Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -151
Look for the Cubs to bounce back strong in Game 2 of this series after yesterday's 1-run defeat. Chicago certainly has the edge on the mound tonight with Lilly as Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton enters this contest 0-5 with an ERA of 12.57. The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh and 27-9 in the last 36 meetings overall. They are also 5-2 in Lilly's last 7 road starts vs. the Pirates. In addition, the Cubs are 5-0 in Lilly's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Cash in with the Cubs.
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Braves -141
The Atlanta Braves 23 year old ace starting pitcher Tommy Hanson has been pitching very well this season posting a 2.17 ERA and he has done very well in four starts previously against Washington. Hanson is 2-0 in those four starts against the Nationals with and ERA of only 2.28. The Nationals, will counter with rookie Luis Atilano. Atilano has gone six innings and earned the victory in each of his first two big league starts this season, but he has had some control problems as he has issued five walks in twelve innings. He may very well pitch a solid game here against the Braves, but I just don't expect Washington to give him the run support to win this game. Tommy Hanson has four legit pitches in his arsenal and I expect him to keep the Washington lineup quite today. Play on Atlanta.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.09 over CLEVELAND
Note the 12:05 PM EST start. The Jays are looking better each day while the Indians are looking worse and Cleveland surely does not have an edge on the mound today either. The fact that they’re favored here is ludicrous. Brandon Morrow allowed 12 earned runs over his first two starts but since then, he’s yielded just five earned runs in 19 innings for an ERA of 2.37. Over that three-start stretch, Morrow has struck out 25 batters and that includes nine punch-outs in his last outing, a six-inning, two-walk, two-run stint against Oakland on 4/30. Fausto Carmona was rocked for six runs on eight hits in his last outing. He’s also been very luck with a high strand rate and that’s not going to last. Carmona has issued 14 walks while striking out 15 and that’s a ratio that screams failure. Carmona has a career ERA of 4.65 and he’s facing one of the hottest teams and offenses in the game. In fact, the Jays have won five of its last six and has scored 38 runs in those five wins. Four weeks into the season Cleveland is mired in a tie for the AL’s lowest-scoring offense. The Indians are averaging 3.4 runs per game on a weak .678 OPS and they’re facing a guy with tons of potential that is very quickly finding his groove. Play: Toronto +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.26 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
At the end of the day both the South Side and the Royals will very likely be somewhere around .500 in terms of wins and losses. Right now they have the exact same record at 11-16 and you simply cannot give an edge to the White Sox in this game. When a game is about as even as it gets and the there’s a decent take-back on one side, the value is on that side. Both Freddy Garcia and Brian Bannister could go seven strong or they both can be gone by the fourth inning. However, Garcia’s control is not nearly as good as Bannister’s and the Royals offense is very capable of making him pay. Furthermore, in three road starts this season, Bannister has a BAA of .188 and that’s after seeing three strong offenses in Detroit, Toronto and Tampa Bay. The only real advantage the South Side has is in the pen so with that in mind, we’ll try to eliminate that and the play the Royals in the first five innings. Play: Kansas City +1.26 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
NY METS +1.19 over Cincinnati
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. Far too often Johnny Cueto of the Reds is up over 20 pitches per inning and when a pitcher throws that many pitches in a single inning consecutively, disaster is ready to strike. In his first three starts of the year, Cueto threw 110, 109 and 103 pitches respectively and only once did he make it to the sixth inning. He has good stuff but he’s also very erratic and he surely his confidence against the Mets can’t be high. In two starts vs the Mets, Cueto has given up four jacks in 15 innings. He’s also been tagged for 23 hits and 16 earned runs for a BAA of .375 and an ERA of 9.60. His 5.33 ERA this season is shaky at best and he’s fighting the strike zone. All these things add up to a guy that can’t be trusted laying juice, especially when he’s throwing for a team whose offense is scuffing badly. Jonathan Niese is coming off a great start in Philly, a seven-inning, seven-strikeout effort while walking just one batter. Niese has allowed just two earned runs over his last 18 innings and his only rough start of the year was when he pitched at Coors. Niese has been rock solid while Cueto has not and there is just no way you can make an argument for laying juice with the Reds. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
