MTi Sports
Athletics at Rangers
Play: Rangers
Since last June, the Rangers are 14-0 as a favorite after a loss in which they scored fewer than five runs, winning by an average of a staggering 6.8 runs per game. Note that EVERY game was a run-line winner. Consider the Rangers over the A’s and take them on the run-line.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -2 over Boston
Without trying to sound redundant, the 76ers huge rebounding edge is becoming more and more problematic for Boston with each passing game. Now the series switches to Philadelphia, where the C’s are fortunate to not be down 0-2 and where the 76ers have not lost in this year’s playoffs. Both games in Boston were decided by one point, meaning that all those minutes and aches and pains are piling for this again Celtic squad. During half-time of the last game in Boston, Charles Barkley suggested that the Celtics lack energy and focus. Philadelphia does not. They’re energetic, they’re focused and they’re playing hard on every possession. Boston’s offensive struggles continue to be a major factor. The Celtics defense can’t keep holding up when the offense keeps going cold for prolonged stretches. The 76ers defense can play too, they have a much stronger bench and they’re going to dominate the boards. Frankly, this is a cheap lay on the superior team at home that is playing with so much more confidence than this tired intruder. Play: Philadelphia -2 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Tony George
LA Lakers +8
Making this very short and sweet today. I like the big points. LA is a veteran team who will not go quietly in the night here and with Kobe, Gasol, Artest (World Peace...wahtever) all with pride and talent, I like LA to bounce back here and put up a huge fight. I am not saying they will win it, but I expect an embarrassed team who has veteran experience against a young and very good team to make a stand tonight. I am grabbing the big points here and skipping all the stats as I have seen Kobe and company over many years with their back against the wall come up big, and expect it again.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +118 over N.Y. RANGERS
New Jersey dominated the first two periods of game one and there’s no reason they can’t dominate again. The Rangers continue to get by with great goaltending. When you wager on New York, you’re essentially wagering on Henrik Lundqvist because on its own, New York is the second best team on the ice. The Devils aren’t frustrated. They’ve adjusted to every style of play all season long and into the playoffs. New York has an edge in net and that’s it. The Rangers appear tired after back-to-back seven game series with one of those games going into triple OT. No team forced to play seven-game series in each of the first two rounds has gone on to win the Stanley Cup. The Rangers overachieved all season and it’s going to catch up to them. Eventually those blocked shots that the Rangers employ as one of their strategies to winning are going to have the same impact on them as they do on a boxer getting jabbed round after round. Ultimately the boxer hits the canvas and the same fate likely awaits this team that keeps getting outplayed. If Lundqvist beats us, so be it, as we’re going with the best of it again. Play: New Jersey +118 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Fargo
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
The Orioles won last night over the Yankees and were able to maintain their tie for first place in the American League East with Tampa Bay. Baltimore won just 30 road games all of last season and they are already over a third of the way there this year as they come into this series with an 11-5 record on the highway. The biggest reason has been the bullpen as the offense has been average while the starters have been below average and we will see the latter taking place again tonight. The Royals have won four straight games and after an extremely bad start to the season, they have turned things around. After opening the year 3-14, Kansas City is 12-6 over its last 18 games and because the quality of the division as a whole is lacking, it is just 4.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. The Royals play at home has been dreadful as they started 0-10 but are coming off a winning homestand in their last one. The big issue has been the starting pitching but that changes tonight. Felipe Paulino gets the call for the Royals and even though he has made just two starts, he has been fairly solid. He shut out the Yankees for six innings in his season opener and while he allowed four runs in his last outing against the White Sox, two of those came on just one pitch, a bases clearing triple in the sixth inning. After a slow start after he came over to Kansas City last season, he caught fire late and he has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. The Orioles counter with Tommy Hunter who has been extremely inconsistent this season. He has three quality starts to his credit but he has four very bad outings on top of that to push his ERA to 5.14 on the season. All three of his road starts have been non-quality efforts where he has a 9.56 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over 16 innings. The big issue has been the long ball as Hunter has allowed seven home runs in those 16 innings. The Royals are 4-1 in their last five games against right-handed starters.
