Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday May, 23

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers send Marco Estrada to the mound against Barry Zito and the Giants in the finale of this three-game series in Milwaukee Wednesday afternoon knowing Estrada is in commanding KW form with 25 strikeouts and 4 walks in his five starts this season. With Zito having trouble finding the plate of late with 14 strikeouts and 15 walks in his last four starts, we'll stay at home with the steadier serves of Estrada as the Giants fall to 1-6 on Wednesdays this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers refuse to slow down as they have now won six straight games to improve to 30-13 on the season and increase their lead to a commanding seven games over the Giants in the National League West with every other teams at least 11.5 games back. They have been dominant at home with a 19-4 record but three straight road wins have put them over .500 on the road and at this price, we are getting more value. Los Angeles has won six straight games as an underdog. The Diamondbacks had lost 10 of 12 games before putting together a modest 4-2 run but they have dropped the first two games of this series as the pitching has been hammered both games. That has been the case a lot this season as Arizona has a 4.23 ERA and that balloons to 5.19 in its home games which is the second worst in baseball. The Diamondbacks are just 7-14 at home this season and this came after a 4-0 start so things have certainly gone south in Arizona. The Dodgers send Ted Lilly to the mound and while he has had two very strong years with Los Angeles, his third year has been sensational so far. He is 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in seven starts with six of those being quality outings. He has allowed one run or fewer in five of those games and going back to last season, he has allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive road starts. Also going back, the Dodgers are 8-0 in his last eight starts against teams with a losing record. The Diamondbacks counter with Joe Saunders who has already a roller coaster type of year. He opened with five straight quality outings before allowing six runs in consecutive starts against the Cardinals and Giants. He bounced back with a quality game last time out against the Royals but is now back home where his ERA is a horrible 6.04 thanks to those two bad outings. He has had mild success against the Dodgers but Arizona lost all three of his home starts against the dodgers last season.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies fit a solid system that has won 27 of 34 times. We want to play on certain home favorites with a total of 8 or less that lost as a home favorite of -140 or higher in game where the total was 8 or less and they scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits and had 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs. The Phillies also have a nice pitching edge here with Hamels who has won 16 of 21 team starts vs the Nationals with a fine 2.62 era. He has won 3 of 4 at home this season and opposes E. Jackson here tonight. Jackson allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in his only start here in Philly and has lost all 4 road starts this season. Look for the Phillies to bounce back tonight.

Freddy Wills

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins

What a great name for a pitcher that's considered to be on of the hottest pitchers going right now with a 1.40 ERA over his 1st three starts of the year. Diamond was dominant against both the Blue Jays and Angels going 14 IP combined while allowing 0 ER. He'll face the White Sox who are 21st in OPS vs. LHP with a .663 and the White Sox have 42 AB with a .238 and .646 OPS against him. It should be interesting if the Twins continue their quiet hot hitting and dominance over the White Sox.

Twins are 17-5 in their last 22 at Chicago and are quietly 9th with a .736 OPS vs. LHP. That is relevant because they'll face Chris Sale who struggles to go deep into games. At home he's gone just 5, 6, and 5 innings over his 3 starts and that is a major issue considering the White Sox have a 4.66 bullpen ERA at home and carry a 5.23 bullpen ERA over their last 10. Speaking of their last 10 games the Twins are smoking the ball with a .267 average and 6.46 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Joe Mauer is one of the reasons why as he looks to have returned to his old form.

Notable Hot Starters:
Kevin Millwood (2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
Cole Hamels (3-0, 0.95WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Doug Fister (0-3, 1.16 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (3-0, 0.91 WHIP, 1.17 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (2-1, 1.28 WHIP, 2.50 ERA)
Jeff Sammardija (2-1, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Ted Lilly (3-0, 0.98 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
With six sports picks to monitor for cold starters the pitcher with the best shot at winning that we chose has got to be Jerred Weaver who is posting a 6.06 ERA over his last three starts. That is a bit of a mirage because Weaver has an overall ERA of 2.80, but his recent struggles are limited to one bad start on the road at Texas where he gave up 8 ER in 3.1 IP. He's not the only guy struggling in Texas so it was no surprise. In the last year Weaver posts a 5-1 record and a 1.21 ERA.