VANCOUVER -½ +1.17 over Chicago
The Blackhawks somehow managed to wake up in game two about 10 minutes into the game when they were down 2-0. They rallied to win but in both games in Chicago they came out of the gate very slowly and that’s a troubling sign. In fact, one could argue that the Blackhawks are very fortunate that they’re not down 0-2 in this series. Now the venue switches to Vancouver, where the Canucks are deadly and where they won 30 games this season, the most in the NHL. The Canucks have put together a terrific game plan and they have to be feeling pretty damn good about taking the first game 5-1 and nearly taking game two. Confidence is high and now they’ll have home ice advantage where the place will be absolutely electric. Playing in Nashville and winning is one thing but playing in Vancouver and winning is quite another, as the Blackhawks are about to find out. Yes, Chicago is an elite team but Antti Niemi is hit and miss and has allowed far too many goals in this years playoffs. Against the Preds he allowed four goals in three of the six games and the Blackhawks surrendered five in the first game of this series. That’s not conducive to winning playoff hockey and now they’ll face an offense that was second in the NHL in goals scored. Play: Vancouver -½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.42 over PHILADELPHIA
The Flyers were able to beat the Devils because of bad goaltending and because New Jersey could not score. None of those things apply to the Bruins and now the Flyers find themselves down 2-0 and in a heap of trouble. Regardless of what happens here, the Bruins are way undervalued. They beat a Sabres team that was considered to have the best goaltender in the league. The Bruins had lots of trouble scoring during the regular season but Claude Julien, the Bruins coach, said that the team actually had a lot more chances to score this year than they did last year but ran into hot goaltenders and some bad luck. That has all changed and now scoring goals is not a concern. Philly comes in with a lot of pressure and a goaltender that was walking on water in the first series but not in this one. In fact, one could argue that all three goals that the Bruins scored in the last game were very stoppable. Furthermore, the Flyers are now without two snipers in Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne and that surely can’t help its chances. Finally, the Bruins have a real hate for the Flyers because of Daniel Carcillo, a guy that plays dirty and keeps trying to show up the referees with his embellishing tactics. As Don Cherry pointed out last night in “Coaches Corner”, the refs hate to be shown up and made fools of and Carcillo could be a huge liability in this contest because he’s going to get called for everything even remotely close to being a penalty. The tag only adds more appeal to this one. Play: Boston +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Sac Lawson
PHI (+105) vs STL
One of the most important things I've ever learned about betting baseball is the importance of being ahead of the curve. They say a good scout can tell you when a guy will have a bad start, not why a guy had a bad start. Fact is, a lot of people are going to see Penny's ERA and think the guy has been in great form. Some people may even notice the 8 hits and 5 walks and think: "Ehh, not great.. but he still only gave up 3 runs and went 6 innings."
Here's the thing about that; Anytime a guy gives up more walks in one start than he has all season (5 v. 3) you've gotta be truly alarmed. And anytime he has three straight games where he gives up 8 hits, you've gotta be equally alarmed. Penny is showing all the indicators of a bad stretch. We saw this exact same thing with Derek Lowe of the Braves, a sinker baller giving up more hits and walks than usual, but squeeking out wins regardless. It caught up to Derek Lowe, and it'll catch up to Brad Penny as well. I realize that Penny has had some career success against the Phillies, but this is the last team on earth you want to face when you're not on top of your game, and all the indicators tell us that this is a great spot to sell high on Penny, especially knowing we have the most explosive lineup in baseball on our side.
On the other side, quoting Kendrick's ERA is pointless. We all know it's bad, but is he pitching poorly? NO, flat out NO. Anyone who tells you to fade Kendrick because of his ERA has simply not watched the guy pitch this year. He's given up 20 runs in 5 starts total, but the fact is, he's given up 6 home runs. Including 5 in his last two starts. Not good, but what it tells me is that it's one mistake here and there that is getting him, not a poor body or work. I've seen the guy throw multiple times this season, and I feel confident backing him here. If he can avoid that ONE bad inning that he has been prone to, he'll be just fine. The guy has been money against St. Louis in his career.. 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA. That's enough for me.
