SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) at Phoenix (5-2 SU and ATS)
The third-seeded Suns aim to maintain home-court advantage when they take on the seventh-seeded Spurs in Game 2 at U.S. Airways Center.
Phoenix blew a couple of double-digit leads in Game 1 Monday night, but finished strong to claim a 111-102 victory as a four-point home favorite. Steve Nash had 17 points in the first quarter on the way to a 33-point night, and he added 10 assists. Amare Stoudemire (23 points, 13 rebounds) also had a double-double, and Jason Richardson poured in 27.
San Antonio shot a respectable 45.8 percent (38 of 83), but hit just 4 of 19 from three-point range (21.1 percent) and missed nine of its 31 free throws (71 percent), while allowing the Suns to shoot a solid 51.9 percent (41 of 79). Manu Ginobili paced the Spurs with 27 points, Tony Parker had 26, and Tim Duncan had 20 points and 11 boards.
San Antonio is 22-23 SU and ATS on the road this season (1-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs), putting up an average of 97.0 ppg (45.4 percent shooting) and yielding 95.9 ppg (44.4 percent shooting). Phoenix is 35-10 (28-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys (3-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs), scoring a whopping 112.3 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting and allowing 102.6 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting.
Phoenix has cashed in all four meetings this season in this rivalry (3-1 SU), winning and covering in all three contests in the desert. The favorite and the home team are both 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the SU winner is 14-1-1 ATS in the last 16 Spurs-Suns matchups. These two teams met in the first round two seasons ago, with the Spurs advancing 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS), and in the second round three years ago, with San Antonio winning in six games (3-2-1 ATS).
The Spurs remain on ATS upticks of 21-10-1 overall, 8-2 after either a SU or an ATS setback and 9-3-1 after a day off, but they’re also 1-4 ATS in their last five on the highway and 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a playoff pup.
The Suns are on several spread-covering sprees, including 30-11-1 overall, 16-5-1 at home, 17-5 against the Southwest Division, 21-7-1 as a favorite, 16-6-1 after a spread-cover and 34-16-1 after a day off.
In this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings overall, including all four this season, with Monday’s game clearing the 204½-point price. The over has also hit in the last four contests at U.S. Airways Center. In addition, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 6-2 at home (4-1 last four, with all eight as a chalk), 11-4 in second-round playoff games and 10-4 against the Southwest Division, but the under for the Suns is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 after a day off and 9-4-1 following a spread-cover.
Meanwhile, despite the Game 1 result, San Antonio remains on a bundle of “under” streaks, including 6-1-1 overall, 8-2-2 on the highway, 5-0 following a day off, 4-1 in second-round playoff games, 4-1-1 as a ‘dog, 8-2-1 as a playoff pup and 13-4-2 getting points on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (18-9) at Philadelphia (15-11)
Veteran right-hander Brad Penny (3-1, 1.56) looks to continue his strong start to the season when he takes the ball for the Cardinals and goes opposite the Phillies’ Kyle Kendrick (0-1, 7.61) in the third game of a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park.
St. Louis took the opener of this series 6-3 on Monday, but Philadelphia even things up with Tuesday’s 2-1 victory. Catcher Carlos Ruiz provided all the offense, with a sacrifice fly in the seventh inning to break a scoreless tie, followed by a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th.
Despite Tuesday’s victory, the Phillies have still dropped nine of their last 16 contests since starting the season 8-2, going 3-4 at home during this stretch. However, they remain on positive runs of 36-18 against the N.L. Central (6-2 last eight), 12-5 versus right-handed starters and 8-1 at home against righties.
Although the Cardinals’ three-game winning streak ended last night, they still sport the best record in the National League, having won eight of 10 overall. St. Louis is on additional solid runs of 7-2 as a favorite, 6-1 versus N.L. East foes, 5-0 in the third game of a series, 16-5 versus right-handed starters and 20-8 on the road against righties.
These teams faced off just five times last year, with the Phillies winning four of the five contests, and going back to 2008, Philadelphia has won nine of the last 12 series clashes, going 5-2 at home. In last year’s four wins over St. Louis, the Phillies tallied 39 runs, but they’ve scored just five times in this series.
