Sean Murphy
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
These two teams have split the first two games of this series, but the Rays have actually dominated the season series, winning five of seven games, and I'm confident they'll get the job done in today's rubber match in St. Petersburg.
Toronto has scored 16 runs in its last three games, yet has only one win to show for it over that stretch. The Jays are a solid road team at 12-10 on the season, but that pales in comparison to the Rays 16-7 mark at home.
Tampa Bay has dropped four of its last six games, and should be desperate to string together consecutive wins for only the second time in the last two-and-a-half weeks.
Ricky Romero gets the nod for the visiting Jays. He's off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season, but hasn't exactly been dominant, posting a 3.64 ERA. The road hasn't been kind to the left-hander, as he's gone 1-1 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.52 WHIP away from home.
Note that the Rays will be getting their seventh look at Romero since the start of last season. They had some success against him in their first look this season, collecting eight hits and three walks, leading to three runs in six innings.
Tampa Bay will counter with its ace, James Shields. He's had a bit of a rough ride over his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. A matchup with the Jays should help his cause, as he's held them to just two earned runs while striking out 25 in his last three starts against them, spanning 25 1/3 innings pitched.
Although Shields hasn't been at his best here at Tropicana Field this season, recording a 4.32 ERA, he has still managed to post a 3-1 team record in four starts.
The Rays are missing plenty of bats from their lineup right now, but their offense is still capable of breaking out, as we saw in last night's 14-hit barrage that led to eight runs. This is a big game for both teams with only two games separating them in the A.L. East, but I'll give the nod to the == Rays at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +110 over N.Y. RANGERS
We have the Devils in the series but have no hesitation in playing them in this pivotal game five as well. One could argue that the Rangers should already be watching from the rail after being dominated in all four games by a significant margin. This is a one-sided series and the Rangers have few answers in slowing down the Devils. Getting outplayed by such a notable margin is not only disheartening but it’s exhausting and when you combine that with the Rangers' back-to-back seven game series against Ottawa and Washington, it adds to the fatigue. Brad Richards and Marion Gaborik have disappeared. The Rangers extensive use of four defensemen is taking its toll each and every game. Those numerous blocked shots are also taking its toll, as players keep taking pucks to the ankles, knees and mid-section. If this were a prize fight, the referee would have waved his hands already and declared a TKO. The Devils know they can beat this team and the Rangers know their only chance is Henrik Lundqvist bailing them out again. It’s time to put the Rangers out of their misery. Play: New Jersey +110 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ San Diego Over 8: (Added) Boy, 2 days in a row that I have to agree with the Sharps. This play does make sense despite the fact that I have a stat below that says Under. The Cards have some players on the DL and that will certainly hurt their offense, but the middle of their lineup is still solid with Holliday and Beltran, plus the have Furcal at the top of the lineup. That's good news as those three are a combined 21-56 (.375), with 10 extra-basehits off of Suppan in their career. Now Jeff is also a huge dog in this one and that would suggest a St Louis win and he has a 7.14 ERA in his career when he losses the game (went off the grid a bit for that stat). As I said the Cards do have offensive injuries, but they still put up 4 runs in each of the first 2 games of the series, and that was vs better pitching than they will face tonight, plus let's also not that the Cards do score 6.05 rpg at home on the year. THe Padres do score better on the road at 3.44 rpg and they will be facing Lance Lynn, who has allowed 7 ER's in his last 2 starts. Cardinal home games have averaged 10.4 rpg, with the OVER going 15-5 in those games, while Lance's home starts have averaged 10.7 rpg. This one should hit DD with ease.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Baltimore/ Boston Over 9: I know Scotti will love this one right off the bat. Last night I had an easy winner on the Under in this game, but we will go the other way today. This is a day game in a hitters park and with the temps looking to be around 78 the ball should really carry in this one. We also have two pitchers on the mound who have been struggling. Daniel Bard comes in with a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts, with those games averaging 11 rpg, while on the road he carries a 6.20 ERA with him, with those games averaging 10.8 rpg. In his last 2 road starts, Bard has allowed 5 ER's in each and has given up 9 walks to just 4 K's in the two starts. Lot of baserunners to put on, especially when facing an O's team that is tops in HR's. Jake Arietta has really been struggling as he comes in with a 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts, while at home this year he has a 6.41 ERA, with his home starts averaging 10.6 rpg. Jake has also faced Boston 3 times in his career and has a 5.51 ERA in those 3 starts. Boston was held in check by Lefty Matusz last night, but they do hit better vs righties on the road (.266) than lefties (.245) and they also score 5.05 rp/9 off of righties on the road. Baltimore puts up 4.5 rpg at home, but should be able to get a little more than that vs Bard. This one should be fun, with about 12 runs put up.