You give me a pitcher that is pitching BETTER than stats indicate, not to mention has had great success against his opponent, and has the better batting lineup on his side.. against.. a pitcher that is showing all the indicators of going on a cold streak and a team that has had a hell of a time hitting with RISP....... I've simply gotta take Philly at this price.
SFG (-138) vs FLA
I know we're basically betting on San Francisco to win these three game series on the road against Florida, which my instinct tells me is not going to be a winning proposition long term, but fact is, it will win this time. San Fran is not a great road proposition in the first place, but Barry Zito in Florida, absolutely IS! Not only has Zito been legendary this season, but over the last three years, Florida is a team he's absolutely slaughtered. In 5 starts Zito is 4-0 with a 2.35 against the Fish, and 3-0 with a 0.98 at LandShark Stadium. I realize taking the Giants as this heavy road chalk is a bit scary, but I'll bank on Zito and that pen over any starter/pen combination Florida can come up with.....
And it just so happens the starter portion of that combo that Florida sends out today will not be a great one. Nate Robertson. Tough to argue that he's had a rough transition to life in Florida. Fact is, Robertson has gotten very little run support, but to the lineups defense it's not like the guy is making it out of the 6th inning anyways. Robertson has been putting plenty of stress on that Florida pen, and although they aren't as poor as they've shown at times this season, they certainly aren't fully dependable.
To be brief here. I like Zito, I like the Giants pen. Robertson is a guy that simply will not go deep into a game, and he's a guy that can easily give up 4 or 5 walks as well. The Giants are tough to back on the road, especially after winning last night, but if Robertson is putting people on base, the Giants will find a way to get Zito the 4 runs he needs. Count on that. 1 unit on the Giants!
Nelly
Milwaukee / Los Angeles Under
Any game involving Doug Davis will warrant a higher total but Davis could be a candidate to rebound from a very poor first month. The left-hander has an absurd 2.15 WHIP and an 8.87 ERA but he also has a 2.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he has only allowed three home runs. Davis has been burned by some bad luck with a lot of batted balls landing for hits and he has had to face a few tough match-ups so far this season. Davis will be comfortable at Dodger Stadium having played recently in the NL West and he delivered two excellent August starts against the Dodgers last season while playing with Arizona. Milwaukee's offense was shutout in three of four games in San Diego, winning only one game by a 2-1 final. The Brewers have been held to three or fewer runs in eight of the last ten games and if the big scoring games against Pittsburgh are taken out of the equation the Brewers have been one of the worst scoring teams in the NL. Los Angeles opened the season as a high-scoring team but this is a team that has played the Pirates seven times while also enduring high-scoring series with Arizona and Florida. The scoring numbers have dropped significantly for the Dodgers over the last two weeks. Chad Billingsley is also a much better pitcher than the early season numbers indicate. His last two starts have been excellent with just three runs and ten hits allowed and he enjoyed very strong May results last season. The 'under' is 7-3 in the last ten games for Los Angeles and this is an extremely high number for any match-up at Dodger Stadium, particularly one with Billingsley on the mound.
James Patrick Sports
Cubs vs. Pirates
Chicago has enjoyed and are in need of some games against the "Steel City Boys" as the Cubbies are (8-2) at Pittsburgh and (27-9) their past (26) meetings with the Bucos. Big Game James Patrick's Major League selection is Chicago Cubs in Wednesday Big League action.
Chuck O'Brien
Ten of 15 free-play winners after my Red Sox covered the run line against the Angels on Tuesday. Wednesday’s complimentary selection also comes from baseball, and I play the Giants and Barry Zito on the road at Florida.