Penny is coming off a tough 3-2 home loss to Cincinnati – his first defeat of the season – giving up three runs on eight hits in six innings. In his previous six starts – including the first four this season – Penny had allowed a total of four earned runs in 45 innings (0.79 ERA). Furthermore, he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 outings dating to September.
Penny is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in three road starts this season, and he’s 9-4 with a 3.48 ERA in 21 career starts against the Phillies, including 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three contests at Citizens Bank Park. Last year with the Giants, he faced Philadelphia once and pitched eight shutout innings in a 4-0 road victory. Penny has given up one or zero runs in five of his last six starts against the Phillies since 2005.
Kendrick’s struggles continued in Friday’s 9-1 home loss to the Mets, yielding four runs on five hits in five innings. Take away one strong outing in Atlanta (eight shutout innings) and Kendrick has surrendered 20 runs (all earned) in his other four starts covering 15 2/3 innings (11.49 ERA). Philadelphia is 1-5 in the right-hander’s last six starts overall and 0-6 in his last six when pitching on four days of rest.
In two home starts this season, Kendrick has given up 10 runs on 11 hits and four walks in 16 1/3 innings (13.50 ERA). On the bright side, he’s dominated St. Louis in three career starts, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, with the Phillies scoring 46 runs in the three victories.
St. Louis brings a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 9-2-1 overall, 9-3 on the road (5-0 last five), 8-3 against the N.L. East, 14-3-1 versus winning teams and 19-7-2 on Wednesday. Also, all five of Penny’s starts this year have stayed under the total.
On the flip side, it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia, including 36-18-2 overall, 16-7-2 at home, 8-4 against N.L. Central teams, 4-1 on Wednesday, 13-3 in the third game of a series and 32-13 in Kendrick’s last 45 starts overall.
Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight Phillies-Cardinals clashes at Citizens Bank Park (2- in this series) following an 11-2-2 “over” run in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-16) at Boston (13-14)
John Lackey (2-1, 4.50) faces his former team for the first time he leads the Red Sox against the Angels and Joel Pineiro (2-3, 5.76) as two struggling squads continue a four-game series at Fenway Park.
After getting swept by the Orioles in Baltimore over the weekend, Boston has returned home and taken two straight from the Angels by a combined score of 22-9. In Tuesday’s 5-1 victory, the Red Sox scored four runs in the eighth inning to break a 1-1 tie. The Sox have won six of their last eight home games and nine of their last 12 on Wednesday, and they’re also 107-50 in their last 157 home games against right-handed starters.
Los Angeles has dropped the first five games of a 10-game road trip, getting outscored 40-18, and it has dropped nine of 13 overall dating to April 21. However, the Halos are still on positive runs of 24-6 after losing the first two games of a series, 49-20 in the third game of a series and 37-18 against teams with a losing record.
The Angels swept a best-of-5 divisional playoff series against Boston last year and they’re still 12-9 in the last 21 meetings. Also, the home team is 8-2 in the last 10 in this rivalry following an 8-3 run by the visitor.
Pineiro got completely destroyed at Detroit on Friday, giving up 10 runs (nine earned) in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-6 loss. After starting his Angels career with three straight outstanding outings (four runs allowed n 20 1/3 innings), Pineiro has fallen apart in his last two starts against the Yankees (7-1 home loss) and Tigers, yielding 16 runs (15 earned) on 21 hits in 9 1/3 innings (14.46 ERA).
Prior to Friday, Pineiro’s only previous road start came at Yankee Stadium on April 14, and he gave up a run on five hits in seven innings of a 5-3 win. Against the Red Sox, the veteran right-hander is 3-5 with a 6.24 ERA in 10 starts (1-3, 5.36 ERA in five starts at Fenway). Boston is 6-2 the last eight times it has faced Pineiro.
Lackey, who spent his first eight big-league seasons with the Angels before signing with Boston this past offseason, has delivered quality starts in four of his first five appearances with the Red Sox, most recently giving up three runs (two earned) in seven innings at Baltimore on Friday. However, he failed to get a decision as the Red Sox lost 5-4 in 10 innings.
