds and Marlins to put some runs up on the board as they make their way Over the total.
Cincy has been putting some runs on the scoreboard of late. Last night they plated 6 in the win, as they have now scored 28 runs the past 4 games. The offense should continue against Alex Sanabia who has allowed 11 runs - 8 of them earned - over his last 16 innings pitched. Sanabia also has a home ERA of 5.60, and 5 of his 7 season starts this year have landed Over the posted price.
Mike Leake counters for the Reds, and he sports an over 5 ERA for his last 3 starts, and an even higher over 6 ERA on the road this year. All 7 of Leake's starts this year have gone Over the total.
Nothing changes tonight, runs add up as the Reds and Marlins go Over the total on Wednesday night.
3* CINCINNATI-MIAMI OVER
Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Diego +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I could sum up this play in one sentence; Freddy Garcia doesn't deserve to be in this price range...ever.
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We cashed a ticket against Garcia with the Royals last week, and we'll go right back to the well today, albeit using the +1.5 run-line to our advantage.
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The only reason I hesitate to back the Padres on the moneyline is the presence of Jason Marquis on the mound. Like Garcia, Marquis' best days are behind him, but he has managed to post some solid overall numbers this season, largely due to the fact he's made five of his seven starts, and each of his last four, at home.
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With that being said, I believe the Padres can do enough damage at the plate to stay step-for-step with the O's for nine innings this afternoon.
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While San Diego is thought of as an anemic offensive club, they have proven to be a streaky team in recent years, and I look for them to build on the momentum they gained with last night's come-from-behind 3-2 win. The Pads' scored two runs in the top of the ninth inning to secure that victory, ending Jim Johnson's consecutive saves streak at 27 games.
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The Orioles are one of the most popular plays on the board today, but I believe they'll be in tough once again. They've actually played their best baseball on the road this season - here at home, they're just 9-7, and 5-11 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line.
Steve Merril
Indians vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8
The Indians play their fourth game in just over 48 hours as they wrap up a brief 2-game set in Philadelphia against the Phillies. Cole Hamels looks for his second win of the season; five of his eight starts have gone Under the total. Hamels has allowed just 5 runs and 12 hits over his last three starts while striking out 17. Jason Giambi (0-4), Mark Reynolds (2-10) and Drew Stubbs (2-11) have had their problems with the Phillies’ pitcher. Cleveland has scored just 7 total runs in their last four games, all of which have gone Under the total. They are hitting right around .236 in their last eight games.
Corey Kluber has pitched well for the Indians excluding his last start at the tough Detroit Tigers. Before giving up 8 runs to them, he gave up 5 runs and 12 hits in two starts against the Royals and Twins. The Phillies broke out of a scoring slump a bit on Tuesday night by scoring 6 runs. Before that they had scored just 13 runs over a 5-game span. This is a Phillies team hitting just .243 against right handed pitching. The Indians’ bullpen still has not lost a game yet this season and they continue to be a strength. We expect a low-scoring game between the Indians and Phillies on Wednesday afternoon.
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Cleveland +148 over PHILADELPHIAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As we saw with Roy Halladay, ballplayers often overestimate their ability to play through an injury. As Halladay lurched from bad outing to bad outing through March, April, and May, it became obvious to most observers that he was not healthy, long before he actually admitted as much. Halladay is not the only offender. Plenty of other players around MLB are doing the same thing right now, and just haven't gotten to the point of giving up and admitting to their injury. Some of those players are currently baffling us with slow starts and one of those players is Phillies starter Cole Hamels. Hamels has a glaring flaw in his skill set so far this year. His control is completely out of character, as he hasn't thrown this many balls since his 2006 rookie season. Combine that with erosion of his strikeout rate and there is reason to be concerned. Hamels is 0-3 at home with a 4.71 ERA and this Cleveland squad is very capable of putting up a crooked number. Hamel’s teammate Halladay has gotten all the scrutiny and maybe this is a case where Hamels is trying to pitch through something to help the team because he knew Halladay's situation was worse. Hamels did complain of shoulder stiffness early this spring. Results since then strongly suggest that all is not well. Simply put, a healthy Cole Hamels does not pitch like this.
