SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Phoenix (8-3 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (9-2, 7-4 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers look to build on their series-opening blowout when they face the Suns in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals at Staples Center.
Kobe Bryant had 21 of his 40 points in the third quarter Monday, and Los Angeles plowed to a 128-107 series-opening victory as a six-point home favorite. Pau Gasol added 21 points on 10-for-13 shooting, while Lamar Odom came off the bench and had 19 points and 19 rebounds for L.A., which shot a whopping 58 percent, hitting 51 of 88 shots.
The Lakers, seeded first in the West, are on a seven-game tear in the playoffs (6-1 ATS), having not lost since Game 4 of its first-round series with Oklahoma City.
Phoenix, which was on a 22-4 SU roll (19-6-1 ATS) entering this series, shot a respectable 49.4 percent (39 of 79), but facing the league’s best three-point shooting defense, the Suns hit just 5 of 22 from beyond the arc (22.7 percent). Amare Stoudemire had 23 points, Jason Richardson scored 15, and Steve Nash had 13 points and 13 assists in defeat.
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU and ATS in its five meetings with Phoenix this season. The Lakers have won eight of the last 10 SU in this rivalry and 10 of the last 14 ATS. L.A. has covered in four straight at home against the Suns – all double-digit blowouts – and the home team is on a 6-1 ATS run. Finally, the SU winner is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 Suns-Lakers clashes, with the winner cashing in all five meetings this year.
These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 (4-3 ATS), and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in all 11 of the Suns’ playoff games this year and in 20 in a row overall for Phoenix, and the SU winner is 9-2 ATS in L.A.’s 11 playoff contests this spring.
Los Angeles has gone 40-7 inside Staples Center this season, but just 20-25-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by nearly nine ppg (104.2-95.3) and outshooting visitors 46.3 percent to 43.7 percent. The Lakers are 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) at home in the playoffs.
Phoenix is 26-21 SU (27-20 ATS) on the highway this season (4-2 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing a shade less at 106.5 ppg (45.9 percent).
The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six following a SU win (4-0 last four) and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference finals starts, but they remain in pointspread ruts of 6-11-1 at home (all as a chalk), 4-11 after a spread-cover and 5-15-1 after a day off.
The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last six conference finals outings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU loss of more than 10 points. On the flip side, they still own a bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 34-17-1 overall, 5-2 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-0 after a non-cover, 5-0 after a SU loss, 20-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 36-15-1 after a day off.
Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 7-1-1 overall (4-0-1 last five), 4-0 at home, 6-2 as a chalk, 4-0-1 after a day off and 4-0-1 after a SU win, though the under has hit in nine of the Lakers’ last dozen conference finals games. Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall and 5-2 after a non-cover, but the Suns also sport “under” rolls of 7-2-1 in roadies, 6-2-1 as a ‘dog, 7-3 as a road pup of five to 10½ points and 9-3 after a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over/under has alternated in the last seven meetings overall, with Monday’s game flying over the 210½-point price. However, the total has gone high in nine of the last 12 between these two at Staples Center (4-1 last five).
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (23-16) at L.A. Dodgers (22-17)
Three days after getting swept by Los Angeles at home, the Padres make the short trek north to Dodger Stadium looking for payback when they send Jon Garland (4-2, 1.88 ERA) to the mound in the opener of a two-game series between the top two teams in the N.L. West. Meanwhile, Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.40) will try to lead the Dodgers to their 10th straight victory.
San Diego is coming off Tuesday’s 7-6, 12-inning loss to the Giants, losing four of five games on its homestand (all against N.L. West opponents). On the bright side, the Padres went 5-1 on their most recent road trip – the only loss coming in extra innings at Houston – and they’ve won seven of eight on the highway overall. Additionally, the Friars are on positive runs of 20-8 against winning teams, 9-4 on Wednesday and 8-3 in series openers.
Los Angeles dumped the Astros 7-3 on Tuesday, with Manny Ramirez, James Loney and Casey Blake all contributing two RBIs. The Dodgers, who started the season 8-14, have won a season-high nine in a row, and they’re 14-3 in their last 17 games to move five games over .500 and pull within one game of San Diego for first place in the N.L. West. Los Angeles is 12-6 at Dodger Stadium, including 5-1 in the last six.
