Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday May, 2

Marc Lawrence

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

When the Giants send Barry Zito to the mound against the Marlins Carlos Zambrano in Game Two of this three games series at AT&T Park San Francisco will do so knowing ZIto is 6-1 with a 2.46 ERA in his career team starts against the Fish. Zito has also cashed 10 of his last 16 home team starts during the month of May. With Zambrano still having trouble finding the plate, and Zito in terrific current form with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.926 WHIP this season, look for light-hitting Florida to fall to 0-5 behind Zambrano tonight. In a matchup of the Z's, we'll back Barry tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

After losing the first game of this series, the Dodgers got one back last night to move to 17-7 overall and remain in first place in the National League West by four games over Arizona. Los Angeles is 7-5 on the road and the starting pitching has been the catalyst with a 3.66 ERA over those 12 games after another strong outing from Ted Lilly on Tuesday. This price may seem high but Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 games as a road favorite and 22-8 in its last 30 games as a favorite of -150 or less. Colorado has been unable to put anything good together as it is a game under .500 on the season while going 7-7 at home through 14 games. The Rockies offense has been solid during this recent homestand as they have scored at least five runs in all five games including six runs in each of the first two games of this series. However that comes to a screeching halt after today. Colorado is 26-56 in its last 82 games as an underdog between +110 and +150 and 2-10 in its last 12 games as a home underdog. The Dodgers give the ball to Clayton Kershaw who is once again having a sensational season. He has a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through five starts with the Dodgers going a perfect 5-0 in those games. His numbers are even better on the road as he has yet to allow a run in two outings. He has had a couple bad games against Colorado over the last two years but Los Angeles is 7-2 in his last nine starts against the Rockies and it is 15-3 in his last 18 starts against teams with a losing record. Colorado counters with Drew Pomeranz who has not exactly gotten off to a great start to his Major League career. He made four starts after a September call-up last year and posted a 5.40 ERA and through three starts this season, he has put up an identical 5.40 ERA. To his credit he has pitched much better at home than on the road in his two years but he has yet to register a quality start while his ERA at home this year is a dismal 6.84. Los Angeles is 12-3 in its last 15 games against left-handed starters.

Rob Vinciletti

Mets vs. Astros
Play: Over 8

This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the over for home favorites at -140 or higher with a total of 8 or less that scored 5 or more in a home dog win and had 10 or more hits vs an opponent off a road favored loss that scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits. Houston has flown over in 14 of 18 vs right handed pitchers and 6 of 6 when the total is 8 to 8.5. They are scoring over 5 runs per game in day games. The Mets have gone over in 4 of as a road dog from +100 to +125 and 8 of 11 on the road this season. When going up against left handed pitching the Mets have gone over in 7 of the last 9. They have C. Shwinden on the mound and he was roughed up in his only start allowing 6 runs in 4 innings as he replaces injured Mike Pelfrey. After him the Mets counter with a 8.53 road bullpen era. Houston has Wandy Rodriguez on the mound and while he has been good this season the Astros have played over the ttoal in 4 of his 5 starts. Look for this one to go over the total.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

The poor Cubbies, why does life have to be so hard for the Chicago Cubs? They are off to a horrible start again this year, and things don't look like they are going to get any easier. The red hot Jay Bruce and his Cincinnati Reds are the opponent on Wednesday. The current National League player of the week is hitting .296, with 7 homers and 17 RBIs this season. Bruce had pretty decent numbers against the Cubs last season, batting .319 with a .417 on-base percentage in 20 meetings going back to last year. Joey Votto also comes in to this game swinging a hot bat, with a home run and 4 RBIs in his last game.

The hot hitting Reds lineup will be seeing Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija, who comes off a solid outing versus the Cardinals, allowing only four hits and no runs in a victory. That being said, he was terrible in the previous outing, and does tend to struggle at times.

The Reds go with Bronson Arroyo, who comes in to the game with a 1-0 record on the year, and an ERA of 2.70. Arroyo has pitched well against the Cubs in his career with a record of 5-2 over the past four years. With Arroyo going up against a shaky relief pitcher converted to a starter, I like the Reds chances in this one. The price is a little steep, but I believe the value is on Cincinnati.