LA Angels/ Oakland Under 6.5: On the surface it would look like these starters are struggling right now as Weaver has a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Parker has a 6.14 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a closer look will paint a different picture for us. Jered Weaver has just 1 bad start on the year and it was at Texas (no shame there) on ESPN in a game in which he allowed 8 ER in just 3.1 innings of work, but in his other 6 starts this year he has allowed 3 runs just once and 2 runs or less in 5 of those starts. In those starts he pitched 6.2 shutout innings vs Oakland in his first start of the year and that now gives him a 1.50 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the A's and a 2.71 ERA in 21 starts vs them overall. Plus we note that Jered has a 2.69 ERA in 48 career day starts. Jarod Parker also has 1 bad start this year and it was in his last game, on the road vs the Giants, in a game in which he allowed 6 ER in just 2 innings. Now in his other 4 starts this year he allowed 2 ER's or less in each game and he has a 2.37 ERA at home this year. The Halos struggle to score this year and having never faced Parker should mean advantage to the pitcher. Oakland also struggles to score, especially at home where they have averaged just 3.3 rpg, plus current Okland players have hit just .229 with 4 HR's and a mere 13 RBI's in 188 AB's vs Weaver. This one has pitchers duel written all over it, especially when we add in the fact that when Oakland faces a righty this year the UNDER is 22-7-1.
NY Yanks/ Kansas City Under 9: (Added) Will Smith has left Hollywood to pitch for the KC Royals. Ok maybe not, but this will be his first ever start in the majors and this gives him a major advantage over Yankee hitters in this one. Speaking of Yankee hitters, i feel that age may finally be catching up with them as they have averaged just 4.2 rpg in their own park this year, after putting up 5.8 rpg here last year. The Yanks come in hitting just .248 (.200 vs lefties) and they have scored just 2.8 rpg in their last 5 games (all at home), plus thyey have averaged just 3 rpg in Pettites 2 starts this year (both at home). Clearly this is a struggling offense. Pettrite has looked good in his two starts since returning to the rotation as he has a 2.51 ERA in those two starts, while in his last start, vs the Reds, he allowed 0 ER with 9 K's and just 1 walk in 8 innings of work. He should have little trouble vs a KC team that scores just 3.5 runs per 9 innings off lefties on the road. Both teams should have problems getting going vs these two pitchers tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Chicago Cubs at Houston
Pick: Houston -125
The Chicago Cubs are known for losing, and also for the phrase of one of their best ever Ernie Banks, who said, "Let's play two." The reality for the Cubs right now isn't to play two, but to pray for rain. The losing streak has now reached eight games. The Astros, who lost 106 games a year ago, are 15-10 at home and are getting treated like they are last year's team by the oddsmakers. The lines are simply too short on them, especially vs. a bad team that is going bad right now. The Cubs are just 23-48 in their last 71 as a road dog, while the rejuvenated Astros have collected the money seven straight times as a favorite of -110 to -150. Rodriguez is also their best pitching option, and he has beaten the Cubs five of the last six times he has faced them. Play on Houston.