Jimmy Boyd
Seattle Mariners -113
The Mariners have the edge on the mound with Hernandez, who is carrying a 2.29 ERA through 8 starts. Compare that to Cleveland's Jimenez, who has a 5.17 ERA through 7 starts. The fact the M's are favored on the road versus a team with a winning record is significant. After all, they are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 6-0 in Hernandez's last 6 starts as a road favorite. The Indians, meanwhile, are 9-21 in their last 30 games as a home underdog and 0-4 in Jimenez's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Mariners have won 4 of their last 5 in Cleveland, and I expect them to have continued success tonight with their ace on the hill.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles at San Diego
Pick: Under 6.5
The San Diego Padres own the dubious distinction of being the worst team in the NL, as they enter tonight's game with a record of 13-24. It is hard to win games when your team is batting .223 and through 37 games your team is at a major league low 14 home runs. To put how inept that is in perspective, the next worse NL team has hit 24 homers. What has kept them in a lot of games is a rotation that has a combined 3.40 ERA, while the Dodgers rank No. 2 in baseball coming in, so runs will be at a premium in this one. After an explosive start Matt Kemp is no longer hitting, and has not homered in 11 games, driving in just 3 runs, so the Dodgers' offense has been slowed. Clayton Richard has been great pitching at home as a dog, and with no offense that has led to a 9-0-2 mark for the Padres behind him as a home dog. Play the UNDER.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Dodgers -114 over SAN DIEGO: Last night i felt it was a good spot to go against the Dodgers and it was a winner for me. Tonight i look for them to get back on track. Chris Capuano has not been known in the past as a solid pitcher, but he has been one this year. Chris is 5-0 with a 2.06 ERA overall this year, including a 3-0 mark with an 0.44 ERA and an 0.68 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Chris is a lefty and the Padres are just 2-13 vs lefties this year. San Diego has hit just .218 and have scored a mere 2.6 rp/9 off of lefties at home this year. Overall the Padres have hit just .209 and have scored just 2.96 rpg at home this year, so Chris should have little trouble posting another good outing here. The Pads will send Clayton Richard to the mound tonight and they are just 1-6 in his starts this year, while he is 1-5 with a 5.32 ERA. He has pitched better at home, with a 2.21 ERA, but he still is just 1-2 in his home starts thanks to poor run support. Capuano has struggled with the Padres of late (1-1, 5.20 ERA in L% vs them), while Clayton has done a good job vs the Dodgers (2-1, 1.88 ERA in L5 vs them), but still the Dodgers are the better team and with the struggles the Pads have vs lefties, LA should make it 7-1 vs San Diego after tonight.
Boston/ Tampa Bay Under 8.5: Couple of very nice trends to start this p[lay off with. The Under is 38-13 in Tampa's last 51 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the UNDER is also 17-3-1 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 21 home starts. Clay Bucholz has really struggled this year, but his is off his best performance yet, getting a quality start vs Cleveland in his last time out. Let's also note that he has pitched very well at the Trop with a 2.23 ERA in his 5 starts here, plus he will be taking on a Tampa Offense that may not be fully focused as they come back from a long road trip, so this could end up being his best start of the year. As you can see above, Jeremy Hellickson's home games are usually low scoring and this year is no exception as his home starts have gone 3-0-1 UNDER with an average of just 5 rpg being scored. Jeremy has a 1.42 ERA in his home starts this year, while in his career he has a 2.31 ERA in this park. Boston hit Jeremy pretty hard at Boston earlier in the year, so you can expect him to make adjustments here. Both pens have been solid of late, as Boston has a 1.04 pen ERA in their last 5 games, while the Rays have a 2.04 pen ERA over the same stretch. This one should post no more than 6 runs.
St Louis/ San Francisco Over 6.5: Last night had the Giant's Rockies game Over 6.5 and it was a winner. Come come right back with another Over in this stadium. Just too low an OU line here, considering how good the cardinal offense is and how bad Garcia has pitched of late. Jaime Garcia comes in with a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts, while he has a 4.44 ERA on the road this year. should Garcia not last that long in this one, then the ball will be handed to a struggling Cardinal pen that has a 6.19 ERA in their last 5 games. The Giants really struggle to score at home (3 rpg), but it's getting better as they have averaged 4 rpg in their last 5 at home. Madison Bumgarner has a solid 1.74 ERA at home this year and his home starts have averaged 6 rpg, but still this Cardinals offense knows how to put runs on the board as they have averaged 5.5 rpg overall and 4.7 rpg on the road. John Jay is out for this one, but they still have Holliday, Berkman and Freese, plus Beltran should be back in the lineup as well, so they are still a formidable group. I look for at least 8 runs in this one.
WASHINGTON -145 over Pittsburgh: Boy i really hate having to play on Washington (Phillies fan here), but there are times when i feel i must and this is one of them. The Nats lost 6-1 to the Padres yesterday with their Ace on the mound and I expect them to bounce back tonight. Gio Gonzalez has been awesome at home this year, going 2-0 with an 0.43 ERA and an .052 WHIP in his 3 home starts this year. His numbers shouldn't drop all that much vs a Pirate team that scores just 2.4 rpg for Bedard, while on the road this team has averaged just 3.1 rpg. The Nats score a bit more at home (3.6 rpg) than the Pirates do on the road, but Washington hits well at home (.251), while the Pirates hit just .225 on the road. Erik Bedard has pitched well this year, with a 2.47 ERA, but lack of run support has his record at 2-4. I don't think Pitt will score enough runs tonight to help him out here either. Look for the Nats to bounce back here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia +141 over CHICAGO: The Phils have not had a great year thus far and are starting to feel the pressure from the home crowd and sometimes getting out on the road will help a team. Philly has won 3 in a row and while Chicago is at home and has an advantage on the mound (Garza vs Kendrick), I look for the phils to fight hard in this one, know a win will get them back to the .500 mark.
