SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (11-4 SU and ATS) at Orlando (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
The fourth-seeded Celtics take their second shot at advancing to the NBA Finals when they travel to Amway Arena to face the second-seeded Magic, who return home still in must-win mode in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Boston had a chance to sweep Orlando but fell short in Game 4 Monday night, taking a 96-92 overtime loss as a hefty 7½-point home favorite to halt a six-game SU and ATS tear. The Celts had the last possession of regulation, but failed to get off a shot in fumbling the ball away. Paul Pierce had 32 points and 11 rebounds in defeat, Ray Allen poured in 22 points, and Kevin Garnett scored 14 and had 12 boards.
Dwight Howard paced five Orlando players in double figures, as he had by far his best game of this series with 32 and 16 rebounds, and Jameer Nelson added 23 points and nine assists in the win-or-go-home game. The Magic’s long-ranger shooters finally showed up, hitting 10 of 28 from three-point range (35.7 percent), while limiting Boston to 5 of 18 from long distance (27.8 percent). Despite the victory Monday, the Magic face seemingly impossible odds in that no team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, in 93 previous opportunities.
Boston is 5-2 ATS (4-3 SU) in the last seven meetings with Orlando, and the Magic’s SU and ATS win in Game 4 gave the road team and the underdog an 8-1 ATS mark in the last nine clashes in this rivalry. The Celts have covered on their last four trips to Amway, including outright upsets in Games 1 and 2. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 20 of the last 22 meetings between these teams, including 14 of the last 15 and the last five in a row.
Additionally, each of Boston’s last 25 games overall, including all 15 playoff contests, and the SU winner is 19-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 20 contests.
Boston is 31-17 on the highway (26-21-1 ATS) this season (5-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs) and has won its last four playoff roadies – a pair of upsets against top-seeded Cleveland, and upsets in Games 1 and 2 against Orlando in this series.
Orlando is 38-9 at home (27-19-1 ATS), including 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in the playoffs. Prior to dumping the first two games of the East finals, the Magic had won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their previous 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 11-4 ATS mark in the postseason (6-1 last seven), the Celtics are on pointspread tears of 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 4-0 on the highway, 5-0 as an underdog, 15-5-1 as a playoff pup, 6-1 after a day off and 4-1 in conference finals contests.
The Magic are 2-4 ATS in their last six conference finals tilts, but remain on several positive pointspread sprees, including 21-8-1 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 20-7-1 after a SU win, 19-7-1 after a day off, 17-7 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-2 as a playoff chalk and 6-0 as a favorite of than five points.
Boston is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 10-3 in conference finals contests, 5-2 after a day off and 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog, though the over is 35-17 in the Celts’ last 52 following a SU loss. Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 8-3-1 overall (5-1 last six), 20-8-2 at home (all as a chalk), 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 37-13-1 after a day off and 18-7-1 as a playoff favorite.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 12 overall, including six of eight this season. Monday’s game, despite going OT, barely went over the posted price of 187½, after the under hit in the first three games of this series. The total has also remained low in five of the last six Celtics-Magic tilts in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (26-20) at San Diego (27-18)
Jaime Garcia (4-2, 1.28 ERA) looks to continue his incredible rookie season when he leads the Cardinals against the Padres and Kevin Correia (4-4, 4.57) in the middle game of a three-game series at Petco Park.
San Diego got a second-inning home run from Jerry Hairston Jr. on Monday and made it stand up, hanging on for a 1-0 victory. The Padres, who now lead the Dodgers by two games in the N.L. West, are still just 5-6 in their last 11 games overall, 2-6 in their last eight at Petco and they’ve dropped four straight against left-handed starters.. On a positive note, San Diego is on surges of 11-3 against the N.L. Central, 21-8 versus winning teams, 22-7 in the second game of a series and 10-4 on Wednesday.
The Cardinals, who remain tied with the Reds for first place in the N.L. Central, are now 8-12 in their last 20 games overall. Beyond that, Tony LaRussa’s troops have lost seven of 10 on the road and are in additional ruts 1-6 on the road against right-handed starters and 3-8 versus the N.L. West.
Monday’s result aside, the Cardinals have owned this rivalry over the past several years, going 60-22 in the last 82 meetings, including 11-2 in the last 13. St. Louis has also won four of the last six battles in San Diego, but the home team is still 12-5 in the last 17 series clashes.
