Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 22

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox go for a series sweep today and look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-7 in its last 8 games after dropping the first two games of a series. Chicago is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115)

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 14.219; NY Mets (Harvey) 15.259
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 5
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Under

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.253; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.457
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

Game 955-956: Arizona at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.625; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.562
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Under

Game 957-958: Washington at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 14.530; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Over

Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.337; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.992
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); Under

Game 961-962: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.563; Miami (Slowey) 13.739
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Over

Game 963-964: St. Louis at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lyons) 16.606; San Diego (Smith) 15.650
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Over

Game 965-966: Oakland at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 16.111; Texas (Wolf) 15.284
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Toronto (4:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.641; Toronto (Buehrle) 15.569
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.581; Baltimore (Hammel) 16.477
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Over

Game 971-972: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.649; Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.518
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Under

Game 973-974: Seattle at LA Angels (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Maurer) 14.297; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.908
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Over

Game 975-976: Kansas City at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 13.782; Houston (Lyles) 14.657
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Over

Game 977-978: Boston at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 14.833; White Sox (Santiago) 16.325
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Under

Game 979-980: Minnesota at Atlanta (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Worley) 13.489; Atlanta (Maholm) 15.619
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The White Sox put the wraps on a three-game series with the Red Sox Wednesday night when they send super-surging Chris Sale to the mound at Comiskey Park. Sale takes the hill with team start wins in each of his last five starts while posting a sharp 1.14 ERA in those games. He's also in commanding KW form with 24 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three efforts. With that look for Sale to improve to 9-1 in his career team starts during the month of May here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana at Miami HeatFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pacers gave New York all kinds of problems defensively last series, and we think tonight's series opener against the Heat will be another defensive battle. Miami breezed through the Bucks without any problems but struggled at times against a defensive-minded Bulls team in their last series. Miami was held to under 90 points twice in those five games against Chicago, including 86 points scored in the first game of that series. And lost in Miami's 8-1 winning run through the first two rounds is how well their defense has played, allowing 85 ppg. Pacers have only given up 89 ppg in the playoffs themselves, and we think both teams try to rely on their defense tonight in a slow-paced game.

Steve RosenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last time the Miami Heat had a long layoff between series, they came out rusty and dropped Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Indiana Pacers, who visit the Heat for Game 1 of the conference finals on Wednesday, are hoping that same rust allows them to get a quick leg up on the defending champs. However, the Heat won't take Indiana as lightly as they did the injured Bulls. They are going to come out strong and WIN the game by double digits. Keep in mind Chris Bosh was not in most of the series last spring, so keep that in mind for people who think the Pacers are the better team,THERE NOT!

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia vs. MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cliff Lee (4-2, 2.83 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lee was unfortunate to get saddled with a no-decision vs. the Reds last Friday, giving up two runs off six hits over seven frames, striking out seven and walking two. Lee is finally hitting his stride, quietly putting together a dominant stretch by not allowing more than two runs in each of his last three outings (note that Lee is 1-1 with a respectable 3.38 ERA in his last three vs. the Fish). Lee will be opposed by Kevin Slowey (1-4, 3.44 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off seven hits over three frames vs. the Diamondbacks on Friday. Slowey has stumbled a bit over his last two starts, seeing his ERA rise from 1.81 to 3.44; a date vs. the Phillies is just what the doctor ordered though as the right-hander is 1-0 with a minuscule 0.73 ERA over his last two starts vs. Philadelphia already this season. I believe the table is set for these veterans to battle each other into the latter frames as they take advantage of these inconsistent line-ups.

