Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -135
I'll fade the Blue Jays' worst starter in Brandon Morrow tonight as the Angels win Game 3 of this series Wednesday. Morrow is 3-4 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP for the season, 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.091 WHIP on the road, and 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.314 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Over his last 3 outings, Morrow has allowed 14 earned runs and 27 base runners in 11.2 innings.
Joel Pineiro of the Angels has been solid this season at home, posting a 2.34 ERA and 1.154 WHIP through 5 home starts. The Angels are 29-10 against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 3 seasons. The bats came out to play last night as the Angels torched the Blue Jays 8-3. I look for Los Angeles to continue their success at the plate tonight against Morrow. In fact, the Angels are 36-14 against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. So after an offensive explosion, they tend to come back and win their next game 72% of the time over the last 2 years. Take the Angels Wednesday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta –1½ +1.26 over FLORIDA
Tommy Hanson allowed a career-high eight earned runs in a career-low 1 2/3 innings in his last outing against the Reds. He said his stomach had been bothering him a day or two before that start. By the time he got to the mound Thursday, trainers think he was battling dehydration.
“I was dizzy and really light-headed,” Hanson said. “I would look down and Mac (Brian McCann) would kind of be blurry and weird. I’d take steps and my body wasn’t feeling right. And then you go out there, and you’re trying to make pitches and hit a spot.” Hanson said he spent the next couple of days drinking Gatorade and water and eating salty foods to balance out his electrolytes and is feeling back to normal. For him to go out there under those conditions is just more proof of how fierce a competitor Hanson is. He’ll bounce back today and he couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent. You see, Hanson is a strikeout pitcher (116 in 127 IP) and the Marlins have struck out 368 times, which ranks them 26th in the majors. Prior to that last start, Hanson had an ERA of 2.88 and in his first year against the Marlins last season he went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He’s better this year. Nate Robertson is living on the edge – the edge of being yanked from the rotation. Robertson is a horrible pitcher with very little upside. He walks as many as he strikes out and has walked four or more in four of his last seven games. Over his last six games he’s allowed a ton more flyballs than groundballs (67/45) and that combo of walks and fly balls has disaster written all over it. Robertson is going to get absolutely crushed very soon and this could be the day. Play Atlanta –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets +1.06 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies could be all screwed up due to the fact that they’ve faced back-to-back knuckleballers and it might be the first time in history that has occurred. Anyway, the Phillies have lost three in a row and were shutout twice over that stretch. Joe Blanton is about as average as they come. He will never dominate anyone and he’ll can be counted on to allow anywhere between 3 and 6 runs every start. He’s also allowed five jacks in 26.1 frames since coming off the DL. The Mets have woken up with four wins in five games and that includes two wins over the Yanks and last night’s series opening win over these Phillies. Hisanori Takahaski held the Yankees scoreless through six innings Friday. He struck out five and walked one. The pressure of a spot start against the Yankees in the Subway Series did little to faze Takahashi, who baffled the Yankees with his herky-jerky delivery and wide array of pitches. He already has 38 k’s in 32 innings and you might not see him in the bullpen again. He’s wickedly good and it sure helps that the Phillies are off-balance to begin with and they’ve never seen this guy. Wrong side favored. Play: NY Mets +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.13 over BALTIMORE
Trevor Cahill (52 BPV, 2-3-2-4-4 PQS) is trending the right way in recent starts, at least for a ground ball/pitch-to-contact pitcher. He has a 70% GB rate over his last three starts (19.1 IP, 15H, 6 ER). And last year he posted a 156 BPV in two starts against the O’s, a team with a .699 OPS this season. It’s also worth noting that the A’s are 9-4 in Cahill’s last 13 starts. Brian Matusz has pitched well at home and had a nice game against Oakland in mid-April, but he's had problems in recent starts that come from all over the place, from home runs allowed, to poor control, to not missing enough bats. Matusz has allowed 24 hits over his last 12 innings and his BAA in four May starts is an alarming .361. There is no doubt the value here is on the A’s. Play: Oakland +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
Spartan
STL (-114) vs SDP
The Cardinals, after roaring out of the gate like a Derby winner have been stumbling along like a drunken Clydesdale of late. Despite having what might be their strongest rotation in years the Cardinals have been basically inept at the plate of late. Last night was no different as they wasted an excellent effort by Adam Wainright and dropped the series opener to the surprising Padres 1-0.