Notable Cold Starters:
Johnathan Niese (1-2, 1.86 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Jake Arrieta (1-2, 1.71 WHIP, 7.41 ERA)
Jarrod Parker (1-2, 1.84 WHIP, 6.14 ERA)
Luis Mendoza (1-2, 1.79 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 2.16 WHIP, 9.42 ERA)

Dave Cokin

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Not much to choose between Niese and Morton, but with that the case, the clearly superior Pittsburgh pen has a good chance to decide this game. I'll take the Pirates to top the Mets.

Jim Feist

Nationals vs Phillies
Pick: Under

A pair of outstanding pitching staffs and weak offenses meet in Philadelphia. Washington has the top staff in baseball in goes with Edwin Jackson (3.31 ERA) against the weak Phillies lineup. Jackson has fanned 46 in 51 innings with only 10 walks and 40 hits allowed. The Phillies counter with ace Cole Hamels (6-1, 2.48 ERA), who is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA his last three starts. The under is 16-5 in Nationals last 21 road games vs. a left-handed starter while the under is 17-8-3 in Hamels' last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams meet the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Nationals/Phillies under the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Boston Over 175.5: Would love to pick my Sixers in this one, but just can't pull the trigger, so I will look to the OVER in this one. These teams have been running a bit more lately and it has resulted in the teams averaging 186.3 ppg in the last 3 games of this series. Philadelphia has played some great defense this year and have allowed just 85.7 ppg at home, but Boston did score 101 and 107 points vs them in 2 of the last 3 games, including putting up 107 points on them in this building in game 3. Phily is not a great scoring team, but they still average 92 ppg at home while the Celtics give up 93 ppg on the road. Both teams are pushing tempo right now and with this being a possible elimination game for Philly you can expect them to throw everything offensively at the C's that they can, plus if they are down late they will start fouling as well. Both teams should hit 90+ points in this one as it goes over the total with ease.

JR O'Donnell

Philadelphia 76ers -2

This is a backs against the wall game for these Phi 76ers, while the Celtics can always return to Boston for game "7". The odds are against the Celts, as when they have been in a 3-2 lead they have only won game #6 2 times in "6" tries! The closeout game is the toughest to win, and over the last five years the Celtics have succeeded only once. Boston is 2-5 ATS in the last "7" after a SU win, 1-4 ATS after a ATS win, and Sixers are 5-2 in their last "7" as a favorite and the 76ers are 4-0 in playoff games following a loss.Power Rated @ - 3.66 points for the Sixers

David Banks

Boston Celtics +2

The Boston Celtics (46-31, 39-36-2 ATS) and the Philadelphia 76ers (41-36, 39-37-1 ATS) continued to alternate wins over the first five games of this series with the Celtics dominating the second half of Game 5 at home to take a 3-2 series lead. The Celtics went on a deciding 43-19 run spanning the third and fourth quarters en route to what became an easy 101-85 win Monday. Thus far, each team has won once on the road with the 76ers stealing Game 2 in Boston and the Celtics bouncing back with a blowout win on the road in Game 3, and the Celts now have a chance to close things out on the road in Game 6 from the Wells ***** Center from Philadelphia, PA on Wednesday night at 8:00 ET on ESPN.

Curiously it was not one of Boston's Big Three or even Rajon Rondo that carried the scoring load for the Celtics on Monday, but rather it was the least heralded member of the starting lineup Brandon Bass who poured in a career high 27 points at the most opportune time. Bass hit on nine of his 13 field goal attempts including quite a few mid-range jumpers that the Sixers were basically giving him. Bass scored 18 of his points in the third quarter alone to allow the Celtics to stay close before commencing on their monster run beginning at the tail end of the quarter. Kevin Garnett added 20 points and Rondo had his customary 14 assists, but was a quiet night for the other members of the Big Three as Paul Pierce had 16 points and Ray Allen scored only five while uncharacteristically making just one of his five three-point attempts. Boston still ended up shooting a blistering 52.2 percent (36-for-69) for the game however as even backup Greg Stiemsma was a perfect five for five from the field. Now the Celtics also dominated the first half of Game 4 here in Philadelphia before falling apart in the second half, a fate they would like to avoid this time around.