Joe Torre’s troops have also won 11 of 12 against right-handed starters, four straight series openers and 56 of 82 against the N.L. West. However, the Dodgers have dropped 13 of 18 on Wednesday.
Los Angeles went to San Diego last weekend and scored victories of 4-3, 4-1 and 1-0, winning the latter contest on Sunday despite managing just two hits. The Dodgers are 11-6 in the last 17 head-to-head matchups overall and 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Hollywood.
Garland and Ortiz matched up on Friday at Petco Park, and even though Garland (two runs allowed in six innings) outpitched Ortiz (three runs allowed in four innings) and left with a 3-2 lead, L.A. rallied for the 4-3 win on a two-run homer by Matt Kemp in the seventh inning. Despite the no-decision, Garland has been outstanding over his last six starts, going 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA (four earned runs in 38 innings). Prior to Friday, the Padres had won five straight games behind the veteran right-hander.
Garland is 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA in four road starts, but the Padres have scored just 11 runs in those four contests. Including Friday’s game, Garland is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. Also, Garland – who was traded from Arizona to Los Angeles last year and went 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in six starts – is 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium.
Ortiz made 14 relief appearances prior to getting the ball Friday in San Diego – his first big-league start in nearly three full years. Ortiz is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA in seven relief outings at Dodger Stadium this year, allowing nine runs on 14 hits (three home runs) in 13 2/3 innings, and for his career he’s 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA in 13 games (four starts) in Los Angeles. Against the Padres, Ortiz – who turns 37 on Sunday – is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA in six games (four starts).
San Diego is on “under” runs of 39-19-4 overall (9-1-1 last 11), 20-7-2 on the road, 34-16-2 against N.L. West foes, 27-11-4 against right-handed starters, 20-7-1 versus winning teams and 4-1 in Garland’s last five starts. L.A. carries “under” trends of 4-2 overall, 4-0 within the division and 6-2 against right-handed starters, but the over is 9-3 in the Dodgers’ last 12 at home and 4-1 in their last five on Wednesday.
Finally, the under has cashed in six straight Padres-Dodgers meetings, but the over is 9-4 in the last 13 clashes in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (28-11) at N.Y. Yankees (25-13)
The two teams with the best records in baseball meet for the second time this season, with Rays rookie Wade Davis (3-3, 3.38 ERA) matching up against the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.31) in the opener of a two-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Tampa Bay headed north to the Bronx after Tuesday afternoon’s 6-2 victory over the Indians. Since suffering their first three-game losing streak of the season, the Rays have won four in a row and six of seven, and they own baseball’s best road record (15-4). Joe Maddon’s club is on additional surges of 39-16 overall, 21-6 against the A.L. East, 21-8 against right-handed starters and 11-4 when opening a series, and they’ve won eight straight Wednesday contests.
For the second straight game Tuesday, New York squandered a 5-0 lead against the Red Sox, only unlike Monday – when they scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to steal an 11-9 victory – the Yankees’ rally fell short and they lost 7-6. New York is just 4-6 in its last 10 games, but it remains an MLB-best 13-4 at home. The defending champs are also on positive runs of 101-45 overall, 51-13 at Yankee Stadium, 45-16 against the A.L. East, 65-26 against right-handed starters, 45-12 at home versus righties and 5-1 in series openers.
These teams faced off in the first weekend of the regular season in Tampa, and the Yankees lost the opener before taking the final two games. New York is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings, including 6-0 at home. Going back several years, the Rays are just 24-59 in their last 83 trips to the Bronx (including old Yankee Stadium).
All three Yankees-Rays contests back in early April were blowouts (9-3, 10-0 and 7-3), and 15 of the last 17 meetings – including the last seven in a row – have been decided by multiple runs.
Davis is just 1-2 despite a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts, with the struggling Rays offense supporting him with just six total runs. The 24-year-old young right-hander has given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six outings and hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his seven starts this year. He’s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three road contests.