I’m officially on the Zito bandwagon, and I only hope I didn’t wait too long. The former Cy Young winner, whose first few years in San Francisco ranged from mediocre to god awful, has rediscovered his filthy stuff, going 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his five April starts. He delivered a quality outing in all five contests, pitching at least six innings in every game and allowing two runs or fewer in four of the five. Also, Zito has been especially impressive in his two road starts (at L.A. and at Houston), allowing just one run on seven hits and two walks in 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA).
What’s been most refreshing about Zito is he’s finally keeping guys off base, giving up just 20 hits and 11 walks in 35 1/3 innings. Finally, take a look at what Zito’s done in his last four starts against the Marlins: two runs allowed in 26 2/3 innings (0.68 ERA), with the Giants winning 3-0, 2-1, 8-2 and 3-0. In fact, San Francisco is 5-0 all-time when Zito faces the Fish, including 3-0 in Florida.
As for Florida starter Nate Robertson, here’s all you need to know: In his last two starts, he faced two of the Giants’ N.L. West rivals (Colorado and San Diego) and he posted identical ugly results: five runs allowed in four innings, with the Marlins losing 8-1 (to the Rockies) and 6-4 (to the Padres).
One final point: Both Zito and Robertson are southpaws. Well, the Giants bat better than .300 against left-handed pitching this year, while Florida is hitting .266 versus lefties.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Bobby Maxwell
I've delivered four straight FREE winners and improved my comp record to 90-70-3 after Tuesday's easy NBA winner on the Magic as they crushed the Hawks. Tonight's freebie is a play on the Rockies on the road in San Diego taking on the Padres.
These two teams have split the first two games of this series, and while I know the Padres have been playing very good baseball lately, tonight they face one of their longtime old nemesis in Rockies’ righty Aaron Cook. This guy has absolutely dominated them over the last three years and he’ll do it to them again in San Diego tonight.
Cook is just 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA this season and a lousy 0-3, 8.79 ERA on the road, but he loves the chance to face the Padres. In his last 10 outings against them eight times he’s allowed two runs or less as the Rockies are 7-3 in those 10. In two starts at Petco Park in San Diego last season, he allowed two runs on 13 hits in 14 innings. In his last five outings in San Diego, dating back to 2007, Cook has allowed a grand total of 6 runs in 36 innings.
The Padres are 2-3 in Richard’s five starts this season with one of them coming April 9 in Colorado when he gave up three runs on seven hits in a 7-0 loss.
Colorado is 11-4 when Cook gets four days of rest, 11-5 when he faces a team with a winning record and 6-2 when he pitches the third game of a series. I’m going with him tonight in San Diego as he delivers another gem in Petco Park.
3♦ COLORADO
Brett Atkins
Scored the free winner for you on Tuesday night with the Phillies and tonight I'm right back in the National League with a comp play on the Rockies as they take on the Padres in San Diego.
You cannot go against veteran Rockies’ righty Aaron Cook when he takes the mound against the Padres. And in San Diego, the guy is dominant, allowing just six runs in his last 36 innings, covering five starts dating back to 2007.
Last season Cook pitched in San Diego twice and allowed two runs on 13 hits in 14 innings. The Rockies are on further runs of 11-4 when he gets four days of rest, 11-5 when he goes up against a team with a winning record and 6-2 when he pitches the third game of a series.
San Diego hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball, scoring five runs in the first two games of this series. Get the plus money and go with Cook tonight.
2♦ COLORADO
Jeff Benton
Wasn’t exactly close with Tuesday’s free play on the Hawks against the Magic. Still, I remain on runs of 68-39-2 and 29-17 with plays that I’m giving away! For Wednesday, we’ll head to matinee baseball and play the Rangers as a road favorite at Oakland.
I have no problem backing Texas right-hander Colby Lewis, who has been fantastic so far this season at 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA. In his most recent start on Friday, he tossed a complete-game three-hit shutout in Seattle, striking out 10 in a 2-0 road win. Lewis has now whiffed exactly 10 battlers in three of his last four starts, including the last two in a row, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio in those four starts is 35-9.