The 76ers actually played very well in the first half on Monday, yet Boston hung around and trailed only 50-47 despite Philadelphia appearing to be carrying the play by a much wider margin to the naked eye. That inability to gain separation proved costly in the end, and it just goes to show you just how much better a team Boston is in this series. Still, the Sixers did not win two games by accident as this is an excellent defensive team most of the time, although that was not apparent in Game 5. Perhaps the return home will motivate the 76ers to make some stops as they are allowing only 85.7 points per game on 44.1 percent shooting in this building all year combining the regular season and playoffs. Philadelphia held Boston to 42.3 percent shooting in Game 4, when the 76ers overcame a 15-point halftime deficit by holding the Celtics to 37 points in the second half. The Sixers will need that kind of defensive intensity from start to finish here to avoid beginning to make their summer plans.

Given that both of these teams are known for defense, it is rather surprising that the 'over' is 4-1 in this series so far, as well as 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings overall. Also, when the Celtics reclaimed home court advantage by winning Game 3 here after losing Game 2 at home, it marked the only time in their last six trips to Philadelphia that the Celtics covered the point spread.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +101 over PITTSBURGH

The Mets won the opener last night, 3-2 and will once again face a Pirates lineup that ranks dead last in the NL in runs scored and BA. To add insult, the Mets' lineup is hitting .284 on the road, which is best in the NL. The Bucs have won just two of Charlie Morton’s seven starts and current Mets batters are hitting .309 off him. Morton is a mediocre pitcher with glaring weaknesses, one of which is his ineptitude against left-handed bats. New York will have at least five left-handers in tonight's lineup and that doesn’t even include David Wright and his .403 BA. Meanwhile, a turnaround for Jonathon Niese is inevitable. His skills are too good for him to be sitting with a 4.85 ERA and a 5.70 road ERA. Niese has an xERA of 3.58 due to a strong profile right across the board that shows 18 walks and 39 K’s in 43 IP, a 51%/19%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate and a low strand rate of 71%. They say numbers don’t lie but in Niese’s case they do. He’s been unlucky and a date with the Pirates is just what the doctor ordered. Play: N.Y. Mets +101 (Risking 2 units).

TAMPA BAY -113 over Toronto

The Rays are a short price here at home because they’re facing Toronto’s ace, Ricky Romero. Romero is the ace by name only and it’s created a big time underlay. Romero’s skills continue to decline. His control is bordering on troublesome with 30 walks and 42 K’s in 59 frames. In the past month, Romero has walked 22 and whiffed 29 in 40 frames. He’s received a trifecta of help in his high strand rate of 80%, double plays induced and line-drive rate of 14%. Romero has pitched a lot of innings over the past three years and it’s no coincidence that a skills erosion every year has followed. Romero is on the verge of a string of poor outings and it’s also worth noting that the Rays have beaten Toronto five of seven games this season and that the Blue Jays are hitting just .226 on the road. Enter James Shields. James Shields was close to elite before this season and has now become a groundball pitcher with an outstanding rate of 59%. He added a cut fastball to an already strong repertoire of pitches and he’s throwing it 25% of the time. Shields’ xERA of 3.02 is one of the best in the AL and he should have little trouble disposing of the Blue Jays “B” lineup that John Farrell uses on a day game after a night game. Play: Tampa Bay -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).

ST. LOUIS -1½ +116 over San Diego

In four starts, Jeff Suppan is 2-2 with an ERA of 3.00. He has Petco Park to thank for that. It’s all about to change for perhaps the biggest stiff in the league with the most misleading ERA in the league. In 21 innings, Suppan has struck out four batters while walking nine. His xERA over his last two starts was 8.06. Suppan is 37-years-old with poor skills and the best news about all of this is that the Cardinals hitters know his tendencies because they watched him pitch every fifth day when he threw for them last season. Also note that current Cardinals hitters are batting .338 off Suppan in 142 career AB’s. Lance Lynn is as good as his 6-1 record and 2.31 ERA suggests. He has 49’s and 16 walks in 51 frames to go along with a 51% groundball rate. Lynn will face a Padre team that is hitting .219. Lynn’s xERA of 2.79 confirms he’s no flash in the pan. This has to be considered one of the biggest pitching mismatches of the season. Play: St. Louis -1½ +116 (Risking 2 units).

