Steve Janus
Philadelphia Phillies -113
The Philadelphia Phillies are showing some incredible value at -113 with Roy Halladay on the mound. Halladay is one of the elite pitchers in the game today, and rarely will you find him at this price. We also get a Philadelphia team that has won 5 of their last 7 overall.
Halladay is coming off back-to-back losses in his last two starts, but that isn't to say he didn't pitch well. Halladay allowed just five runs over 14 innings and comes into the game today 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in five starts. If that isn't enough to get you to jump on the Phillies, Halladay is 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in six career starts vs. Atlanta.
The Phillies are 36-19 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons and an impressive 15-5 against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -1.5
It's only a matter of time before the talented Los Angeles Angels go on a big run. I believe that time is now, starting with a 3-game sweep over the Minnesota Twins. After winning the first two in this series, I fully expect the Angels to roll again tonight.
Jered Weaver is one of the best starters in the league. He has been knocking on the door of a Cy Young award over the last several years, and he's off to a fast start this season. Weaver is 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.953 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings in 2012.
Twins starter Liam Hendricks is no match Weaver. The youngster is 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.595 WHIP through three starts this season. Hendricks has given up 11 earned runs, 16 base runners and three homers over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts.
Weaver is 34-10 in home games after a win in his career, and his teams are winning by an average score of 5.3 to 3.0 in this spot. Minnesota is 14-37 after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are losing 3.7 to 5.7 on average in this situation. Bet the Angels on the Run Line.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAYS
SAN FRANCISCO -120 over Miami: The Marlins took game 1 of this series 2-1 last night, but I don't expect them to duplicate that feat tonight. Miami is now 3-9 on the road and they really don't play well offensively, away from their own park. The Marlins have scored just 2.4 rpg away from home this year, while in their last 8 road games they have scored a total of 10 runs. That ain't good at all LOL. Tonight they face a rejuvenated Barry Zito, who comes in with 1-0 mark and a 1.67 ERA in his 4 starts. Those starts included a 9 inning shutout win at Colorado, where you don't see many shutouts happen. Barry is also 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish. Let's also note that current Miami players (hitters only) are hitting just .150 (12-80) off Zito, with just 1 HR and 6 RBI's. Carlos Zambrano has a nice 3.24 ERA on the year, but he is 0-2 and the Fish are 0-4 in his starts. That's mainly because they score just 2.3 rpg for him. Carlos is 1-1 with a solid 2.05 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Giants, while in his last 3 starts here he is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA. The Giants have scored just 2.7 rpg at home, but they do hit better at home (.245) than Miami does on the road (.199) and the Giants have allowed just 2.3 rpg at home, while Miami has allowed 3.4 rpg on the road. I don't know if Zito is all the way back, but he is pitching like it and should have another good outing vs a Miami team that just cannot hit or score on the road.
Washington/ Arizona Under 7: What a pitching matchup we have in this one. Joe Saunders is off to an incredible start with an 0.90 ERA in 4 starts and he has yet to allow an ER in 2 road starts this year. He should continue with those strong numbers after this one as he will be taking on a Washington offense that has struggled all year. the Nats have averaged just 3.3 rpg on the year and just 3.1 rpg at home, including just 2.9 rp/9 innings vs lefties at home. For Arizona they do average 5 rpg on the road, but the Nats have a 1.77 ERA from their starters at home, while overall they have allowed just 3.2 rpg on their home field. Edwin Jackson has had a nice start, with a 3.16 ERA so far, including a 2.61 ERA in his last 3 starts and he should be able to hold the Arizona bats down here. Both starters have WHIPS of under 1.00 for the year and Saunders 4 starts have averaged just 4.8 rpg, while Washington home games have averaged just 6.3 rpg. Just don't see a whole lot of offense in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
HOUSTON -135 over NY Mets: Does scare me a bit to put this play as a top play as i feel that Houston should be favored by more, but we will see. Houston will not be a factor in the playoff race this year, but they are playing good ball right now and will have a chance at a rare sweep today. The Mets have really struggled to put up runs in the first two games, after killing the ball in Colorado. I thought it would continue in this hitters park as well, but the Houston staff has held them to just 3 runs in each of the first two games. It won't get easier for them today as they face the Ace of this staff in Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy is 2-2 with a 1.72 ERA in his 5 starts so far, while at home he is 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Wandy also has 1 day start on the year and it was a 12-0 shutout over the Dodgers. Versus the Mets he is 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA in 7 starts, while in his last 2 starts here vs them he is 1-0 with an 0.65 ERA. The Houston offense has been a big surprise gthis year as they are hitting very well, ranking 8th in scoring and 8th in hitting after ranking 26th in scoring and 10th in hitting last year. They should continue to hit well here vs Chris Schwinden, who has is 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 5 career starts. In his only start of the year he lasted just 4 innings and allowed 6 ER. Should he not last long then he will be turning the ball over to a pen that has a 7.67 ERA on the road this year, compared to a Houston pen that has a 2.73 ERA at home. The Astros get a shot at a rare sweep and while the Mets may have a slight edge offensively, the Astros have huge edges on the mound, in the pen and motivational as well. Look for them to complete the sweep here.