Lewis is one of those hurlers who is taken advantage of a second chance. From 2002-03, he appeared in 41 games with Texas, including 26 starts in 2003 when he went 10-9 but with an ugly 7.30 ERA. However, from 2004-09, Lewis made just 31 big-league appearances (four starts), including none the past two years. After a strong spring training this year, though, Lewis joined the big club and has proven he belongs.
Today, Lewis faces a weak-hitting A’s lineup that had produced 3, 3, 2, 4, 3 and 2 runs in six games (five losses) prior to last night’s 7-6 victory over Texas. Even with that win, Oakland is still just 3-7 in its last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rangers had a four-game winning streak (all on the road) snapped Tuesday, but they’re still 10-4 in their last 14 games.
Additionally, Texas is supporting Lewis with a whopping 5.6 runs per start, and now they get to feast on Trevor Cahill, who in his first big-league start of the season on Friday got pounded for eight runs (three home runs) in five innings of a 10-2 loss in Toronto.
5♦ TEXAS RANGERS
Stan Lisowski
St. Louis -115
The Cards are 16-5 against right-handed starters this season and 18-9 overall. Phils starter Kendrick has a 7.60 ERA while Philly has dropped 4 of his 5 outings. St. Louis is 8-1 off of a loss this year. Cardinal starter Penny is 9-4 lifetime against the Phillies.
John Ryan
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
5* graded play on Seattle as they host Tampa Bay set to start at 10:o5 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Seattle with Lee starting will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 47-19 making 27.8 units since 1997. Play on home teams where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season and after a game where they committed 4 or more fielding errors. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 32-10 making 21.5 units since 2004 for 76.2% winners. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season and after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games. TB has a solid bullpen and Seattle has done well against similar bullpens on other teams. TB is a solid 24-14 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. TB is a weak 4-13 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. TB starter Garza is in a very poor spot here noting he is just 9-21 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Take Seattle with Lee.
Wunderdog Sports
Spurs vs. Suns
Play: Over 205
Phoenix is purely an offensive team and has played OVER the total 63% of the time when it is posted at less than 210 at home. This season their home games averaged 215 points! The Suns hit 41% from beyond the arc and this season when facing a team that shoots 39%+ from long range, the Spurs are a perfect 8-0 OVER. When revenging a loss vs. an opponent, San Antonio is 28-16 OVER the past two seasons. I like this one to go OVER the total.
Tom Freese
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Chicago starter Freddie Garcia has allowed 8 runs total in his 3 starts this year. The White Sox are 4-1 their last 5 home games. The Pale Hose are 4-1 their last 5 games vs. a team with losing record. Chicago is 9-4 in the last 13 starts made by Garcia. Kansas City is 6-18 the last 24 starts made by Brian Bannister. The Royals are 18-38 their last 56 games off a win and they are 17-36 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game. The Royals are 1-6 in the last 7 road starts made by Bannister. PLAY ON CHICAGO
LARRY NESS
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
The Rockies won the opener of this three-game series 5-2 Monday night behind Ubaldo Jimenez. However, they were not able to hold a 2-1 late-inning lead last night, as the Padres rallied with single runs in the 8th and 9th to win, 3-2. The win ups San Diego's record to 11-4 at home this year, where the Padres are outscoring opponents 4.73-to-2.20 RPG. In contrast, the Rockies are just 6-9 on the road, where they have averaged a rather pathetic 3.87 RPG. Aaron Cook starts for the Rockies and the good news for Colorado fans is that he's 13-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 21 starts against the Padres, including 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last five at Petco Park. However, while Cook is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts this season at Coors Field (team is 2-0), he's 0-3 in three road starts, allowing 14 ERs in 14.1 innings (8.79 ERA). Then there is San Diego starter Clayton Richard. Richards was part of the Jake Peavy deal last summer and after coming to the Padres from the White Sox, was terrific here in Petco, going 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA in six starts (team was 6-0). He's continued his excellent pitching at home in the early going of 2010, posting a 2.63 ERA in three home starts. Doing the math, he's made nine home starts since coming to San Diego last year, going 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA (team is 8-1). I'll going with the home team.