Boston has alternated wins and losses in Lackey’s first five starts this season, and the big right-hander is 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA in two contests at Fenway Park.
L.A. is on “under” runs of 23-7 on the road, 14-4 versus losing teams, 9-1-1 on Wednesday and 16-5-1 in the third game of a series. However, Boston is on “over” streaks of 5-3 at home, 4-2 against the A.L. West, 20-8-2 on Wednesday and 2-0-2 with Lackey starting.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
DUNKEL INDEX
San Antonio at Phoenix
The Spurs look to bounce back from their 111-102 loss in Game 1 and build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game. San Antonio is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3)
Game 713-714: San Antonio at Phoenix (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.696; Phoenix 124.837
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3); Over
MLB
Detroit at Minnesota
The Tigers look to bounce back from back-to-back losses and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games after dropping the first two games of a series. Detroit is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+140)
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.171; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.872
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Under
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.417; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.215
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); Under
Game 905-906: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Penny) 16.428; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.721
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.490; Washington (Atilano) 16.130
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Over
Game 909-910: San Francisco at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.900; Florida (Robertson) 15.748
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Under
Game 911-912: Arizona at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 13.848; Houston (Myers) 13.544
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under
Game 913-914: Colorado at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.976; San Diego (Richard) 16.760
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Over
Game 915-916: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Davis) 14.553; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.817
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+165); Under
Game 917-918: Toronto at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 15.944; Cleveland (Carmona) 13.967
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Over
Game 919-920: Detroit at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 17.058; Minnesota (Slowey) 15.917
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+140); Under
Game 921-922: Texas at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.299; Oakland (Cahill) 14.413
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under
Game 923-924: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 14.382; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.575
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-280); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-280); Over
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 14.852; Boston (Lackey) 14.114
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+160); Over
Game 927-928: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 15.138; White Sox (Garcia) 15.798
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Over
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.887; Seattle (Lee) 15.499
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under
NHL
Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130)
Game 71-72: Boston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.676; Philadelphia 13.372
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-155); Over
Game 73-74: Chicago at Vancouver (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.082; Vancouver 12.469
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130); Over
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Braves send Tommy Hanson to the mound in the nation's capitol against Luis Atilano and the Nationals in Game Two of their three game visit knowing Hanson owns a 2.28 ERA in four career teams in this series with four walks against 30 strikeouts. On the flip side, whole Atilano is 2-0 in his two starts this season despite the fact he has issued five walks against two strikeouts in those efforts. With that look for Hanson and the Braves to knock off the Nats tonight.
MATT FARGO
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Kansas City Royals
We won with the Royals last night and we will come back with them again tonight for a smaller play. After last night’s victory they are very respectable 7-7 on the road this season and even though they are 11-15 overall, they have won money oval thanks to some very big prices and tonight is no exception. Luke Hochevar pitched a great game last night and I expect another big performance from Brian Bannister tonight. Through five starts, he has a 3.48 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with four of those games being quality efforts. Take away the one bad game where he allowed six runs in 5.1 innings against Toronto and his ERA drops to 2.10 in those other four games. Most impressive is the fact those four games came against the Tigers (twice), Twins and Rays, all extremely potent offenses and tonight he faces a White Sox offense hitting .227 on the season which is worst in all of baseball. He squares off against Freddy Garcia who is winless on the season through four starts. Two of his four outings have been quality performances with both of those coming at home so he is definitely pitching better at U.S. Cellular Field but that is negated with his track record against the Royals which is surprisingly bad. He is 8-13 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a .317 average in 25 career starts against Kansas City. Since 2006 it is even worse as in six starts he is 0-6 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP covering 32.2 innings. Play against American League favorites with a moneyline between -125 and -175 that has a bullpen whose WHIP is between 1.35 and 1.45 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season. This situation is 38-18 (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. That is a great percentage and in reality it is better since it is an underdog situation that has netting +33 Units in those 56 games. 3* Kansas City Royals
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have C.Lee making his second start of the season tonight. In his first start he picked up where he left off last year. Lee was dominating. He went 7 innings without allowing a run and surrendering just 3 hits. Tonight he takes on Tampa. In his last 3 starts vs the Rays he has been sensational, going 21 innings allowing just 3 earned runs and pitching to a 2.32 era overall. Tampa Bay has M.Garza making the start tonight, and while he has been good this year, he has been awful vs Seattle. Garza has a 9.17 era vs Seattle and has given up 15 earned runs, 25 hits and a whopping 5 home runs in just 10+ innings vs the Mariners. Tampa Bay has not won the last 3 years when the posted total is 7 or less in road games. The Mariners also have a solid 1.97 home bullpen era and are the beneficiaries of a road favorite system that plays against Tampa Bay tonight. The system pertains to the Rays win last night that saw then score 5 or more runs with 10+ men left on base. Look for Seattle to end their home losing streak here tonight behind C.Lee.