SCOTT DELANEY

Tonight I'm going to Philadelphia for the same total winner, as I like tonight's game to go over the posted number.

Though we're talking about two of the better defensive teams in the league, make note these Atlantic Division rivals have gone over in six of this season's last eight meetings, including the NBA Playoffs. While the average posted total in those seven games has been about 173.9 points.

Yet when they get on the court, it's a different story, with the actual totals landing on 174, 185, 182, 183, 163, 198, 175 and 186. Only three of those eight failed to get to at least 182 points, and the average overall has been 180.75 points.

And if there is any way the Sixers are going to steal momentum in this game, it's going to have top be with a strong offensive effort, igniting the roudy Philadelphia crowd, while thwarting a filthy Celtics defense.

I expect a fast-paced game tonight boys, and for this total to easily get over the posted number.

3♦ SIXERS/CELTICS OVER

MATT RIVERS

As for your comp play this Wednesday night, why not back the Washington Nationals in the underdog role as they gun for the three game sweep of Philadelphia.

This will be Cole Hamels' first start versus the Nats since admitting to hitting Bryce Harper last month. I have a feeling Washington will be a little extra-juiced to get after the southpaw tonight.

The Nationals have owned the Phillies of late, winning nine of the last ten series meetings dating back to last season. The lone Philadelphia win is owned by Hamels in that game in which he tagged Harper, so again, expect the Nats to be very aggressive in their approach at the plate in this one.

Washington starter Edwin Jackson has been a bit of a "hard luck" hurler, as Jackson is just 1-1 this year, but owns a very respectable 3.31 ERA for the season, and a 2.70 ERA for his last three starts.

Hamels has been the lone consistent bright spot in the Philadelphia rotation, but the fact of the matter is the bats and the bullpen have really been a problem for Charlie Manuel's club, and Philly has now lost their last four games coming in this series finale.

Worth a shot to back the Nationals at this price, so let's do just that.

2♦ WASHINGTON

JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game to hold Under the posted total with Ted Lilly and Joe Saunders on the mound.

True, Saunders has lost his way of late, as he is 0-2 with an ERA approaching 10 over his last three starts, but he is certainly capable of returning to form with a quality effort tonight. Remember, over his first five starts this year, Saunders did not allow more than two runs to score in any of those five.

As for the Dodgers, Ted Lilly has been rock-solid. Lilly is off to a 5-0 start through his first seven starts, and there is nothing wrong with that 1.79 ERA at all. That track record suggests it is going to be tough for the Diamondbacks to muster much offense.

The Snakes did score seven runs last night, but in the three games prior totaled just six total runs. In this series, the Under has gone 4-3-1 the last eight times the teams have played.

I know Saunders has been bad, and even if he is bad again tonight, it is not likely the Dodgers will be able to take this game Over the total by themselves, and I don't see the D-Backs getting much more than a run or two off of the Stingy Lilly.

Take the Under in the Dodgers-Diamondbacks rubber game.

4♦ UNDER

Bryan Power

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Detroit Tigers

Cleveland is not a team I particularly believe in, so following the Tribe holding on for a 5-3 victory in last night's series opener, I'm coming back with Detroit on Wednesday. Prior to last night's loss, the Tigers had beaten the Indians nine straight times. Obviously, outside of sensational ace Justin Verlander, this team has been one of the big disappointments in the early going of the Major League Baseball season. But they stand a good chance of winning tonight with Doug Fister getting the start. Fister has been excellent so far with a 1.89 ERA in four starts, but has nothing to show for it (no wins) thanks to some lousy run support. That says to me somebody's due for a win tonight.

The Indians' Zach McAllister is 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA since being recalled from Triple A Columbus. Last time out he threw 100 pitches and could not get out of the fifth inning, also issuing a career five walks in the process. This boils down to the fact Detroit is not as bad as it has played in the early going while Cleveland is not as good as their record indicates.