Tonight they send young Jaime Garcia to the hill to try his luck. Garcia has clearly been the most pleasant surprise for Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan this season as he has started out 4-2 with a stellar 1.28 era. What I like most about Garcia, and I have watched every single start he has made, is just how competitive this guy is. He fully expects to get the job done and absolutely loathes allowing runs. I think he is the right guy in the right spot tonight to get this series evened up. Obviously the Cardinals will have to do something to give the kid some support and I expect just enough off Padres starter Kevin Correia. The heart of the Birds order, Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday are a combined 11-33 lifetime when facing Correia with 5 extra base hits. The under is tempting as well but I feel the side play is our best option tonight. I have a difficult time seeing the Padres knocking off Wainright and Garcia on back to back nights.
JR O'Donnell
ORL -4 vs BOS
I feel that you can and should wait till game time to grab this side as the line will mostly drop. How about the pure fact that the Magic are smooth 70% run and also a 75% ats winner since March 31st. I an actually see a 10 to 15 point Magic win here boys. Let's ride Philly boys J. Nelson and Superman Dwight Howard to the promised land tonight. To win in the NBA you have to think outside the box and the Magic tonight are ready to make Paul Pierce and his statement sweat again tonight.
ROCKETMAN
Houston @ Milwaukee
Play: Houston +105
Milwaukee is 5-14 this year when playing at home. Houston does have one small bright spot for the season as they have a winning record of 9-7 against division opponents. Milwaukee bullpen has been awful with a 6.01 ERA overall this year and a 6.92 ERA at home this season. Roy Oswalt has a 2.66 ERA overall this year, a 1.29 ERA on the road this season and a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Chris Narveson has a 5.17 ERA in all games this year and is 0-1 with a 5.90 ERA at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Brett Atkins
Made it three straight free winners on Tuesday when the Suns took Game 4 over the Lakers in Game 4 of their Western Conference Finals series. Tonight I'm coming with a baseball freebie as I play the Astros on the road in Milwaukee.
Roy Oswalt on the hill for the Astros tonight as he’s looking for a trade, so you know he’ll come strong tonight in what turns out to be an audition for a new team.
He’s just 2-6 on the season but his ERA is an outstanding 2.66 and on the road it’s a stellar 1.29. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start this season and in his last two roadies he’s allowed just two runs in 14 innings. Houston has beaten the Brewers in four of his last five starts dating back to 2007.
On the hill for Milwaukee is Christopher Narveson who is 0-1 at home this season with a 6.46 ERA.
Neither one of these two teams have played all that well this season but Oswalt is angry and looking for a trade, so he’ll be on top of his game to impress the possible teams looking to make the swap. Go with the Astros and Oswalt..
3♦ HOUSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Nailed the FREE play winner on Tuesday with the Padres as they edged the Cardinals in San Diego. It improved my comp record to 101-81-3. Tonight I have another baseball winner as I grab the plus-money with the Red Sox as they battle the Rays in Tampa.
Boston has taken the first two games of this series and just like the last few seasons, once the interleague season rolls around they seem to turn it on. They took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend and now two straight in Tampa, including Tuesday’s 1-0 win with Jon Lester on the hill.
Tonight, they’ll get it done with John Lackey (4-3, 5.07 ERA) on the hill opposite the Rays’ Matt Garza (5-2, 2.37). The road team has won all six games between these two this season and Lackey will get it done here tonight.