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Corey Kluber’s surface stats are not pretty and that provides us with an outstanding buy low opportunity. A look under the hood and there is something profitable here. Kluber’s 5.64 ERA so far is more a product of bad luck than poor pitching. Kluber has a 37%/65% hit-rate/strand-rate and that has been the main culprit for his misleading ERA. A 3.85 xERA and 20/6 K/BB through 22 innings indicate there's a decent chance at some good numbers in this matchup against a Philadelphia lineup with the third-lowest OPS in the NL (.678). Nice overlay in this one gets the call.
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ST. LOUIS -1½ +104 over N.Y. MetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We almost always refrain from backing a pitcher coming off a complete game gem because what follows is usually a letdown but Shelby Miller is different. Miller is as good a prospect as Stephen Strasburg was when he came up without all the hype. Miller’s skills are electric with 51 K’s against just 11 walks in 46 frames. His WHIP is down to 0.88, his ERA is 1.58 and his xERA of 2.41 is tops in the majors. Miller is coming off a one-hit, 13-strikeout performance against the Rockies but he’s not going to need to be nearly as fine here because his mound opponent is Shaun Marcum.
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Marcum hasn't been the same in four appearances since coming back from a neck injury. His fastball is topping out at only 85 mph and he hasn't been able to make it to the 5th inning in any start yet, resulting in three disasters. Marcum comes in with a BAA of .400 after allowing 24 hits in just 14.2 frames. There are more concerns than a velocity decrease also. Marcum’s batted ball profile is one of the more disturbing one’s in MLB. A 31%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is all the proof one needs to see that Marcum is laboring to get through each inning. With six walks in 15 frames, a 2.05 WHIP, a 8.59 ERA and those ugly batted ball rates, this is the profile of a pitcher in real peril. Marcum has been regressing badly for years and if the Mets weren’t playing him 4M this season, they probably wouldn’t even be using him. Instead, the Mets are trying to squeeze a few more innings out of this bust and that allows us to cash in. Cardinals roll again.
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San Francisco +102 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Ramon Ortiz took the hill against the Red Sox in Toronto in his last start, he escaped with a five-inning, four hit, one-run performance. It was his first start back in the majors since 2011. Ortiz has made just 15 starts since 2007. He’s a 40-year old stiff with poor skills that is fill-in fodder until the Blue Jays get some healthy bodies back. He’s here because of experience only. In that five-inning performance against Boston, Ortiz was in trouble every inning. He walked five batters while striking out just one and overall in his two appearances (one out of the pen) Ortiz has a 1.80 WHIP. Ortiz last provided profit potential in 2002 and spent 2012 in AAA-Scranton-Wilkes-Barre (NYY affiliate) rotation, with 27 starts. Now at age 40, with one good 2013 start at AAA-Buffalo and one extremely lucky one at this level, Ortiz gets another start and he’s favored over Ryan Vogelsong and the World Series champs.
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The Giants are going to wake up this morning and see that Ortiz is favored over them. Not only is that ludicrous, it’s a complete insult to Ryan Vogelsong and the entire team. The Giants may even hang up the betting line on their clubhouse bulletin board. Ryan Vogelsong has a rough 7.78 ERA and 1.73 WHIP after 39 IP but those marks have been inflated by a 37% hit%, a 58% strand % and 19% hr/f. That is all pure bad luck. Vogelsong’s skills have been rock solid with 37 K’s in 39 frames, 15 walks, and a 41% groundball rate. Vogelsong has plenty of good starts left in him while Ortiz has none. If you make one bet today, this should be it.