Nelly
Colorado / Miami Over
The Miami offense that most expected to see this season is starting to emerge, scoring 4.6 runs per game over the last ten games and topping seven runs four times in that span. Miami is batting .263 in that timeframe, significantly higher than the season mark of .237. The Marlins have been a much better hitting team for the year against right-handed pitching and Colorado starter Alex White is not offering a great threat. White has a 5.09 ERA in three starts and he was not effective in ten starts last season for Cleveland and Colorado. A bigger issue may be a Colorado bullpen that owns a 1.53 WHIP to go along with a 4.51 ERA. Carlos Zambrano owns a 1.96 ERA but his xFIP is nearly two runs higher at 3.89. Zambrano has benefited from a .231 BABIP so far this season and he has also faced some of the weakest hitting teams in baseball. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is less than 2:1 and control issues can still creep up with the fiery right-hander. Zambrano has also pitched worse at home this season than on the road, featuring a 1.58 WHIP in his three home starts. The Rockies have lost six straight but Colorado has scored 24 runs in those six games, the pitching staff has simply allowed 43 runs. Colorado still scores close to five runs per game on average and the drop off away from Coor's Field is not as substantial as one might think. On the year the Rockies are a solid 'over' team at 23-17 and this match-up should present opportunities for both offenses.
Hollywood Sports
Dodgers vsDiamondbacks
Pick: Over
Arizona (19-25) has struggled at home as they are a mere 7-14 in Chase Field so far this season -- and the Over is 17-6-3 in the Dodgers' last 25 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. The Diamondbacks lost Game Two of this series yesterday by an 8-7 score -- and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last contest. Arizona sends out Joe Saunders for this final game of the series. The left-hander is 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. But while Saunders sports a sizzling 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .220 opponent's batting average when on the road, he sees these numbers climb to a 6.04 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .320 opponent's batting average when at home. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when Saunders was facing a team with a winning record. Arizona has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when Saunders was pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games against the Dodgers Over the Total with Saunders on the hill. Los Angeles (30-13) counters with Ted Lilly who is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP this season. The veteran left-hander has been virtually unhittable at home this year where he enjoys a 1.62 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. But these numbers do become a bit more human when Lilly is on the road where he has a 2.25 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The Over is 8-3-1 in the Dodgers' last 12 road games with Lilly pitching as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Lilly pitching with the number listed in the 9-10.5 range. That trend is right in line with the fact that the Over is 14-6-2 in the Dodgers' last 22 games when the Total was set in that same 9-10.5 range. Given the preponderance of team trends that complement how the Dodgers' proclivity to play Overs against teams with poor records at home, the Over is a nice opportunity tonight -- while listing both starting pitchers Saunders and Lilly.
Teddy Covers
Royals @ Yankees
Pick: Yankees -1.5
Andy Pettitte proved in his last outing that he’s still very capable of pitching at a high level, even on the wrong side of his 39th birthday. Pettitte owned the Reds lineup, throwing eight innings of shutout four hit, nine strikeout ball. Manager Joe Girardi following the vintage performance: “When I caught him, years and years ago, it was fastball, cutter and really curveball. He's got so many more weapons to go to. I thought he could bring some stabilization to our rotation. And I think he'll do that just because of who he is, his personality, his will, his focus. We are a different rotation with him."
KC can’t hit lefties, just 2-8 in their first ten games while hitting 20 points lower and scoring a full run per game less against opposing southpaw starters. The Yankees don’t have that problem, hitting 20 points higher against lefties, with seven wins already this year against opposing southpaws. That’s bad news for rookie hurler Will Smith, who had a losing record and an ERA over 4.00 in Triple A. Smith’s quote doesn’t inspire much confidence: “I'll probably be a little nervous, how can I not be? It's something you've been working for your whole life, and it's finally here. And it's in Yankee Stadium against the Yankees."
We’re getting a cheap price with the run line today because of the Yankees ongoing offensive slump; hitting just .111 as a team with runners in scoring position over their last ten games. Let’s be proactive here and expect the Yanks potent lineup to wake up from their extended slumber against a young pitcher in over his head here. Take the Yankees Run Line +105
Rocketman
Boston @ Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -1
Boston travels to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers in Game 6 of this Eastern Conference Semifinal game. Boston leads the series three games to two. Boston is 30-54 ATS last 3 years after a win by 10 points or more. Philadelphia is allowing only 85.7 points per game at home this season. Boston is 2-5 ATS last 7 games after a win. Boston is 1-4 ATS last 5 games when playing on one days rest. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS last 5 games after allowing 100 points their last game. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a favorite. Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS last 20 home games against a team with a losing road record. Home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings overall in this series. Boston is 1-5 ATS last 6 meetings in Philadelphia. Philadelphia evens this series up tonight and forces a Game 7. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Dodgers +115
The Dodgers are showing some great value as a road underdog at Arizona on Wednesday. Los Angeles has already won the first two games of this series and come in having won six straight. This team just finds a way to win, as they scored 2 runs in the top of the 9th to beat Arizona 8-7 on Tuesday.
