Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday May, 30

Hollywood Sports

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies (26-23) have won 11 of their last 12 road games with Cliff Lee facing a team with a winning record. This is not surprising given the fact that the left-hander owns a 1.57 ERA along with a 0.96 WHIP and .213 opponent's batting average on the road so far this season which are all better marks than his 3.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .235 opponent's batting average when at home. Furthermore, Philadelphia has won 5 straight road games with Lee pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He should fare well against a New York team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against a left-handed starting pitcher. And Philly has won 8 of their last 9 games with Lee pitching as a favor in the -110 to -150 price range. Philly has also won 7 of their last 9 road games even after their 6-3 loss in New York against the Mets yesterday. New York (28-22) counters with Dillon Gee who is 4-3 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season. But while Gee sports a 3.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .250 opponent's batting average when on the road, these numbers rise to a 5.93 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .300 opponent's batting average at home this season. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Gee pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And while Gee scattered just four hits and one earned run in 7 innings of work in his last start against the Padres, New York has lost 9 of their last 11 games when Gee was looking to follow up a Quality Start. Given that the deeper sabermetrics for both starting pitchers as well a set of additional team trends support our intriguing team trend regarding the Phillies proclivity to win on the road with Lee on the mound, expect these trends to continue in this one. Take Philadelphia with the money line while listing both starting pitchers Cliff Lee and Dillon Gee.

Matt Fargo

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

This is a good spot for the Phillies to bounce back from their loss last night. They came into last night riding a 5-1 run over their last six games so a victory here will provide a big boost heading home with two big series' on deck. Philadelphia is just four games back in the National League East so despite a very rocky start to the season, it is far from out of anything as the injuries have not completely taken them back. The Phillies are 26-7 in their last 33 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Mets are one of many surprise teams in baseball this year and their win last night moved them to 7-3 over their last 10 games and got them back to within a game and a half of the Nationals in the division. New York has been solid at home with a 16-10 record but the offense remains a liability as the Mets are hitting just .243 at home which is tied for third lowest in the National League. Coming off a win, the pitching has not carried the momentum as they have a 4.73 team ERA. Philadelphia looks to get a win for Cliff Lee who is winless on the season so far. He is 0-2 and the Phillies are 2-5 in his seven starts but it has been far from his doing as he has posted a 2.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in those seven games. Poor run production has been the culprit but that should change tonight. Lee's ERA drops to 1.57 on the road but his three starts have resulted in a 0-0 record. The Phillies are 11-1 in his last 12 road starts against teams with a winning record. The Mets counter with Dillon Gee who has been very inconsistent so far this season. He has tossed two straight quality outings but his ERA still sits at 4.92 to go along with a 1.38 WHIP. Only two of his five starts at home have been quality efforts and because of this, his ERA there is 5.93 with the Mets going just 1-4 in those five games. Putting together a streak of quality games has not been accomplished of late and the Mets are 2-9 in Gee's last 11 starts following a quality outing in his last appearance.

Steve Merril

Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Over 8.5

Two struggling pitchers take the mound in Anaheim on Wednesday night as the Angels host the Yankees. Ervin Santana is 2-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 starts; he allowed 4 runs, four hits, and seven walks in five innings in his last start. He lost to the Yankees back in April after giving up 5 runs and six hits. He lost two straight starts at home to the Bronx Bombers last year after giving up 9 runs in those two games combined. Robinson Cano (11-34), Eric Chavez (11-31), Derek Jeter (17-41), Russell Martin (6-20) and A-Rod (12-34) hit the Angels’ starter well. The Yankees are putting up over 5 runs per game in their last eight games while hitting right around .270 this season. The Angels’ bullpen has close to a 50% save percentage so the late innings can be an adventure for them. Ivan Nova has been very hittable this season. He is 5-2 with a 5.47 ERA in nine starts giving up 71 hits in just 56 innings. Nova managed to allow 3 runs and six hits to light-hitting Oakland in his last outing. He has given up 13 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts overall. Nova beat the Angels back in April, but he allowed 4 runs and eight hits in the process. He is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Angels. Peter Bourjos (4-5), Chris Ianetta (3-5), Maicer Izturis (3-6), Howard Kendrick (2-6) and Mark Trumbo (4-8) have good numbers against the Yankees’ starter. The Angels are hitting right around .280 at home and they are putting up runs right now. This game has slugfest written all over it so we’ll look for a high-scoring game between the Yankees and Angels.