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Kansas City +104 over L.A. ANGELSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals are two games over .500 while the Halos are nine games under and now the league’s worst pitcher is favored for the team that is nine games under? Say what? Barry Enright is the best option the Angels have in a poor group of potential call-ups. Enright won over Aaron Heilman and Armando Gallarraga not because he was pitching well, but because the other two were pitching so poorly. As a result, Enright got the promotion and a break when his call-up coincided with a game in Chicago against the light hitting White Sox. All Enright did was walk five batters in 3.1 innings and was yanked after allowing five runs. Enright had a 3.91 ERA in 99 innings for Arizona in 2010 and that was his last season in the majors that he threw any significant amount of innings. The past two seasons in the majors were both short-lived as Enright threw a combined 40 innings over that span and posted a 7.41 ERA and 14.73 ERA respectively. We’re not even sure why this guy is still around. He has the worst set of skills we’ve ever seen. Enright’s MLB profile over 146 career innings reads as follows: a 26% groundball rate, a 29% line-drive rate and a 45% fly-ball rate. He also has a low strikeout rate (76 K’s in 146 IP) and a high walk total (50 BB in 146 IP). Enright is a disaster waiting to happen. That moderate success he had in Arizona three years ago was a complete mirage and he’s been dealing batting practice ever since. This is not major league material, instead it’s prime fade material and the fact that he’s favored over anyone is ludicrous.
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Wade Davis is a risk too. He’s been bouncing around between the starter’s role and the bullpen for years. He’s always had decent skills but he has not been able to sustain any consistency whatsoever. However, he still has 28 K’s in 35 innings this year and has been hurt by an unlucky 71% strand rate. Even more interesting is that the total in this game is 8½ and that strongly suggests one of these pitchers is likely to throw a decent game. The chances of Enright throwing a good game are about the same as Manti Te'o’s girlfriend showing up at his NFL debut. This is a pure fade on Enright.
Wunderdog
Houston at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -1.5
The Tigers' soft start had many puzzled, but they have since answered the bell by going 12-5 over their last 17 games. The Astros are losers of 213 games the last two seasons, and appear headed for a similar destiny this season. Houston isn't just losing games, they have for the most part been uncompetitive. Since the 2011 season the Astros have been a dog of +200 or more 34 time with just six wins, and stand at just 10-24 when getting +1.5. The odds here are the greatest in the period for the Astros, who have been a poor runline bet even as low as +200 on the moneyline. Look for Detroit to lay another pasting on this hapless team, and play Detroit on the runline.
Joe Gavazzi
Pittsburgh -120
In this game, we are looking to reverse a lot of negative history for Pittsburgh. Milwaukee is 30-9 in this series including 14-4 at this site. But after winning 9 straight games against the Pirates, Pittsburgh has now captured 2 of the last 3 meetings. Consider it to be a changing of the guard between these Division rivals. As one might expect, the starters history favors Milwaukee. In 8 recent starts against Pittsburgh, Gallardo has a 2.05 ERA including 17 2/3 scoreless innings in going 3-0 from this mound. In Rodriquez last 3 starts vs. Milwaukee, he has posted an 8.79 ERA. Just as the series history, those numbers are about to change based on the current form of these teams and pitchers. After last night's 4-3 Pittsburgh victory, Milwaukee limps in at 2-10 in May being outscored 69-43. For the season, Gallardo has a 4.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a 6.30 ERA in his last 2 starts. Rodriquez has always been among the best home pitchers in baseball. As he takes the mound tonight, he does so with a record of 4-1 and 1.90 ERA in his last 7 trips to this hill. History continues to reverse with the Pirate win tonight.
