SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +1.34 over WASHINGTON
R.A. Dickey makes his season debut but don’t expect his nerves to be acting up. Dickey is a guy that’s been around for a long, long time and has pretty much seen it all so a start in Washington is nothing. He’s a 36-year old career minor leaguer that has been up and down (mostly down) for years and years. He’s appeared in 144 major league games over the years, most of them with Texas from ’01 to ’06 and he pitched for both Seattle and Minnesota over the past two years. Dickey is a knuckleballer that has pitched only in the AL and the switch to the NL can only benefit him. The Nats players only have a combined 28 AB’s off Dickey and that, too, works to his advantage. Furthermore, the Nats are cold with five losses in a row and they also return home from a nine-game trip that included a trip to Colorado in which they endured some long rain delays. Livan Hernandez is 4-2 with a 1.46 ERA, which is virtually ridiculous because Hernandez is one of thos most hittable pitchers in the game. He’s way overdue for one of his first or second inning knockouts and this could certainly be the day. Mets hitters have 270 AB’s against Hernandez and with awfil BB/K’s ratio and his unsustainable 96% strand rate, his implosion is forthcoming sooner rather tan later. Play NY Mets +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH +1.39 over Milwaukee
After the Brewers blew a 4-2 ninth inning lead yesterday and lost 5-4 for its eighth consecutive loss, the Brewers have to be about as mentally low as any team in the league. Don’t expect the Pirates to show or have any sympathy for them at all. In fact, you can expect the Pirates to be extra juiced here for the beating they took earlier in the season at the hands of this intruder. Milwaukee came in here last month and annihilated the Pirates by a combined score of 36-1 (20-0, 8-0, 8-1) in a three game set and there is now way the Pirates have forgotten that. Randy Wolf is struggling mightily and even though he’s beaten the Pirates twice this year that might not work to his advantage here. In his last starts against Pitt just on April 22, the Pirates got to him for 10 hits in eight frames but stranded a slew of runners. Since then, Wolf has allowed five jacks and 13 runs in his last 16 IP. The Pirates are 3-1 at home against lefties and they should be able to get to him again and cash in some runners. Brian Burres is also a lefty and the Brew Crew is just 4-8 vs southpaws. Burres has appeared in seven games with four coming as starter. His last start at Wrigley came with the wind blowing out and a total of 10½ so he can absolutely be excused for allowing five earned runs in four frames. Incidentally the Bucco’s won that game 10-6. Prior to that outing, Burres had not allowed a single run in his three previous appearances and that including a three-hit, seven-inning gem at home against the same Cubbies. In 12 IP at home, Buress has allowed just six hits for a BAA of .150 to go along with an ERA of 1.50. Burres is a guy that comes over from the Orioles of the AL and after facing the likes of the Yanks, Rays and Red Sox over the past four years the switch to the NL can only benefit him. Play Pittsburgh +1.39 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON +1.06 over Colorado
The Astros are a sickening and very frustrating team to wager on but Greg Smith of the Rockies is a horrible pitcher that is only pitching at this level because he’s a lefty and because the Rocks have nobody else right now. As soon as they get a healthy body back, Smith will be working in either long relief or at Tulsa. Smith has a BAA of .305, an ERA of 6.35, he’s walked 24 batters in 34 frames and he’s also been taken yard seven times in those 34 IP. The Astros will be guaranteed to get some scoring chances. Meanwhile Felipe Paulino is 0-6 with an ERA of 5.72 but that’s not fair and it’s also misleading. Paulino has only allowed one home run in 39 innings thus far. He’s also struck out 41 batters and at home is BAA is .241. This guy is a good pitcher with some great stuff and he has a ton more upside than Smith. When GM’s call the Astros to talk trade they all want Paulino because he has sick stuff and is on the verge of something real good. Smith favored over Paulino is just as sick. The Astros always seem to play its best ball against the Rockies and in fact, they’ve beaten Colorado five of the last six meetings. Play: Houston +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.32 over CLEVELAND
With Grady Sizemore out and with a 15-22 record the Indians are not very appealing as a –1.40 favorite. Yeah, they can win but c’mon, how can this team be trusted at this price. A win here by the Royals would not make anyone look twice at the score and chances are good they’ll get that win. Gil Meche is having a horrible year but I did watch him in his last start and he looked like a completely different pitcher. He was dealing it strong and has now thrown two rock solid games in a row. Two starts ago in Texas he went eight full and gave up just six hits and three runs in that tough hitters park. In his last start he dominated the South Side by going six innings and allowing just four hits and one earned run. Meche has found “it” again and could absolutely breeze here. Forget about his 0-4 record and 7.17 ERA. He was not sharp to start the year but he’s very sharp right now and Meche is a quality starter with quality stuff. The Royals possess the much better offense too and they’ll face a guy who is also 0-4 but deserves it. Masterson was crushed in Oakland, he was crushed in Baltimore in his last outing and he comes in with a 1.83 WHIP and a BAA of .313. This is perhaps the biggest overlay on the board today and is simply a must play. Play: Kansas City +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.50 over TEXAS