Rob Vinciletti

Cardinals vs. Braves
Play: Over 8

This game fits a nice totals system that has won 14 of 19 times. We want to play the over for home teams with a total of 8 or less off a 1 run home win if they scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a 1 run road loss and scored 4 or less runs and had 10 or more hits and 1 or less errors. These games average a shade over 10 runs. Both teams have elevated bullpen era/s. Braves over 5 at home and Cardinals over 5 on the road. The Cardinals have flown over in 20 of 27 in May and 8 of 10 this year vs winning teams. They are averaging over 5 runs per game the past week. Atlanta is scoring 5 runs per game at home and has gone over 8 of 11 as a home favorite from -100 to 125. In the series 8 of the last 9 have played over the total. Lohse goes for St. Louis and he has a mediocre 4.56 era vs the Braves. He takes on T.Hudson tonight. Hudson has not been good vs the Cardinals. He has allowed 14 runs in 17 innings against them and has gone over 8 of 9 times in games he starts against them. With the system and all these over angles, we will play this one over the total.

Jesse Schule

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Seattle Mariners

Yesterday I gave you Seattle as an enormous UNDERDOG against the Texas Rangers, and they delivered by winning 10-3, cashing in HUGE! Well I am going to go with the Mariners again while they are hot, and they are an even bigger dog today.

The Mariners will hand the ball to Irving Texas native Blake Beavan, who is 2-4 with a 4.38 ERA. The 23 year old Beavan has only had the chance to play in his home state in front of friends and family once previously in his career, and he was very impressive. He allowed just one run in 6 1/3 innings, but lost 1-0 on April 10.

"I'm still excited to pitch here, but it's not like the first time," Beavan told the Mariners' official website. "I'm really focusing on going out and putting up good quality innings and making good quality pitches and keeping our guys in the game."

Beavan is coming off a solid outing in his last start versus the Angels, he allowed three runs on five hits in seven innings, his only mistake was a costly one, resulting in a three run homer by Albert Pujols. He has given up three runs or less in eight of his nine starts this season, although he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts.

It isn't going to be easy for the M's, going up against Derek Holland of Texas, who is 4-0 in his last five starts against Seattle. That being said, the price is right to warrant a bet on Seattle to notch back to back upset victories at the Ballpark in Texas.

Ben Burns

Washington @ Miami
PICK: Miami

The Marlins have been pretty good to me of late. I won with them to go "under" (3-2 final) in Sunday's finale vs. San Francisco. I then proceeded to successfully play on them on both Monday and Tuesday, the first two games of this 3-game set vs. Washington. Miami won by scores of 5-3 and 3-1. I feel that this evening's matchup should provide the Marlins with an excellent shot at completing the series sweep and finishing off their very strong May (they get 5/31 off) with a victory.

Admittedly, Johnson's numbers aren't that good yet this season. However, he's been coming around lately. Over his last three starts, Johnson is 2-0 (Marlins are 3-0) with a 2.84 ERA.

Before getting too down on Johnson, lets keep in mind that he's still an extremely impressive 50-26 with a rock solid 3.24 ERA for his career. At home, he's 26-14 for his career. In 412 innings here, he's got 419 K's, a 2.93 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Johnson should be happy to see Washington. He's a perfect 7-0 in 14 career starts vs. the Nationals. He's got a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in those games with Washington batters hitting only .214 against him.

Wang will be making his first start of the season. He's been on the disabled list and has only pitched once in relief this year. He's only making the move from the bullpen to 5th starter due to the recent struggles of Ross Detwiller.