Jim Feist
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9½
Yankee stadium is a great hitter's park and the Bronx Bombers are in the middle of a 6-game home stand. They started 3-0 over the total on this stand, too, as the bats have exploded. Baltimore got its offense rolling in a three-game sweep of the Red Sox, including a 12-9 shootout. Starter David Hernandez is struggling with control, walking 15 in 27 innings with a 4.55 ERA and an 0-3 record. You can't walk batters in this park or you'll pay for it. Look for an offensive show, play the Orioles/NY Yankees Over the total.
JR O'Donnell
CHC -1.5 (-108) vs PIT
Pirates Charlie Morton toes the rubber tonight owning a close to 13 ERA dead last in ERA against the visiting Cubbies who left 12 runners on base in last night's loss. NOT tonight boys! The Cubbies have been pounding the rock . 307 batting average and they have plated close to 6 runs per game the last 10. Morton will get bombed today as the Cubbies get back a much needed "W" behind Lilly who will look to bounce back off a poor D Backs game.We are not a big fan of "Run Line"plays, but this baby is a flat out Wand we will not pass up the nasty Cubbies vs the Pirates "C Morton" on the mound. The Cubbies are off an ugly loss.
Scott Spretizer
Tigers at Twins
Play: Over
Porcello and Slowey have both truly struggled in key categories this season. Porcello has been horrible in every key category I use in my handicapping, while the Minnesota righty has not been able to find his groove in afternoon outings. In fact, Slowey has fared poorly in daytime starts over the last few years, and he's had his problems with the Tigers. Detroit has pounded righthanders in road day action this season, averaging 5.8 rpg in four tries. The Twins are scoring 5.43 rpg at home against righties, after averaging 5.5 rpg in home day games against righthanders a season ago. Obviously, they're no longer playing under the dome, but the results have been pretty much the same at the plate. I expect "the same" to continue today with a high-scoring game.
Freddy Wills
NY Mets vs. Cin Reds
Play: NY Mets
I like the Mets here off a big win last night to take the series from the Reds with this day start from Niese. Niese has really come into his own and I've been really loving this kid. He'll go up against Cueto and a heavy hitting Reds team, but the Reds are scoring just 2.89 runs per 9 in their last 5 vs. LHP. Cueto does not have a good history against the Mets where he has 3 career starts with a total of 15 IP, 23 hits, 8 BB and 16 ER. I don't expect the Mets to beat him up quite as much, but enough to support Niese. The Reds are 1-7 in their last 8 starts with Cueto on 4 days rest and he's struggled to open the year. The Mets have a .311 average vs. Cueto combined and he had a 5.16 ERA at home last year.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
We’ll back Seattle behind Cliff Lee here in this small underdog role tonight. All Lee did in his first start of the season was pitch seven scoreless innings, allowing just three base hits in the process. Unfortunately, Lee couldn’t get any run support and the Mariners ended up losing. Seattle’s batting lineup will feel obligated, if nothing else, to support Lee here after wasting last week’s pitching effort.