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati +108FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The New York Mets Matt Harvey has been a delight to watch this season with a perfect 5-0 record and several dominant performances and odds are he is going to have a brilliant year if they let him keep pitching instead of capping his innings. Despite his record though the Mets have lost two of his starts and I like this spot against a very good hitting Cincinnati lineup. The Reds have a Mat of their own and he also has a perfect record at 4-0. This Mat, Latos, has a much longer track record of success including a 2.70 ERA against the Mets for his career. I think Latos can outduel Harvey and the talent surrounding each is clearly better for Cincinnati. Take advantage of the Reds as a slight dog.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland at TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of hittable pitchers are on the mound Wednesday in this early game. Jarrod Parker goes for Oakland and he's 2-5 with a 6.04 ERA allowing 81 base runners in 47+ innings! This is a tough park to pitch in, with the Ball Park in Arlington a small, home run happy park. Oakland is ranked 9th in baseball in runs scored, Texas ranks 5th. The over is 16-5 when the Athletics face the AL West and 23-10-1 over the total in Athletics last 34 road games. Texas starter Nick Tepesch has allowed more hits than innings pitched and is 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA his last three starts. Play the A's/Rangers over the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's all going badly for the Nationals right now. The offense is on vacation, and vs. lefties the Nats are more like Gnats. They have to face one of the best in the game today in Madison Bumgarner, so it's tough to see how this would be the spot where Washington suddenly goes on the offensive. Gio Gonzalez will throw for the visitors, and there's no doubt he can be very tough when he's on his game. But Bumgarner has better numbers and he's clearly got the support of what right now is the better offense. The Giants are also doing pretty good work against lefties. The books are going to make you pay for the privilege of backing the Giants, as this number is by no means cheap. But the variables certainly point to the hosts, so I'll look for the Giants to complete the sweep.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee BrewersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Is Don Mattingly's job on the line in this game? Perhaps so, as many scribes believe Mattingly needed to win this series in Milwaukee to stay employed by the disappointing Dodgers, who lost for the fourth time in five games on this road trip and seventh in the last eight away from home when falling 5-2 on Tuesday at Milwaukee. The Brewers have been wobbling lately themselves, but they have gotten stellar work lately from their bullpen, which hasn't allowed a run in its last five games and will almost surely be called upon once again tonight with Wily Peralta (who, despite his 5.94 ERA, did beat the Dodgers on April 27 at Chavez Ravine). Note that Dodger starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is off his worst start of the season when getting cuffed last Friday in Atlanta, lasting just 5 innings in an 8-5 loss, while LA bats are hitting just .184 and have scored only 8 runs in the last four games. Play Brewers on Money Line

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis -107FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tyler Lyons makes his Major League debut for the Cardinals against Burch Smith, who has been rocked in his two outings. Lyons is a lefty, which is a benefit for us because lefties, especially control pitchers like Lyons, tend to have a lot of success their first time around the league. Lyons sits in the 89-91 range with the fastball, has a plus slider, and has a career 3.47 K/BB ratio in the minor leagues. The Padres have not fared well against left handed pitching so far, with a .293 wOBA and just a .306 OBP. The Cardinals bullpen has stabilized a lot with a 2.72 ERA in May and they're playing some good baseball of late, with a 13-5 record in the month of May entering Tuesday night's action.
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Burch Smith has lasted just 6.1 innings in his first two Major League starts and he draws a difficult Cardinals lineup on Wednesday night. Four of Smith's 11 hits allowed have left the ballpark and he allowed three of them in his last start at Petco Park. Not only has Smith struggled, but the fact that he has been unable to work deep into games has forced the Padres into their bullpen very early and that's never a good thing for a team. Smith just doesn't appear to be ready. He pitched just 31 innings in Double-A before getting the call and skipped Triple-A altogether.
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With the Cardinals playing great baseball and a favorable pitching matchup, there's a lot of value in taking them here as a small favorite.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. LA AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While the price is admittedly a little steep, all signs indicate that the Angels should have the edge again this evening.
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Wilson should be pleased to be opposed by someone other than Chris Sale. He's been matched up against Sale each of his last two starts. He pitched well in both those games but was outduelled by Sale, who didn't allow a run in either game.
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Wilson, who is 12-5 vs. Seattle, has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven straight games.
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Wilson figures to finally get some run support here as Maurer is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA. He averages five innings per start, allowing a home run per outing. He's walked eight batters in his last three starts, a span of 15 innings. Opposing batters are hitting .295 against him for the season.
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The Angels bullpen is well-rested. Not only did LA get eight complete innings from Williams last night, the previous day was an off day. On the other hand, the M's played an extra inning game Monday, then traveled across the country. They also only got 3 2/3 innings out of Harang, last night's starter.
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The Angels also have a far better (and hotter) lineup, one which exploded for 15 hits last night.
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With yesterday's victory, the Angels are now 14-7 the last 21 times they were a host in this series. Consider laying the wood.