The Marlins are having a great month and have a lot of positive momentum. All things considered, I feel the price is reasonable. Consider laying the wood.

Sean Murphy

White Sox @ Rays
PICK: Under 8

Last night's game between the White Sox and Rays crept 'over' the total thanks to a five-run sixth inning from Chicago. Remember, the opener of this series totaled just three runs on Monday.

It's worth noting that Chicago has scored in only four of 18 innings so far in this series, and has struck out 21 times compared to only four walks. Despite last night's seven-run effort, there's reason to believe that this White Sox offense is beginning to cool off after going on a ridiculous tear.

Of course, the Rays remain ice cold at the dish, having scored only three runs in the first two games of this series, and nine over their last four games combined. They're hitting just .211 as a team, and averaging 3.6 runs per nine innings over their last 10 ball games.

Note that the 'under' is 14-10-1 in White Sox road games this season, and 14-10-2 in all Rays home games.

Jose Quintana will get his second career start for the White Sox on Wednesday. He looked sharp in his last outing, allowing only four hits and two earned runs over six innings against the Indians. With the Rays slumping at the dish, he draws another favorable matchup today.

Working behind Quintana is a White Sox bullpen that has been terrific on the road this season, recording a collective 2.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Alex Cobb will counter for the Rays. He's faced a couple of tough matchups in his first two starts this season, having gone up against the Braves and Red Sox. He's actually fared quite well, giving up only nine hits and three earned runs in 12 innings of work. What I really like about Cobb is his ability to keep the ball in the yard. He's allowed only three home runs in 64 2/3 innings since reaching the majors last season.

The Rays 'pen hasn't been quite as sharp as the White Sox, but does bring solid current form to the table, having posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over the last 10 games.

The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this series, and an incredible 34-16-1 in their last eight matchups here in St. Petersburg. Look for those trends to continue this afternoon.

Bryan Power

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers

After losing three in a row, including the first two games of this series, I expect the Dodgers to get back on track this evening behind Clayton Kershaw, who checks in with a 0.79 ERA his last three starts. Last night was the first loss of the season for Los Angeles in 14 tries as a home favorite of -125 to -175, but that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from installing them as an even larger favorite tonight thanks in large part to Kershaw, who has a 17-2 team start record in the -150 to -200 price range.

Milwaukee is a curious opponent for the Dodgers to be losing to right now, given that the Brewers are typically not a good road team, still just 10-15 with 3.5 runs scored per game. They are also only 5-8 vs. lefties, so facing Kershaw will probably be a problem. Going back to last season, Milwaukee is just 15-33 as a road underdog.

Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo has never beaten the Dodgers in five starts with a 6.54 ERA. He hasn't been nearly as impressive as Kershaw this season as the Dodgers starter has a 1.97 ERA in 10 starts overall.

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers and Red Sox meet in Game Three of this four game series in Boston Wednesday evening when Drew Smyly opposes Jon Lester at Fenway Park. Lester toes the rubber knowing he is 0-4 in his career team starts in this series. The lefty is also 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA at home this season. With that look for the Tigers to improve to 4-2 away behind Smyly here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Freddy Wills

Oakland A's vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Oakland A's

Tyson Ross has been pretty good this year and posts a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts combined. The Twins only have 4 AB against him and he'll make a day start where he has a 2.95 ERA this year. The A's overall are 8th with a 3.59 day ERA while the Twins struggle with a 5.40 ERA which is last in the league. Their starting pitcher won't help with that stat on Wednesday, but we will get to that shortly. Tyson Ross primarily throws fastball and slider where the Twins are ranked 24th in the league against both those pitches. He's been unlucky thus far with a .365 BABIP and 68% LOB so I feel that luck is due to turn around on Wednesday during a day start where he also posted an ERA under 3.00 last year. It helps the Twins are 16-36 in their last 52 home vs. RH starter and 14-41 in their last 55 overall.