Freddy Wills

Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

I'm not going to say Barry Zito is back based on his first four starts, but I will say that he will give the Marlins issues on Wednesday. First of all the Marlins are among the worst vs. LHP as they are 29th in the league in OPS posting a .586 OPS with just a .183 batting average on the road vs. LHP. While the Giants face RHP and are 7th with a .749 OPS. There will be plenty more opportunities for the Giants, who also have a better bullpen than the Marlins and the main reason is Barry Zito. Zito has great numbers vs. the Marlins posting a 1.64 ERA over his last 5 starts against them. Marlins hitters post just a .157 average and .499 OPS against him in 83 AB.

I'm not sold on Zito moving forward only because he's changed his approach and it's throwing hitters off now but he's allowed just a .188 BABIP which is largely lucky and his xFIP is 4.69 which more accurate in predicting where a pitcher will finish in ERA. He's throwing his fastball just 31.4% of the time and a slider 37.4% of the time. That's the difference so far as Zito normally threw his fastball over 50% of the time in his career and a slider 7.3%. It's throwing hitters off and the Marlins are one of the worst against the slider (27th in the league according to fangraphs). Zito has pitched well against some decent teams but right now the Marlins don't have a clue at the plate.

Notable Hot Starters:
Justin Verlander (2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
Wandy Rodriguez (2-1, 0.95 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 0.98 WHIP, 2.21 ERA)
Joe Saunders (2-1, 0.87 WHIP, 1.17 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (1-2, 0.92 WHIP, 2.61 ERA)
James Shields (3-0, 1.07 WHIP, 2.01 ERA)
Roy Halladay (1-2, 1.23 WHIP, 2.86 ERA)
Homer Bailey (1-2, 1.29 WHIP, 2.79 ERA)
Lance Lynn (3-0, 0.93 WHIP, 1.33 ERA)
Jerred Weaver (2-1, 1.02 WHIP, 1.25 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (0-3, 1.26 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
The cold starter with the best chance to win is Yovani Gallardo because he's going up against the Padres and is an under dog. Padres are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they also send Jeff Suppan to the mound. Suppan hasn't started this year and was not very impressive in his stint with the Royals and you have to wonder how much he has left.

Notable Cold Starters:
Johnathan Sanchez (0-3, 2.27 WHIP, 8.03 ERA)
Ivan Nova (3-0, 1.79 WHIP, 6.23 ERA)
Liam Hendriks (1-2, 1.60 WHIP, 6.89 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Bronson Arroyo might be ready to start fading following his surprising April. The indicators off his last start suggest the regression is about ready to begin. Jeff Samardzija has not been good away from Wrigley, but I'll back him and the Cubs at the generous dog number tonight.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is on a 7-3 run at home and has a terrific offense, fourth in baseball in runs scored. They face a Philly team that goes with ace Roy Halladay, but one that has no offense. The Braves are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter and 14-5 in their last 19 overall. Atlanta has an ace of their own on the hill and the Braves are 16-7 in Hansons last 23 starts plus 15-7 in Hansons last 22 starts on grass. Play the Braves.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +127 over HOUSTON

The Astros have been scrappy and very competitive recently but as a significant favorite they bring too much risk. Wandy Rodriguez has been a model of consistency. His ERA and xERA confirm that but his 1.72 ERA is unsustainable and when your xERA is more than two runs higher than your actual ERA, a correction is inevitable. Current Mets are batting .316 against Rodriguez in 79 career AB’s. It took Chris Schwinden 90 pitches to make it through four frames in his first start of the year and he gave up two home runs and five earned runs in the outing. Don’t put a lot into it, as it was at Coors and he had just been recalled to replace Mike Pelfrey. None of Schwinden’s offerings grade out as above average but he's a smart pitcher who mixes his pitches well with excellent location and command. In three starts at Triple-AAA Buffalo, he posted a 2.05 ERA in 22 frames with a BAA of .184. Schwinden uses two breaking balls, a slider and a curve, along with a change-up and his fastball can range between 83-93 MPH. Sure he has risk but as the chalk, the Astros risk is greater. Play: N.Y. Mets +127 (Risking 2 units).