SC Live Dogs

Reds at -103

The Reds are undervalued in this spot after winning their last 9 of 11 games as well as averaging 5 rpg while allowing 2 rpg during that span compared to the Mets who have lost their last 9 of 12 games while averaging 3 rpg and allowing 5 rpg during that span. The reason that the Mets are the early favorite in this one is because of the public perception of the Mets young phenom in Matt Harvey who brings his 5-0 record to match his 1.56 era into Wednesdays daytime matchup. The first area for concern with Harvey is that Wednesdays start will be the first time in 2013 that a team will be facing him for the second time, especially the hot hitting Reds. Along with that is the fact that Harvey's last two starts have come against the below average offensive teams in the Pirates and Cubs where he has seen his K totals decrease in May where as his Hits allowed totals have increased. A few more numbers of interest is the fact that Harvey has allowed just 3 HRs all season with all 3 of those coming on 4 days of rest (which he will be on Wednesday) and two of those three HRs coming during the day. The Reds will be starting Mat Latos who comes into Wednesdays game with a 2-0 road record to match his 2.53 era. Latos has also posted good numbers during the day this season where he has a 3-0 record and a 3.82 era where he has allowed just 3 HRs through 30 innings of work. This Mets team has a combined 60 ABs off of Latos where they have a .200 average with just 1 HR. A few trends to keep in mind for Wednesdays game are that the Reds are 10-4 with a total of 7 or less while the Mets are 7-6 with a total of 7 or less. The Reds are 13-8 in day games while the Mets are 9-11 in day games. The Reds are 8-2 against the Mets over the last three seasons.

Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the NY Yankees with Hiroki Kuroda on the mound against the Baltimore Orioles... a team that has been stumbling and bumbling until last night.

Kuroda has not only been pitching well of late for the Yankees, he's dominated the Orioles in three career starts against them.

The first number that stands out is the total number of innings pitched. When researching this game I expected to see something like 19 or 20 innings... but I was shocked to see Kuroda had lasted 24 1/3 innings in three starts.

Folks, that's more than eight innings per start against the Orioles --- but what's even more shocking is that he actually suffered a loss in those three starts. He's 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in those starts but hasn't gotten a ton of run support in two of them.

In his last start (earlier this year), Kuroda went all nine scattering five hits and no walks in a 3-0 shutout.

Baltimore counters with Jason Hammel who, although he beat them in his last home start against the Bronx Bombers, is 2-3 lifetime with a 5.82 ERA.

Hammel is just one of many Baltimore starters struggling right now and after holding the Yankees to two runs last night, you can bet they'll come out firing tonight.

Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.

3* N.Y. YANKEES

Jeff Benton

Your Wednesday freebie comes on the total in the Eastern Conference Finals, as I play the Pacers and the Heat to end up in the Over column.

The teams played three times this season, each of the last pair going Over the total. That puts the Over at 5-1 the last six times these rivals have faced one another.

Indiana's clinching game on Saturday night against the Knicks wound up going Over the total, while three of Miami's last four in their semifinal series with the Bulls also wound up going Over the total.

Miami has been off for the past week, so they may come out a little sluggish, but with a total of just around 183 points, it won't take long before the Heat get some offense cranking.

Game One of the East Finals to land Over the total.

2♦ INDIANA-MIAMI OVER