Davis faced the Yankees back on April 10 at home and surrendered four runs on seven hits in six innings, losing 10-0. He also started the 2009 regular-season finale against New York – also in Tampa Bay – and gave up five runs (three earned) in five innings of a 10-2 defeat. So he’s 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA against the Yanks.
Burnett bounced back from a disastrous start in Boston (nine runs allowed in 4 1/3 innings) with a strong effort against the Twins on Friday, allowing three runs (two earned) in 6 2/3 innings. However, he failed to get a decision, even though the Yankees rolled to an 8-4 victory. The veteran right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, including three of the last four, and he’s been dominant at home (2-0, 0.86 ERA in three starts, all New York victories).
Behind Burnett, the Yankees are on upticks of 12-4 overall, 18-4 at Yankee Stadium, 5-1 against the A.L. East and 5-0 on Wednesday. New York is also 4-0 in Burnett’s last four starts against the Rays, with Burnett allowing just six runs (four earned) over 25 innings (1.44 ERA) in those four games. Going back to July 2008 when he was with Toronto, Burnett has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts against the Rays, posting a 1.87 ERA.
Tampa Bay is on “under” streaks of 13-2-2 overall, 4-1-2 on the road and 7-1 against right-handed starters, but the Rays have also topped the total in nine of 13 against A.L. East foes and four of five on Wednesday. The under is 6-3 in New York’s last nine overall, 19-7-2 in its last 28 on Wednesday and 5-0-1 in Burnett’s last six Wednesday affairs. However, the Yankees are also on “over” runs of 7-4 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. East, 8-2 in Burnett’s last 10 starts and 7-2-1 in Burnett’s last 10 against the A.L. East.
The over has cashed in four straight in this rivalry and four straight with Burnett starting against the Rays. Conversely, the under was 5-1 in last year’s final six series clashes at Yankee Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
Phoenix at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to follow up their 128-107 win in Game 1 and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. LA is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6 1/2)
Game 507-508: Phoenix at LA Lakers (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.837; LA Lakers 127.656
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 212
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6 1/2); Under
MLB
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is coming off a 5-4 loss at Cincinnati and is 0-6 in its last 6 games after allowing 5 or more runs in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140)
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 14.731; Washington (Hernandez) 15.500
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 13.756; Pittsburgh (Burres) 15.472
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Over
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 14.832; Philadelphia (Moyer) 17.139
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over
Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.727; Atlanta (Kawakami) 16.460
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); Over
Game 909-910: Colorado at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Smith) 14.708; Houston (Paulino) 14.018
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-115); Over
Game 911-912: Florida at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.360; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.724
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+160); Over
Game 913-914: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 14.484; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.895
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under
Game 915-916: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 16.280; LA Dodgers (Ortiz) 15.507
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over
Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.986; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.987
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155); Under
Game 919-920: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.936; Cleveland (Masterson) 16.051
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-135); Over
Game 921-922: Minnesota at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.155; Boston (Buchholz) 16.736
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.379; Texas (Harden) 16.316
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Over
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.110; White Sox (Danks) 14.886
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Under
Game 927-928: Detroit at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.370; Oakland (Braden) 14.570
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under
Game 929-930: Toronto at Seattle (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.475; Seattle (Fister) 14.895
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under
WNBA
Minnesota at Seattle
The Storm look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 road games. Seattle is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-9 1/2)
Game 601-602: Minnesota at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 104.721; Seattle 117.125
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 12 1/2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 9 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-9 1/2); Under
Marc Lawrence
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies and Cubs meet in the opener of this two-game N.L. Central showdown when Jamie Moyer meets Tom Gorzelanny in Philadelphia. Moyer enters tonight's fray win three straight team start victories and a 6-1 log in his last seven home team starts during the month of May. Meanwhile Gorzelanny has dropped seven of his last eight team starts and is 1-5 in his six career road team starts in May. With that, look for the Phillies to make it six straight over the Cubs here tonight.