Big Kat Sports
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Take: Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals will look to win their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers when the two teams meet in a rubber match tonight at Dodger Stadium. Washington won Game 1 6-2 behind a strong pitching performance by Jordan Zimmermann on Monday night but were shut down by Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday in a 2-0 loss. Ross Detwiler, who broke a small losing streak in a win over the Cubs on Friday, has been pretty good for the Nationals this season, posting a 2-3 record with a 2.53 ERA. He has 5 quality starts in his 7 games this season and has had some success against the Dodgers in his career, going 1-1 with a 1.08 WHIP while holding Los Angeles to just a .208 batting average. Detwiler will be opposed by Zack Greinke, who will be making his first start since retuning from a broken collarbone he suffered in a fight with Carlos Quentin of the Padres, Greinke made one pain free rehab start but was hit around a bit by the High A kids, allowing 8 runs and 6 hits in 4.2 innings pitched. We’re not putting much stock in this pitching line but it may show that Zack isn’t quite 100%. The Nationals, who trail the Braves by 1 game for first place in the NL East have been playing good ball after getting off to a slow start to their season. They are 7-2 in their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home and have won 5 of their last 6 games on the road when the oddsmakers have set a total of 7-8½ in that contest. They have also been excellent over the past two seasons on Wednesday’s for whatever reason, winning 28 of 36 games. The Dodgers, who have one of the highest payrolls in the league, have really struggled out of the gate this season and manager Don Mattingly may be the one that pays for it. He wasn’t hired by this ownership group and the team is really underachieving under him. They are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall and have won just 1 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They are also riding a 4 game losing streak in games when they have been listed as a favorite of -150 or less. Pair those numbers with the fact that the Nats are 8-0 in Detwiler’s last 8 starts against a team with a losing record and we’ll take the plus money on Washington tonight as the numbers would indicate that we have a very live dog on our hands here.
Bryan Power
Kansas City vs. LA Angels
Pick: Over
I won with the Angels last night in an easy 6-2 win, but I'm not as sold on them here in Wednesday's rubber match with the Royals. That being said, I do expect them to be effective offensively once again. The only issue is starter Barry Enright keeping Kansas City in check. I expect plenty of runs to be scored in this one and for the game to fly past the number......
Last night marked the first time all year that Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton all homered in the same game. This after the Royals scored 11 runs in Monday's series opener. The Angels are 19-9 Over in night games this season.
This starting pitching matchup lends itself to an Over play. Royals starter Wade Davis has a 9.19 ERA his last three starts (2.042 WHIP). He's allowed 7 ER or more in two of those starts, neither time going more than five innings. Sadly, Angels starter Enright has been even worse in his three appearances this season. He made his first start last Friday and allowed five runs in 3.3 IP. Including a pair of stints coming out of the bullpen, his ERA is 11.57 as he's allowed 8 ER in 6.3 IP. This game should feature plenty of runs.
Teddy Covers
NY Mets vs. St. Louis
Pick: Over
"It's definitely the best game I've thrown in my life.” That was Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller’s quote following his truly dominant 13 strikeout, one hit complete game shutout over the Rockies in his last outing.
But Miller matched his career high in pitches thrown in that contest; and it’s only the second time all season he’s averaged less than 16 pitches per inning. Coming off the ‘best game of his life’, I’m expecting significant ‘regression to the mean’ from Miller this evening.
Mets starter Shaun Marcum is an even stronger ‘bet against’ candidate this evening. Since starting the season on the DL, Marcum has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his starts, with an 8.59 ERA and a whopping .400 batting average against. Mets manager Terry Collins: “I think Shaun tried to hurry through the rehab and get up here because he knew we needed help. I think we've got to run him out there again because, as I said the last start, he's basically towards the end of spring training.”
It’s surely worth noting that Marcum has a miserable recent track record against the Cardinals, including two ugly losses in the 2011 NLCS and another poor showing against them at Busch Stadium last year. St Louis flew Over the total all by themselves yesterday, their third straight ‘Over’ cash, while the Mets are 24-11-1 to the Over so far in 2013, the second strongest Over team (behind Oakland) in all of baseball.
Dave Price
Milwaukee Brewers +113
Yovani Gallaro has had Pittsburgh's number. The right-hander is 10-1 with an ERA of 2.27 in 15 starts versus the Pirates. The Brewers have won 14 of those, including 9 straight. The Brewers are 21-8 in Gallardo's last 29 starts overall, including 6-2 in his last 8 road starts. Wandy Rodriguez is 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA in 24 starts versus Milwaukee. He is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus the Brewers and gave up 7 earned runs in 3 2-3 innings against them earlier this season. Bet the Brew Crew.
Steve Janus
St Louis Cardinals -1.5
The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. They have won 11 of 13 overall and have completely dominated the first two games of their 4-game series with the Mets. New York on the other hand has lost 5 straight. The Mets offense is in a complete funk right now. They have scored 4 or fewer runs in 9 straight games. With St Louis sending out Shelby Miller, the Mets will be lucky to score 2 runs tonight. Miller is coming off a complete game shutout against a very good Rockies offense. He's now 5-2 with an impressive 1.58 ERA and 0.876 WHIP.