CINCINNATI -1.5 (+135) over Chicago: I was looking to make this a 4 unit play, but I put it here because im a firm believer that all streaks will come to an end and with my luck it will be today. What streak am i talking about? Well the Cubs have played 10 road games and none of them have been 1-run games, while their 7 road losses have all been by 2 runs or more. This team has not played well on the road. The Cubs are also 3-11 in their last 14 games in Cincinnati and of those 11 losses, 10 have been by 2 runs or more. Jeff Samardzjia is 2-1 on the year, with a 4.12 ERA, while on the road he does have 1 of the cubs 3 road wins, but also has a 10.38 ERA in 2 road starts. Bronson Arroyo has had a solid start to his year with a 1-0 mark and a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts, while in his last 3 starts he is 1-0 with a 1.77 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP. Bronson is also 0-0 with a very nice 0.73 ERA in 2 night starts this year. He does have a 2.94 ERA in 25 games (23 starts) vs the Cubs with a record of 9-8 in those games. The Reds have a solid pitching advantage, and they also get the offensive edge here as they have averaged n4.4 rpg at home, while the Cubs put up just 3.5 rpg on the road. The Cubs also have a 4.15 pen ERA on the road, while the Reds have a 2.84 pen era at home. Lets hope that this isn't the 1st 1-run game on the road for the Cubs here. Cincy has all the advantages and have dominated this team at home the last couple of years. Reds by 3+ in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
DETROIT -1.5 (-120) over Kansas City: Justin should have a big game vs a team he has dominated, going 14-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 20 starts vs the Royals, while their offense should also have a good game vs Johnathan Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA on the year. Can you say rout?
LA ANGELS -1.5 (-110) over Minnesota: Liam Hedricks comes in 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA in 3 starts this year and that now makes him 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in 7 career starts. Jered Weaver is 3-0with a 1.14 ERA at home and the Halos have outscored their opponents 17-3 in his home starts. LA needs to win games like this and should follow up last nights 4-0 win with another easy win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
LA Dodgers/ Colorado Under 8.5: Rockie day games have gone 7-1 to the Under this year, Including posting a 3-1 UNDER in their 4 home day games this year. Dodger games with Clayton on the mound have averaged just 6.2 rpg on the year, plus NL games with 2 lefties facing each other are 10-5 to the Under this year. I see a low scoring in Colorado today.
Philadelphia -113 over ATLANTA Both pitchers are having a fine season right now, but I feel the Phils are starting to turn the corner and are ready to take over this division. Halladay is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 meetings with Atlanta and he should have another good showing vs them today. look for the Phils to take game 2 tonight.
Jeff Alexander
NY Yankees -1.5 +115
The Orioles have lost Arrieta's last 4 starts against the Yankees and each of the last 3 defeats have come by 2 runs or more. The Yankees, meanwhile, have won 4 of Nova's 5 career starts versus Baltimore and each of the last 3 wins have come by at least 4 runs. Arrieta is coming off back-to-back losses with each of those coming by 3 runs. The Yanks have won each of Nova's 4 starts this season with 3 of those coming by 4 runs or more. Also, New York is 28-11 in Nova's last 39 starts, winning these games by an average of 2.2 runs. Take the Yankees on the run line.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -159
The Cubs, who are just 2-7 in their last 9 road games, can't be trusted on the road tonight. They have lost 5 of their last 6 against the Reds and 8 of their last 10 in Cincinnati. Chicago's Samardzija has been good in a pair of home starts but has been rocked in his two road outings, as evidenced by his 10.38 ERA and 2.768 WHIP away from home. The Reds are in much better hands with the veteran Arroyo, who is carrying a 2.70 ERA on the season and a 2.97 career ERA versus the Cubs. The Reds are 5-0 in Arroyo's last 5 starts as a favorite. We'll bet the Reds.
Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies -113
With yesterday's 4-2 win, the Phillies have now won 8 straight versus the Braves, including 4 in a row in Atlanta. They'll have an excellent opportunity to continue their dominance in the series with ace Roy Halladay on the hill. He's 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA in 6 career starts versus the Braves. Also, the Phillies are 41-14 in his last 55 starts, 23-5 in his last 28 starts vs. the National League East and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. the Braves. Take Philly.
Teddy Covers
Orioles @ Yankees
PICK: Over 9.5
Baltimore’s lineup is suddenly surging, pounding out 23 runs in their last four games. The Orioles hit Ivan Nova hard, notching ten hits against him when they faced him last month. Nova has suffered from a reverse home/road dichotomy, with a career ERA more than a full run higher when pitching in the Bronx. He was lit up by the Tigers in his last outing: 14 baserunners and six earned runs in just 5.1 innings of work. There’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatic improvement here, and Joe Girardi’s bullpen behind him is not in great shape following yesterday’s early exit from Phil Hughes.
Nova has a strong winning record (20-6) throughout his tenure as a Yankee for one reason and one reason only – loads of run support. The numbers don’t lie: in Nova’s last 20 starts dating back to last year, the Bronx Bombers have lived up to their nickname, producing more than eight runs per game in support of their starter. Don’t expect Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta to snuff out the Yanks offensive onslaught this evening. Arrieta has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four trips to the hill, suffering from shaky command and a propensity for allowing home runs. That’s a bad combination against this powerful Yankees lineup…. Take the Over.
WUNDERDOG
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Pick: Under 7.5
Jered Weaver continues to be one of the top pitchers in baseball as he has been over the past three seasons. He is out of the gate strong at 3-0 and will face a Twins lineup that has over-achieved, but is coming down to earth. Tonight they will be severely challenged. The problem is the Angels lineup is full of promises that are simply not delivering. Albert Puhols has not found the answer vs. AL pitching, hitting just .208 with five RBi's on the season and he has failed to homer into early May. That has put pressure on the rest of the lineup that is struggling right along with him. The Twins are being slowed down as a big dog on the road where they are 21-10-3 to the UNDER in their last 34 as a dog of +201 or more. Weaver has delivered a 38-11-1 mark to the UNDER pitching on grass in his last 50. Play the UNDER.
Vegas Experts
Orioles at Yankees
Play: Yankees -1.5
We'll back the Yankees on the runline tonight with a favorable pitching matchup and strong history to support this play. New York has won 15 of the last 20 meetings here in the Bronx, while Nova has won three of his last four starts against Baltimore. Even better, those three wins saw the Yankees win by a combined 23 runs. Arrieta owns a 0-3 TSR vs. the Yankees in his last three meetings with all three losses combing by at least 2 runs. Lay the run and a half with confidence!
Rocketman
LA Clippers @ Memphis
Play: Memphis -6.5
LA Clippers head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies in Game Two of this first round NBA playoff series. The Grizzlies blew a huge 27 point lead in Game one and lost the game outright. LA Clippers are 17-33 ATS last 3 years against the Southwest Division. Memphis is allowing only 89 points per game over their past five games overall. LA Clippers are 1-4 ATS last 5 games overall. Memphis is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 Conference Quarterfinal games. Memphis is 35-15-1 ATS last 51 games when playing against at team with a .600 or better record. The Grizzlies will bounce back strong here tonight but will play a little smarter in the 4th quarter! We'll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight!
Black Widow
Indiana Pacers -3
After a fluke loss to the Orlando Magic in Game 1, the Indiana Pacers got back on track with an emphatic 93-78 victory in Game 2. I have the Pacers rolling to victory the rest of the way in this series as it's simply a huge mismatch in their favor. This one should be over in five games. Indiana is showing excellent value as a 3-point road favorite here against an Orlando team that is overmatched inside without Dwight Howard. It's a Magic team that is only averaging 79.5 points/game in this series, and one that has scored 81 or less in four of its last five. Indiana's advantage inside has certainly shown through the first two games. The Pacers are outrebounding the Magic by an average of 12.5 boards/game in this series. Take Indiana and lay the points.