For Rich Harden and the Rangers things haven’t gone exactly as planned. He was supposed to give the Rangers a front-line starter but instead he’s been a total bust and it’s not a mystery as to why. His eight starts have totaled just 38.1 innings. He’s walked 31 batters and hit five more for an average of one free pass per inning. He has a WHIP of 1.67. His whiff rate - the percent of swings batters take that miss - has dropped from last year's 33% to this year's 16%. There is nothing - nothing - about which to be optimistic. This could all be one giant statistical anomaly, but the overwhelming probability is that Rich Harden is broken. He just doesn't look anything like the guy he used to be, and while the Rangers are 5-3 in his starts, that's not because they've received a lot of help on the hill. Jeremy Guthrie (63 BPV, 3-0-3-4-4 PQS) has been pitching well in recent starts. He’s coming off back-to-back wins against the Twins and Indians and has a dominant .588 OPSA in past confrontations with Texas hitters. Guthrie is a guy who throws strikes and has never lost to the Rangers in five starts. Another win here is a distinct possibility and at this price the O’s are most definitely worth a look. Play: Baltimore +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.11 over SEATTLE
Doug Fister is 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA and has surely benefitted from pitching at Safeco but he’s another one of those guys that has great numbers despite possessing very average stuff. In other words, his current good stats cannot last over an extended period of time and the Blue Jays are ecaxtly the type of team that can smack him around. Fister mainly pitches to contact and the Blue Jays are an aggressive team that has hit more doubles and jacks than any team in the majors and they own a league-best .831 OPS vs. RHP. The Jays offense is vastly superior to that of the Mariners and it’s also worth noting that Seattle is 3-7 against southpaws this year with an embarrassing OPS of .608. Brett Cecil is one of the majors best kept secrets right now. Cecil has wicked stuff and he throws nothing but strikes. He has a K/BB of 3-1 and the best news is that the Mariners have never seen him. The Blue Jays really have it all. They have speed, power, defense and pitching and they’ve been outstanding on the road with a 13-6 record. The Jays have 10 more wins than the Mariners and Seattle is in the midst of a run that has seen them lost six of seven. Any take-back here on the Jays is truly a gift. Play: Toronto +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
BILL YOUNG
CHICAGO CUBS -110
The Cubs are finally getting some confidence after back-to-back late-inning wins over both the Pirates and Rockies. Now they send undefeated starter, Carlos Silva, to the mound Tuesday as he keeps the momentum going against the Rockies. Silva is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.205 WHIP this season for the Cubs, and Chicago is 6-1 in his seven starts this year. Jhoulys Chacin was impressive in his first two starts of the season for Colorado, but his third start proved that it may have been a bit of fool's gold. Chacin was rocked for 6 earned runs and 2 home runs in 5 innings of a 6-14 loss to the Washington Nationals in his last start on May 13th. The Rockies are 2-10 (-8.5 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Colorado is 0-7 (-8.5 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Silva is 27-13 (+14.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. The Cubs are 19-0 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 3 seasons. By the time it gets to the Rockies' bullpen tonight the Cubs will already have a subsantial lead as they tee off on Chacin. Take the Cubs on the Money Line.
SCOTT DELANEY
Colorado at Houston
This is one of those games in which I am looking at the opposing pitcher and just can’t see any other way but by going against him.
Houston’s Felipe Paulino is 0-6 with a 5.72 ERA and comes in after being raked for eight hits and seven earned runs over 4-2/3 innings, while he issued four walks and fired two wild pitches last Friday in San Francisco. In his last three overall he has allowed 12 earned runs.
And get this, the Astros have lost in 14 of Paulino's past 15 starts dating back to the start of last July. Granted, Paulino has received poor run support this year, but he is also a horrendous 5-18 since joining the Majors in 2007. This season he is 0-4 with a 4.08 ERA in Houston. At Minute Maid in his career, he has gone 2-10 with a 4.91 ERA in 21 games.
It gets deeper, against the Rockies he's 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two career starts, both of which came last season.
I’m going to look for the Rockies to pull this series-opener out before heading to Kansas City for Interleague action over the weekend.
5♦ ROCKIES
Chris Jordan
This will be quite a series for both teams, as the Yankees are surging once again and would love nothing more than to gain ground on the American League East front-running Rays. And while I know the Rays have had the most impressive starting rotation this season, thus far, I’m even more impressed with the numbers New York starter A.J. Burnett has against Tampa Bay.