Garcia has unquestionably been the best rookie pitcher in baseball this season, pitching at least six innings in seven of his eight starts while giving up two earned runs or fewer in every game (and a total of just seven earned runs in 49 1/3 innings). The left-hander is coming off his shortest stint of the season – a five-inning effort against the Marlins a week ago today – but he held Florida scoreless in a game St. Louis eventually lost 5-1
Garcia is 3-2 in five road starts despite a stellar 2.08 ERA, with St. Louis scoring a total of one run in his two defeats. Last year, Garcia made 10 late-season appearances with the Cardinals, including one start, which came against San Diego. In that contest, the 23-year-old gave up three runs on five hits in five innings, getting a no-decision as the Cardinals prevailed 9-5 at home.
Correia has followed up a four-game winning streak with a three-game losing skid, giving up 11 runs (all earned) in 17 1/3 innings (5.71 ERA). His last two losses came against the Dodgers (one home, one road) by identical 4-1 scores. The Padres have scored just four runs in the right-hander’s last three trips to the mound after tallying 38 runs during his four-game winning streak.
With Correia starting, the Padres are on positive runs 4-1 against the N.L. Central, 4-1 on Wednesday and 8-3 in the second game of a series. He’s 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in four home games this year and 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in nine games (three starts) against St. Louis. Last year, he suffered a 7-0 home loss to the Redbirds, yielding five runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” runs, including 11-3 on the road, 7-2 against the N.L. West, 36-15-1 against winning teams and 21-8-2 on Wednesday. Also, the under has cashed in all eight of Garcia’s starts this season, including all five on the road. Similarly, the Padres are on “under” streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 versus the N.L. Central, 5-2 against southpaw starters and 23-8-1 against winning teams.
These teams have topped the total in seven of their last 11 meetings overall, but the under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 at Petco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-18) at Minnesota (26-18)
For the second time in less than two weeks, the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte (5-1, 2.68) matches up against the Twins’ Francisco Liriano (4-3, 3.25) as these teams continue their three-game series at Target Field.
Tuesday’s series-opener was suspended because of poor weather and is slated to pick up today in the top of the sixth inning with the score tied 0-0.
The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak by losing 10 of their last 15 games, including six of eight on the road, to fall five games back of Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 102-49 overall, 39-15 against the A.L. Central, 41-14 on Wednesday, 47-23 versus left-handed starters and 45-21 when coming off a defeat.
The Twins are just 5-7 in their last 12 games – including losing two of three to the Yankees in the Bronx – but they’ve taken a liking to their new stadium by going 14-7 through 21 games at Target Field (5-2 last seven). Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 33 home games, and they’re also on runs of 42-15 at home against lefty starters and 12-5 after a loss. On the flip side, they’ve lost 47 of 69 to A.L. East opponents.
Not only did the Twins lose two of three in New York earlier this month, but they’re 17-52 in the last 69 meetings (playoffs included). Last year, the Yankees went 4-0 in Minnesota, including a 4-1 victory to finish off a sweep of the best-of-5 divisional playoff series.
Pettitte is coming off his first loss of the season, as he got rocked by the Rays for a season-high seven runs (six earned) in five innings on Thursday, surrendering nine hits (three home runs) in an 8-6 home loss. Pettitte had given up two earned runs or fewer and lasted at least six innings in six of his first seven starts, and he served up more long balls to Tampa Bay than he had in his previous eight starts combined (two).
Prior to Thursday, the Yankees had won 10 straight games with Pettitte on the mound. Still, behind the 37-year-old southpaw, New York remains on surges of 20-7 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 37-18 against the A.L. Central and 25-7 on Wednesday. In two road starts this year (both Yankees wins), Pettitte is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, yielding one run in each contest while working a total of 14 innings.
New York is also 7-1 in Pettitte’s last eight starts against the Twins (playoffs included) and 5-2 in his last seven outings in Minnesota. For his career, he’s 12-5 with a 3.34 ERA in 22 starts (two postseason) against the Twins. That includes a 7-1 home win on May 15, when Pettitte scattered just two hits and three walks in 6 1/3 scoreless innings.
Liriano got off to a tremendous start to the season, going 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his first five starts (all Minnesota wins), but he’s stumbled big time in his last three trips to the mound (0-3, 7.02 ERA). Most recently, the lefty got pummeled at Fenway Park on Thursday, allowing five runs on five hits and three walks in a season-low 4 2/3 innings, losing 6-2 to the Red Sox. On the bright side, Liriano has flourished at Target Field, going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts.