While the Mets offense figures to stay in their slump, the Cardinals should be able to pile on several runs against Shaun Marcum. In three starts this season, Marcum is 0-2 with a 8.31 ERA and 1.923 WHIP. Adding even more value here is the fact that Marcum is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA in 7 career starts vs St Louis.
It's easy to see why the Cardinals are such massive money line favorites. Instead of laying heavy juice, I feel the better play is on the -1.5 run line. St Louis has won by 2+ runs in 4 of their last 5 games, while the Mets have lost by 2+ runs in 4 of their last 5.
Jeff Alexander
Cardinals -1.5 +101
Mets have dropped 5 straight with 4 of those losses coming by at least 3 runs. They'll have trouble getting off the snide tonight with St. Louis marching Shelby Miller to the mound. The righty is 5-2 with a 1.58 ERA. I like his chances of outdueling Shawn Marcum, who is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA. Marcum hasn't had much luck against the Cards. He has a 6.25 ERA in 7 starts against them and his teams have lost his last 4 starts versus the Redbirds by an average of 4.25 runs.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -132
The Chicago Cubs have a big edge on the mound Wednesday with Jeff Samardzija over Jon Garland. I'll back the Cubs at home at an excellent price as a result.
Samardzija is one of the best young starters in the game. He has posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.253 WHIP with 57 strikeouts over 48 2/3 innings in eight starts in 2013. He was the team's opening day starter for good reason.
Jon Garland is washed up and far past his prime. The veteran right-hander has gone 3-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three.
The Rockies are 16-36 in their last 52 games as an underdog. Colorado is 0-8 in its last 8 games following a win. The Cubs are 4-0 in Samardzija's last 4 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Cubs Wednesday.
Joseph D'Amico
Memphis +4½
Think back to when LeBron James was with Cleveland. Now you know how Kevin Durant feels. The Thunder averaged 105.7 PPG during the regular season and are posting a mere 91 PPG in this series. In the absence of Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson is putting up 13.3 PPG this round. Westbrook accounted for 23.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 7.4 APG, and shot 80% from the line in the regular season. But more than that, the standout Guard was the jab in 1-2 punch that made OKC so successful. The Thunder are 2-7 ATS their L9 overall, including an 0-4 ATS mark their L4 games played at home. Memphis has covered 9 straight contests. Five players are averaging 9 or more PPG in the Playoff's as super-stars, Gasol, Randolph, and Conley are combining for 56.1 PPG, 21.4 RPG, and 12.4 APG. The key reason why giving this squad this many points is a mistake isn't because they have covered all 4 games in this series, not because they are 7-2 ATS the L9 vs. OKC, but it is because they have been outrebounded 3 of the 4 meetings and still lead 3-1. The Road Team is 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS the L6 games played at the Thunder and 16-4-1 ATS their L21 games played overall. The Thunder are 1-6 ATS their L7 games played on 1 days rest and 0-5 ATS their L5 games vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600.
NHL Predictions
Blackhawks Team Total Over 2.5
The Chicago Blackhawks are 40-7-6 on the year including their first round series against Minnesota which they won in 5 games. The Red Wings beat Anaheim in 7 games and are 28-18-9 on the season. Chicago has been dominant at home with a 21-3-3 record overall, while the Red Wings are just 13-10-5 on the road. These two teams met 4 times this season with the Blackhawks winning all 4 meetings (two in shootout and one in OT). They scored 3, 7, 2, and 2 goals in those games. The Blackhawks have scored 5, 3 2, 5, and 2 goals in these playoffs. Detroit allowed 3+ goals in 5 of their 7 games vs Anaheim. Chicago was 5th in the NHL with 74 goals in 24 home games this regular season. Chicago is rested and ready to go against one of their Western Conference rivals and I think they will pile the shots on Howard tonight and get 3+ goals. Take the OVER 2.5 goals at a good price.