His 12 wins against the Rays are his most against any team, while his 2.76 ERA is his lowest against an American League team outside of the one he currently pitches for. In his only start against them this season the right-hander limited the Rays to two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 7-3 Yankees win on April 11.
He’s now won four straight against the Rays, and allowed a mere four earned runs in those games for a paltry 1.44 ERA.
Meanwhile, with Davis toeing the slab, I don’t think the Rays are going to have the same success they’ve been having thanks to stellar pitching. The right-hander has lost two straight starts to the Bombers, having given up seven earned runs over 11 innings of work. He also comes into this one having lost two straight starts this season – to the Mariners and the Athletics.
In his lone start against the Yankees this season, on April 10, it was a David vs. Goliath situation, as the Rays were nearly no-hit by CC Sabathia. Davis lasted six innings and gave up four earned runs, seven hits, four walks and a home run. He has control issues, and it only takes one mistake for the Yankees to break this game wide open. That’s what I am banking on, with first place on their brain. Take the pinstripes today in this A.L. East showdown.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Bobby Maxwell
I scored the FREE winner on Tuesday when the A's scored the extra-inning win over the Mariners. I improved my comp record to 97-77-3 and I'm coming with a freebie on the Rays today as they take on the Yankees in New York.
The top two teams in the A.L. East are going at it tonight at Yankee Stadium and with the intensity and late-inning heroics the Yankees went through against the Red Sox the last two nights, I think Tampa has a big advantage coming in to this one.
New York was playing their hated rivals the last two nights, rallying for a walk-off win on Monday and then coming up just short on Tuesday, losing 7-6. That’s some draining baseball and now they have to immediately turn around and get ready for the best record in baseball.
The Rays are going with Wade Davis (3-3, 3.38 ERA) on the hill tonight and he’s got a 2.25 ERA on the highway this season. He’s only allowed four runs on the road this season (16 innings) and he’s looking for some payback against the Yankees who got him back on April 10 for four runs in six innings of a 10-0 New York win.
Tampa has won four in a row and just swept the Indians in a quick two-game set, winning 6-2 on Tuesday night. The Rays are riding some very nice streaks coming into this one, including 16-5 on the road, 11-4 in series openers, 39-16 overall, 8-0 on Wednesday and 6-0 as underdogs.
The Rays will keep their red-hot offense going tonight and get to the Yankees and A.J. Burnett early. I’m grabbing the plus-money with Tampa in this one.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Brett Atkins
It's a free winner in the showdown between American League East leaders as I go with the Rays on the road in New York to face the Yankees.
Oakland has been dominating the Mariners at home this season, winning four of the last six and getting Monday’s first game of the series 8-4.
I’m playing the Rays in this one because the Yankees have been in back-to-back battles against the Red Sox and now have to immediately turn around and face the best team in baseball.
Tampa has won four in a row and just swept the Indians two games with a 6-2 Tuesday victory. They are on some nice runs of 16-5 on the road, 11-4 in series openers, 39-16 overall and 6-0 as an underdog.
The Rays have Wade Davis on the hill who has been very tough on the road this season, allowing just four runs in 16 innings. Tampa Bay has not had a lot of success against the Yankees, but they are catching them at the perfect time for this one.
Grab this plus-money and play the Rays tonight.
3♦ TAMPA
VEGAS EXPERTS
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
We’ll back the underdog Blue Jays tonight in Seattle against Doug Fister and the Mariners. While Fister has had a great season so far (1.72 ERA), the Mariners have given him little-to-no run support. And Seattle comes into this game losing six of their last seven overall, while Toronto has won five of their last six, including reaching double-digits in base hits in four of their last five games. Toronto is the hotter team right now, and we won’t lay a favorite price on a team that can’t score. Blue Jays are a good road team, and they’ll find a way to win here tonight!
Play on: Toronto Blue Jays
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -107
In this battle of struggling starters, I'll back the team with the better bats. The Astros are only scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season with a .228 batting average. They've been even worse against southpaw starters, scoring only 2.8 runs per game with a batting average of .225. The Rockies are only hitting .242 and scoring 3.9 runs per game on the road, but that's a lot better than the Astros. Plus, we can expect better than that tonight since the Rockies are hitting .254 and scoring 4.7 runs per game against righty starters. The Rockies haven't come up with a lot of extra base hits this season, but it likely won't matter tonight as Paulino is 0-14 on the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 1.4 to 5.6. The Astros are also 0-9 in Paulino's last 9 home starts. The Rockies' Smith doesn't have much better numbers, but with the better lineup behind him, and with the way the Astros have struggled against lefties, he gets the nod here. Cash in with Colorado.
Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Blue Jays are the better overall team here tonight. Brett Cecil (2-2, 5.46) has pitched great early on this season despite his last two starts and the Blue Jays are 5-1 in his last 6 starts on the road. Seattle is just 0-6 in their last 6 home games as a favorite and they are just 1-5 in Doug Fister's (3-1, 1.72 ERA) last 6 starts as a favorite. The Blue Jays have the second best road record in MLB and Seattle is just 3-7 in their last 10 games against a lefty starter. The Mariners are also hitting just .228 as a team at home this season. I look for a solid start for Cecil tonight against a team that has not faced him before so grab the value with the Toronto Blue Jays as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.
BEN BURNS
Orioles @ Rangers
PICK: Under 9.5
The Rangers saw yesterday's game finish above the total. However, they'd scored only six runs in their previous three games, all of which stayed below the number. Here, they'll face a Baltimore team which has seen three straight games stay below the total and which has scored only 10 runs its previous four games. The 'under' is 12-7 when these teams have faced each other the past few seasons. With a couple of capable starters on the mound, this one could also prove low-scoring.
Guthrie has been sharp lately. He allowed one run, on just two hits, through eight innings last time out. He now has a superb 0.784 WHIP, his last three starts. For the season, he has a solid 3.86 ERA and 1.163 WHIP on the road. Four of his five road starts have fallen below the total.
Guthrie has also been excellent in his recent starts vs. the Rangers. In five starts against the Rangers, he's 3-0 with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.213. Last time he faced them, he tossed seven shutout innings. Including that 7-0 victory, the 'under' is 4-1 in his five starts vs. Texas.
Harden got roughed up last time out. However, he'd been sharp in his previous two starts, both of which stayed well below the total. Additionally, he's got an outstanding 0.69 ERA in two starts vs. the Orioles. Those games finished with scores of 3-0 and 2-1. Consider the Under
Tom Freese
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota starter Scott Baker has 23 strikeouts and just 3 walks in his 3 starts. The Twins are 13-6 the last 19 starts made by Baker and they are 11-3 off a loss. Minnesota is 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and they are 10-3 as underdogs of +110 to +150. Boston pitcher Clay Buchholz has 13 walks and just 6 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox 7-19 their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 1-4 when the to 9.0 to 10.5. PLAY ON MINNESOTA
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -150
A.J. Burnett has owned the Tampa Bay Rays, and I expect that to continue tonight. New York will be highly motivated for this game after blowing a lead to the Red Sox last night to fall further behind the Rays for the AL East lead. Burnett is 12-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 22 career starts vs. Tampa Bay. Burnett is 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Rays, allowing a combined 4 earned runs in 25 innings of work. The Yankees have won 11 of their last 15 meetings with the Rays overall.
Tampa starter Wade Davis is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in his career against New York. He'll have to contend with a potent Yankees' line-up that his hitting .301 and scoring 6.3 RPG at home this season. New York is 13-4 in 17 home games in 2010. New York is 41-11 against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Tampa is 5-19 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 25-7 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Yankees at home Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -137
After yesterday's stunning 2-1 loss to the Pirates with Halladay on the hill, look for the Phillies to get right back in the win column against the Cubs tonight. The ageless wonder Moyer has found his groove again, going 3-0 over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 0.750. The Cubs are just 1-6 in Gorzelanny's starts this season, including 0-3 on the road. On the season, he's pitched better than his record indicates, but his recent numbers tell us he's ready to come back down to earth. His ERA is 5.00 and his WHIP is 1.778 over his last 3 starts. The Cubs have lost 7 of their last 8 with the Phillies and 8 of their last 11 in Philadelphia. We'll take the defending NL champs at a solid price here.
Black Widow
1* on Washington Nationals -140
Livan Hernandez continues his red hot run to start the season Wednesday against the New York Mets. He is up against R.A. Dickey who is making a spot start for New York, and he is a guy who just cannot keep a starting job in the big leagues. Dickey has faced the Nationals before, allowing 7 earned runs and 10 base runners in 1.2 innings of a 6-7 loss. Dickey is 22-28 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his career. Opponents are hitting .293 against him as well. Hernandez is 4-2 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.034 WHIP this season and the Nationals are 5-2 in his 7 starts. The Mets are 5-13 on the road this season, hitting .217 while scoring a mere 3.7 runs/game. The Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 7-1 in Hernandez's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with New York. Take the Nationals on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Braves -122
Reasons the Braves win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts. This is a 39-10 ML System hitting 79.6% since 1997 and gaining +28.8 units.
2.) Kenshin Kawakami is winless this season for Atlanta, but he gets his first tase of victory tonight against Aaron Harang and the Cincinnati Reds. Harang has actually posted worse numbers than Kawakami this season, and he's just 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in three 2010 road starts. Bet Atlanta at home.