Los Angeles will send out Ted Lilly, who has got off to a remarkable start in 2012. Lilly is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.904 WHIP He will be going up against Joe Saunders, who is 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA. Saunders 3.55 ERA doesn't tell the whole story. He is 1-3 with a 6.05 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 9.42 ERA in his last three starts!
The Dodgers are 12-2 in Lilly's last 14 starts, 7-0 in Lilly's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, and 5-0 in Lilly's last 5 road starts.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros -123
The Houston Astros are quietly playing very well of late. They have won five of their last seven overall to sit just three games below .500 on the season. This team features one of the most underrated starters in the league in Wandy Rodriquez, who gets the ball tonight.
Rodriquez is 3-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.094 WHIP through nine starts this season. He'll be opposed by Jeff Samardzija, who has pitched very well at home. The same cannot be said for Samardzija away from home as he has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in four road starts this year.
The Cubs are simply reeling right now. Chicago has lost eight straight coming in, and I'll continue fading this team until they can finally put an end to this dreadful losing streak. They don't score enough runs, their starting staff is sub-par, and their bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.
Houston is a very impressive 7-1 in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The Cubs are 31-64 in their last 95 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago is 7-22 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. Houston is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Astros Wednesday.
Dave Price
Miami Marlins -155
The struggling Rockies, losers of 6 straight and 15 of 18, have been great fade material. The Marlins, meanwhile, winners of 3 in a row and 16 of 21, have been a quality investment. The Marlins have the edge on the rubber with Zambrano. They have won his last 4 starts, during which he has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs. The Rockies have lost White's last 6 starts, and he has given up 5 earned runs or more in 3 of those. Lastly, the Rockies are 1-6 in their last 7 meetings in Miami. We'll take the Marlins.
Black Widow
Washington Nationals +145
This is an excellent price to back the underrated Washington Nationals tonight on National TV. Washington is going to be hungry to get after Cole Hamels after the left-hander said he intentionally hit Bryce Harper the last time these two teams squared off on May 6th. Washington leads the NL East with a 26-17 record, and it's no fluke as their pieces are finally in place to make a run at the playoffs. Their starting rotation has been better than any other in the league, including Philadelphia's. Edwin Jackson was a great addition to the rotation this offseason. Jackson is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.968 WHIP with 46 strikeouts over 51 2/3 innings in eight starts this season. He is fully capable of beating Hamels while shutting down a Phillies line-up that has produced a combined 4 runs in their last three games. The Nationals are 27-11 in their last 38 games following a win. Washington is 21-6 in their last 27 vs. National League East. The Phillies are 3-12 in their last 15 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Philly is 1-7 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Take the Nationals on the Money Line.
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia Phillies -152
Recent history shows the Phillies will be hungry after enduring defeats in the first two games of this series. Consider that they are 7-2 in their last 9 games after losing the first two games of a series. Philly also has the advantage on the mound with Hamels. It has won each of his last 7 starts, during which he hasn't allowed three earned runs in any game. The Phillies are also 7-2 in his last 9 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-0 in his last 5 starts in the 3rd game of a series. Hamels has also been dominant against Nationals, going 11-4 (16-5 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.62 in 21 career starts them. The Phillies have won 10 of his last 11 starts versus the Nats. It also worth noting that the Nationals are 1-5 in Jackson's last 6 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. We'll take the Phillies.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago White Sox -146
The Twins have quietly won 5 of their last 6, but they still have the worst record in the AL. They'll have a tough time getting much of anything off Chicago's Chris Sale tonight. The southpaw is 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 7 starts this season and hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of them. This will be his first start versus the Twins but he's been dominant in his relief appearances against them, allowing only one run in 9 innings while walking 1 and striking out 12. The Twins are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the White Sox.