Liriano is big on the list for pitchers to fade. He has a 5.29 ERA during his last 25 day starts before this year as well as a 5.09 ERA during the month of May over that period of time. He started this year giving up 4 ER or more in all six of his starts before being moved to the bullpen where he walked 7 batters in 7.1 IP. In his most recent outing he gave up 4 ER in 2.2 IP out of the pen. Moving him back to the rotation won't make a difference as Oakland is a much better hitting team vs. LHP scoring 4.55 runs per 9 on the road while the Twins are at just 3.76 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP. The main difference is pitching and not only do the A's have the advantage on the mound early they post a 2.70 bullpen ERA on the year to the Twins 3.86.

Notable Hot Starters:
Jeanmar Gomez (2-1, 1.11 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
A.J. Burnett (3-0, 1.24 WHIP, 1.86 ERA)
Josh Johnson (3-0, 1.26 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Lucas Harrell (2-1, 1.23 WHIP, 1.93 ERA)
Ervin Santan (2-1, 1.39 WHIP, 2.89 ERA)
Yovanni Gallardo (2-1, 1.14 WHIP, 1.86 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 0.91 WHIP, 0.78 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Wednesday's pitching report marks the most cold starters we have had with ERA's over 6.00 all season long. Our featured cold starter though has got to be Johny Cueto who posts a 6.89 ERA over his last three starts. He has a stiff test going up against A.J. Burnett who has been one of the best, but in his last 4 starts at Pittsburgh he's given up just 3 ER in 30 innings. The Pirates struggle to score runs and I think Cueto should be able to shut them out once again.

Notable Cold Starters:
Brandon Morrow (1-2, 1.43 WHIP, 7.36 ERA)
Drew Smyly (1-2, 1.57 WHIP, 6.75 ERA)
Christian Friedrich (1-2, 1.65 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Ivan Nova (2-1, 1.42 WHIP, 6.38 ERA)
Ian Kennedy (0-3, 1.62 WHIP, 6.75 ERA)
Tim Lincecum (0-3, 1.68 WHIP, 7.56 ERA)

Dave Cokin

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: New York Yankees

Not easy to play into a red hot Angels team, but Ervin Santana is very streaky and his own hot run ended last start. I'm taking the Yankees and Ivan Nova to get this one in the win column.

Jim Feist

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Detroit offense can use some help such as playing in a small park and that's what they get here in Fenway Park. They face up and down lefty Jon Lester (3-4, 4.72 ERA) who has a 5.68 ERA his last three starts. The Red Sox are still dealing with injuries, especially to the outfield, and they are 4-10 in Lester's last 14 starts. Their offense faces a good pitcher in Detroit's Drew Smyly (2-1, 3.14 ERA) who has been impressive and the Red Sox have never faced him. And the Red Sox are 0-4 in Lester's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. Play the Tigers.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ Boston Over 177: I'm going to go right back to the Over in this one, despite losing on the Over in game 1. For much of game 1 the teams were on pace for 180+ points as they were running a bit, but then from the later part of quarter 3 on the Celtics forgot how to score and the game landed at 172 points. That still not much off of tonight's total and I feel the game will also be a bit closer so we should get the FT's at the end as well. Miami home games have averaged 188.4 ppg this year, while Boston's road games have averaged 183.3 ppg, so 180+ is more than possible for this one. During the regular season, both games played here between these teams put up 222 points and while I don't expect that many points in this one, I do expect both teams to push tempo and have the scoring well into the 180's.

MATT RIVERS

Now let's get to a comp play for Wednesday night, and how can I not like the under in the Eastern Conference Finals?

Monday's game did not come close to heading over the total, as the Celtics and Heat held under by a good three baskets. That means that the under between these two teams has now gone 3-1 the last four times this year the teams have played.

That also means that Boston is on a 6-4 under roll their last ten this playoff season, including playing their last three this postseason under the posted price.

As for Miami, the Heat has played four of their last seven and seven of twelve overall this playoff campaign under the total.

Until I see the Celtics actually get out and run the floor for some consistent transition baskets, my inkling is to stick to this being a low-scoring games one more time.

Miami "D's" it up again, and Game Two also lands under the total.

2♦ UNDER