Lackey faced the Rays back on April 19 in Boston and got knocked around pretty good, allowing eight runs on nine hits in 3.1 innings of an 8-2 loss. He knows that happened and he’s looking for some payback tonight. As a starter with the Angels, he led them to seven wins in eight starts from 2004 to 2008, limiting Tampa to two runs or less in six of the eight games.
Garza was a tough-luck loser on Friday, allowing two runs on six hits in eight innings of a 2-1 loss in Houston. In his last two home starts against the Red Sox, he’s allowed six runs on nine hits in 13.2 innings. The Rays have had some luck with him on the hill against Boston, winning eight of his last 10 outings.
The Sox have won seven of eight overall and five of six on the road, plus six of eight against A.L. East teams. Tampa is just 1-5 in Garza’s last six outings after four days off and 0-4 in his last four against a winning team.
Boston is playing some outstanding baseball lately and look for them to keep it going tonight. Grab the plus-money and play the Red Sox.
2♦ BOSTON
GREG SHAKER
Chicago WhiteSox -112
A Lot of handicappers monitor line movement to determine where both the smart and weak money is going but that is just not as important in MLB due to a number of factors, which include, but not limited to the low volume that this sport has at the various shops. This one opened near ot at the -120 mark and as I type, is heading downward. I might wait a bit to see of I can get a better number but I do like the one posted. The White Sox Thrower today has to be able to spot the ball well in order to be successful. Buehrle is not going to K many batters and he simply makes you hit the ball where he wants you to. That is, he does when he is Throwing well. Is he throwing well right now? Well he certainly last game to the hill and this guy is one of the streakiest throwers in either league. I am not a big proponent on "Past History" when it does not apply and it does not here. The Indians are not a good lefty hitting squad and so much so, that Hafner is slated for a rest. That's a big cog out of the lineup for a team that is clearly already offensively challenged. The Indians Pen continues to be very iffy, the Sox Pen is coming in of late with strong performances and has had great success away from Chicago. The Sox are on a 10 game Over .300 BA verses righty's and that along with what I think to be a better chance of our starter and our second line throwers doing a better job today puts me on this early play. My Model agrees and tells me that our team will win 61.2% of the time, with a 1.4 overall variance in runs scored. That's pretty strong right there.
INSIDER ANGLES
Game 4 of this series between the Boston Celtics and the Orlando Magi was the first game of the series to go Over the total, and even that game needed overtime to go Over by just one point!
That said, we do look for a much faster paced contest in Game 5 with the change in venue to Orlando. Like many people, we left the Magic for dead when down 0-3 in this series with Game 4 in Boston, especially the way Orlando just quit after falling behind early in Game 3. Instead, Orlando shocked many by turning in their best performance of the series, especially offensively, as their 44.6 percent shooting percentage was their highest of the series.
They now get an unexpected chance to atone for their first two losses in this series here at home, and with their newfound confidence, we look for a more consistent performance from start to finish.
They even made 10 three-pointers Monday night, including two huge treys from Jameer Nelson in the final two minutes of overtime to seal the win. With Nelson, J.J. Redick and the resurrected Rashard Lewis all heating up, we expect the Magic to have their highest scoring game of the series Wednesday night.
Even with that, it would still not guarantee a victory over a Boston team that won two games on the road this series after winning two games in Cleveland vs. the mighty Cavaliers last series. Thus, even if the Magic do have as much success as we expect, we look for the Celtics to match them point for point, making for a higher scoring game than this low total would suggest.
In fact, this is the lowest posted total of the first five games, and with the Under being 4-0 during regulation time over the first four games, we feel this total is deflated to the point where the Over now holds some value.