Minnesota is 1-6 in Liriano’s last seven versus winning teams, 3-8 the last 11 times he’s started the second game of a series and 1-7 in Liriano’s last eight starts against the A.L. East. That includes the 7-1 loss at Yankee Stadium 11 days ago, when Liriano gave up three runs on nine hits in six innings to fall to 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts against New York.
New York sports “over” trends of 6-1 overall and 10-4 on the road versus southpaw starters, but otherwise the Yanks are on “under” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 11-4 on Wednesday, 6-1 against the A.L. Central, 36-15-2 when Pettitte pitches on the road, 19-7 when he faces the A.L. Central and 9-4 when he works on Wednesday.
Minnesota is on “under” tears of 8-3 at home, 23-7-3 against the A.L. East, 6-0 at home versus southpaw starters, 14-4-4 on Wednesday, 24-7-2 following a loss and 6-2-1 with Liriano on the hill.
Lastly, the under has cashed in five of the last six Twins-Yankees battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at Orlando
The Celtics look to bounce back from their Game 3 loss and take advantage of an Orlando team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+4)
Game 517-518: Boston at Orlando (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 131.810; Orlando 127.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+4); Under
MLB
Texas at Kansas City
The Royals look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 0-6 in Scott Feldman's last 6 road starts. Kansas City is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105)
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.369; Florida (Robertson) 16.743
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.580; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.012
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-175); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.517; NY Mets (Takahashi) 14.867
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.438; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.108
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); No Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); N/A
Game 959-960: Houston at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.646; Milwaukee (Narveson) 13.711
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-105); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 14.780; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.977
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Colorado (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-260); Under
Game 963-964: St. Louis at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.061; San Diego (Correia) 16.667
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over
Game 965-966: Washington at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 13.869; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.051
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-260); Under
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 13.991; Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.388
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over
Game 969-970: Texas at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 14.490; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.827
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over
Game 971-972: Detroit at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.764; Seattle (Vargas) 14.921
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Over
Game 973-974: Toronto at LA Angels (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 16.688; LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.485
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.307; Baltimore (Matusz) 13.660
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+100); Under
Game 977-978: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.601; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.935
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Under
Game 979-980: NY Yankees at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.745; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.235
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Under
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
When the Dodgers send Craig Billingsley to the hill against Tom Gorzelanny and the Cubs at Wrigley Field today they will do so knowing Billingsley has cashed in each of his last three team starts in a row while Gorzelanny is just 6-14 in his last 20 team starts, including 2-6 his last eight at home. With one hurler in good current form and the other struggling, look for the Dodgers to improve to 11-4 in his series here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies look to rebound after taking an 8 to 0 beating in Game 1 of their three-game set with the New York Mets on Tuesday night. The Phillies are averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road this season with a batting average of .281. The Mets are only averaging 4.7 runs per game at home and have a batting average of .268. When they face right-handed starters, we see both of those numbers fall with an average run production of 4.4 runs per game and a batting average of only .244. Philly is 18-6 when playing on the road versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. They are also 14-5 in road games during the month of May and 20-7 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. We will back the visitor here as the Phillies rebound and grab the victory in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 4 New York Mets 3
Rob Vinciletti
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers qualify in a solid system here tonight. What we want to do is play on certain home teams that are off a home favorite win by 5 or more runs if tonight's total is 8 or less and they had 10+ hits and left 5 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss of 5+ runs. These homers have won 23 of 27 times. The Brewers are 12-4 at home vs the Astros. In the pitching match up they have C. Narveson. In his lone home start vs the Astros he did well going 5 innings allowing just 1 run. Houston counters with R.Oswalt in this one. Oswalt recently requested a trade. He has pitched well this year. However due to a lack of run support his record is not a good indicator of his performance. Tonight he faces the Brewers and he has not been as effective here as he has been at other venues. In his last 2 starts vs Milwaukee he has allowed 8 runs and an uncharacteristic 18 hits in just 12 innings. Look for the Brewers to get the win tonight.
Steve Merril
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia tries to snap a three-game losing streak as they play Game 2 of their series with the Mets. Joe Blanton takes the mound with a record of 1-2 and a 5.06 ERA on the season. Blanton was on his way to a victory over the Cubs in his last outing, but settled for a no decision after the bullpen coughed up the lead. The right hander gave up three runs and five hits to Chicago in seven innings pitched. The Phillies starter is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in four career starts against the Mets. He got the win last season against New York allowing just four hits in 7.3 innings of work. Rod Barajas (2-10), David Wright (2-10), Jose Reyes (0-9), Alex Cora (0-5), and Jason Bay (0-2) all have poor numbers against Blanton.