Colorado/ Arizona Over 10.5: If the Rockies weren't off such a long trip then this play might have been higher, but sometimes it takes a team a game or so to get their timing back. Still Rockie home games have averaged 12'6 rpg, while Moyer's 4 home starts have averaged 11.8 rpg. Patrick Corbin has a 7.00 ERA on the road, with those games averaging 10.5 rpg. Should be a fun one tonight.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia Phillies as they take on the Cubs in Chicago in the first of a two game mini-series set to start at 8:05 PM ET. The Phillies then return home for inter-league play with the also struggling Boston Red Sox for a three game set . The Phillies have won four of the last five games, albeit against Triple AAA look alikes in San Diego and Houston. However, I did correctly identify San Diego as a huge +210 dog winner over the Nationals and Strasburg Tuesday. Be sure to check the MLB with John Ryan thread several times a day to get the latest updates and plays.
Phillies are one game under .500 at 18-19 and in last place trailing the National League East division leading Atlanta Braves by five games. The Cubs too, are in last place, trailing the National league Central division leading St. Louis Cardinals by six games. The Phillies certainly are the better team and will have the potential to make a run for the division crown or a wild card playoff spot. The Cubs are mired in the historic curse and are going to once again have a losing season.
Based on my season long projections, the Phillies still have about a 50% probability of making the playoffs while the Cubs have less than an 8% probability of gaining postseason play this season. The Phillies need to start winning now though as it has already been made public a possible trade moving starting ace Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino to Toronto. So, the next 30 days will be critical for the Phillies team in determining whether they become sellers or buyers as the July tradeline approaches.
There is a strong and proven money making system supporting the Phillies to win this game. It has produced a 36-23 record and made 33.2 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on NL road teams that are average hitting teams batting between .255 to .269 for the season and with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season and now facing a solid starting pitcher that has posted an ERA of 3.00 or less for the season. The best part of this system is that it has averaged a +157 dog play.
These types of systems show a solid history proving why it is imperative to be playing a majority of dogs in MLB. I have coined these types of systems ?Black Jack? systems drawing on the analogy to the highly popular casino game. The big difference though is that at the casino you have essentially 50:50 odds, whereas in this particular case the system pays you $1.57 for every winning $1.00 hand played.
So, in the case of this system, you played 59 hands of Black Jack and did very well winning 36 hands. Had you bet $100 per hand, your profit would be a solid $1300.00 for the session. However, this system would have paid you back $3,320 per $100 hand played or about 2.5 times as much profit. No casino will ever provide a pay out greater than 50:50 for a winning Black Jack hand, but this system has produced some very real results.
There is no line yet established for this game, but I am anticipating one that sees Philadelphia installed as +135 dog. Their starter Kyle Kendrick is a long relief starter and is making a spot start for this game. Moreover, he was hammered in his last relief appearance and the public will naturally avoid him at all costs. However, he has proven to be a solid starter and has pitched far more gems than disasters in his career. Moreover, he has proven to bounce back strongly after a poor outing in seasons past and I fully expect him to deliver tonight.
Take the Phillies as a 5* Titan.
Sean Murphy
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Seattle Mariners 1 St Half
The Mariners have scuffed their heels on their current road trip, but that's not unexpected as it has featured stops in New York and Boston, where even the best teams tend to struggle.
This is an excellent spot for the M's to rebound, and the best way for us to support them is with a first five innings bet, as I'm confident we'll see a terrific performance from Felix Hernandez, and a solid bounce-back effort from the offense. It's Seattle's bullpen that I'm not so sure about, but that's not an issue we have to worry about over the first five innings.
Felix Hernandez was hit hard in his last start, allowing 11 hits and four earned runs over 6 2/3 innings of work against the Yankees. It's worth noting that he was cruising along until the sixth inning of that game, and is certainly capable of rebounding versus an Indians club he's had plenty of success against over the years.
In fact, King Felix has given up a grand total of only two earned runs in his last four starts against the Tribe, covering a span of 28 2/3 innings pitched. He's posted a ridiculous 38:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch, while giving up only 22 hits and one home run.