MTI Sports
Angels at White Sox
Prediction: Over
The White Sox are 7-0 OU at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and the Angels are 5-0 OU in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. More importantly, the Halos are 10-0 OU when Joe Saunders starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home in his last start. Take these two OVER.
Matt Fargo
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles won a big game last night as they took out the Royals in extra-innings, rallying from a 3-0 deficit. They salvaged the split and moved to a respectable 11-11 over their last 22 games. The overall record is horrid following a 2-16 start so it is fairly obvious that they have turned things around. While it is probably too late to make any sort of move, playing with confidence goes a long way. Texas won another one run game to pull off the two-game sweep against the Angels and while it has been solid at home with a 15-7 record, eight of those wins have come by a single run so it easily could be a lot worse. The pitching remains a concern and Rich Harden is on that list. He is coming off his worst start of the season in Toronto as he allowed seven runs in just 2.2 innings making that his fifth non-quality start in seven outings. Texas has been able to win five of those games but three were by one run and two by two runs. The Orioles counter with Jeremy Guthrie who has been their most consistent starter. Six of his eight starts have been quality performances and he has only one bad start. Both of those non-quality efforts came against the Yankees and take those out and his ERA drops from 4.13 to 3.10. Guthrie is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in five career starts against the Rangers. This is excellent value for Baltimore who I give the edge to in the starting pitching category tonight. 3* Baltimore Orioles
Steve Merril
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto brings their 13-6 road record into Seattle to take on the Mariners. The Blue Jays are raking the ball right now scoring 41 runs over their last five games. They'll be tested by Seattle’s Doug Fister who is 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA this season. The righty is solid, but unspectacular, as he's struck out only 20 batters over 47 innings pitched. Fister lost in Toronto last season when giving up four runs and seven hits in 6.7 innings of work. Toronto is averaging over 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters so Fister will have his hands full facing their lineup. Brett Cecil will be happy to put his last start behind him as he takes on the light-hitting Mariners tonight. Cecil gave up eight runs and eight hits to the Rangers his last time out. The lefty is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts on the road this season. He's never faced the Mariners, but they are a woeful 3-7 against left-handed starters this season. Seattle is averaging just 2.7 runs per game against southpaws while hitting .231 against them in the process. Seattle is just 8-10 on their home field so we’ll recommend taking the plus price with Toronto in this spot tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has been better than expected on the road this season. In fact as a road dog from +100 to 125 they have won 4 of 5 times this season. Tonight they fit a nifty little road dog system I use that plays on certain road dogs off a home favored win by 5 or more runs vs an opponent that was a road favorite. This simple system has been a few games over .500 for MLB Road dogs. Toronto has bright young lefty B.Cecil on the mound tonight. Cecil has been good on the road and will take on a light hitting Seattle team that is hitting just .231 and averaging just 2.7 runs per game vs Left handed pitching this season. Seattle has lost 7 of their 10 games vs leftys and 13 of 16 games in May. The Only positive here for Seattle is that they have a good pitcher in Fister starting tonight. However he does have a 5.40 era vs the Jays. Toronto has won 12 of 17 games in May and have averaged over 6 runs per game over the past 7 games. Take Toronto tonight.
BIG AL
Reds @ Braves
PICK: Over
Pitching matchups just don't get much uglier than this one. Atlanta will hand the ball to Kenshin Kawakami, and he'll be opposed by Cincy's veteran righty, Aaron Harang. Kawakami is 0-6 this season (in seven starts), and his ERA is 5.79, with a 1.47 WHIP. Even worse, in his home starts, his ERA drops almost a full run to 6.75, and his WHIP soars to 1.82. Those numbers are horrid enough, but Harang's are actually worse! Harang brings a 2-5 record into Wednesday's game, and his ERA is 6.02. But on the road, his ERA is 7.31, with a WHIP of 1.75. The Reds have also gone 'over' the total in six of their last eight games, and have dominated Kawakami (his ERA is 15.42, and his WHIP 1.92 vs. Cincy). Look for a high-scoring game tonight. Take the 'over.'
David Chan
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Kansas City Royals
A managerial change has been great for the Royals. I used to think the idea that “it’s easier to fire a manager than 25 players” was just a hoary cliché, but, at least in this case, it’s done the trick.
