NHL Predictions
Ottawa Senators +129 & Penguins / Senators Under 5.5
The Penguins took the first two games 4-1 and 4-3 in Pittsburgh, but the Senators bounced back at home wiht a 2-1 overtime win on Sunday after tying it up late. Craig Anderson looked like he got back to form stopping 49 of 50 shots against. He is the backbone for this Ottawa team and can carry them to victories when he is playing well. Even with letting 8 goals against in the first two games of this series Anderson has a 2.17 GAA and .940 SV% in these playoffs. Tomas Vokoun has been even better since taking over the starting role with a 1.61 GAA and .949 SV%. Both goalies had shaky Game 2s but both got back to form in Game 3 and I expect the same tonight leading to a low scoring game. The Senators are 3-0 at home in these playoffs beating Montreal 6-1 and 3-2 on home ice. Take note that the Senators have won 14 of their last 20 games on home ice. Getting a generous underdog price at home I will take the SENS to win and the UNDER 5.5 goals.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Miami Marlins
The simulator shows a significant probability that Miami will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?67-45 record for just 60% winners, BUT has made 40 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on all NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MIAMI) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and is a solid fielding team turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season. The average play ahs been a +130 dog adn represents and under scores the need to identify DOGS that win on a consistent basis if you intend on making profits in the money line sport of MLB. You may remember I had the Marlins at +160 in their decisive 5-1 win over the Phillies and their ace Cole Hamels. This was the first 15* DOG play and was combined with 15* Padres, who also won, and paid off 5:1 on the 5* parlay bet. In similar fashion to Hamels, Lee is just 4-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). Moreover, he is just 5-11 (-11.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Take Miami.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Cubs +125
The Cubs get the call as our free play given the success they've had at Pittsburgh and the success Samardzija has had against the Pirates. The Cubs have won 7 of their last 10 in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates haven't been able to figure out Samardzija, who is 4-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 14 games - three starts - against them. All of the wins - including the three starts - have come in his last four visits to Pittsburgh, compiling a 0.69 ERA. Bet the Cubs.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -130
After losing the first two games of this series to the Chicago White Sox, the Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep. I like their chances of getting revenge tonight considering the huge edge they have on the mound.
Clay Buchholz has been nothing short of brilliant this season. The right-hander has gone 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in nine starts in 2013, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in three road starts.
Sure, Hector Santiago has pitched well this season for Chicago, but he is in a very tough spot tonight. Santiago will only be working on three days' rest so his innings will be limited. He is taking Chris Sale's turn in the rotation due to a shoulder injury suffered by Chicago's ace.
This play falls into a system that is 41-15 (73.2%) since 1997. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.
Teddy Covers
New York at Baltimore
Play: Under
The Yankees have been the single most profitable road team to support in all of baseball through the first seven weeks of the season; up more than seven units of profit through their first 21 road tilts. They haven’t lost a road series since April, and are in prime bounceback position following last night’s extra inning loss at Baltimore.
Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda was been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. Kuroda has been nothing short of brilliant for more than a month – seven consecutive quality starts, while allowing a grand total of eight runs during that entire span. The Yanks are 6-1 in those seven starts, including Kuroda’s complete game five hit shutout victory over the same Orioles lineup that he’ll face today. It’s surely worth noting that he shut down Baltimore in all three meetings against them last year (including one in the playoffs), a hot pitcher with a strong recent track record of success against tonight’s opponent.
Baltimore’s Jason Hammel is anything but hot right now; lit up for 27 hits and 17 earned runs in just 14.2 innings of work over his last three starts. His quote doesn’t inspire much confidence in an immediate turnaround today: “I’m missing out over the plate, arm-side with my fastball. It's a pretty simple fix, but for right now, it's seemingly a little bit difficult for me." With the Orioles previously strong bullpen showing signs of weakness (three blown saves from Jim Johnson over the past week), there’s plenty of opportunity for a late inning New York rally should we need it.