Miami +113 over SAN FRANCISCO

The Marlins got a much-needed win last night and perhaps that will get them going after losing eight of their previous nine. All that aside, this one is all about taking back some juice against Barry Zito. Zito has a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP after four starts. Before you ride him, note that his skills have been mediocre again and they’re not getting better. His 88% strand rate can’t last and his fly-ball bias profile is eventually going to hurt him. Zito’s strikeout rate is on a three-year tailspin. It has shown this decline since 2009. This correlates neatly with his fastball velocity drop over the same period. This isn't a new pitcher. Carlos Zambrano is 0-2 with a 3.24 ERA. The Marlins have failed to score a single run for him in his last two starts. He is winless in four starts and deserves better. It could all work out for him here, as Zito is bound for disaster sooner rather than later. Play: Miami +113 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers -265

The Tiger's ace starting pitcher Justin Verlander has owned the Kansas City Royals. In his career, Verlander is 14-2 with an ERA of just 2.37 against Kansas City. That leaves a small margin of error for the Royal's starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez, who came over from the Giants in the off season, struggled with command in his last start against Cleveland as he threw last then half of his 115 pitches for strikes. The Detroit offense should be able to give Verlander more than enough run support in this one. Play on Detroit.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

La Clippers +7 over MEMPHIS: Gotta feel the Grizzlies could feel some effects from blowing a 27 point lead to the Clipps in game 1, while La will be riding a ton of momentum here. I had the Clipps in that first game and I know i got lucky. This is just too many points for the Grizzlies to be favored by, especially vs a talented team like the Clippers, who have CP3 and Blake Griffin on it. Heading into the playoffs the Grizzlies had won 6 in a row, but those wins were vs 5 teams that are not in the playoffs and an Orlando team that was hit hard by injuries at the end of the year. Not a very impressive resume. The Clipps did struggle down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4, which included losses at New York and Atlanta, but prior to that stretch they had won 5 in a row, which included road wins over Denver and OKC and a home win over OKC. The Clipps were certainly tested more down the stretch and it showed in game 1 as Memphis just couldn't cope with the pressure once the game got close, while the Clipps made the miraculous comeback and closed the deal in the end. Interesting stats here is the fact that the Grizzlies are 14-9 ATS combined with 0 or 3 days rest, but on 1 or 2 days rest they are 15-29 ATS combined, including 0-5 ATS when its on 2 days rest. Look for the Clipps to rid the momentum to an outright win in game two.

2 UNIT PLAY

SAN ANTONIO -11.5 over Utah: Easiest thing in the world would be to make this a top play, because the game does look so easy, but that's why I will make it a 2 Unit play. it really does look easy as the spurs have been the best team in the league for much of the second half of the year. The Spurs won game 1 by 15 and in watching the game it didn't really feel like it was that close. The Spurs have now outscored their opponents by 12 ppg at home, including by an average of 19 ppg in their last 6 at home. The Spurs have been scoring a ton lately as they have averaged 113.9 ppg in their last 11 games overall and 112.8 ppg in their last 6 at home, while they have allowed just 92.3 ppg at home on the year. Utah didn't have enough offense or defense in game 1 and they certainly won't in game 2 either.The favorite is 19-6-1 ATS the last 26, while the Host is 20-8-1 ATS the last 29. Spurs by at least 15 again in this one.

David Banks

Memphis Grizzlies -6

In one of the biggest chokes in NBA Playoff history, the Memphis Grizzlies (41-26, 29-38 ATS) blew what was once a 27-point lead in Game 1 of this series vs. the Los Angeles Clippers (41-26, 34-33 ATS) as they relinquished home court advantage in an unfathomable 99-98 loss. The Grizzlies still led by 21 points to begin the fourth quarter, only to become the third NBA team in history to lose after a lead of that size in the final quarter by allowing the Clippers to go an unheard of 26-1 run! Memphis must now somehow shake off that collapse as they host Game 2 of the series on Wednesday night at FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN at 9:30 ET on TNT.