The Indians have seemingly gotten back on track at the plate, having scored 10 runs over their last two games (we cashed with them in both victories), but those performances came against an awful Twins pitching staff. They're taking a major step up in class against Hernandez tonight.
Ubaldo Jimenez will take the ball for the Indians. He's not having a good year by any stretch, going 3-3 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.78 WHIP to date. Jimenez has turned in only one quality outing over his last three trips to the hill, holding the Rangers scoreless over seven innings back on May 6th. However, it's worth noting the struggled with his command on that night as well, issuing five walks. He's handed out 16 free passes over his last three starts.
After being held to just one run in back-to-back losses in Boston, you can be sure that the Mariners are chomping at the bit to get back to the ballpark tonight.
It's interesting to note that while the Indians took two of three games in Seattle back in April, they didn't manage to lead any of those three contests after five innings. The Mariners went 2-0-1 from that perspective. Behind a strong start from Felix Hernandez, I'm confident we'll see the M's carry a lead into the sixth inning tonight.
Teddy Covers
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
Cincinnati’s Mike Leake got off to a rough start last year, with an ERA over 5.00 through April and May. We’re seeing more of the same in 2012 with Leake still winless through his first six outings. Leake’s strikeouts are down – only 16 K’s in 31.2 innings. His walks are up. Opponents are hitting .313 against him, compared to .250 for the full season last year. The Nationals battered Leake for six runs in three innings in his last start, and he’s thrown only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill.
Leake’s numbers stand in sharp contrast with Johan Santana’s current form. Since getting lit up by Atlanta back on April 17th, Santana has thrown four consecutive quality starts, striking out 28 batters while allowing only 20 hits and seven runs in the process. Santana has owned the Reds, winning every previous decision against them, and he’s got a 1.90 ERA in four starts at Citi Field so far this season.
The Reds were an overvalued commodity for the entirety of the 2011 campaign; ranked #24 in the majors in profitability. We’re seeing more of the same in 2012. The Mets, on the other hand, are #2 in MLB this year in home profitability and #4 overall. That’s a trend worth riding tonight with their ace on the hill! Take New York.
Dave Price
Houston Astros -113
The Astros hold the edge on the mound tonight with Bud Norris. The right-hander is 3-1 (6-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.95 this season and 1-0 (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.29 at home. Milwaukee's Randy Wolf is 2-3 (3-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.64 and 1-1 (1-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 8.81 on the road. The Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are 4-11 in their last 15 road games. Take Houston.
Jeff Alexander
San Francisco Giants -102
The Giants will be in good hands with Bumgarner on the bump. The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant at home where he has won his last eight starts while compiling a 1.00 ERA and striking out 53 in 54 innings. Going back further, the Giants are 12-1 in his last 13 home starts. The Cards are 0-4 in Garcia's last 4 starts and he's been touched for 11 runs in 11 2-3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The Cards have dropped 5 of their last 7 in San Francisco and I expect their struggles on the bay to continue with the way Bumgarner has been dealing.
Black Widow
Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 10.5
Two starting pitchers who are really struggling this season square off tonight inside hitter-friendly Coors Field. I look for the runs to be plentiful as both Pat Corbin and Jamie Moyer get rocked in this one. Corbin is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA this season, including 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two road starts. This will be his first-ever start inside Coors, so I highly doubt he's looking forward to it. Moyer is 1-3 with a 4.65 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.40 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran left-hander should have retired instead of coming back another season for this kind of embarrassment. Colorado is hitting .282 and scoring 6.5 runs/game at home this season, while opponents are hitting .314 and scoring 6.4 runs/game inside Coors. Take the OVER 10.5 runs here.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Lakers +8
It's going to be easy for everyone to load up on the Thunder in Game 2 after the beating they put on the Lakers in Game 1, but I wouldn't be so fast to pull the trigger if I was you.
Los Angeles is one of the few teams that can take a beating and come right back out the next night and look like a completely different team. They did it twice in the first round against Denver. After losing 84-99 in Game 3 at Denver, the Lakers came back and won Game 4 92-88. They got killed 98-113 in Game 6, only to win 96-87 in Game 7.
The Lakers were really in a tough spot in Game 1, they just used all of their energy in that huge Game 7 win over the Nuggets, and ran into a Thunder team that hadn't played in over a week. The fact that the Lakers got blown out in Game 1 actually helped them, as they were able to rest up their starters in the fourth quarter. They also didn't waste a lot of energy defensively in that game, which is why the Thunder shot 53% from the field.
I'm not saying the Lakers are going to win Game 2, but I think its going to come down to the wire. The Thunder simply couldn't miss in Game 1. Odds are they won't make as many shots the second time around, especially now that the Lakers have a better understanding of what they want to do offensively.
Los Angeles is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.