Hisanori Takahashi will make his second start for the Mets after giving up just five hits in six innings his last time out against the Yankees. The left hander has faced the Phillies already this season, but he came out of the bullpen in that game allowing one run in just over an inning of relief. The Philadelphia offense averages 5.2 runs per game against lefties while hitting .259 against them. The price is too good for us not to recommend a play on the Phillies because they have a solid pitching advantage with Blanton over Takahashi in this game.
Jim Feist
White Sox vs. Indians
Take: Under
Chicago just finished a stretch playing 7 of 11 games under the total and the reason is clear: No offense. They are 10th in the AL in runs scored with the second worst batting average. They face a Cleveland team that is worse, ranked 12th in the AL in runs scored with no power, just 26 homers in their first 43 games. At least both teams have veterans going who are in a groove. Mark Buehrle has a 3.27 ERA his last three starts while Jake Westbrook has a 2.70 ERA during that same time. Look for a pitcher's duel, play the White Sox/Indians Under the total.
EZWINNERS
San Francisco Giants -1.5
The Nationals starting pitcher Luis Atilano had been a pretty good as well as lucky in his first five starts this season, but his luck finally ran out on Thursday as he was handed a loss by the Mets. The six earned runs Atilano allowed to New York raised his ERA from 3.90 to 5.06 and now has more walks (19) than strikeouts (15) on the season. The Giants Tim Lincecum is coming off of his worst start of the season in his last outing at Arizona. Lincecum pitched just five innings, allowing five earned runs on five hits, including a two run homerun by Mark Reynolds. Lincecum was lucky to escape with a no decision but he is still 5-0 on the season with an ERA of only 2.35 and I expect him to bounce back with a solid performance in this game. The Nationals are only 2-12 in the last fourteen meetings between these two teams. Play San Francisco on the runline.
Brad Diamond Sports
St. Louis over San Diego
I’m all over lefty Jamie Garcia (4-2, 1.28) of the Cardinals who has a solid 2.08 ERA on the road in 2010. In his last five starts the youngster has given up just 4 earned runs. Opposing, hurler Kevin Correia (4-4, 4.57) of San Diego has had a fine year, but the Padres have lost his last three starts, two against the hot Dodgers. Life time Correia is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA versus St. Louis. So, with San Diego 0-4 versus port siders and 21-60 overall versus St. Louis, the play is the talented visitor.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley has allowed 3 runs total in his last 3 starts all of which were wins. The Dodgers are 17-5 their 22 games overall. Los Angeles is 6-0 their last 6 road games and they are 6-2 vs. NL Central teams. The Dodgers are 4-1 their last 5 games with the Cubs. Chicago starter Tom Gorzelanny is 2-5 in his starts this year. The Cubs are 19-39 their 58 games as home underdogs. Chicago is 2-7 in the last 9 starts made Gorzelanny.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
We’ll back Francisco Liriano and the Minnesota Twins at home tonight against Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees. Liriano is coming off a rough stretch against some quality lineups, but we think here at home he’ll settle down and shut down the Yankees. He’s already off to a great start here at home, owning a 2.14 ERA in three starts, and the Twins are dominant here at Target Field with a 14-7 mark. Plus, they are 9-0 as a home favorite of -150 or less. Twins beat the Yanks!