Play on: Seattle Mariners
Steve Merril
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
Seattle is glad to see Cliff Lee back from the DL as he picked up right where he left off last season. Lee went seven strong innings giving up three hits while striking out eight against Texas in his comeback start. The lefty is 6-2 with a 2.32 ERA against the Rays but he hasn't faced them since 2008. He defeated them twice that year giving up just two runs and 13 hits in 13 innings of work. Carlos Pena (5-22), Carl Crawford (3-18), Dioner Navarro (0-10), Evan Longoria (1-7), Ben Zobrist (1-6) and Gabe Kapler (0-5) all struggle hitting the ball against Lee. Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza has struggled mightily when pitching in Safeco Field. The righty is 1-1 with a 9.17 ERA in four starts against Seattle. Garza gave up five runs and 10 hits in 5.7 innings of work in his last start in Safeco in 2008. Ichiro (4-11), Milton Bradley (3-10), Chone Figgins (4-9), Jose Lopez (4-9), Franklin Gutierrez (4-8) and Casey Kotchman (2-5) all hit the right hander well. We expect Cliff Lee will continue his outstanding pitching against the Rays, and also expect Garza’s struggles to continue, so we’ll back the home team in this spot.
Rocketman Sports
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Texas Rangers
Texas is 42-20 the past 3 years when playing in May. Texas bullpen has a 3.44 ERA overall this year and a 2.38 ERA on the road this season. Colby Lewis is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA overall this year, 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA on the road and 1-0 with a 3.10 ERA his last 3 starts. Trevor Cahill is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA overall this season. Lewis is 2-0 overall vs Oakland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Texas today!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -151
The Cubs are worth paying this price today when you consider their dominance over Pittsburgh and how poorly Charlie Morton has performed on the mound. Over the last 3 seasons, the Cubs are 24-9 against Pittsburgh, including 12-4 in road games. The Pirates send Morton to the hill and he is off to a horrid 0-5 start with an ERA of 12.57. His home ERA stands at 45.00 after getting lit up by the Brewers. Ted Lilly was brilliant in his first start of the season, allowing only 3 hits and holding Milwaukee to zero runs in his 6 innings of work. His second start of the season wasn't nearly as good, but we know what we can expect from Lilly, and I expect him to bounce back strong tonight. After all, the Cubs are a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 starts when he gets 5 days of rest. They are also 16-5 in his last 21 starts when he pitches game 2 of a series. I'll back Lilly and the Cubs tonight.
Bryan Leonard
Kansas City at Chicago
Both starting pitchers have struggled against tonight's opponents but we like the way Brian Bannister has pitched this year. All but one of his starts have been of the quality variety with a loss to the hard hitting Blue Jays in Toronto being the only blemish. He has allowed only six earned runs in the other four games and we can't see this weak Chicago batting order having much success against him. His last three starts came against Toronto, Minnesota and Tampa Bay, so he's stepping down a bit in class for this one.
Freddy Garcia has more lives than a cat as he continually looks to be on his way out of the league yet he remains on a major league roster. He's battled injuries and lack of production the past three seasons to limit himself to just 94 innings of work over that span. He hasn't had much success against the Royals over the years with a whopping 7.96 ERA his last five starts against them. His teams failed to win any of those five starts.
Chicago is just 7-7 on the season at home and 7-11 this year against right-handed starters. They are just 4-6 the last ten games hosting Kansas City. The wrong team is favored here as Kansas City takes the series from the White Sox.
PLAY KANSAS CITY
Jorge Gonzalez
Chicago Cubs -1½
The Chicago Cubs will taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a day game o the Cinco de Mayo. The Cubs offense will be looking to feast on a Pirate pitching staff that has struggled with a team ERA of 6.60. The Pirates may be sending their worst pitcher to the mound in Charlie Morton ( 0-5, 12.57). The Cubs will counter by sending the veteran southpaw Tom Lilly to the mound (1-1,4.91). The Pirates won the first game of the series 3-2. The Cubs struggled with men in scoring position and left 12 men on base. The Cubs have been hitting a robust .308 and scoring 5.9 runs per game over their last 10. The Pirates offense has struggled over the same period of game scoring just 3.20 runs per game. The Cubs are 6-0 when the total is set between 9.0-10.5 while the Pirates are 0-6 when Morton is on the mound for the Pirates. The Cubs are 5-0 when Lilly has five days rest and the Pirates are 0-8 when Morton is pitching on four days rest. Take the Cubs -1.5 runs.