Both pitchers are 0-4 this season, but the Royals’ Gil Meche seems to be getting better as the season progresses. His last two outings were quality starts, surrendering four runs over 14 innings pitched. This play is more of a wager on the Royals’ bats: Meche is still walking too many batters. Still, when you’re getting plus money in this world, there’s got to be a bump or two in the road. It’s Meche’s walk rate here. The rest of this wager is full speed ahead.
Jim Feist
Rockies vs. Astros
Play: Over 9
Houston is a small park, excellent for home run hitters and tough on pitchers. Here we have two pitchers who make things hard on themselves by walking way too many batters. Greg Smith (6.35 ERA) of the Rockies has allowed a ridiculous 24 free passes in 34 innings along with 39 hits, so he's not getting anybody out. Houston righty Felipe Paulino is 0-6 on the season with a 5.72 ERA walking 22 in 39 innings. Look for an offensive show in Houston. Play the Rockies/Astros Over the total.
EZWINNERS
Washington Nationals -140
Washington's starting pitcher Livan Hernandez continues to pitch well this season. Hernandez is 4-2 for the year with an ERA of only 1.46 and already owns a victory over these New York Mets. In that win Hernandez threw seven shutout innings while limiting the Mets to only five hits. New York has called up knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to make this start against the Nats. Washington has already faced a knuckleballer this season when they defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers and Charlie Haeger 5-1 on April 23rd so I like their chances to do some damage against Dickey who once allowed six homeruns in one game when the knuckler wasn't "knuckling" as a member of the Texas Rangers. New York has lost five straight games in the nation's capital and I don't expect them to turn things around today with a pitcher on the mound in Dickey who doesn't throw hard because he doesn't have an ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Play on Washington.
JR ODonnell
Baltimore / Texas Rangers Over 9.5
Looking at the pure fact that Baltimore starter J Guthrie is an Over machine on the road at 14-6 the last 20 in a dog role and the other issue to note is that Texas Rangers ace R. Harden was bombed last game and we feel that his dominant edge is wearing real thin. Vegas has this baby @ 9.5 for a reason and runs will be coming in bunches late tonight. V Guerrero .368 BA and six dingers feasts on the O's and we will look for him and his crew to roll tonight!!
Scott Spreitzer
Reds at Braves
Play: Over
While Cinci has climbed their way to the top of the NL Central, they still have certain pitchers who are going to hold them back as the season progresses. One of those is Aaron Harang, who has been horrible on the road this season and in evening action. Harang will face a Braves' lineup that averages about 5 rpg against righthanders. Cinci is actually 7-3 in road night games against righties and should have little trouble tagging Atlanta starter Kawakami. The Braves' hurler is getting pounded no matter the venue and owns an 11.74 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a .345 BAA in three career appearances against the Reds. These two teams normally play high scoring games at Turner, going 19-7-1 to the Over the last 27 times.
Rocketman
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 7-2 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Kansas City is 8-14 on the road this season. Kansas City is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year, 4.2 runs per game on the road and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters. Gil Meche is 0-4 with a 7.17 ERA overall this year, 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road and 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA his last 3 starts. Meche is 5-9 overall vs Cleveland since 1997. Masterson has a 2.95 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -113
In this battle of struggling starters, I'll back the team with the better bats. The Astros are only scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season with a .228 batting average. They've been even worse against southpaw starters, scoring only 2.8 runs per game with a batting average of .225. The Rockies are only hitting .242 and scoring 3.9 runs per game on the road, but that's a lot better than the Astros. Plus, we can expect better than that tonight since the Rockies are hitting .254 and scoring 4.7 runs per game against righty starters. The Rockies haven't come up with a lot of extra base hits this season, but it likely won't matter tonight as Paulino is 0-14 on the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 1.4 to 5.6. The Astros are also 0-9 in Paulino's last 9 home starts. The Rockies' Smith doesn't have much better numbers, but with the better lineup behind him, and with the way the Astros have struggled against lefties, he gets the nod here. Cash in with Colorado.