Play on: Minnesota Twins
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
We get a solid number with the Dodgers on Wednesday. They dropped the opener of this series last night as Ryan Dempster completely shut down the offense by tossing eight innings of shutout ball and ruining another solid performance from Clayton Kershaw. The loss was the second straight for Los Angeles but it is certainly no time for panic as prior to this, it had won 14 of its previous 16 games so after a slow start, the Dodgers are right back in the thick of things. They trail the surprising Padres by just two games and could definitely get the winning streak going again. The Cubs are playing much better as well, going 7-2 over their last nine games. The pitching has been the backbone as the offense continues to struggle. Chicago has scored more than five runs only once during this recent stretch and going back further it has averaged a mere 3.85 rpg over its last 20 games. Catching elite pitchers in the underdog role is always a great situation and it is even better when that pitcher struggled and has once again found his groove. That often leads to value and that is the case tonight with Chad Billingsley. He started the season with three straight non-quality starts thus producing a 7.07 ERA to begin the season. He has now allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, posting a 2.39 ERA over those six trips. That has lowered his ERA to 3.66 on the season and now faces a Cubs team where he has a 3.54 ERA in five career starts including a 2.77 ERA in three starts at Wrigley Field. He is opposed by Tom Gorzelanny who is pitching extremely well also. He has a 3.09 ERA on the season but the Cubs are just 2-6 in his eight starts as he has gotten little run support from the anemic offense. Chicago is just 1-3 in his four home starts as he has posted a 4.50 ERA in those games. The Cubs are just 5-14 in their last 19 games against solid starters whose WHIP is between 1.25 and 1.35. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers
LEE KOSTROSKI
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
Hisanori Takahashi made his first start for the Mets last week and he delivered on the biggest stage, pitching six shutout innings against the Yankees. Takahashi has been a successful reliever for the Mets and he proved he could go the distance in that outing. For the year he owns 38 strikeouts in just 32 innings of work and opponents are hitting .219 against him. He has also allowed just one home run this season. The Mets have also featured one of the better bullpens in the NL with a 3.37 season ERA, down to 2.72 in home games.
While the Mets have been near or below .500 most of the season, New York has been very tough to beat at home. A 6-14 road record is weighing down the overall record but the Mets are 16-9 at home entering this series including wins in 12 of the last 16 games. The Mets are hitting .268 in home games and .260 in the last ten games, numbers that are superior to what Philadelphia has done in that span despite the contrasting perceptions of the offensive capability of these teams.
Joe Blanton continues to post average numbers as he has done much of his career. Blanton has made just four starts after missing April due to injury and he has allowed at least three runs in every outing. He generally keeps extra runners off the bases but is susceptible to extra-base hits, including allowing five home runs in his four outings. The Philadelphia bullpen has been successful this season but the Mets are likely to have chances early in this game with Blanton on the mound.
In the last ten games the Phillies are batting just .237 against right-handed pitching and entering this series the Phillies had scored just 15 runs in the previous six games. Entering the series the Mets and Phillies had identical scoring numbers for the past seven games but the Mets are allowing just 3.3 runs per game at home this season, while scoring nearly five runs per game. That home field edge should not be overlooked and the potential of Takahashi is there to deliver an excellent start while Blanton has been consistently mediocre.
BEN BURNS
Nationals @ Giants
PICK: Giants -1.5
I won with the Giants yesterday and with their ace on the mound, they've got an excellent shot at another victory. Indeed, this should be a major pitching mismatch.
Lincecum comes off a rare bad start. However, he's still 5-0 with an outstanding 2.35 ERA on the season. In 61 innings, he's got 75 K's. In four home starts, he's gone 3-0 with an awesome 1.78 ERA and 0.923 WHIP, averaging greater than 7 1/2 innings in those starts. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .171 in those games.
The Giants are 11-3 in Lincecum's last 14 home starts. Ten of those 11 victories came by a minimum of two runs.
It should also be noted that Lincecum is 1-0 with a 1.77 ERA in three starts vs. the Nationals.
After getting roughed up last time out, Atilano now has a poor 5.06 ERA and 1.719 WHIP on the season.
The Giants are now 12-2 their last 14 games against the Nats. Ten of those 12 victories came by a minimum of two runs. Consider SF on the run-line.
BIG AL
Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Houston Astros
Houston's veteran righthanded starter Roy Oswalt has made his feelings known and those feelings are that he wants to be traded by the only Major League team he's ever played for. Oswalt, who is owed $31 Million over the next two years on his current contract, must feel that he is a much better pitcher than his 2-6 record, and indeed his 2.66 ERA (10th in the National League) would seem to indicate that. He obviously wants to play for a winner, and unless about 28 other Major League Teams quit the season right now, that isn't going to happen with the Astros. So look for Oswalt to have his absolute best stuff on display in his next few starts as some teams with perhaps deeper pockets than others take a close look at the 32-year-old. Meanwhile lefthander Chris Narveson, who recently was awarded the fifth starter spot for Milwaukee is hoping to improve on his previous two home starts, both of which were losses (one against the Pirates and the other against the Phillies) and neither of which lasted past the 6th inning. The Brewers continue to be horrible at home (4-14 heading into Tuesday's games) and their closer situation is still up in the air. Take the Astros.