The Grizzlies have been playing very good defense all year while struggling with their offense a lot of times, so they must have felt very secure when they were up 95-71 with about eight minutes left. After all, Memphis had already reached its regular season scoring average for a full game (95.0) and surely a defense that ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring defense (93.0) would not let the Clippers back in the game, right? Well, to their credit, the Clippers kept on playing while turning up the heat defensively while the Grizzlies probably relaxed a bit, and one 26-1 run later Los Angeles took the lead 97-96 on a very artful layup by Reggie Evans, who is not exactly known for his scoring, with 58 seconds left. Sure. Memphis retook the lead briefly, but two free throws by the Clippers' Chris Paul accounted for the final score and negated the Grizzlies' season ending six-game winning streak that enabled them to gain the home court edge in this series.

Of course it helped that the Clippers also lost their last two regular season games after playing very well over a prolonged period, and that meant that they finished one game behind Memphis in the standings. They did not seem too anxious to regain home court advantage over the first three quarters either before rediscovering a defense that had keyed a 14-3 straight up run before losing those last two games. LA allowed 100 points only three times in the last 19 regular season games, a streak that began with a 101-85 win over these Grizzlies back on March 24th at home in the Staples Center. They allowed only 93.1 points per game over those 19 contests and they final displayed that form while allowing three points in the last eight minutes Sunday and miraculously holding another opponent under 100 points.

It was believed that gaining home court would be huge in this series as Memphis went 26-7 at home during the regular season and Los Angeles went 24-9 at Staples, and as you would expect, the home teams went a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in the regular season head-to-head meetings. That was all put to bed in the last eight minutes of Game 1 though and the Clippers could effectively end this series with a second straight road win here if the Grizzles show any ill effects from that devastating loss.

SPORTS WAGERS

Series Memphis +113 over L.A. Clippers

MEMPHIS -6½ over L.A. Clippers

Shocking it was. The Grizzlies were toying with this group in game one and thought they had it all wrapped up with eight minutes to go and a 21-point lead. Memphis did anything they wanted but let up and it was a good lesson that you have to play for 48 minutes. The Grizzlies will very likely come back even stronger tonight while the Clippers may not win another game. Memphis executes as good or better better than almost any team in the NBA while the Clippers do not. They play smart basketball and they’re well-coached. Other than Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the Clip Joint are simply not that talented. Paul is nursing a sore groin and the wear and tear of a playoff series is going to make him less effective as the series wears on. Vinny Del Negro is not coaching material. He has no clipboard or game plan. He just watches and hopes. The Grizzlies are loaded from top to bottom with Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marreese Speights, Mike Conley, Tony Allen and more. Game one was a miracle win for the Clippers. Game 2 and the rest of the series will be a different story. Play: Memphis -6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2) Play: Memphis to win series +113 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Series Nashville -110 over PHOENIX

Eventually the Coyotes good fortune is going to run out. They were dominated in round 1 by the Blackhawks but Mike Smith stole the series and the Coyotes advanced. They were completely dominated in game 1 of this series but Predators goaltender, Pekka Rinne did not make one big save when needed and the Coyotes won 4-3 in OT despite playing the entire game in their own end. The good news is that the Preds scored three times and while Smith was brilliant again, three goals is very likely going to win against this offensively challenged host in most instances. The Preds are -123 in this game but if they win here, they will then shoot up to about -180 in the updated series price and therefore we’ll play them to win the series. The Predators are simply the vastly superior team that should be up 1-0 while the Coyotes can’t keep winning games when being so badly outplayed. Play: Nashville to win series -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Lenny Del Genio

Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox

We cashed with the White Sox in this space yesterday and come right back with them again Wednesday evening as they host the slumping Cleveland Indians. The Tribe has dropped four of its last six, plating no more than four runs in any one of those contests while scoring just 14 runs totals during that span. Meanwhile, you really can't have two more diametrically opposed starts than Chicago's Philip Humber has had in his last two outings. The righty threw MLB's 21st Perfect Game on 4.21, beating Seattle 4-0, but followed that by getting bounced by Boston after just five innings where he allowed nine runs. We look for him to get back on track here. The White Sox have dominated the Indians in head to head play going back to last season, taking 15 of 22 games, including all three this season.