Pick: Celtics/Magic Over 186
LARRY NESS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The Padres beat the Cards last night 1-0 with Garland out-dueling Wainwright. I guess the low-scoring game shouldn't have come as a surprise with the Padres owning the NL's best ERA (2.96) and the Cards right behind them at 3.03. Jamie Garcia gets the call for St Louis tonight with Kevin Correia going for the Padres. Garcia was drafted by the Cardinals in the 22nd round of the 2005 MLB draft but didn't make his major league debut until July of 2008. He made 10 appearances (one start) with a 5.62 ERA but in early September found out he needed "Tommy John surgery." He missed most of the 2009 season, finally returning to action in the minors during September of last year. However, Garcia earned a spot in the Cardinals starting rotation this spring and he's really pitched well. He's allowed a modest 36 hits in 49.1 innings and just seven ERs (1.28 ERA). He's 4-2 but the team a disappointing 4-4 in his eight starts (considering his ERA). He'll be opposed by Kevin Correia, who entered last year with a 14-22 (4.59 ERA) career mark since 2003, in 170 appearances (46 starts). He had a breakout season for the Padres in 2009, making 33 starts and going 12-11 (3.91 ERA). The Padres would win 11 of his final 16 starts and Correia finished with a plus-$856 moneyline mark (19-14 in starts), the sixth-best mark among 2009 starters. However, Correia has not been able to match last year's success. He's lost his last three starts (5.71 ERA) and enters this game 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA. Give the edge to Garcia and play the Cards.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Astros +107
Reasons the Astros win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - poor NL offensive team (=5.00), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. This is a 38-11 ML System hitting 77.6% and gaining 31.6 units since 1997.
2.) Wrong team favored tonight as we back the much better starter in Roy Oswalt of the Astros, who has posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 9 starts this season. Oswalt has been at his best on the road, with a 1.29 ERA and 0.786 WHIP away from home. Chris Narveson gets the ball for Milwaukee, who has posted a 5.17 ERA and 1.593 WHIP this season. Narveson has been at his worst at home, sporting a 5.90 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in home starts in 2010. Bet the Astros on the road.
Black Widow
1* on Florida Marlins +128
Florida is showing excellent value as a nice-sized home underdog Wednesday. Tommy Hanson has cooled off for the Braves and he comes into this game with little confidence. Hanson has allowed 13 earned runs and 17 base runners in 8.2 innings over his last 2 starts. The Marlins are 13-10 at home this season, hitting .279 and scoring 5.6 runs/game. The Braves are 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Marlins are 54-35 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is just 3-14 (-12.4 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -149
After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Rays to bounce back strong behind Garza tonight. The Rays are 9-2 in Garza's last 11 starts vs. the Red Sox and a perfect 7-0 in hiss last 7 home starts vs. Red Sox. Garza has flat out been a Red Sox killer in his career with an 8-2 lifetime mark (12-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.71. Lackey clearly isn't in the form we have been used to seeing him in out in L.A. He's carrying an ERA of over 5.00 on the season and it's up to 7.50 over his last 3 starts. Tampa Bay has had some struggles at the plate since an electric start, but it is an impressive 26-6 in home games after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 5.2 to 3.4 in these games. Look for the Rays to get to Lackey tonight and for Garza to take care of the rest.
Tony George
ST LOUIS -116
Garcia toes the rubber for the Cards tonight with a 1.28 ERA oin the year and the Cards off a hard fought 1-0 loss last night to the Padres. I like them in bouceback mode tonight with an ace pitcher on the hill with redemption on the mind of the Cards. Both bullpens are excellent, and neither team lighting up the plate so the under 6.5 might be worth a look as well, I just have a gut feel here that Garcia goes 6 or 7 innings deep and gets the Cards set up for the win. Play a half unit.
Freddy Wills
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers will get a start from their south paw here tonight in Narverson who has struggled to go deep into games. I believe this is a great opportunity for him as the Astros have a putrid .178 average and are scoring just 1.80 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP. Roy Oswalt will go for the Astros, but the line which opened with him as a favorite has now turned into the Brewers as favorites. There is a reason why and they are 19-7 at home vs. the Astros in the last 26. They are coming off a night where they had 12 hits and look to start to get hot at home against a bad team.