Hollywood Sports
Jazz at Spurs
Play: Over
The opening game of this series resulted in a 106-91 victory for San Antonio which fell way Under the 206 Total for this game. Now for Game Two between these two teams that were the 4th and 2nd highest-scoring teams in the league, expect a higher scoring game. Utah (36-31) did not deploy their big front-court of Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors and this rotation helped the Jazz pull down 36.4% of their missed shots this season when these three were on the floor. The Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total following a double-digit loss. San Antonio is a decisive 29-5 at home this year -- and Utah has played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, the Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. San Antonio (51-16) has played 8 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. The Spurs have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite of at least 11 points. Additionally, San Antonio has played 4 straight games Over the Total against an opponent that allowed at least 100 points in their last contest. Take the Over in this one.
Dr. Bob
Utah (+11) at SAN ANTONIO
Double-digit underdogs are 32-12-1 ATS in game 2 if they lost game 1, but my ratings favor the Spurs by 13 points in this game, as they continue to be underrated. The Spurs are 29-6 straight up and 25-7-3 ATS when Ginobili plays this season, including 19-1 straight up and 17-1-2 ATS more recently. San Antonio also has the best bench in the NBA, which is why they’re so good as a big favorite (because they usually continue to stretch the lead when the starters leave the game). San Antonio is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points with Ginobili playing, so I’m going to pass this game despite the 32-12-1 ATS situation favoring the Jazz. I have no opinion on this game.
UNDER (185) - L.A. Clippers at Memphis (-6½)
The line on this game is too high but I’ll lean with Memphis anyway on the basis of a 22-1 ATS game 2 situation. I had the Clippers as the higher rated team heading into this series and the fact that they won game 1 despite Memphis making 11 of 16 3-point shots (6 for 18 for the Clippers) certainly enhances my assessment. The line has been adjusted for the injury to the Caron Butler, but the Clippers are no worse without Butler. The keys to the Clippers are Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and the Clippers have outscored their opponents by 12.4 points per 48 minutes when Paul and Griffin were on the floor without Butler (including +22 points in just 10.7 minutes in game 1), which is much better than the +6.1 points per 48 minutes when Paul, Griffin and Butler were all on the floor together. Butler’s contribution was when he was on the floor with either Paul or Griffin but not both and the Clippers have been outscored by 19.5 points per 48 minutes when all 3 are off the floor at the same time, which will happen more often with Butler not playing at all. Overall, the 70% of the game that the Clippers will have Griffin and Paul on the floor without Butler outweighs the 16% or so that the Clippers will be without either star player on the floor and the loss of Butler is negligible based on the plus-minus analysis for the season. The Clippers were outscored by 27 points in game 1 when Butler was in the game and they were +28 when he was on the bench, which is even more evidence that Butler doesn’t mean much. My ratings favor Memphis by only 4 ½ points in this game but the situation is worth 2½ points, which gives me Grizzlies by 7 points. There is not enough line value to even lean with Memphis at -6 ½ points, but I’d lean with Memphis at -6 points or less.
Game 1 went well over the 183½ point total (99-98 was the final), but that’s only because the teams combined to make 50% of their 3-point shots (Memphis 11 for 16 and Clippers 6 for 18), which added about 16 points to the total over what would be expected by normal 3-point shooting. My math model projects 181 points and Memphis tends to slow things down after a loss (16-4 UNDER following their last 20 losses). I’ll lean Under 183 points or more.
Indiana (-3) at ORLANDO
The Pacers bounced back as expected in game 2 and the line has adjusted, as I also get Pacers by 3 points in my ratings. I have no opinion on the side in this game and the total is tough to call too. The first two games in this series went Under the total and this game applies to a 20-3 game 3 UNDER situation that is based on that. However, the line has been adjusted to reflect the slower than expected pace of the first two games (I also get 184 points using the average pace of the first two games with the expected scoring efficiencies of each team). Normally, there is value towards the under when that 20-3 Under angle applies, but that’s not the case this time. So, I also have no opinion on the total. I have no opinion on this game.